Century-long butterfly range expansions in northern Europe depend on climate, land use and species traits.

Climate change is an important driver of range shifts and community composition changes. Still, little is known about how the responses are influenced by the combination of land use, species interactions and species traits. We integrate climate and distributional data for 131 butterfly species in Sweden and Finland and show that cumulative species richness has increased with increasing temperature over the past 120 years. Average provincial species richness increased by 64% (range 15-229%), from 46 to 70. The rate and direction of range expansions have not matched the temperature changes, in part because colonisations have been modified by other climatic variables, land use and vary according to species characteristics representing ecological generalisation and species interactions. Results emphasise the role of a broad ecological filtering, whereby a mismatch between environmental conditions and species preferences limit the ability to disperse and establish populations in emerging climates and novel areas, with potentially widespread implications for ecosystem functioning.

Associations of 16-Year Population Dynamics in Range-Expanding Moths with Temperature and Years since Establishment.

Parallel to the widespread decline of plants and animals, there is also an ongoing expansion of many species, which is especially pronounced in certain taxonomic groups and in northern latitudes. In order to inform an improved understanding of population dynamics in range-expanding taxa, we studied species richness, abundance and population growth in a sample of 25,138 individuals representing 107 range-expanding moth species at three light-trap sites in southeastern Sweden over 16 years (from 2005 to 2020) in relation to temperature and years since colonisation. Species richness and average abundance across range-expanding moths increased significantly over time, indicating a continuous influx of species expanding their ranges northward. Furthermore, average abundance and population growth increased significantly with increasing average ambient air temperature during the recording year, and average abundance also increased significantly with increasing temperature during the previous year. In general, population growth increased between years (growth rate > 1), although the population growth rate decreased significantly in association with years since colonisation. These findings highlight that, in contrast to several other studies in different parts of the world, species richness and abundance have increased in southeastern Sweden, partly because the warming climate enables range-expanding moths to realise their capacity for rapid distribution shifts and population growth. This may lead to fast and dramatic changes in community composition, with consequences for species interactions and the functioning of ecosystems. These findings are also of applied relevance for agriculture and forestry in that they can help to forecast the impacts of future invasive pest species.

Urban moth communities suggest that life in the city favours thermophilic multi-dimensional generalists.

Biodiversity is challenged worldwide by exploitation, global warming, changes in land use and increasing urbanization. It is hypothesized that communities in urban areas should consist primarily of generalist species with broad niches that are able to cope with novel, variable, fragmented, warmer and unpredictable environments shaped by human pressures. We surveyed moth communities in three cities in northern Europe and compared them with neighbouring moth assemblages constituting species pools of potential colonizers. We found that urban moth communities consisted of multi-dimensional generalist species that had larger distribution ranges, more variable colour patterns, longer reproductive seasons, broader diets, were more likely to overwinter as an egg, more thermophilic, and occupied more habitat types compared with moth communities in surrounding areas. When body size was analysed separately, results indicated that city occupancy was associated with larger size, but this effect disappeared when body size was analysed together with the other traits. Our findings indicate that urbanization imposes a spatial filtering process in favour of thermophilic species characterized by high intraspecific diversity and multi-dimensional generalist lifestyles over specialized species with narrow niches.

Faster poleward range shifts in moths with more variable colour patterns.

Range shifts have been documented in many organisms, and climate change has been implicated as a contributing driver of latitudinal and altitudinal range modifications. However, little is known about what species trait(s) allow for faster environmental tracking and improved capacity for distribution expansions. We used data for 416 species of moths, and show that range limits in Sweden have shifted to the north by on average 52.4 km per decade between 1973 and 2014. When also including non-expanding species, average expansion rate was 23.2 km per decade. The rate of boundary shifts increased with increasing levels of inter-individual variation in colour patterns and decreased with increasing latitude. The association with colour patterns indicate that variation in this functionally important trait enables species to cope with novel and changing conditions. Northern range limits also increased with average abundance and decreased with increasing year-to-year abundance fluctuations, implicating production of dispersers as a driver of range dynamics. Studies of terrestrial animals show that rates of poleward shifts differ between taxonomic groups, increase over time, and depend on study duration and latitude. Knowledge of how distribution shifts change with time, location, and species characteristics may improve projections of responses to climate change and aid the protection of biodiversity.

Variable coloration is associated with dampened population fluctuations in noctuid moths.

Theory and recent reviews state that greater genetic and phenotypic variation should be beneficial for population abundance and stability. Experimental evaluations of this prediction are rare, of short duration and conducted under controlled environmental settings. The question whether greater diversity in functionally important traits stabilizes populations under more complex ecological conditions in the wild has not been systematically evaluated. Moths are mainly nocturnal, with a large variation in colour patterns among species, and constitute an important food source for many types of organisms. Here, we report the results of a long-term (2003-2013) monitoring study of 115 100 noctuid moths from 246 species. Analysis of time-series data provide rare evidence that species with higher levels of inter-individual variation in colour pattern have higher average abundances and undergo smaller between-year fluctuations compared with species having less variable colour patterns. The signature of interspecific temporal synchronization of abundance fluctuations was weak, suggesting that the dynamics were driven by species-specific biotic interactions rather than by some common, density-independent factor(s). We conclude that individual variation in colour patterns dampens population abundance fluctuations, and suggest that this may partly reflect that colour pattern polymorphism provides protection from visually oriented predators and parasitoids.

With that diet, you will go far: trait-based analysis reveals a link between rapid range expansion and a nitrogen-favoured diet.

Recent global change has had a substantial influence on the distribution of organisms, and many species are currently expanding their ranges. To evaluate the underlying processes, long-term data with good geographic resolution are essential. One important but generally overlooked data source is offered by the taxon-specific national catalogues of first provincial records that are kept in many countries. Here, we use such data to quantify trait-based influences on range expansion in Swedish butterflies and moths between 1973 and 2010. Of 282 species meeting pre-defined quality criteria, 170 expanded their northern range margin, with a mean expansion rate of 2.7 km per year. The analyses demonstrate that habitat and diet generalists, forest species and species active during warm conditions have expanded their ranges more rapidly than other species. Notably, range expansion in diet specialists was positively related to a nitrogen-favoured larval diet, an effect not found among oligo- or polyphagous species. In contrast to the general view, this shows that specialist species can undergo rapid range expansion. We suggest that increased areas of nitrogen-rich habitat, and increased availability of a nitrogen-favoured diet, are among the most important drivers of range expansions, potentially having far-reaching consequences for a wide variety of organisms.

Species-area relationships are controlled by species traits.

The species-area relationship (SAR) is one of the most thoroughly investigated empirical relationships in ecology. Two theories have been proposed to explain SARs: classical island biogeography theory and niche theory. Classical island biogeography theory considers the processes of persistence, extinction, and colonization, whereas niche theory focuses on species requirements, such as habitat and resource use. Recent studies have called for the unification of these two theories to better explain the underlying mechanisms that generates SARs. In this context, species traits that can be related to each theory seem promising. Here we analyzed the SARs of butterfly and moth assemblages on islands differing in size and isolation. We tested whether species traits modify the SAR and the response to isolation. In addition to the expected overall effects on the area, traits related to each of the two theories increased the model fit, from 69% up to 90%. Steeper slopes have been shown to have a particularly higher sensitivity to area, which was indicated by species with restricted range (slope = 0.82), narrow dietary niche (slope= 0.59), low abundance (slope= 0.52), and low reproductive potential (slope = 0.51). We concluded that considering species traits by analyzing SARs yields considerable potential for unifying island biogeography theory and niche theory, and that the systematic and predictable effects observed when considering traits can help to guide conservation and management actions.