Responses of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) air quality to future climate, land use, and emission changes: Insights from modeling across shared socioeconomic pathways.

Air pollution induced by fine particulate matter with diameter ≤ 2.5 µm (PM2.5) poses a significant challenge for global air quality management. Understanding how factors such as climate change, land use and land cover change (LULCC), and changing emissions interact to impact PM2.5 remains limited. To address this gap, we employed the Community Earth System Model and examined both the individual and combined effects of these factors on global surface PM2.5 in 2010 and projected scenarios for 2050 under different Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). Our results reveal biomass-burning and anthropogenic emissions as the primary drivers of surface PM2.5 across all SSPs. Less polluted regions like the US and Europe are expected to experience substantial PM2.5 reduction in all future scenarios, reaching up to ~5 µg m-3 (70 %) in SSP1. However, heavily polluted regions like India and China may experience varied outcomes, with a potential decrease in SSP1 and increase under SSP3. Eastern China witness ~20 % rise in PM2.5 under SSP3, while northern India may experience ~70 % increase under same scenario. Depending on the region, climate change alone is expected to change PM2.5 up to ±5 µg m-3, while the influence of LULCC appears even weaker. The modest changes in PM2.5 attributable to LULCC and climate change are associated with aerosol chemistry and meteorological effects, including biogenic volatile organic compound emissions, SO2 oxidation, and NH4NO3 formation. Despite their comparatively minor role, LULCC and climate change can still significantly shape future air quality in specific regions, potentially counteracting the benefits of emission control initiatives. This study underscores the pivotal role of changes in anthropogenic emissions in shaping future PM2.5 across all SSP scenarios. Thus, addressing all contributing factors, with a primary focus on reducing anthropogenic emissions, is crucial for achieving sustainable reduction in surface PM2.5 levels and meeting sustainable pollution mitigation goals.

Impacts of changes in climate, land use, and emissions on global ozone air quality by mid-21st century following selected Shared Socioeconomic Pathways.

Surface ozone (O3) is a major air pollutant and greenhouse gas with significant risks to human health, vegetation, and climate. Uncertainties around the impacts of various critical factors on O3 is crucial to understand. We used the Community Earth System Model to investigate the impacts of land use and land cover change (LULCC), climate, and emissions on global O3 air quality under selected Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). Our findings show that increasing forest cover by 20 % under SSP1 in East China, Europe, and the eastern US leads to higher isoprene emissions leading 2-5 ppb increase in summer O3 levels. Climate-induced meteorological changes, like rising temperatures, further enhance BVOC emissions and increase O3 levels by 10-20 ppb in urban areas with high NOx levels. However, higher BVOC emissions can reduce O3 levels by 5-10 ppb in remote environments. Future NOx emissions control reduces O3 levels by 5-20 ppb in the US and Europe in all SSPs, but reductions in NOx and changes in oxidant titration increase O3 in southeast China in SSP5. Increased NOx emissions in southern Africa and India significantly elevate O3 levels up to 15 ppb under different SSPs. Climate change is equally important as emissions changes, sometimes countering the benefits of emissions control. The combined effects of emissions, climate, and land cover result in worse O3 air quality in northern India (+40 %) and East China (+20 %) under SSP3 due to anthropogenic NOx and climate-induced BVOC emissions. Over the northern hemisphere, surface O3 decreases due to reduced NOx emissions, although climate and land use changes can increase O3 levels regionally. By 2050, O3 levels in most Asian regions exceed the World Health Organization safety limit for over 150 days per year. Our study emphasizes the need to consider complex interactions for effective air pollution control and management in the future.

Wildfire-Derived Nitrogen Aerosols Threaten the Fragile Ecosystem in Himalayas and Tibetan Plateau.

Himalayas and Tibetan Plateau (HTP) is important for global biodiversity and regional sustainable development. While numerous studies have revealed that the ecosystem in this unique and pristine region is changing, their exact causes are still poorly understood. Here, we present a year-round (23 March 2017 to 19 March 2018) ground- and satellite-based atmospheric observation at the Qomolangma monitoring station (QOMS, 4276 m a.s.l.). Based on a comprehensive chemical and stable isotope (15N) analysis of nitrogen compounds and satellite observations, we provide unequivocal evidence that wildfire emissions in South Asia can come across the Himalayas and threaten the HTP's ecosystem. Such wildfire episodes, mostly occurring in spring (March-April), not only substantially enhanced the aerosol nitrogen concentration but also altered its composition (i.e., rendering it more bioavailable). We estimated a nitrogen deposition flux at QOMS of ∼10 kg N ha-1 yr-1, which is approximately twice the lower value of the critical load range reported for the Alpine ecosystem. Such adverse impact is particularly concerning, given the anticipated increase of wildfire activities in the future under climate change.

Nitrogenous and carbonaceous aerosols in PM2.5 and TSP during pre-monsoon: Characteristics and sources in the highly polluted mountain valley.

This study reports for the first time a comprehensive analysis of nitrogenous and carbonaceous aerosols in simultaneously collected PM2.5 and TSP during pre-monsoon (March-May 2018) from a highly polluted urban Kathmandu Valley (KV) of the Himalayan foothills. The mean mass concentration of PM2.5 (129.8 µg/m3) was only ~25% of TSP mass (558.7 µg/ m3) indicating the dominance of coarser mode aerosols. However, the mean concentration as well as fractional contributions of water-soluble total nitrogen (WSTN) and carbonaceous species reveal their predominance in find-mode aerosols. The mean mass concentration of WSTN was 17.43±4.70 µg/m3 (14%) in PM2.5 and 24.64±8.07 µg/m3 (5%) in TSP. Moreover, the fractional contribution of total carbonaceous aerosols (TCA) is much higher in PM2.5 (~34%) than that in TSP (~20%). The relatively low OC/EC ratio in PM2.5 (3.03 ± 1.47) and TSP (4.64 ± 1.73) suggests fossil fuel combustion as the major sources of carbonaceous aerosols with contributions from secondary organic aerosols. Five-day air mass back trajectories simulated with the HYSPLIT model, together with MODIS fire counts indicate the influence of local emissions as well as transported pollutants from the Indo-Gangetic Plain region to the south of the Himalayan foothills. Principal component analysis (PCA) also suggests a mixed contribution from other local anthropogenic, biomass burning, and crustal sources. Our results highlight that it is necessary to control local emissions as well as regional transport while designing mitigation measures to reduce the KV's air pollution.

Concentration, sources and wet deposition of dissolved nitrogen and organic carbon in the Northern Indo-Gangetic Plain during monsoon.

Precipitation represents an important phenomenon for carbon and nitrogen deposition. Here, the concentrations and fluxes of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) and total dissolved nitrogen (TDN) with their potential sources were analyzed in wet precipitation during summer monsoon from the Northern Indo-Gangetic Plain (IGP), important but neglected area. The volume-weighted mean (VWM) concentration of DOC and TDN were 687.04 and 1210.23 µg/L, respectively. Similarly, the VWM concentration of major ions were in a sequence of NH4+ > Ca2+ > SO42- > Na+ > K+ > NO3- > Cl- > Mg2+ > F- > NO2-, suggesting NH4+ and Ca2+ from agricultural activities and crustal dust played a vital role in precipitation chemistry. Moreover, the wet deposition flux of DOC and TDN were 9.95 and 17.06 kg/(ha⋅year), respectively. The wet deposition flux of inorganic nitrogen species such as NH4+-N and NO3--N were 14.31 and 0.47 kg/(ha⋅year), respectively, demonstrating the strong influence of emission sources and precipitation volume. Source attribution from different analysis suggested the influence of biomass burning on DOC and anthropogenic activities (agriculture, animal husbandry) on nitrogenous species. The air-mass back trajectory analysis indicated the influence of air masses originating from the Bay of Bengal, which possibly carried marine and anthropogenic pollutants along with the biomass burning emissions to the sampling site. This study bridges the data gap in the less studied part of the northern IGP region and provides new information for policy makers to deal with pollution control.

Nitrogen Speciation and Isotopic Composition of Aerosols Collected at Himalayan Forest (3326 m a.s.l.): Seasonality, Sources, and Implications.

Nitrogenous aerosols are ubiquitous in the environment and thus play a vital role in the nutrient balance as well as the Earth's climate system. However, their abundance, sources, and deposition are poorly understood, particularly in the fragile and ecosensitive Himalayan and Tibetan Plateau (HTP) region. Here, we report concentrations of nitrogen species and isotopic composition (δ15N) in aerosol samples collected from a forest site in the HTP (i.e., Southeast Tibet). Our results revealed that both organic and inorganic nitrogen contribute almost equally with high abundance of ammonium nitrogen (NH4+-N) and water-insoluble organic nitrogen (WION), contributing ∼40% each to aerosol total nitrogen (TN). The concentrations and δ15N exhibit a significant seasonality with ∼2 times higher in winter than in summer with no significant diurnal variations for any species. Moreover, winter aerosols mainly originated from biomass burning emissions from North India and East Pakistan and reached the HTP through a long-range atmospheric transport. The TN dry deposition and total deposition fluxes were 2.04 kg ha-1 yr-1 and 6.12 kg ha-1 yr-1 respectively. Our results demonstrate that the air contamination from South Asia reach the HTP and is most likely impacting the high altitude ecosystems in an accepted scenario of increasing emissions over South Asia.

Aromatic acids as biomass-burning tracers in atmospheric aerosols and ice cores: A review.

Biomass burning (BB) is one of the largest sources of carbonaceous aerosols with adverse impacts on air quality, visibility, health and climate. BB emits a few specific aromatic acids (p-hydroxybenzoic, vanillic, syringic and dehydroabietic acids) which have been widely used as key indicators for source identification of BB-derived carbonaceous aerosols in various environmental matrices. In addition, measurement of p-hydroxybenzoic and vanillic acids in snow and ice cores have revealed the historical records of the fire emissions. Despite their uniqueness and importance as tracers, our current understanding of analytical methods, concentrations, diagnostic ratios and degradation processes are rather limited and scattered in literature. In this review paper, firstly we have summarized the most established methods and protocols for the measurement of these aromatic acids in aerosols and ice cores. Secondly, we have highlighted the geographical variability in the abundances of these acids, their diagnostic ratios and degradation processes in the environments. The review of the existing data indicates that the concentrations of aromatic acids in aerosols vary greatly with locations worldwide, typically more abundant in urban atmosphere where biomass fuels are commonly used for residential heating and/or cooking purposes. In contrast, their concentrations are lowest in the polar regions which are avoid of localized emissions and largely influenced by long-range transport. The diagnostic ratios among aromatic acids can be used as good indicators for the relative amounts and types of biomass (e.g. hardwood, softwood and herbaceous plants) as well as photochemical oxidation processes. Although studies suggest that the degradation processes of the aromatic acids may be controlled by light, pH and hygroscopicity, a more careful investigation, including closed chamber studies, is highly appreciated.