Biochemical markers of bone turnover and risk of incident hip fracture in older women: the Cardiovascular Health Study.

The relationships of osteocalcin (OC) and C-telopeptide of type I collagen (CTX) with long-term incidence of hip fracture were examined in 1680 post-menopausal women from a population-based study. CTX, but not OC, levels were associated with incident hip fracture in these participants, a relationship characterized by an inverted U-shape. INTRODUCTION: We sought to investigate the relationships of OC, a marker of bone formation, and CTX, a marker of bone resorption, with long-term incidence of hip fracture in older women. METHODS: We included 1680 women from the population-based Cardiovascular Health Study (mean [SD] age 74.5 [5.0] years). The longitudinal association of both markers with incidence of hip fracture was examined using multivariable Cox models. RESULTS: During a median follow-up of 12.3 years, 288 incident hip fractures occurred. Linear spline analysis did not demonstrate an association between OC levels and incident hip fracture. By contrast, increasing levels of CTX up to the middle-upper range were associated with a significantly greater risk of hip fracture (HR = 1.52 per SD increment, 95% CI = 1.10-2.09), while further increases were associated with a marginally non-significant lower risk (HR = 0.80 per SD increment, 95% CI = 0.63-1.01), after full adjustment for potential confounders. In analyses of quartiles, CTX exhibited a similar inverted U-shaped relationship with incident fracture after adjustment, with a significant association observed only for the comparison of quartile 3 to quartile 1 (HR = 1.63, 95% CI = 1.10-2.43). In a subset with available measures, both OC and CTX were inversely associated with bone mineral density of the hip. CONCLUSION: CTX, but not OC, levels were associated with incident hip fracture in post-menopausal women, a relationship characterized by an inverted U-shape. These findings highlight the complex relationship of bone turnover markers with hip fracture risk.

Fasting and post-glucose load measures of insulin resistance and risk of incident atrial fibrillation: The Cardiovascular Health Study.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Existing literature in individuals without diabetes has not demonstrated a relationship between IR and incident AF; however, data are limited and only fasting glucose measures of IR were assessed. We evaluated the relationship of both fasting and post-glucose load IR measures with the development of atrial fibrillation in nondiabetic older adults. METHODS AND RESULTS: Among Cardiovascular Health Study participants, a population-based cohort of 5888 adults aged 65 years or older enrolled in two waves (1989-1990 and 1992-1993), those without prevalent AF or diabetes and with IR measures at baseline were followed for the development of AF, identified by follow-up visit electrocardiograms, hospital discharge diagnosis coding, or Medicare claims data, through 2014. Fasting IR was determined by the homeostatic model of insulin resistance (HOMA-IR) and post-glucose load IR was determined by the Gutt index. Cox proportional hazards models were used to determine the association of IR with risk of AF. Analyses included 3601 participants (41% men) with a mean age of 73 years. Over a median follow-up of 12.3 years, 1443 (40%) developed AF. After multivariate adjustment, neither HOMA-IR nor the Gutt index was associated with risk of developing AF [hazard ratios (95% confidence intervals): 0.96 (0.90, 1.03) for 1-SD increase in HOMA-IR and 1.03 (0.97, 1.10) for 1-SD decrease in the Gutt index]. CONCLUSIONS: We found no evidence of an association between either fasting or post-glucose load IR measures and incident AF.

Brain natriuretic peptide and insulin resistance in older adults.

AIMS: Higher levels of brain natriuretic peptide (BNP) have been associated with a decreased risk of diabetes in adults, but whether BNP is related to insulin resistance in older adults has not been established. METHODS: N-terminal of the pro hormone brain natriuretic peptide (NT-pro BNP) was measured among Cardiovascular Health Study participants at the 1989-1990, 1992-1993 and 1996-1997 examinations. We calculated measures of insulin resistance [homeostatic model assessment of insulin resistance (HOMA-IR), quantitative insulin sensitivity check index (QUICKI), Gutt index, Matsuda index] from fasting and 2-h concentrations of glucose and insulin among 3318 individuals with at least one measure of NT-proBNP and free of heart failure, coronary heart disease and chronic kidney disease, and not taking diabetes medication. We used generalized estimating equations to assess the cross-sectional association of NT-proBNP with measures of insulin resistance. Instrumental variable analysis with an allele score derived from nine genetic variants (single nucleotide polymorphisms) within or near the NPPA and NPPB loci was used to estimate an un-confounded association of NT-proBNP levels on insulin resistance. RESULTS: Lower NT-proBNP levels were associated with higher insulin resistance even after adjustment for BMI, waist circumference and other risk factors (P < 0.001 for all four indices). Although the genetic score was strongly related to measured NT-proBNP levels amongst European Americans (F statistic = 71.08), we observed no association of genetically determined NT-proBNP with insulin resistance (P = 0.38; P = 0.01 for comparison with the association of measured levels of NT-proBNP). CONCLUSIONS: In older adults, lower NT-proBNP is associated with higher insulin resistance, even after adjustment for traditional risk factors. Because related genetic variants were not associated with insulin resistance, the causal nature of this association will require future study.

Novel gene variants predict serum levels of the cytokines IL-18 and IL-1ra in older adults.

Activation of inflammatory pathways measured by serum inflammatory markers such as interleukin-18 (IL-18) and interleukin-1 receptor antagonist (IL-1ra) is strongly associated with the progression of chronic disease states in older adults. Given that these serum cytokine levels are in part a heritable trait, genetic variation may predict increased serum levels. Using the Cardiovascular Health Study and InCHIANTI cohorts, a genome-wide association study was performed to identify genetic variants that influence IL-18 and IL-1ra serum levels among older adults. Multiple linear regression models characterized the association between each SNP and log-transformed cytokine values. Tests for multiple independent signals within statistically significant loci were performed using haplotype analysis and regression models conditional on lead SNP in each region. Multiple SNPs were associated with these cytokines with genome-wide significance, including SNPs in the IL-18-BCO gene region of chromosome 2 for IL-18 (top SNP rs2250417, P=1.9×10(-32)) and in the IL-1 gene family region of chromosome 2 for IL-1ra (rs6743376, P=2.3×10(-26)). Haplotype tests and conditional linear regression models showed evidence of multiple independent signals in these regions. Serum IL-18 levels were also associated with a region on chromosome 2 containing the NLRC4 gene (rs12989936, P=2.7×10(-19)). These data characterize multiple robust genetic signals that influence IL-18 and IL-1ra cytokine production. In particular, the signal for serum IL-18 located on chromosome two is novel and potentially important in inflammasome triggered chronic activation of inflammation in older adults. Replication in independent cohorts is an important next step, as well as molecular studies to better understand the role of NLRC4.

Lipoprotein-associated phospholipase A2 (Lp-PLA2) and future risk of type 2 diabetes: results from the Cardiovascular Health Study.

INTRODUCTION: Lipoprotein-associated phospholipase A2 (Lp-PLA(2)) has been consistently associated with cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors and predictive of CVD outcomes; furthermore, it is consistently higher among type 2 diabetics than nondiabetics. However, the relationships of circulating Lp-PLA(2) mass and activity with incident type 2 diabetes mellitus have not been examined. Therefore, the purpose of this study was to determine the association of Lp-PLA(2) mass and activity with type 2 diabetes among older adults. METHODS: We conducted analyses of Lp-PLA(2) and prevalent and incident diabetes among 5474 men and women from the Cardiovascular Health Study (1989-2007). Lp-PLA(2) mass and activity were measured in baseline plasma. Diabetes status was ascertained annually with medication inventories and repeated blood glucose measurements. Generalized linear and Cox proportional hazards models were used to adjust for confounding factors including body mass index and inflammation. RESULTS: At baseline, the top two quintiles of Lp-PLA(2) activity were significantly associated with prevalent type 2 diabetes with a multivariable relative risk = 1.35 [95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.11-1.63] for quintile 4, and relative risk = 1.33 (95% CI = 1.07-1.66) for quintile 5. Among participants free of diabetes at baseline, we found a significant positive association with both the homeostatic model assessment for insulin resistance and ß-cell function per SD increase in Lp-PLA(2) activity (P values for both <0.01). In prospective analyses, the risk of incident type 2 diabetes was significantly higher among those in the highest quintile of Lp-PLA(2) activity [multivariable hazard ratio = 1.45 (95% CI = 1.01-2.07)] compared with the lowest quintile. Lp-PLA(2) mass was not significantly associated with incident type 2 diabetes. DISCUSSION: Lp-PLA(2) activity is positively associated with insulin resistance and predicts incident type 2 diabetes among older adults independent of multiple factors associated with diabetes pathogenesis.

Lung and kidney cancer mortality associated with arsenic in drinking water in Córdoba, Argentina.

BACKGROUND: Studies in Taiwan have found dose-response relations between arsenic ingestion from drinking water and cancers of the skin, bladder, lung, kidney and liver. To investigate these associations in another population, we conducted a study in Córdoba, Argentina, which has a well-documented history of arsenic exposure from drinking water. METHODS: Mortality from lung, kidney, liver and skin cancers during the period 1986-1991 in Córdoba's 26 counties was investigated, expanding the authors' previous analysis of bladder cancer in the province. Counties were grouped a priori into low, medium and high arsenic exposure categories based on available data. Standardized mortality ratios (SMR) were calculated using all of Argentina as the reference population. RESULTS: We found increasing trends for kidney and lung cancer mortality with arsenic exposure, with the following SMR, for men and women respectively: kidney cancer, 0.87, 1.33, 1.57 and 1.00, 1.36, 1.81; lung cancer, 0.92, 1.54, 1.77 and 1.24, 1.34, 2.16 (in all cases, P < 0.001 in trend test), similar to the previously reported bladder cancer results (0.80, 1.28, 2.14 for men, 1.22, 1.39, 1.81 for women). There was a small positive trend for liver cancer but mortality was increased in all three exposure groups. Skin cancer mortality was elevated for women only in the high exposure group, while men showed a puzzling increase in mortality in the low exposure group. CONCLUSIONS: The results add to the evidence that arsenic ingestion increases the risk of lung and kidney cancers. In this study, the association between arsenic and mortality from liver and skin cancers was not clear.

Marked increase in bladder and lung cancer mortality in a region of Northern Chile due to arsenic in drinking water.

Studies in Taiwan and Argentina suggest that ingestion of inorganic arsenic from drinking water results in increased risks of internal cancers, particularly bladder and lung cancer. The authors investigated cancer mortality in a population of around 400,000 people in a region of Northern Chile (Region II) exposed to high arsenic levels in drinking water in past years. Arsenic concentrations from 1950 to the present were obtained. Population-weighted average arsenic levels reached 570 microg/liter between 1955 to 1969, and decreased to less than 100 microg/liter by 1980. Standardized mortality ratios (SMRs) were calculated for the years 1989 to 1993. Increased mortality was found for bladder, lung, kidney, and skin cancer. Bladder cancer mortality was markedly elevated (men, SMR = 6.0 (95% confidence interval (CI) 4.8-7.4); women, SMR = 8.2 (95% CI 6.3-10.5)) as was lung cancer mortality (men, SMR = 3.8 (95% CI 3.5-4.1); women, SMR = 3.1 (95% CI 2.7-3.7)). Smoking survey data and mortality rates from chronic obstructive pulmonary disease provided evidence that smoking did not contribute to the increased mortality from these cancers. The findings provide additional evidence that ingestion of inorganic arsenic in drinking water is indeed a cause of bladder and lung cancer. It was estimated that arsenic might account for 7% of all deaths among those aged 30 years and over. If so, the impact of arsenic on the population mortality in Region II of Chile is greater than that reported anywhere to date from environmental exposure to a carcinogen in a major population.

Relationship of urinary arsenic to intake estimates and a biomarker of effect, bladder cell micronuclei.

The purpose of this study was to investigate methods for ascertaining arsenic exposure for use in biomarker studies. Urinary arsenic concentration is considered a good measure of recent arsenic exposure and is commonly used to monitor exposure in environmental and occupational settings. However, measurements reflect exposure only in the last few days. To cover longer time periods exposure can be estimated using arsenic intake data, calculated by combining measures of environmental arsenic and inhalation/ingestion rates. We compared these different exposure assessment approaches in a population chronically exposed to arsenic in drinking water in northern Chile. The study group consisted of 232 people, some drinking water low in arsenic (15 micrograms/l) and others drinking water with high arsenic concentrations (up to 670 micrograms/l). First morning urine samples and questionnaire data, including fluid intake information, were collected from all participants. Exfoliated bladder cells were collected from male participants for the bladder cell micronuclei assay. Eight different indices of exposure were generated, six based on urinary arsenic (microgram As/l urine; microgram As/g creatinine; microgram InAs/l urine; microgram MMA/l urine; microgram DMA/l urine; microgram As/h, excreted), and two on fluid intake data (microgram As/day, ingested; microgram As/l fluid ingested-day). The relationship between the different exposure indices was explored using correlation analysis. In men, exposure indices were also related to a biomarker of effect, bladder cell micronuclei. While creatinine-adjusted urinary arsenic concentrations had the strongest correlations with the two intake estimates (r = 0.76, r = 0.81), unadjusted urinary arsenic showed the strongest relationship with bladder cell micronuclei. These data suggest that, in the case of the bladder, unadjusted urinary arsenic concentrations better reflect the effective target organ dose compared to other exposure measures for biomarker studies.

Micronuclei in exfoliated bladder cells among individuals chronically exposed to arsenic in drinking water.

Inorganic arsenic is an established cause of lung and skin cancer. Epidemiological evidence from Taiwan suggests that arsenic causes more fatal internal cancers, with the highest relative risks reported for bladder cancer. We conducted a cross-sectional biomarker study in a Chilean male population chronically exposed to high (70 subjects) and low (55 subjects) arsenic levels in their drinking water (average concentrations, 600 and 15 micrograms As/liter, respectively). A fluorescent version of the exfoliated bladder cell micronucleus (MN) assay was used employing fluorescence in situ hybridization with a centromeric probe to identify the presence (MN+) or absence (MN-) of whole chromosomes within micronuclei, thereby determining the mechanism of arsenic-induced genotoxicity in vivo. We divided the study population into quintiles by urinary arsenic levels and found an exposure-dependent increase in micronucleated cell prevalence in quintiles 2-4 (urinary arsenic, 54-729 micrograms/liter). The largest increase appeared when quintile 4 was compared to quintile 1 [prevalence ratio, 3.0; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.9-4.6]. The prevalence of MN+ increased to 3.1-fold in quintile 4 (95% CI, 1.4-6.6), and the prevalence of MN-increased to 7.5-fold in quintile 3 (95% CI, 2.8-20.3), suggesting that chromosome breakage was the major cause of MN formation. Prevalences of total MN, MN+, and MN- returned to baseline levels in quintile 5 (urinary arsenic, 729-1894 micrograms/liter), perhaps due to cytostasis or cytotoxicity. These results add additional weight to the hypothesis that ingesting arsenic-contaminated water enhances bladder cancer risk and suggest that arsenic induces genetic damage to bladder cells at drinking water levels close to the current United States Maximum Contaminant Level of 50 micrograms/liter for arsenic.

Decrease in bladder cell micronucleus prevalence after intervention to lower the concentration of arsenic in drinking water.

Epidemiological studies performed in Taiwan, Argentina, and Chile suggest that ingestion of arsenic (As) may cause bladder cancer. Because of these findings, we previously investigated the relationship between As ingestion and genetic damage to the urothelium in two cross-sectional biomarker studies, one in Nevada and one in Chile. In both studies, we found that increased levels of micronucleated cells (MNCs) in exfoliated bladder cells were associated with elevated concentrations of As in drinking water, suggesting that As induces genetic damage to bladder cells. To further investigate this relationship, we conducted an intervention study in a subset of highly exposed men (n = 34) from the cross-sectional study in Chile. Subjects whose usual source of water contained about 600 micrograms/liter As were supplied with water lower in As (45 micrograms/liter) for 8 weeks, allowing ample opportunity for renewal and exfoliation of bladder epithelial cells. Mean urinary As levels decreased during the intervention from 742 to 225 micrograms/liter. Bladder MNC prevalence also decreased from 2.63 MNCs/1000 cells preintervention to 1.79 MNCs/1000 cells postintervention (P < 0.05). When the analysis was limited to individuals previously having subcytotoxic urinary As levels (< 700 micrograms/liter), the change between pre- and postintervention MNC was more pronounced: the level decreased from 3.54 to 1.47 MNCs/1000 cells, respectively (P = 0.002). Among smokers, MNC prevalences decreased from 4.45 MNCs/1000 cells preintervention to 1.44 MNCs/1000 cells postintervention (P = 0.002). Among nonsmokers, the decrease was much smaller: 2.04 MNCs/1000 cells preintervention to 1.90 MNCs/1000 cells postintervention (P = 0.25), suggesting that smoker's bladder cells could be more susceptible to genotoxic damage caused by As. The reduction in bladder MNC prevalence with reduction in As intake provides further evidence that As is genotoxic to bladder cells.

Arsenic methylation patterns before and after changing from high to lower concentrations of arsenic in drinking water.

Inorganic arsenic (In-As), an occupational and environmental human carcinogen, undergoes biomethylation to monomethylarsonate (MMA) and dimethylarsinate (DMA). It has been proposed that saturation of methylation capacity at high exposure levels may lead to a threshold for the carcinogenicity of In-As. The relative distribution of urinary In-As, MMA, and DMA is used as a measure of human methylation capacity. The most common pathway for elevated environmental exposure to In-As worldwide is through drinking water. We conducted a biomarker study in northern Chile of a population chronically exposed to water naturally contaminated with high arsenic content (600 micrograms/l). In this paper we present the results of a prospective follow-up of 73 exposed individuals, who were provided with water of lower arsenic content (45 micrograms/l) for 2 months. The proportions of In-As, MMA, and DMA in urine were compared before and after intervention, and the effect of other factors on the distribution of arsenic metabolites was also analyzed. The findings of this study indicate that the decrease in arsenic exposure was associated with a small decrease in the percent In-As in urine (from 17.8% to 14.6%) and in the MMA/DMA ratio (from 0.23 to 0.18). Other factors such as smoking, gender, age, years of residence, and ethnicity were associated mainly with changes in the MMA/DMA ratio, with smoking having the strongest effect. Nevertheless, the factors investigated accounted for only about 20% of the large interindividual variability observed. Genetic polymorphisms in As-methylating enzymes and other co-factors are likely to contribute to some of the unexplained variation. The changes observed in the percent In-As and in the MMA/DMA ratio do not support an exposure-based threshold for arsenic methylation in humans.

Methylation study of a population environmentally exposed to arsenic in drinking water.

Methylation is considered the detoxification pathway for inorganic arsenic (InAs), an established human carcinogen. Urinary speciation analysis is used to assess the distribution of metabolites [monomethylarsonate (MMA), dimethylarsinate (DMA), and unmethylated arsenic (InAs)], as indicators of methylation capacity. We conducted a large biomarker study in northern Chile of a population chronically exposed to high levels of arsenic in drinking water. We report the results of the methylation study, which focused on the effects of exposure and other variables on the percent InAs, MMA, DMA, and the ratio of MMA to DMA in urine. The study consisted of 122 people in a town with arsenic water levels around 600 micrograms/l and 98 participants in a neighboring town with arsenic levels in water of about 15 micrograms/l. The corresponding mean urinary arsenic levels were 580 micrograms/l and 60 micrograms/l, of which 18.4% and 14.9% were InAs, respectively. The main differences were found for MMA:DMA; exposure, smoking, and being male were associated with higher MMA:DMA, while longer residence, Atacameño ethnicity, and being female were associated with lower MMA:DMA. Together, these variables explained about 30% of the variability in MMA:DMA. Overall, there was no evidence of a threshold for methylation capacity, even at very high exposures, and the interindividual differences were within a much wider range than those attributed to the variables investigated. The differences in percent InAs were small and within the ranges of other studies of background exposure levels. The biological significance of MMA:DMA, which was more than 1.5 times greater in the exposed group, and its relationship to sex, length of exposure, and ethnicity need further investigation because its relevance to health risk is not clear.

Bladder cancer mortality associated with arsenic in drinking water in Argentina.

Inorganic arsenic (In-As) is known to be a human carcinogen, causing lung cancer by inhalation and skin cancer by ingestion. Ecologic studies in Taiwan have found a dose-response relation between ingestion of In-As from drinking water and bladder cancer, but questions have been raised concerning the validity and generalizability of the findings. Several areas of Argentina have had high exposures to arsenic from naturally contaminated drinking water, particularly the eastern region of the province of Córdoba. In this study, we investigated bladder cancer mortality for the years 1986-1991 in Córdoba's 26 counties, using rates for all of Argentina as the standard for comparison. Bladder cancer standardized mortality ratios (SMRs) were consistently higher in counties with documented arsenic exposure. We grouped counties into low-, medium-, and high-exposure categories; the corresponding SMRs [with 95% confidence intervals (CI)] were 0.80 (95% CI = 0.66-0.96), 1.42 (95% CI = 1.14-1.74), and 2.14 (95% CI = 1.78-2.53) for men, and 1.21 (95% CI = 0.85-1.64), 1.58 (95% CI = 1.01-2.35), and 1.82 (95% CI = 1.19-2.64) for women. The clear trends found in a population with different genetic composition and a high-protein diet support the findings in Taiwan.

Rationale for selecting exfoliated bladder cell micronuclei as potential biomarkers for arsenic genotoxicity.

Biomarkers of effect have important potential in epidemiology, since they may enable ascertainment of exposure-effect associations in relatively inexpensive cross-sectional studies, with confirmation by short follow-up after cessation of exposure. Arsenic is known to cause human skin and lung cancer, and may also cause various internal cancers including bladder, kidney, and liver cancer. The strongest epidemiological association between arsenic ingestion and an internal cancer is that with bladder cancer. Epidemiological studies of a Taiwanese population exposed to high levels of arsenic from drinking water reported relative risks for bladder cancer well above any other known environmental carcinogen. Populations at increased risk for bladder cancer from other exposures, such as smoking and schistosomiasis infection, have elevated frequencies of micronuclei in exfoliated bladder cells. We have therefore proposed that the bladder cell micronucleus assay could be an appropriate biological marker of genotoxic effect of arsenic exposure. In this paper, we present the rationale for choosing the bladder cell micronucleus assay as a potential biomarker of effect for arsenic. We also briefly describe the studies we are conducting using this biomarker in currently exposed populations.