Accrual and statistical power failure in published adjuvant phase III oncology trials: a comprehensive analysis from 2013 to 2023.

BACKGROUND: In a competitive landscape with many ongoing adjuvant randomised controlled trials (RCTs), the prevalence of trials that failed to recruit their targeted sample size and were inadequately powered is unclear. The aims of the study are (i) to determine the percentage of trials with accrual and statistical power failure and (ii) to evaluate their potential impact on the drug development process. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A systematic review was carried out to identify adjuvant phase III oncology RCTs reported between 2013 and 2023 across all solid tumours. No restrictions were applied regarding the type of intervention or journal of publication. The percentage of trials with accrual failure and power failure was estimated as well as their association with the efficacy endpoints. Logistic regression models were used to estimate the odds ratio (OR) and its 95% confidence interval (CI). RESULTS: A total of 282 RCTs met the inclusion criteria with a median sample size of 661 patients and a median accrual period of 4.3 years. Most of these studies were superiority trials (83.0%). Accrual failure was observed in 22.0% of the studies, finishing recruitment without achieving the targeted sample size. Overall, 39.7% of the studies experienced power failure, having less power than specified in the protocol at the date of the read-out. Among superiority RCTs evaluating intermediate survival endpoints, only 31.1% presented statistically significant results. Trials with power failure were less likely to present statistically significant results (37.9% versus 21.9%, P = 0.04). The association was consistent across all cancer types. In the subset of non-inferiority trials, 35.0% formally demonstrated non-inferiority of the experimental arm. CONCLUSIONS: Nearly 40% of adjuvant phase III RCTs experienced power failure, and the reduction in power significantly impacted the final study results. There is a need for procedural refinements in the design and implementation of future adjuvant RCTs to mitigate these fallacies.

Prognostic value of EndoPredict test in patients with hormone receptor-positive, human epidermal growth factor receptor 2-negative primary breast cancer screened for the randomized, double-blind, phase III UNIRAD trial.

BACKGROUND: The purpose of this study was to evaluate the prognostic value of the multigene EndoPredict test in prospectively collected data of patients screened for the randomized, double-blind, phase III UNIRAD trial, which evaluated the addition of everolimus to adjuvant endocrine therapy in high-risk, hormone receptor-positive, human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (HER2)-negative early breast cancer. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Patients were classified into low or high risk according to the EPclin score, consisting of a 12-gene molecular score combined with tumor size and nodal status. Association of the EPclin score with disease-free survival (DFS) and distant metastasis-free survival (DMFS) was evaluated using Kaplan-Meier estimates. The independent prognostic added value of EPclin score was tested in a multivariate Cox model after adjusting on tumor characteristics. RESULTS: EndoPredict test results were available for 768 patients: 663 patients classified as EPclin high risk (EPCH) and 105 patients as EPclin low risk (EPCL). Median follow-up was 70 months (range 1-172 months). For the 429 EPCH randomized patients, there was no significant difference in DFS between treatment arms. The 60-month relapse rate for patients in the EPCL and EPCH groups was 0% and 7%, respectively. Hazard ratio (HR) supposing continuous EPclin score was 1.87 [95% confidence interval (CI) 1.4-2.5, P < 0.0001]. This prognostic effect remained significant when assessed in a Cox model adjusting on tumor size, number of positive nodes and tumor grade (HR 1.52, 95% CI 1.09-2.13, P = 0.0141). The 60-month DMFS for patients in the EPCL and EPCH groups was 100% and 94%, respectively (adjusted HR 8.10, 95% CI 1.1-59.1, P < 0.0001). CONCLUSIONS: The results confirm the value of EPclin score as an independent prognostic parameter in node-positive, hormone receptor-positive, HER2-negative early breast cancer patients receiving standard adjuvant treatment. EPclin score can be used to identify patients at higher risk of recurrence who may warrant additional systemic treatments.

Results of the c-TRAK TN trial: a clinical trial utilising ctDNA mutation tracking to detect molecular residual disease and trigger intervention in patients with moderate- and high-risk early-stage triple-negative breast cancer.

BACKGROUND: Post-treatment detection of circulating tumour DNA (ctDNA) in early-stage triple-negative breast cancer (TNBC) patients predicts high risk of relapse. c-TRAK TN assessed the utility of prospective ctDNA surveillance in TNBC and the activity of pembrolizumab in patients with ctDNA detected [ctDNA positive (ctDNA+)]. PATIENTS AND METHODS: c-TRAK TN, a multicentre phase II trial, with integrated prospective ctDNA surveillance by digital PCR, enrolled patients with early-stage TNBC and residual disease following neoadjuvant chemotherapy, or stage II/III with adjuvant chemotherapy. ctDNA surveillance comprised three-monthly blood sampling to 12 months (18 months if samples were missed due to coronavirus disease), and ctDNA+ patients were randomised 2 : 1 to intervention : observation. ctDNA results were blinded unless patients were allocated to intervention, when staging scans were done and those free of recurrence were offered pembrolizumab. A protocol amendment (16 September 2020) closed the observation group; all subsequent ctDNA+ patients were allocated to intervention. Co-primary endpoints were (i) ctDNA detection rate and (ii) sustained ctDNA clearance rate on pembrolizumab (NCT03145961). RESULTS: Two hundred and eight patients registered between 30 January 2018 and 06 December 2019, 185 had tumour sequenced, 171 (92.4%) had trackable mutations, and 161 entered ctDNA surveillance. Rate of ctDNA detection by 12 months was 27.3% (44/161, 95% confidence interval 20.6% to 34.9%). Seven patients relapsed without prior ctDNA detection. Forty-five patients entered the therapeutic component (intervention n = 31; observation n = 14; one observation patient was re-allocated to intervention following protocol amendment). Of patients allocated to intervention, 72% (23/32) had metastases on staging at the time of ctDNA+, and 4 patients declined pembrolizumab. Of the five patients who commenced pembrolizumab, none achieved sustained ctDNA clearance. CONCLUSIONS: c-TRAK TN is the first prospective study to assess whether ctDNA assays have clinical utility in guiding therapy in TNBC. Patients had a high rate of metastatic disease on ctDNA detection. Findings have implications for future trial design, emphasising the importance of commencing ctDNA testing early, with more sensitive and/or frequent ctDNA testing regimes.

Singlet Oxygen Quenching by Resveratrol Derivatives.

We investigated the singlet oxygen quenching ability of several derivatives of trans-resveratrol which have been reported to have significant antioxidant ability, including photoprotective activity. We measured the total rate constants of singlet oxygen removal (kT ) by the methylated resveratrol derivative 1,3-dimethoxy-5-[(E)-2-(4-methoxyphenyl)ethenyl]benzene, and the partially methylated resveratrol derivatives 4-((E)-2-(3,5-dimethoxyphenyl)ethenyl)phenol (pterostilbene), 5-[(E)-2-(4-methoxyphenyl)ethenyl]benzene-1,3-diol and (2R,3R)-3,5,7-trihydroxy-2-(3,4,5-trihydroxyphenyl)-2,3-dihydrochromen-4-one (dihydromyricetin). A protic solvent system results in higher kT values, except for the completely methylated derivative. We also investigated the ability of trans-resveratrol to directly act as a photosensitizer (rather than via secondary photoproducts resulting from other primary photochemical reactions) for the production of singlet oxygen but found that neither resveratrol nor any of its derivatives are able to do so. We then studied the chemical reactions of the methylated derivative with singlet oxygen. The main pathway consists of a [4 + 2] cycloaddition reaction involving the trans-double bond and the para-substituted benzene ring similar to what has been observed for trans-resveratrol. Unlike trans-resveratrol, the primary singlet oxygen product undergoes a second [4 + 2] cycloaddition with singlet oxygen leading to the formation of diendoperoxides. A second reactivity pathway for both trans-resveratrol and the methylated derivative leads to the formation of aldehydes via cleavage of a transient dioxetane.

Overall survival in the OlympiA phase III trial of adjuvant olaparib in patients with germline pathogenic variants in BRCA1/2 and high-risk, early breast cancer.

BACKGROUND: The randomized, double-blind OlympiA trial compared 1 year of the oral poly(adenosine diphosphate-ribose) polymerase inhibitor, olaparib, to matching placebo as adjuvant therapy for patients with pathogenic or likely pathogenic variants in germline BRCA1 or BRCA2 (gBRCA1/2pv) and high-risk, human epidermal growth factor receptor 2-negative, early breast cancer (EBC). The first pre-specified interim analysis (IA) previously demonstrated statistically significant improvement in invasive disease-free survival (IDFS) and distant disease-free survival (DDFS). The olaparib group had fewer deaths than the placebo group, but the difference did not reach statistical significance for overall survival (OS). We now report the pre-specified second IA of OS with updates of IDFS, DDFS, and safety. PATIENTS AND METHODS: One thousand eight hundred and thirty-six patients were randomly assigned to olaparib or placebo following (neo)adjuvant chemotherapy, surgery, and radiation therapy if indicated. Endocrine therapy was given concurrently with study medication for hormone receptor-positive cancers. Statistical significance for OS at this IA required P < 0.015. RESULTS: With a median follow-up of 3.5 years, the second IA of OS demonstrated significant improvement in the olaparib group relative to the placebo group [hazard ratio 0.68; 98.5% confidence interval (CI) 0.47-0.97; P = 0.009]. Four-year OS was 89.8% in the olaparib group and 86.4% in the placebo group (Δ 3.4%, 95% CI -0.1% to 6.8%). Four-year IDFS for the olaparib group versus placebo group was 82.7% versus 75.4% (Δ 7.3%, 95% CI 3.0% to 11.5%) and 4-year DDFS was 86.5% versus 79.1% (Δ 7.4%, 95% CI 3.6% to 11.3%), respectively. Subset analyses for OS, IDFS, and DDFS demonstrated benefit across major subgroups. No new safety signals were identified including no new cases of acute myeloid leukemia or myelodysplastic syndrome. CONCLUSION: With 3.5 years of median follow-up, OlympiA demonstrates statistically significant improvement in OS with adjuvant olaparib compared with placebo for gBRCA1/2pv-associated EBC and maintained improvements in the previously reported, statistically significant endpoints of IDFS and DDFS with no new safety signals.

Singlet Oxygen Generation, Quenching and Reactivity with Metal Thiolates.

Metal thiolate complexes can act as photosensitizers for the generation of singlet oxygen, quenchers of singlet oxygen, and they may undergo chemical reactions with singlet oxygen leading to oxidized thiolate ligands. This review covers all of the chemical reactions of thiolate ligands with singlet oxygen (through early 2021). Since some of these reactions are self-sensitized photooxidations, singlet oxygen generation by metal complexes is also discussed. Mechanistic features such as the effects of protic vs. aprotic conditions are presented and compared with the comparatively well-understood photooxidation of organic sulfides. In general, the total rate of singlet oxygen removal correlates with the nucleophilicity of the thiolate ligand which in turn can be influenced by the metal. Some interesting patterns of reactivity have been noted as a result of this survey: Metal thiolate complexes bearing arylthiolate ligands appear to exclusively produce sulfinate (metal-bound sulfone) products upon reaction with singlet oxygen. In contrast, metal thiolate complexes bearing alkylthiolate ligands may produce sulfinate and/or sulfenate (metal-bound sulfoxide) products. Several mechanistic pathways have been proposed for these reactions, but the exact nature of any intermediates remains unknown at this time.

Five-fraction Radiotherapy for Breast Cancer: FAST-Forward to Implementation.

INTRODUCTION: The phase 3 FAST-Forward trial reported outcomes for 26 and 27 Gy schedules delivered in 5 fractions over 1 week versus 40 Gy in 15 fractions over 3 weeks in 4000 patients. We discuss concerns raised by the radiotherapy community in relation to implementing this schedule. IPSILATERAL BREAST TUMOUR RELAPSE (IBTR): Published estimated 5-year IBTR with 95% CI after 40 Gy in 15 fractions was 2.1% (95% CI 1.4-3.1), 1.7% (1.2-1.6) after 27 Gy and 1.4% (0.2-2.2) after 26 Gy, emphatically showing non-inferiority of the 5-fraction regimens. Subgroup analyses comparing IBTR in 26 Gy versus 40 Gy show no evidence of differential effect regarding age, grade, pathological tumour size, nodal status, tumour bed boost, adjuvant chemotherapy, HER2 status and triple negative status. The number of events in these analyses is small and results should be interpreted with caution. There was only 1 IBTR event post-mastectomy. NORMAL TISSUE EFFECTS: The 26 Gy schedule, on the basis of similar NTE to 40 Gy in 15 fractions, is the recommended regimen for clinical implementation. There is a low absolute rate of moderate/marked NTE, these are predominantly moderate not severe change. Subgroup analyses comparing clinician-assessed moderate or marked adverse effect for 26 Gy versus 40 Gy show no evidence of differential effects according to age, breast size, surgical deficit, tumour bed boost, or adjuvant chemotherapy. RADIOBIOLOGICAL CONSIDERATIONS: The design of the FAST-Forward trial does not control for time-related effects, and the ability to interpret clinical outcomes in terms of underlying biology is limited. There could conceivably be a time-effect for tumour control. A slight reduction in α/ß estimate for the late normal tissue effects of test regimens might be a chance effect, but if real could reflect fewer consequential late effects due to lower rates of moist desquamation. CONCLUSION: The 26 Gy 5-fraction daily regimen for breast radiotherapy can be implemented now.

Assessment of structural chromosomal instability phenotypes as biomarkers of carboplatin response in triple negative breast cancer: the TNT trial.

BACKGROUND: In the TNT trial of triple negative breast cancer (NCT00532727), germline BRCA1/2 mutations were present in 28% of carboplatin responders. We assessed quantitative measures of structural chromosomal instability (CIN) to identify a wider patient subgroup within TNT with preferential benefit from carboplatin over docetaxel. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Copy number aberrations (CNAs) were established from 135 formalin-fixed paraffin-embedded primary carcinomas using Illumina OmniExpress SNP-arrays. Seven published [allelic imbalanced CNA (AiCNA); allelic balanced CNA (AbCNA); copy number neutral loss of heterozygosity (CnLOH); number of telomeric allelic imbalances (NtAI); BRCA1-like status; percentage of genome altered (PGA); homologous recombination deficiency (HRD) scores] and two novel [Shannon diversity index (SI); high-level amplifications (HLAMP)] CIN-measurements were derived. HLAMP was defined based on the presence of at least one of the top 5% amplified cytobands located on 1q, 8q and 10p. Continuous CIN-measurements were divided into tertiles. All nine CIN-measurements were used to analyse objective response rate (ORR) and progression-free survival (PFS). RESULTS: Patients with tumours without HLAMP had a numerically higher ORR and significantly longer PFS in the carboplatin (C) than in the docetaxel (D) arm [56% (C) versus 29% (D), PHLAMP,quiet = 0.085; PFS 6.1 months (C) versus 4.1 months (D), Pinteraction/HLAMP = 0.047]. In the carboplatin arm, patients with tumours showing intermediate telomeric NtAI and AiCNA had higher ORR [54% (C) versus 20% (D), PNtAI,intermediate = 0.03; 62% (C) versus 33% (D), PAiCNA,intermediate = 0.076]. Patients with high AiCNA and PGA had shorter PFS in the carboplatin arm [3.4 months (high) versus 5.7 months (low/intermediate); and 3.8 months (high) versus 5.6 months (low/intermediate), respectively; Pinteraction/AiCNA = 0.027, Padj.interaction/AiCNA = 0.125 and Pinteraction/PGA = 0.053, Padj.interaction/PGA = 0.176], whilst no difference was observed in the docetaxel arm. CONCLUSIONS: Patients with tumours lacking HLAMP and demonstrating intermediate CIN-measurements formed a subgroup benefitting from carboplatin relative to docetaxel treatment within the TNT trial. This suggests a complex and paradoxical relationship between the extent of genomic instability in primary tumours and treatment response in the metastatic setting.

Biomarker-guided trials: Challenges in practice.

Biomarker-guided trials have drawn considerable attention as they promise to lead to improvements in the benefit-risk ratio of treatments and enhanced opportunities for drug development. A variety of such designs have been proposed in the literature, many of which have been adopted in practice. Implementing such trial designs in practice can be challenging, and identifying those challenges was the main objective of a workshop organised by the MRC Hubs for Trials Methodology Research Network's Stratified Medicine Working Group in March 2017. Participants reflected on completed and ongoing biomarker-guided trials to identify the practical challenges encountered. Here, the key challenges identified during the workshop including those related to funding, ethical and regulatory issues, recruitment, monitoring of samples and laboratories, biomarker assessment, and data sharing and resources, are discussed. Despite the complexities often associated with biomarker-guided trials, the workshop concluded that they can play an important role in advancing the field of personalised medicine. Therefore, it is important that the practical challenges surrounding their implementation are acknowledged and addressed.

Structure and pro-toxic mechanism of the human Hsp90/PPIase/Tau complex.

The molecular chaperone Hsp90 is critical for the maintenance of cellular homeostasis and represents a promising drug target. Despite increasing knowledge on the structure of Hsp90, the molecular basis of substrate recognition and pro-folding by Hsp90/co-chaperone complexes remains unknown. Here, we report the solution structures of human full-length Hsp90 in complex with the PPIase FKBP51, as well as the 280 kDa Hsp90/FKBP51 complex bound to the Alzheimer's disease-related protein Tau. We reveal that the FKBP51/Hsp90 complex, which synergizes to promote toxic Tau oligomers in vivo, is highly dynamic and stabilizes the extended conformation of the Hsp90 dimer resulting in decreased Hsp90 ATPase activity. Within the ternary Hsp90/FKBP51/Tau complex, Hsp90 serves as a scaffold that traps the PPIase and nucleates multiple conformations of Tau's proline-rich region next to the PPIase catalytic pocket in a phosphorylation-dependent manner. Our study defines a conceptual model for dynamic Hsp90/co-chaperone/client recognition.

Women's Free-text Comments on their Quality of Life: An Exploratory Analysis from the UK Standardisation of Breast Radiotherapy (START) Trials for Early Breast Cancer.

AIMS: Exploratory analysis of patients' unsolicited written comments in the first 2 years of the Standardisation of Breast Radiotherapy (START) trial quality of life study highlighted a potential effect of non-treatment-related problems on the ratings and interpretation of patient self-reported questionnaires. At 5 years of follow-up all eligible subjects were invited to write comments to further explore these findings. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Using inductive qualitative methods informed by the exploratory analysis, comments were allocated to relevant themes. Key patient-reported outcome measures (PROMs), clinical and demographic factors were collated for patients who did and did not comment at 5 years and comparisons between the groups explored. RESULTS: Of 2208 women completing baseline PROMs, 482 proffered comments from 0 to 24 months, forming nine distinct themes, including chronic conditions, life events and psychosocial concerns. At 5 years, 1041/1727 (60.3%) women contributed comments, of whom 500 randomly selected participants formed the sample for analysis. Findings revealed comorbidity, impaired physical functioning and psychosocial problems as key themes, with prevalent adverse effects from local and systemic treatments. Eight new themes emerged at 5 years, including ageing, concerns about future cancer and positive aspects of care. Women commenting were better educated, slightly older and more likely to have had chemotherapy compared with non-commenters. They had significantly worse PROM scores for global health and key quality of life domains relevant to the difficulties they revealed. CONCLUSIONS: Difficult personal circumstances and other health concerns affected many women's PROM ratings at 5 years of follow-up, in addition to ongoing cancer treatment effects. Greater attention to multiple sources of distress and adversity could facilitate personalised care and aid interpretation of PROMs.

Can Interrogation of Tumour Characteristics Lead us to Safely Omit Adjuvant Radiotherapy in Patients with Early Breast Cancer?

Adjuvant radiotherapy after breast-conserving surgery has been an important component of the standard of care for early breast cancer. Improvements in breast cancer care have resulted in a substantial reduction in local relapse rates over recent decades. Although the proportional benefits of adjuvant radiotherapy are similar for different prognostic risk groups of patients, the absolute benefits depend on the risk of relapse and therefore vary considerably between prognostic groups. Radiotherapy is not without risk and for some patients at very low risk of relapse the risks of radiotherapy may outweigh the benefit, leading to potential overtreatment. Randomised controlled trial (RCT) evidence shows that omission of radiotherapy in low risk early breast cancer does not reduce overall survival or increase breast cancer mortality and local recurrences are salvageable. Despite this there has not been a change in practice regarding omission of radiotherapy. The reasons for this may include challenges in patient selection. Recent advances in immunohistochemistry and genomic profiling may improve risk stratification and the development of biomarkers to directed therapies. Several RCTs have quantified the benefit of radiotherapy in reducing local relapse. Where a treatment benefit is known but is considered to be so small not to be clinically relevant then alternatives to RCTs may be considered to answer the question of need. This is because we can assess risk against a fixed 'absolute' boundary rather than needing a randomised comparator. The prospective cohort study is an alternative to the RCT design to answer the question of need for radiotherapy. The feasibility of recruitment into biomarker-directed de-escalation studies will become apparent as more studies open. The challenge is to determine if we are able to accurately risk stratify patients and avoid unnecessary toxicity, thereby tailoring the need for adjuvant breast radiotherapy on an individual patient basis.

Evaluation of applying IHC4 as a prognostic model in the translational study of Intergroup Exemestane Study (IES): PathIES.

BACKGROUND: Intergroup Exemestane Study (IES) was a randomised study that showed a survival benefit of switching adjuvant endocrine therapy after 2-3 years from tamoxifen to exemestane. This PathIES aimed to assess the role of immunohistochemical (IHC)4 score in determining the relative sensitivity to either tamoxifen or sequential treatment with tamoxifen and exemestane. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Primary tumour samples were available for 1274 patients (27% of IES population). Only patients for whom the IHC4 score could be calculated (based on oestrogen receptor, progesterone receptor, HER2 and Ki67) were included in this analysis (N = 430 patients). The clinical score (C) was based on age, grade, tumour size and nodal status. The association of clinicopathological parameters, IHC4(+C) scores and treatment effect with time to distant recurrence-free survival (TTDR) was assessed in univariable and multivariable Cox regression analyses. A modified clinical score (PathIEscore) (N = 350) was also estimated. RESULTS: Our results confirm the prognostic importance of the original IHC4, alone and in conjunction with clinical scores, but no significant difference with treatment effects was observed. The combined IHC4 + Clinical PathIES score was prognostic for TTDR (P < 0.001) with a hazard ratio (HR) of 5.54 (95% CI 1.29-23.70) for a change from 1st quartile (Q1) to Q1-Q3 and HR of 15.54 (95% CI 3.70-65.24) for a change from Q1 to Q4. CONCLUSION: In the PathIES population, the IHC4 score is useful in predicting long-term relapse in patients who remain disease-free after 2-3 years. This is a first trial to suggest the extending use of IHC4+C score for prognostic indication for patients who have switched endocrine therapies at 2-3 years and who remain disease-free after 2-3 years.

Mechanistic basis for the recognition of a misfolded protein by the molecular chaperone Hsp90.

The critical toxic species in over 40 human diseases are misfolded proteins. Their interaction with molecular chaperones such as Hsp90, which preferentially interacts with metastable proteins, is essential for the blocking of disease progression. Here we used nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) spectroscopy to determine the three-dimensional structure of the misfolded cytotoxic monomer of the amyloidogenic human protein transthyretin, which is characterized by the release of the C-terminal ß-strand and perturbations of the A-B loop. The misfolded transthyretin monomer, but not the wild-type protein, binds to human Hsp90. In the bound state, the Hsp90 dimer predominantly populates an open conformation, and transthyretin retains its globular structure. The interaction surface for the transthyretin monomer comprises the N-terminal and middle domains of Hsp90 and overlaps with that of the Alzheimer's-disease-related protein tau. Taken together, the data suggest that Hsp90 uses a mechanism for the recognition of aggregation-prone proteins that is largely distinct from those of other Hsp90 clients.