Prospects for dog rabies elimination in Nigeria by 2030.

The attainment of the global target of zero dog-mediated human rabies by 2030 depends on functional rabies programmes. Nigeria, a rabies-endemic country, and the most populous country in Africa has a very poor rabies control strategy with a score of 1.5 out of 5 based on the Stepwise Approach towards Rabies Elimination (SARE). In this article, we report a scoping review that we conducted to highlight the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats as well as situational analysis of rabies control in Nigeria and suggest a timeline for key activities that are needed to ensure zero by 30. Our findings reveal that rabies is grossly under-reported as only 998 human and 273 dog-suspected rabies cases were reported across Nigeria between 2017 and 2022. Our literature review also demonstrates a paucity of information on rabies in both human and animal health sectors. A total of 49 studies on dog rabies in Nigeria, with a predominance of reports from the North Central geopolitical region (48%, n = 23) were therefore included in this study. Currently, only 16.2% (n = 6/37) of Nigerian states have available data related to the estimated dog populations, the dog ownership rates, the vaccination status of dogs or the incidence of dog bites. Based on a dog-to-human ratio of 1:16.3, we estimated that the dog population in Nigeria was 12,969,368 (95% CI: 12,320,900-13,617,836). Thus, to attain herd immunity and dog rabies control in Nigeria, at least 9.1 million dogs must be vaccinated annually. Our review reveals that, despite the strengths and available opportunities to achieve rabies control in Nigeria by 2030, the weaknesses and challenges will make the attainment of zero by 30 very difficult or impossible. Nigeria's best-case scenario by the year 2030 is SARE stage 3-4 (control-elimination) out of 5. Otherwise, the rabies control programme might not surpass SARE stages 2-3. To attain zero by 30, Nigeria must re-strategize its current rabies control programme by funding and implementing the national strategic plan for rabies control, creating a rabies desk office in the 37 states (FCT inclusive), rigorously conducting mass vaccination campaigns, providing post-exposure prophylaxis, prioritizing mass enlightenment with a focus on responsible pet ownership and conduct baseline national rabies surveillance in the animal and human health sectors.

Perception of canine rabies among pupils under 15 years in Kwara State, North Central Nigeria.

Rabies is an endemic, highly fatal, and vaccine-preventable disease with severe socio-economic implications. Most (99%) human rabies cases are transmitted through dog bites. Children under 15 years account for 40% of all dog bite victims and 35-50% of all rabies deaths. Rabies awareness among this vulnerable group is critical to rabies prevention. However, there is a paucity of data on rabies awareness among pupils under 15. Hence, this study assessed the awareness and attitude of pupils under 15 years towards canine rabies in Kwara state in Nigeria. The study was conducted as a cross-sectional survey of 1,388 pupils across the state using a structured questionnaire that was administered as a one-on-one interview using the Open Data Kit on Android phones in December 2019. Of the 1388 pupils included in this study, only 21.7% (n = 301) of them were aware of rabies. The mean rabies score was 1.7±0.8 and only 29.2% (n = 88/301) of the pupils had adequate knowledge of canine rabies. The dog ownership rate was 18.7% (n = 259) with an average of 1.93 dogs per household. Approximately 5% (n = 66) of the pupils have been previously bitten by a dog. One-third of the dog bite victims (35%, n = 23/66) were managed and treated at home and only 12% (n = 8/66) were treated in a health facility. The result of the multivariable logistic regression showed that students aged between 13-15 years were more likely (OR: 1.93; 95% CI: 0.72-3.01; p < 0.001) to have adequate knowledge of rabies than the younger pupils. Similarly, pupils that have dogs in their households (OR: 2.09; 95%CI: 1.49-2.75; p < 0.001) and those that reside in Kwara South (OR:1.78 95% CI:1.29, 2.44; p < 0.001) were more likely to be aware and have adequate knowledge of canine rabies respectively. Finally, Pupils from non-dog-owning households were more likely (OR:2.2; 95% CI: 1.45, 4.42; p < 0.001) to have been bitten by dogs than those from dog-owning households. The awareness and attitude of pupils under 15 to canine rabies was poor. We advocate the introduction of rabies lessons into the school curriculum in Kwara State to reduce the incidence of dog bites and prevent dog-mediated human rabies.

Climate-driven changes to the spatio-temporal distribution of the parasitic nematode, Haemonchus contortus, in sheep in Europe.

Recent climate change has resulted in changes to the phenology and distribution of invertebrates worldwide. Where invertebrates are associated with disease, climate variability and changes in climate may also affect the spatio-temporal dynamics of disease. Due to its significant impact on sheep production and welfare, the recent increase in diagnoses of ovine haemonchosis caused by the nematode Haemonchus contortus in some temperate regions is particularly concerning. This study is the first to evaluate the impact of climate change on H. contortus at a continental scale. A model of the basic reproductive quotient of macroparasites, Q0 , adapted to H. contortus and extended to incorporate environmental stochasticity and parasite behaviour, was used to simulate Pan-European spatio-temporal changes in H. contortus infection pressure under scenarios of climate change. Baseline Q0 simulations, using historic climate observations, reflected the current distribution of H. contortus in Europe. In northern Europe, the distribution of H. contortus is currently limited by temperatures falling below the development threshold during the winter months and within-host arrested development is necessary for population persistence over winter. In southern Europe, H. contortus infection pressure is limited during the summer months by increased temperature and decreased moisture. Compared with this baseline, Q0 simulations driven by a climate model ensemble predicted an increase in H. contortus infection pressure by the 2080s. In northern Europe, a temporal range expansion was predicted as the mean period of transmission increased by 2-3 months. A bimodal seasonal pattern of infection pressure, similar to that currently observed in southern Europe, emerges in northern Europe due to increasing summer temperatures and decreasing moisture. The predicted patterns of change could alter the epidemiology of H. contortus in Europe, affect the future sustainability of contemporary control strategies, and potentially drive local adaptation to climate change in parasite populations.

The basic reproduction quotient (Q0) as a potential spatial predictor of the seasonality of ovine haemonchosis.

Haemonchus contortus is a gastrointestinal nematode parasite of small ruminants, which feeds on blood and causes significant disease and production loss in sheep and goats, especially in warmer parts of the world. The life cycle includes free-living immature stages, which are subject to climatic influences on development, survival and availability, and this species therefore exhibits spatio-temporal heterogeneity in its infection pressure based on the prevailing climate. Models that better explain this heterogeneity could predict future epidemiological changes. The basic reproduction quotient (Q0) was used as a simple process-based model to predict climate-driven changes in the potential transmission of H. contortus across widely different geo-climatic zones, and showed good agreement with the observed frequency of this species in the gastrointestinal nematode fauna of sheep (r = 0.81, P <0.01). Averaged monthly Q0 output was further used within a geographical information system (GIS) to produce preliminary haemonchosis risk maps for the United Kingdom (UK) over a four-year historical span and under future climate change scenarios. Prolonged transmission seasons throughout the UK are predicted, especially in the south although with restricted transmission in peak summer due to rainfall limitation. Additional predictive ability might be achieved if information such as host density and distribution, grazing pattern and edaphic conditions were included as risk layers in the GIS-based risk map. However, validation of such risk maps presents a significant challenge, with georeferenced observed data of sufficient spatial and temporal resolution rarely available and difficult to obtain.