Seasonality of acute kidney injury phenotypes in England: an unsupervised machine learning classification study of electronic health records.

BACKGROUND: Acute Kidney Injury (AKI) is a multifactorial condition which presents a substantial burden to healthcare systems. There is limited evidence on whether it is seasonal. We sought to investigate the seasonality of AKI hospitalisations in England and use unsupervised machine learning to explore clustering of underlying comorbidities, to gain insights for future intervention. METHODS: We used Hospital Episodes Statistics linked to the Clinical Practice Research Datalink to describe the overall incidence of AKI admissions between 2015 and 2019 weekly by demographic and admission characteristics. We carried out dimension reduction on 850 diagnosis codes using multiple correspondence analysis and applied k-means clustering to classify patients. We phenotype each group based on the dominant characteristics and describe the seasonality of AKI admissions by these different phenotypes. RESULTS: Between 2015 and 2019, weekly AKI admissions peaked in winter, with additional summer peaks related to periods of extreme heat. Winter seasonality was more evident in those diagnosed with AKI on admission. From the cluster classification we describe six phenotypes of people admitted to hospital with AKI. Among these, seasonality of AKI admissions was observed among people who we described as having a multimorbid phenotype, established risk factor phenotype, and general AKI phenotype. CONCLUSION: We demonstrate winter seasonality of AKI admissions in England, particularly among those with AKI diagnosed on admission, suggestive of community triggers. Differences in seasonality between phenotypes suggests some groups may be more likely to develop AKI as a result of these factors. This may be driven by underlying comorbidity profiles or reflect differences in uptake of seasonal interventions such as vaccines.

The impact of repeated vaccination on relative influenza vaccine effectiveness among vaccinated adults in the United Kingdom.

Annual seasonal influenza vaccination is recommended for individuals at high risk of developing post-infection complications in many locations. However, reduced vaccine immunogenicity and effectiveness have been observed among repeat vaccinees in some influenza seasons. We investigated the impact of repeated influenza vaccination on relative vaccine effectiveness (VE) among individuals who were recommended for influenza vaccination in the United Kingdom with a retrospective cohort study using primary healthcare data from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink, a primary care database in the United Kingdom. Relative VE was estimated against general practitioner-diagnosed influenza-like illnesses (GP-ILI) and medically attended acute respiratory illnesses (MAARI) among participants who have been repeatedly vaccinated compared with first-time vaccinees using proportional hazards models. Relative VE against MAARI may be reduced for individuals above 65 years old who were vaccinated in the current and previous influenza seasons for some influenza seasons. However, these findings were not conclusive as we could not exclude the possibility of residual confounding in our dataset. The use of routinely collected data from electronic health records to examine the effects of repeated vaccination needs to be complemented with sufficient efforts to include negative control outcomes to rule out residual confounding.

Transmission dynamics of COVID-19 in household and community settings in the United Kingdom, January to March 2020.

BackgroundHouseholds appear to be the highest risk setting for COVID-19 transmission. Large household transmission studies in the early stages of the pandemic in Asia reported secondary attack rates ranging from 5 to 30%.AimWe aimed to investigate the transmission dynamics of COVID-19 in household and community settings in the UK.MethodsA prospective case-ascertained study design based on the World Health Organization FFX protocol was undertaken in the UK following the detection of the first case in late January 2020. Household contacts of cases were followed using enhanced surveillance forms to establish whether they developed symptoms of COVID-19, became confirmed cases and their outcomes. We estimated household secondary attack rates (SAR), serial intervals and individual and household basic reproduction numbers. The incubation period was estimated using known point source exposures that resulted in secondary cases.ResultsWe included 233 households with two or more people with 472 contacts. The overall household SAR was 37% (95% CI: 31-43%) with a mean serial interval of 4.67 days, an R0 of 1.85 and a household reproduction number of 2.33. SAR were lower in larger households and highest when the primary case was younger than 18 years. We estimated a mean incubation period of around 4.5 days.ConclusionsRates of COVID-19 household transmission were high in the UK for ages above and under 18 years, emphasising the need for preventative measures in this setting. This study highlights the importance of the FFX protocol in providing early insights on transmission dynamics.

The One Health approach to incident management of the 2019 Lassa fever outbreak response in Nigeria.

Globally, effective emergency response to disease outbreaks is usually affected by weak coordination. However, coordination using an incident management system (IMS) in line with a One Health approach involving human, environment, and animal health with collaborations between government and non-governmental agencies result in improved response outcome for zoonotic diseases such as Lassa fever (LF). We provide an overview of the 2019 LF outbreak response in Nigeria using the IMS and One Health approach. The response was coordinated via ten Emergency Operation Centre (EOC) response pillars. Cardinal response activities included activation of EOC, development of an incident action plan, deployment of One Health rapid response teams to support affected states, mid-outbreak review and after-action review meetings. Between 1st January and 29th December 2019, of the 5057 people tested for LF, 833 were confirmed positive from 23 States, across 86 Local Government Areas. Of the 833 confirmed cases, 650 (78%) were from hotspot States of Edo (36%), Ondo (26%) and Ebonyi (16%). Those in the age-group 21-40 years (47%) were mostly affected, with a male to female ratio of 1:1. Twenty healthcare workers were affected. Two LF naïve states Kebbi and Zamfara, reported confirmed cases for the first time during this period. The outbreak peaked earlier in the year compared to previous years, and the emergency phase of the outbreak was declared over by epidemiological week 17 based on low national threshold composite indicators over a period of six consecutive weeks. Multisectoral and multidisciplinary strategic One Health EOC coordination at all levels facilitated the swift containment of Nigeria's large LF outbreak in 2019. It is therefore imperative to embrace One Health approach embedded within the EOC to holistically address the increasing LF incidence in Nigeria.

Risk of symptomatic COVID-19 due to aircraft transmission: a retrospective cohort study of contact-traced flights during England's containment phase.

BACKGROUND: Knowledge gaps remain regarding SARS-CoV-2 transmission on flights. We conducted a retrospective cohort study to estimate risk of acquiring symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 on aircraft, to inform contact tracing and infection control efforts. METHODS: We identified co-passengers of infectious passengers on 18 England-bound flights from European cities up to 12/03/2020, using manifests received for contact tracing. Infectious passengers were laboratory-confirmed cases with symptom onset from 7 days before to 2 days after the flight. Possible aircraft-acquired cases were laboratory-confirmed with onset 3-14 days post-flight with no known non-flight exposure. Manifests was merged with the national case management dataset (identifying cases, onset dates, contact tracing status) and the national COVID-19 linelist. Contact tracing notes were reviewed to identify non-flight exposures. We calculated attack rates (ARs) among all co-passengers and within subgroups, including by distance from infectious cases and number of infectious cases on-board. RESULTS: There were 55 infectious passengers and 2313 co-passengers, including 2221 flight-only contacts. Five possible aircraft-acquired cases were identified; ARs of 0.2% (95%CI 0.1-0.5) among all flight-only contacts and 3.8% (95%CI 1.3-10.6) among contact-traced flight-only contacts sat within a two-seat radius. The AR among 92 co-travellers with known non-flight exposure to infectious cases was 13.0% (95%CI 7.6%-21.4%). There were insufficient numbers to assess differences between subgroups. CONCLUSION: We conclude that risk of symptomatic COVID-19 due to transmission on short to medium-haul flights is low, and recommend prioritising contact-tracing of close contacts and co-travellers where resources are limited. Further research on risk on aircraft is encouraged.

Factors associated with delayed presentation to healthcare facilities for Lassa fever cases, Nigeria 2019: a retrospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Large outbreaks of Lassa fever (LF) occur annually in Nigeria. The case fatality rate among hospitalised cases is ~ 20%. The antiviral drug ribavirin along with supportive care and rehydration are the recommended treatments but must be administered early (within 6 days of symptom onset) for optimal results. We aimed to identify factors associated with late presentation of LF cases to a healthcare facility to inform interventions. METHODS: We undertook a retrospective cohort study of all laboratory confirmed LF cases reported in Nigeria from December 2018 to April 2019. We performed descriptive epidemiology and a univariate Cox proportional-hazards regression analysis to investigate the effect of clinical (symptom severity), epidemiological (age, sex, education, occupation, residential State) and exposure (travel, attendance at funeral, exposure to rodents or confirmed case) factors on time to presentation. RESULTS: Of 389 cases, median presentation time was 6 days (IQR 4-10 days), with 53% attending within 6 days. There were no differences in presentation times by sex but differences were noted by age-group; 60+ year-olds had the longest delays while 13-17 year-olds had the shortest. By sex and age, there were differences seen among the younger ages, with 0-4-year-old females presenting earlier than males (4 days and 73% vs. 10 days and 30%). For 5-12 and 13-17 year-olds, males presented sooner than females (males: 5 days, 65% and 3 days, 85% vs. females: 6 days, 50% and 5 days, 61%, respectively). Presentation times differed across occupations 4.5-9 days and 20-60%, transporters (people who drive informal public transport vehicles) had the longest delays. Other data were limited (41-95% missing). However, the Cox regression showed no factors were statistically associated with longer presentation time. CONCLUSIONS: Whilst we observed important differences in presentation delays across factors, our sample size was insufficient to show any statistically significant differences that might exist. However, almost half of cases presented after 6 days of onset, highlighting the need for more accurate and complete surveillance data to determine if there is a systemic or specific cause for delays, so to inform, monitor and evaluate public health strategies and improve outcomes.

National outbreak of Pseudomonas aeruginosa associated with an aftercare solution following piercings, July to September 2016, England.

We report a national Pseudomonas aeruginosa outbreak from a common source following piercings between July and September 2016 in England. The multi-agency outbreak investigation included active case finding, microbiological testing of environmental samples and case specimens including Variable Number Tandem Repeat (VNTR) typing and a retrospective cohort study. Overall, 162 outbreak cases (29 confirmed, 14 probable and 119 possible) and 14 non-outbreak cases were identified; all confirmed cases had ear piercings (93% cartilage). Outbreak cases were predominantly female (95%) and had a median age of 18 years (interquartile range: 13-56 years). Nineteen outbreak cases required surgery under general anaesthetic The same outbreak VNTR type (11,3,5,3,3,3,6,4,7) was isolated from bottles of an aftercare solution from a single manufacturer and in specimens from confirmed cases who attended eight different piercing studios supplied with this product. In the cohort study, use of aftercare solution was associated with becoming a case (aOR: 4.60, 95% confidence interval: 1.65-12.90). Environmental, microbiological and epidemiological investigations confirmed that contamination during production of aftercare solution was the source of this national outbreak; highlighting challenges in the regulation of a cosmetic products used in the piercing industry and that guidance on piercing aftercare may need to be reviewed.

Neisseria gonorrhoeae molecular typing for understanding sexual networks and antimicrobial resistance transmission: A systematic review.

OBJECTIVES: Neisseria gonorrhoeae (NG) is a significant global public health concern due to rising diagnoses rates and antimicrobial resistance. Molecular combined with epidemiological data have been used to understand the distribution and spread of NG, as well as relationships between cases in sexual networks, but the public health value gained from these studies is unclear. We conducted a systematic review to examine how molecular epidemiological studies have informed understanding of sexual networks and NG transmission, and subsequent public health interventions. METHODS: Five research databases were systematically searched up to 31st March 2017 for studies that used sequence-based DNA typing methods, including whole genome sequencing, and linked molecular data to patient-level epidemiological data. Data were extracted and summarised to identify common themes. RESULTS: Of the 49 studies included, 82% used NG Multi-antigen Sequence Typing. Gender and sexual orientation were commonly used to characterise sexual networks that were inferred using molecular clusters; clusters predominantly of one patient group often contained a small number of isolates from other patient groups. Suggested public health applications included using these data to target interventions at specific populations, confirm outbreaks, and inform partner management, but these were mainly untested. CONCLUSIONS: Combining molecular and epidemiological data has provided insight into sexual mixing patterns, and dissemination of NG, but few studies have applied these findings to design or evaluate public health interventions. Future studies should focus on the application of molecular epidemiology in public health practice to provide evidence for how to prevent and control NG.

Prevalence of and factors associated with MDR Neisseria gonorrhoeae in England and Wales between 2004 and 2015: analysis of annual cross-sectional surveillance surveys.

Objectives: To describe trends in prevalence, susceptibility profile and risk factors for MDR Neisseria gonorrhoeae (MDR-NG) in England and Wales. Methods: Isolates from 16 242 gonorrhoea episodes at sexual health clinics within the Gonococcal Resistance to Antimicrobials Surveillance Programme (GRASP) underwent antimicrobial susceptibility testing. MDR-NG was defined as resistance to ceftriaxone, cefixime or azithromycin, plus at least two of penicillin, ciprofloxacin and spectinomycin. Trends in resistance are presented for 2004-15; prevalence and logistic regression analyses for MDR-NG cover the period of the most recent treatment guideline (ceftriaxone plus azithromycin), 2011-15. Results: Between 2004 and 2015, the proportion of N. gonorrhoeae isolates fully susceptible to all antimicrobial classes fell from 80% to 46%, with the proportion resistant to multiple (two or more) classes increasing from 7.3% to 17.5%. In 2011-15, 3.5% of isolates were MDR-NG, most of which were resistant to cefixime (100% in 2011, decreasing to 36.9% in 2015) and/or azithromycin (4.2% in 2011, increasing to 84.3% in 2015). After excluding azithromycin-resistant isolates, modal azithromycin MICs were higher in MDR versus non-MDR isolates (0.5 versus 0.125 mg/L), with similar results for ceftriaxone (modal MICs 0.03 versus ≤0.002 mg/L). After adjustment for confounders, MDR-NG was more common among isolates from heterosexual men, although absolute differences in prevalence were small [4.6% versus 3.3% (MSM) and 2.5% (women)]. Conclusions: N. gonorrhoeae is becoming less susceptible to available antimicrobials. Since 2011, a minority of isolates were MDR-NG; however, MICs of azithromycin or ceftriaxone (first-line therapies) for many of these were elevated. These findings highlight the importance of continued antimicrobial stewardship for gonorrhoea.