Impact of cash transfers on the association between prenatal exposures to high temperatures and low birthweight: Retrospective analysis from the LEAP 1000 study.

OBJECTIVE: To explore the associations between prenatal temperature exposures and low birthweight (LBW) and modification by cash transfer (CT) receipt. DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study. SETTING: Five rural districts in Northern Ghana. POPULATION OR SAMPLE: A total of 3016 infants born to women interviewed as part of the Livelihood Empowerment Against Poverty (LEAP 1000) impact evaluation between 2015 and 2017. METHODS: Birthweight was collected using household surveys administered to LEAP 1000 eligible women. We used a UNICEF-developed multiple imputation approach to address missingness of birthweight and applied an empirical heaping correction to the multiply imputed birthweight data. Survey data were linked to the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Reanalysis 5-hourly temperature averaged to weeks for 2011-2017 using community centroids. Using distributed-lag nonlinear models, we explored the lag-specific associations between weekly average temperatures greater than 30°C and LBW, and stratified by LEAP 1000 treatment. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Low birthweight (<2.5 kg). RESULTS: Twelve percent (n = 365) of infants were LBW; the mean ± SD birthweight was 3.02 ± 0.37 kg. Overall, increasing temperatures were associated with increased odds of LBW, with the greatest odds observed in the 3 weeks before birth (odds ratio 1.005-1.025). These positive associations were even larger among comparison infants and null among treatment infants. CONCLUSIONS: Our study found increased odds of LBW with high weekly average temperatures throughout pregnancy and the preconception period and demonstrate mitigated effects by the LEAP 1000 CT program. More evidence on the potential of CTs to serve as adaptation interventions in low- and middle-income countries is needed to protect pregnant persons and their infants from the impacts of climate change.

An expert review of environmental heat exposure and stillbirth in the face of climate change: Clinical implications and priority issues.

Exposure to extreme heat in pregnancy increases the risk of stillbirth. Progress in reducing stillbirth rates has stalled, and populations are increasingly exposed to high temperatures and climate events that may further undermine health strategies. This narrative review summarises the current clinical and epidemiological evidence of the impact of maternal heat exposure on stillbirth risk. Out of 20 studies, 19 found an association between heat and stillbirth risk. Recent studies based in low- to middle-income countries and tropical settings add to the existing literature to demonstrate that all populations are at risk. Additionally, both short-term heat exposure and whole-pregnancy heat exposure increase the risk of stillbirth. A definitive threshold of effect has not been identified, as most studies define exposure as above the 90th centile of the usual temperature for that population. Therefore, the association between heat and stillbirth has been found with exposures from as low as >12.64°C up to >46.4°C. The pathophysiological pathways by which maternal heat exposure may lead to stillbirth, based on human and animal studies, include both placental and embryonic or fetal impacts. Although evidence gaps remain and further research is needed to characterise these mechanistic pathways in more detail, preliminary evidence suggests epigenetic changes, alteration in imprinted genes, congenital abnormalities, reduction in placental blood flow, size and function all play a part. Finally, we explore this topic from a public health perspective; we discuss and evaluate the current public health guidance on minimising the risk of extreme heat in the community. There is limited pregnancy-specific guidance within heatwave planning, and no evidence-based interventions have been established to prevent poor pregnancy outcomes. We highlight priority research questions to move forward in the field and specifically note the urgent need for evidence-based interventions that are sustainable.

Effects on child and adolescent health of climate change mitigation policies: A systematic review of modelling studies.

There is a growing body of modelling evidence that demonstrates the potential for immediate and substantial benefits to adult health from greenhouse gas mitigation actions, but the effects on the health of younger age groups is largely unknown. We conducted a systematic review to identify the available published evidence of the modelled effects on child and adolescent health (≤18 years of age) of greenhouse gas mitigation. We searched six databases of peer-reviewed studies published between January 1, 1990 and July 27, 2022, screened 27,282 original papers and included 23 eligible papers. All included studies were set in high- and middle-income countries; and all studies modelled the effects of interventions that could mitigate greenhouse gas emissions and improve air quality. Most of the available evidence suggests positive benefits for child and adolescent respiratory health from greenhouse gas mitigation actions that simultaneously reduce air pollution (specifically PM2.5 and nitrogen dioxide). We found scant evidence on child and adolescent health from regions more vulnerable to climate change, or on mitigation interventions that could affect exposures other than air pollution.

Let's just ask them. Perspectives on urban dwelling and air quality: A cross-sectional survey of 3,222 children, young people and parents.

This research aimed to capture and synthesise the views of children, young people, parents and expectant parents (CYPP) about the cities where they live, with a specific focus on air pollution (AP), in order to support the generation of evidence-informed policy that reflects CYPP's perspectives, ultimately contributing to the development of child-centered, healthier, sustainable cities. The Children, Cities and Climate (CCC) project used targeted social media adverts to recruit CYPP to complete an online survey with a combination of open and closed questions in order to collect perceptions about air quality in their home cities, the main sources of AP, and how they would improve their cities. The survey was completed by 3,222 CYPP in 59 of the most polluted cities in 14 countries. Nearly two in five (39%) CYPP cited AP as one of the worst things about their city, with motor transport perceived as the main contributor. CYPP reported differing views on whether their cities were becoming better (43%) or worse (34%) places to live (33% reported it was 'staying the same'). Numerous specific ideas to improve cities and urban air quality emerged, alongside an emphasis on also addressing structural barriers to change. A clear set of principles that should guide how city leaders act was also described, including the need to engage with young people meaningfully. CYPPs articulated good and bad experiences of urban living and perceived AP and traffic as pressing concerns. They provided a clear set of suggestions for improving their cities. Further efforts to engage young people on these issues are warranted.

A feasibility study of the use of UmbiFlow™ to assess the impact of heat stress on fetoplacental blood flow in field studies.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the use of UmbiFlow™ in field settings to assess the impact of heat stress on umbilical artery resistance index (RI). METHODS: This feasibility study was conducted in West Kiang, The Gambia, West Africa; a rural area with increasing exposure to extreme heat. We recruited women with singleton fetuses who performed manual tasks (such as farming) during pregnancy to an observational cohort study. The umbilical artery RI was measured at rest, and during and at the end of a typical working shift in women at 28 weeks or more of pregnancy. Adverse pregnancy outcomes (APO) were classified as stillbirth, preterm birth, low birth weight, or small for gestational age, and all other outcomes as normal. RESULTS: A total of 40 participants were included; 23 normal births and 17 APO. Umbilical artery RI demonstrated a nonlinear relationship to heat stress, with indication of a potential threshold value for placental insufficiency at 32°C by universal thermal climate index and 30°C by wet bulb globe temperature. CONCLUSIONS: The Umbiflow device proved to be an effective field method for assessing placental function. Dynamic changes in RI may begin to explain the association between extreme heat and APO with an identified threshold of effect.

Environmental heat stress on maternal physiology and fetal blood flow in pregnant subsistence farmers in The Gambia, west Africa: an observational cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Anthropogenic climate change has caused extreme temperatures worldwide, with data showing that sub-Saharan Africa is especially vulnerable to these changes. In sub-Saharan Africa, women comprise 50% of the agricultural workforce, often working throughout pregnancy despite heat exposure increasing the risk of adverse birth outcomes. In this study, we aimed to improve understanding of the pathophysiological mechanisms responsible for the adverse health outcomes resulting from environmental heat stress in pregnant subsistence farmers. We also aimed to provide data to establish whether environmental heat stress also has physiological effects on the fetus. METHODS: We conducted an observational cohort study in West Kiang, The Gambia, at the field station for the Medical Research Council Unit The Gambia at London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine (named the MRC Keneba field station). Pregnant women who were aged 16 years or older and who were at <36 weeks' gestation of any gravida or parity were invited to participate in the study. Participants were eligible if they were involved in agricultural or related manual daily tasks of living. Participants were ineligible if they refused to provide consent, had multiple pregnancies (eg, if they had twins), were acutely unwell, or were diagnosed with pre-eclampsia or eclampsia. Heat stress was measured by wet bulb globe temperature (WBGT) and by using the universal thermal climate index (UTCI), and maternal heat strain was directly measured by modified physiological strain index calculated from heart rate and skin temperature. Outcome measures of fetal heart rate (FHR) and fetal strain (defined as a FHR >160 beats per min [bpm] or <115 bpm, or increase in umbilical artery resistance index) were measured at rest and during the working period. Multivariable repeated measure models (linear regression for FHR, and logistic regression for fetal strain) were used to evaluate the association of heat stress and heat strain with acute fetal strain. FINDINGS: Between Aug 26, 2019, and March 27, 2020, 92 eligible participants were recruited to the study. Extreme heat exposure was frequent, with average exposures of WBGT of 27·2°C (SD 3·6°C) and UTCI equivalent temperature of 34·0°C (SD 3·7°C). The total effect of UTCI on fetal strain resulted in an odds ratio (OR) of 1·17 (95% CI 1·09-1·29; p<0·0001), with an adjusted direct effect of OR of 1·12 (1·03-1·21; p=0·010) with each 1°C increase in UTCI. The adjusted OR of maternal heat strain on fetal strain was 1·20 (1·01-1·43; p=0·038), using the UTCI model, with each unit increase. INTERPRETATION: Data from our study show that decreasing maternal exposure to heat stress and heat strain is likely to reduce fetal strain, with the potential to reduce adverse birth outcomes. Further work that explores the association between heat stress and pregnancy outcomes in a variety of settings and populations is urgently needed to develop effective interventions. FUNDING: The Wellcome Trust.

Physiological mechanisms of the impact of heat during pregnancy and the clinical implications: review of the evidence from an expert group meeting.

Many populations experience high seasonal temperatures. Pregnant women are considered vulnerable to extreme heat because ambient heat exposure has been linked to pregnancy complications including preterm birth and low birthweight. The physiological mechanisms that underpin these associations are poorly understood. We reviewed the existing research evidence to clarify the mechanisms that lead to adverse pregnancy outcomes in order to inform public health actions. A multi-disciplinary expert group met to review the existing evidence base and formulate a consensus regarding the physiological mechanisms that mediate the effect of high ambient temperature on pregnancy. A literature search was conducted in advance of the meeting to identify existing hypotheses and develop a series of questions and themes for discussion. Numerous hypotheses have been generated based on animal models and limited observational studies. There is growing evidence that pregnant women are able to appropriately thermoregulate; however, when exposed to extreme heat, there are a number of processes that may occur which could harm the mother or fetus including a reduction in placental blood flow, dehydration, and an inflammatory response that may trigger preterm birth. There is a lack of substantial evidence regarding the processes that cause heat exposure to harm pregnant women. Research is urgently needed to identify what causes the adverse outcomes in pregnancy related to high ambient temperatures so that the impact of climate change on pregnant women can be mitigated.

Grassroots and Youth-Led Climate Solutions From The Gambia.

Climate change and environmental degradation are among the greatest threats to human health. Youth campaigners have very effectively focused global attention on the crisis, however children from the Global South are often under-represented (sometimes deliberately) in the dialogue. In The Gambia, West Africa, the impacts of climate change are already being directly experienced by the population, and this will worsen in coming years. There is strong government and community commitment to adapt to these challenges, as evidenced by The Gambia currently being the only country on target to meet the Paris agreement according to the Nationally Determined Contributions, but again children's voices are often missing-while their views could yield valuable additional insights. Here, we describe a "Climate Change Solutions Festival" that targeted and engaged school children from 13 to 18 years, and is to our knowledge, the first peer-to-peer (and student-to-professional) learning festival on climate change solutions for students in The Gambia. The event gave a unique insight into perceived climate change problems and scalable, affordable and sometimes very creative solutions that could be implemented in the local area. Logistical and practical methods for running the festival are shared, as well as details on all solutions demonstrated in enough detail to be duplicated. We also performed a narrative review of the most popular stalls to explore the scientific basis of these solutions and discuss these in a global context. Overall, we find extremely strong, grass-roots and student engagement in the Gambia and clear evidence of learning about climate change and the impacts of environmental degradation more broadly. Nevertheless, we reflect that in order to enact these proposed local solutions further steps to evaluate acceptability of adoption, feasibility within the communities, cost-benefit analyses and ability to scale solutions are needed. This could be the focus of future experiential learning activities with students and partnering stakeholders.

The Challenges of Working in the Heat Whilst Pregnant: Insights From Gambian Women Farmers in the Face of Climate Change.

BACKGROUND: The expected increase in heat in The Gambia is one of the most significant health threats caused by climate change. However, little is known about the gendered dynamics of exposure and response to heat stress, including women's perceived health risks, their adaptation strategies to heat, and their perceptions of climate change. This research project aims to answer the question of whether and how pregnant farmers in The Gambia perceive and act upon occupational heat stress and its health impacts on both themselves and their unborn children, against the backdrop of current and expected climatic changes. METHOD: In-depth semi-structured interviews were conducted with 12 women who practice subsistence farming and were either pregnant or had delivered within the past month in West Kiang, The Gambia. Participants were selected using purposive sampling. Translated interview transcripts were coded and qualitative thematic content analysis with an intersectional lens was used to arrive at the results. RESULTS: All women who participated in the study experience significant heat stress while working outdoors during pregnancy, with symptoms often including headache, dizziness, nausea, and chills. The most common adaptive techniques included resting in the shade while working, completing their work in multiple shorter time increments, taking medicine to reduce symptoms like headache, using water to cool down, and reducing the amount of area they cultivate. Layered identities, experiences, and household power structures related to age, migration, marital situation, socioeconomic status, and supportive social relationships shaped the extent to which women were able to prevent and reduce the effects of heat exposure during their work whilst pregnant. Women who participated in this study demonstrated high awareness of climate change and offered important insights into potential values, priorities, and mechanisms to enable effective adaptation. CONCLUSION: Our findings reveal many intersecting social and economic factors that shape the space within which women can make decisions and take adaptive action to reduce the impact of heat during their pregnancy. To improve the health of pregnant working women exposed to heat, these intersectionalities must be considered when supporting women to adapt their working practices and cope with heat stress.

Impact of Personal Cooling on Performance, Comfort and Heat Strain of Healthcare Workers in PPE, a Study From West Africa.

Background: Personal protective equipment (PPE) is an essential component of safely treating suspected or confirmed SARS-CoV-2 patients. PPE acts as a barrier to heat loss, therefore increasing the risk of thermal strain which may impact on cognitive function. Healthcare workers (HCWs) need to be able to prioritize and execute complex tasks effectively to ensure patient safety. This study evaluated pre-cooling and per-cooling methods on thermal strain, thermal comfort and cognitive function during simulated emergency management of an acutely unwell patient. Methods: This randomized controlled crossover trial was run at the Clinical Services Department of the Medical Research Unit The Gambia. Each participant attended two sessions (Cool and Control) in standard PPE. Cool involved pre-cooling with an ice slurry ingestion and per-cooling by wearing an ice-vest external to PPE. Results: Twelve participants completed both sessions. There was a significant increase in tympanic temperature in Control sessions at both 1 and 2 h in PPE (p = 0.01). No significant increase was seen during Cool. Effect estimate of Cool was -0.2°C (95% CI -0.43; 0.01, p = 0.06) post 1 h and -0.28°C (95% CI -0.57; 0.02, p = 0.06) post 2 h on tympanic temperature. Cool improved thermal comfort (p < 0.001), thermal sensation (p < 0.001), and thirst (p = 0.04). No difference on cognitive function was demonstrated using multilevel modeling. Discussion: Thermal strain in HCWs wearing PPE can be safely reduced using pre- and per-cooling methods external to PPE.

The Role of Nutrition in COVID-19 Susceptibility and Severity of Disease: A Systematic Review.

BACKGROUND: Many nutrients have powerful immunomodulatory actions with the potential to alter susceptibility to coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) infection, progression to symptoms, likelihood of severe disease, and survival. OBJECTIVE: The aim was to review the latest evidence on how malnutrition across all its forms (under- and overnutrition and micronutrient status) may influence both susceptibility to, and progression of, COVID-19. METHODS: We synthesized information on 13 nutrition-related components and their potential interactions with COVID-19: overweight, obesity, and diabetes; protein-energy malnutrition; anemia; vitamins A, C, D, and E; PUFAs; iron; selenium; zinc; antioxidants; and nutritional support. For each section we provide: 1) a landscape review of pertinent material; 2) a systematic search of the literature in PubMed and EMBASE databases, including a wide range of preprint servers; and 3) a screen of 6 clinical trial registries. All original research was considered, without restriction to study design, and included if it covered: 1) severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus (CoV) 2 (SARS-CoV-2), Middle East respiratory syndrome CoV (MERS-CoV), or SARS-CoV viruses and 2) disease susceptibility or 3) disease progression, and 4) the nutritional component of interest. Searches took place between 16 May and 11 August 2020. RESULTS: Across the 13 searches, 2732 articles from PubMed and EMBASE, 4164 articles from the preprint servers, and 433 trials were returned. In the final narrative synthesis, we include 22 published articles, 38 preprint articles, and 79 trials. CONCLUSIONS: Currently there is limited evidence that high-dose supplements of micronutrients will either prevent severe disease or speed up recovery. However, results of clinical trials are eagerly awaited. Given the known impacts of all forms of malnutrition on the immune system, public health strategies to reduce micronutrient deficiencies and undernutrition remain of critical importance. Furthermore, there is strong evidence that prevention of obesity and type 2 diabetes will reduce the risk of serious COVID-19 outcomes. This review is registered at PROSPERO as CRD42020186194.

Climate change and health in Southeast Asia - defining research priorities and the role of the Wellcome Trust Africa Asia Programmes.

This article summarises a recent virtual meeting organised by the Oxford University Clinical Research Unit in Vietnam on the topic of climate change and health, bringing local partners, faculty and external collaborators together from across the Wellcome and Oxford networks. Attendees included invited local and global climate scientists, clinicians, modelers, epidemiologists and community engagement practitioners, with a view to setting priorities, identifying synergies and fostering collaborations to help define the regional climate and health research agenda. In this summary paper, we outline the major themes and topics that were identified and what will be needed to take forward this research for the next decade. We aim to take a broad, collaborative approach to including climate science in our current portfolio where it touches on infectious diseases now, and more broadly in our future research directions. We will focus on strengthening our research portfolio on climate-sensitive diseases, and supplement this with high quality data obtained from internal studies and external collaborations, obtained by multiple methods, ranging from traditional epidemiology to innovative technology and artificial intelligence and community-led research. Through timely agenda setting and involvement of local stakeholders, we aim to help support and shape research into global heating and health in the region.

A protocol for an observational cohort study of heat strain and its effect on fetal wellbeing in pregnant farmers in The Gambia.

Introduction: Climate change predictions indicate that global temperatures are likely to exceed those seen in the last 200,000 years, rising by around 4°C above pre-industrial levels by 2100 (without effective mitigation of current emission rates). In regions of the world set to experience extreme temperatures, women often work outside in agriculture even during pregnancy. The implications of heat strain in pregnancy on maternal health and pregnancy outcome are not well understood. This protocol describes a study to assess the physiological response of pregnant women to environmental heat stress and the immediate effect this has on fetal wellbeing. Methods and analysis: The study will be performed in West Kiang district, The Gambia; a semi-arid zone in West Africa with daily maximum temperatures ranging from approximately 32 to 40°C. We will recruit 125 pregnant women of all ages who perform agricultural work during their pregnancy. Participants will be followed every two months until delivery. At each study visit fetal growth will be measured by ultrasound scan. During the course of their working day we will take the following measurements: continuous maternal physiological measurements (heart rate, respiratory rate, chest skin temperature and tri-axis accelerometer data); intermittent maternal tympanic core temperature, four point skin temperature, blood pressure; intermittent fetal heart rate and, if eligible, umbilical artery doppler; intermittent environmental measurements of air temperature, humidity, solar radiation and wind speed. Venous blood and urine will be collected at beginning and end of day for biomarkers of heat strain or fetal distress and hydration status.

Does sunlight drive seasonality of TB in Vietnam? A retrospective environmental ecological study of tuberculosis seasonality in Vietnam from 2010 to 2015.

BACKGROUND: Tuberculosis (TB) is a major global health burden, with an estimated quarter of the world's population being infected. The World Health Organization (WHO) launched the "End TB Strategy" in 2014 emphasising knowing the epidemic. WHO ranks Vietnam 12th in the world of high burden countries. TB spatial and temporal patterns have been observed globally with evidence of Vitamin D playing a role in seasonality. We explored the presence of temporal and spatial clustering of TB in Vietnam and their determinants to aid public health measures. METHODS: Data were collected by the National TB program of Vietnam from 2010 to 2015 and linked to the following datasets: socio-demographic characteristics; climatic variables; influenza-like-illness (ILI) incidence; geospatial data. The TB dataset was aggregated by province and quarter. Descriptive time series analyses using LOESS regression were completed per province to determine seasonality and trend. Harmonic regression was used to determine the amplitude of seasonality by province. A mixed-effect linear model was used with province and year as random effects and all other variables as fixed effects. RESULTS: There were 610,676 cases of TB notified between 2010 and 2015 in Vietnam. Heat maps of TB incidence per quarter per province showed substantial temporal and geospatial variation. Time series analysis demonstrated seasonality throughout the country, with peaks in spring/summer and troughs in autumn/winter. Incidence was consistently higher in the south, the three provinces with the highest incidence per 100,000 population were Tay Ninh, An Giang and Ho Chi Minh City. However, relative seasonal amplitude was more pronounced in the north. Mixed-effect linear model confirmed that TB incidence was associated with time and latitude. Of the demographic, socio-economic and health related variables, population density, percentage of those under 15 years of age, and HIV infection prevalence per province were associated with TB incidence. Of the climate variables, absolute humidity, average temperature and sunlight were associated with TB incidence. CONCLUSION: Preventative public health measures should be focused in the south of Viet Nam where incidence is highest. Vitamin D is unlikely to be a strong driver of seasonality but supplementation may play a role in a package of interventions.

A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis of Ventilator-associated Pneumonia in Adults in Asia: An Analysis of National Income Level on Incidence and Etiology.

Background: Ventilator-associated pneumonia (VAP) is the commonest hospital-acquired infection (HAI) in intensive care. In Asia, VAP is increasingly caused by resistant gram-negative organisms. Despite the global antimicrobial resistance crisis, the epidemiology of VAP is poorly documented in Asia. Methods: We systematically reviewed literature published on Ovid Medline, Embase Classic, and Embase from 1 January 1990 to 17 August 2017 to estimate incidence, prevalence, and etiology of VAP. We performed a meta-analysis to give pooled rates and rates by country income level. Results: Pooled incidence density of VAP was high in lower- and upper-middle-income countries and lower in high-income countries (18.5, 15.2, and 9.0 per 1000 ventilator-days, respectively). Acinetobacter baumannii (n = 3687 [26%]) and Pseudomonas aeruginosa (n = 3176 [22%]) were leading causes of VAP; Staphylococcus aureus caused 14% (n = 1999). Carbapenem resistance was common (57.1%). Conclusions: VAP remains a common cause of HAI, especially in low- and middle-income countries, and antibiotic resistance is high.

Clinical characteristics, organ failure, inflammatory markers and prediction of mortality in patients with community acquired bloodstream infection.

BACKGROUND: Community acquired bloodstream infection (CABSI) in low- and middle income countries is associated with a high mortality. This study describes the clinical manifestations, laboratory findings and correlation of SOFA and qSOFA with mortality in patients with CABSI in northern Vietnam. METHODS: This was a retrospective study of 393 patients with at least one positive blood culture with not more than one bacterium taken within 48 h of hospitalisation. Clinical characteristic and laboratory results from the first 24 h in hospital were collected. SOFA and qSOFA scores were calculated and their validity in this setting was evaluated. RESULTS: Among 393 patients with bacterial CABSI, approximately 80% (307/393) of patients had dysfunction of one or more organ on admission to the study hospital with the most common being that of coagulation (57.1% or 226/393). SOFA performed well in prediction of mortality in those patients initially admitted to the critical care unit (AUC 0.858, 95%CI 0.793-0.922) but poor in those admitted to medical wards (AUC 0.667, 95%CI 0.577-0.758). In contrast qSOFA had poor predictive validity in both settings (AUC 0.692, 95%CI 0.605-0.780 and AUC 0.527, 95%CI 0.424-0.630, respectively). The overall case fatality rate was 28%. HIV infection (HR = 3.145, p = 0.001), neutropenia (HR = 2.442, p = 0.002), SOFA score 1-point increment (HR = 1.19, p < 0.001) and infection with Enterobacteriaceae (HR = 1.722, p = 0.037) were independent risk factors for in-hospital mortality. CONCLUSIONS: Organ dysfunction was common among Vietnamese patients with CABSI and associated with high case fatality. SOFA and qSOFA both need to be further validated in this setting.

Ventilator-associated respiratory infection in a resource-restricted setting: impact and etiology.

BACKGROUND: Ventilator-associated respiratory infection (VARI) is a significant problem in resource-restricted intensive care units (ICUs), but differences in casemix and etiology means VARI in resource-restricted ICUs may be different from that found in resource-rich units. Data from these settings are vital to plan preventative interventions and assess their cost-effectiveness, but few are available. METHODS: We conducted a prospective observational study in four Vietnamese ICUs to assess the incidence and impact of VARI. Patients ≥ 16 years old and expected to be mechanically ventilated > 48 h were enrolled in the study and followed daily for 28 days following ICU admission. RESULTS: Four hundred fifty eligible patients were enrolled over 24 months, and after exclusions, 374 patients' data were analyzed. A total of 92/374 cases of VARI (21.7/1000 ventilator days) were diagnosed; 37 (9.9%) of these met ventilator-associated pneumonia (VAP) criteria (8.7/1000 ventilator days). Patients with any VARI, VAP, or VARI without VAP experienced increased hospital and ICU stay, ICU cost, and antibiotic use (p < 0.01 for all). This was also true for all VARI (p < 0.01 for all) with/without tetanus. There was no increased risk of in-hospital death in patients with VARI compared to those without (VAP HR 1.58, 95% CI 0.75-3.33, p = 0.23; VARI without VAP HR 0.40, 95% CI 0.14-1.17, p = 0.09). In patients with positive endotracheal aspirate cultures, most VARI was caused by Gram-negative organisms; the most frequent were Acinetobacter baumannii (32/73, 43.8%) Klebsiella pneumoniae (26/73, 35.6%), and Pseudomonas aeruginosa (24/73, 32.9%). 40/68 (58.8%) patients with positive cultures for these had carbapenem-resistant isolates. Patients with carbapenem-resistant VARI had significantly greater ICU costs than patients with carbapenem-susceptible isolates (6053 USD (IQR 3806-7824) vs 3131 USD (IQR 2108-7551), p = 0.04) and after correction for adequacy of initial antibiotics and APACHE II score, showed a trend towards increased risk of in-hospital death (HR 2.82, 95% CI 0.75-6.75, p = 0.15). CONCLUSIONS: VARI in a resource-restricted setting has limited impact on mortality, but shows significant association with increased patient costs, length of stay, and antibiotic use, particularly when caused by carbapenem-resistant bacteria. Evidence-based interventions to reduce VARI in these settings are urgently needed.

Determining the predictive equation for height from ulnar length in the Vietnamese population.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Height is an essential measurement in clinical medicine. It allows the calculation of body mass index, ideal body weight, basic energy requirements and tidal volumes. In many patient groups, such as the critically ill, height cannot be measured easily and surrogate anthropometric measures are used. Regression equations estimating height are specific to ethnicity. We aimed to develop the regression equation for Vietnamese men and women to predict height from ulna length and so improve prescription of life-saving treatment in the intensive care units. METHODS AND STUDY DESIGN: A cross-sectional survey of patients and relatives at the National Hospital for Tropical Diseases was undertaken. Ulna length, standing height and weight were measured. The first two thirds of participants' data, stratified by sex and age, were allocated to a model training group, the subsequent participants entered the validation group. Linear regression equations were calculated for the model group by sex, then applied to the validation group and assessed for precision. Other international equations were also compared. RESULTS: 498 males and 496 females were recruited. There was good correlation between ulna length and height in those aged 21-64, r=0.66, p<0.001 in males and females. The regression equations were: male: height = 85.61 + (3.16 x ulna length), female: height = 85.80 + (2.97 x ulna length). Equations from other populations were less accurate. CONCLUSIONS: The regression equations calculated for men and women aged 21-64 showed good correlation and can be used to predict height in those where direct measurement is impossible.

Estimating the burden of scrub typhus: A systematic review.

BACKGROUND: Scrub typhus is a vector-borne zoonotic disease that can be life-threatening. There are no licensed vaccines, or vector control efforts in place. Despite increasing awareness in endemic regions, the public health burden and global distribution of scrub typhus remains poorly known. METHODS: We systematically reviewed all literature from public health records, fever studies and reports available on the Ovid MEDLINE, Embase Classic + Embase and EconLit databases, to estimate the burden of scrub typhus since the year 2000. FINDINGS: In prospective fever studies from Asia, scrub typhus is a leading cause of treatable non-malarial febrile illness. Sero-epidemiological data also suggest that Orientia tsutsugamushi infection is common across Asia, with seroprevalence ranging from 9.3%-27.9% (median 22.2% IQR 18.6-25.7). A substantial apparent rise in minimum disease incidence (median 4.6/100,000/10 years, highest in China with 11.2/100,000/10 years) was reported through passive national surveillance systems in South Korea, Japan, China, and Thailand. Case fatality risks from areas of reduced drug-susceptibility are reported at 12.2% and 13.6% for South India and northern Thailand, respectively. Mortality reports vary widely around a median mortality of 6.0% for untreated and 1.4% for treated scrub typhus. Limited evidence suggests high mortality in complicated scrub typhus with CNS involvement (13.6% mortality), multi-organ dysfunction (24.1%) and high pregnancy miscarriage rates with poor neonatal outcomes. INTERPRETATION: Scrub typhus appears to be a truly neglected tropical disease mainly affecting rural populations, but increasingly also metropolitan areas. Rising minimum incidence rates have been reported over the past 8-10 years from countries with an established surveillance system. A wider distribution of scrub typhus beyond Asia is likely, based on reports from South America and Africa. Unfortunately, the quality and quantity of the available data on scrub typhus epidemiology is currently too limited for any economical, mathematical modeling or mapping approaches.