Evidence Synthesis of Observational Studies in Environmental Health: Lessons Learned from a Systematic Review on Traffic-Related Air Pollution.

BACKGROUND: There is a long tradition in environmental health of using frameworks for evidence synthesis, such as those of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency for its Integrated Science Assessments and the International Agency for Research on Cancer Monographs. The framework, Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development, and Evaluation (GRADE), was developed for evidence synthesis in clinical medicine. The U.S. Office of Health Assessment and Translation (OHAT) elaborated an approach for evidence synthesis in environmental health building on GRADE. METHODS: We applied a modified OHAT approach and a broader "narrative" assessment to assess the level of confidence in a large systematic review on traffic-related air pollution and health outcomes. DISCUSSION: We discuss several challenges with the OHAT approach and its implementation and suggest improvements for synthesizing evidence from observational studies in environmental health. We consider the determination of confidence using a formal rating scheme of up- and downgrading of certain factors, the treatment of every factor as equally important, and the lower initial confidence rating of observational studies to be fundamental issues in the OHAT approach. We argue that some observational studies can offer high-confidence evidence in environmental health. We note that heterogeneity in magnitude of effect estimates should generally not weaken the confidence in the evidence, and consistency of associations across study designs, populations, and exposure assessment methods may strengthen confidence in the evidence. We mention that publication bias should be explored beyond statistical methods and is likely limited when large and collaborative studies comprise most of the evidence and when accrued over several decades. We propose to identify possible key biases, their most likely direction, and their potential impacts on the results. We think that the OHAT approach and other GRADE-type frameworks require substantial modification to align better with features of environmental health questions and the studies that address them. We emphasize that a broader, "narrative" evidence assessment based on the systematic review may complement a formal GRADE-type evaluation. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP11532.

Long-Term Exposure to Traffic-Related Air Pollution and Diabetes: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

Objectives: We report results of a systematic review on the health effects of long-term traffic-related air pollution (TRAP) and diabetes in the adult population. Methods: An expert Panel appointed by the Health Effects Institute conducted this systematic review. We searched the PubMed and LUDOK databases for epidemiological studies from 1980 to July 2019. TRAP was defined based on a comprehensive protocol. Random-effects meta-analyses were performed. Confidence assessments were based on a modified Office for Health Assessment and Translation (OHAT) approach, complemented with a broader narrative synthesis. We extended our interpretation to include evidence published up to May 2022. Results: We considered 21 studies on diabetes. All meta-analytic estimates indicated higher diabetes risks with higher exposure. Exposure to NO2 was associated with higher diabetes prevalence (RR 1.09; 95% CI: 1.02; 1.17 per 10 µg/m3), but less pronounced for diabetes incidence (RR 1.04; 95% CI: 0.96; 1.13 per 10 µg/m3). The overall confidence in the evidence was rated moderate, strengthened by the addition of 5 recently published studies. Conclusion: There was moderate evidence for an association of long-term TRAP exposure with diabetes.

Air pollution: the emergence of a major global health risk factor.

Air pollution is now recognized by governments, international institutions and civil society as a major global public health risk factor. This is the result of the remarkable growth of scientific knowledge enabled by advances in epidemiology and exposure assessment. There is now a broad scientific consensus that exposure to air pollution increases mortality and morbidity from cardiovascular and respiratory disease and lung cancer and shortens life expectancy. Although air pollution has markedly declined in high-income countries, it was still responsible for some 4.9 million deaths in 2017, largely in low- and middle-income countries, where air pollution has increased over the past 25 y. As governments act to reduce air pollution there is a continuing need for research to strengthen the evidence on disease risk at very low and very high levels of air pollution, identify the air pollution sources most responsible for disease burden and assess the public health effectiveness of actions taken to improve air quality.

Interventions to reduce ambient particulate matter air pollution and their effect on health.

BACKGROUND: Ambient air pollution is associated with a large burden of disease in both high-income countries (HICs) and low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). To date, no systematic review has assessed the effectiveness of interventions aiming to reduce ambient air pollution. OBJECTIVES: To assess the effectiveness of interventions to reduce ambient particulate matter air pollution in reducing pollutant concentrations and improving associated health outcomes. SEARCH METHODS: We searched a range of electronic databases with diverse focuses, including health and biomedical research (CENTRAL, Cochrane Public Health Group Specialised Register, MEDLINE, Embase, PsycINFO), multidisciplinary research (Scopus, Science Citation Index), social sciences (Social Science Citation Index), urban planning and environment (Greenfile), and LMICs (Global Health Library regional indexes, WHOLIS). Additionally, we searched grey literature databases, multiple online trial registries, references of included studies and the contents of relevant journals in an attempt to identify unpublished and ongoing studies, and studies not identified by our search strategy. The final search date for all databases was 31 August 2016. SELECTION CRITERIA: Eligible for inclusion were randomized and cluster randomized controlled trials, as well as several non-randomized study designs, including controlled interrupted time-series studies (cITS-EPOC), interrupted time-series studies adhering to EPOC standards (ITS-EPOC), interrupted time-series studies not adhering to EPOC standards (ITS), controlled before-after studies adhering to EPOC standards (CBA-EPOC), and controlled before-after studies not adhering to EPOC standards (CBA); these were classified as main studies. Additionally, we included uncontrolled before-after studies (UBA) as supporting studies. We included studies that evaluated interventions to reduce ambient air pollution from industrial, residential, vehicular and multiple sources, with respect to their effect on mortality, morbidity and several air pollutant concentrations. We did not restrict studies based on the population, setting or comparison. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: After a calibration exercise among the author team, two authors independently assessed studies for inclusion, extracted data and assessed risk of bias. We conducted data extraction, risk of bias assessment and evidence synthesis only for main studies; we mapped supporting studies with regard to the types of intervention and setting. To assess risk of bias, we used the Graphic Appraisal Tool for Epidemiological studies (GATE) for correlation studies, as modified and employed by the Centre for Public Health Excellence at the UK National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE). For each intervention category, i.e. those targeting industrial, residential, vehicular and multiple sources, we synthesized evidence narratively, as well as graphically using harvest plots. MAIN RESULTS: We included 42 main studies assessing 38 unique interventions. These were heterogeneous with respect to setting; interventions were implemented in countries across the world, but most (79%) were implemented in HICs, with the remaining scattered across LMICs. Most interventions (76%) were implemented in urban or community settings.We identified a heterogeneous mix of interventions, including those aiming to address industrial (n = 5), residential (n = 7), vehicular (n = 22), and multiple sources (n = 4). Some specific interventions, such as low emission zones and stove exchanges, were assessed by several studies, whereas others, such as a wood burning ban, were only assessed by a single study.Most studies assessing health and air quality outcomes used routine monitoring data. Studies assessing health outcomes mostly investigated effects in the general population, while few studies assessed specific subgroups such as infants, children and the elderly. No identified studies assessed unintended or adverse effects.The judgements regarding the risk of bias of studies were mixed. Regarding health outcomes, we appraised eight studies (47%) as having no substantial risk of bias concerns, five studies (29%) as having some risk of bias concerns, and four studies (24%) as having serious risk of bias concerns. Regarding air quality outcomes, we judged 11 studies (31%) as having no substantial risk of bias concerns, 16 studies (46%) as having some risk of bias concerns, and eight studies (23%) as having serious risk of bias concerns.The evidence base, comprising non-randomized studies only, was of low or very low certainty for all intervention categories and primary outcomes. The narrative and graphical synthesis showed that evidence for effectiveness was mixed across the four intervention categories. For interventions targeting industrial, residential and multiple sources, a similar pattern emerged for both health and air quality outcomes, with essentially all studies observing either no clear association in either direction or a significant association favouring the intervention. The evidence base for interventions targeting vehicular sources was more heterogeneous, as a small number of studies did observe a significant association favouring the control. Overall, however, the evidence suggests that the assessed interventions do not worsen air quality or health. AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS: Given the heterogeneity across interventions, outcomes, and methods, it was difficult to derive overall conclusions regarding the effectiveness of interventions in terms of improved air quality or health. Most included studies observed either no significant association in either direction or an association favouring the intervention, with little evidence that the assessed interventions might be harmful. The evidence base highlights the challenges related to establishing a causal relationship between specific air pollution interventions and outcomes. In light of these challenges, the results on effectiveness should be interpreted with caution; it is important to emphasize that lack of evidence of an association is not equivalent to evidence of no association.We identified limited evidence for several world regions, notably Africa, the Middle East, Eastern Europe, Central Asia and Southeast Asia; decision-makers should prioritize the development and implementation of interventions in these settings. In the future, as new policies are introduced, decision-makers should consider a built-in evaluation component, which could facilitate more systematic and comprehensive evaluations. These could assess effectiveness, but also aspects of feasibility, fidelity and acceptability.The production of higher quality and more uniform evidence would be helpful in informing decisions. Researchers should strive to sufficiently account for confounding, assess the impact of methodological decisions through the conduct and communication of sensitivity analyses, and improve the reporting of methods, and other aspects of the study, most importantly the description of the intervention and the context in which it is implemented.

Accountability Studies on Air Pollution and Health: the HEI Experience.

PURPOSE OF REVIEW: Assessing health effects of air quality interventions is of ever-increasing interest. Given the prominent role Health Effects Institute (HEI) has played in accountability research, this review focuses on HEI's recent experiences, the challenges it has encountered, and provides possible directions for future research. RECENT FINDINGS: Most accountability studies to date have focused on effects of relatively short-term, local-scale, and sometimes temporary interventions. Only a few recent accountability studies have sought to investigate large-scale, multiyear regulatory programs. Common challenges encountered include lack of statistical power, how to account appropriately for background trends in air quality and health, and difficulties in direct attribution of changes in air pollution and health to a single intervention among many regulatory actions. New methods have been developed for accountability research that has shown promise addressing some of those challenges, including use of causal inference methods. These and other approaches that would enhance the attribution of changes in air quality and health directly to an intervention should continue to be further explored. In addition, integration of social and behavioral sciences in accountability research is warranted, and climate related co-benefits and dis-benefits may be considered.

Respiratory effects of a reduction in outdoor air pollution concentrations.

BACKGROUND: Air pollution has been associated with respiratory health effects. There is little direct evidence that reductions in air pollution related to abatement policies lead to actual improvement in respiratory health. We assessed whether a reduction in (traffic policy-related) air pollution concentrations was associated with changes in respiratory health. METHODS: Air pollution concentrations and respiratory health were measured in 2008 and 2010 at eight busy urban streets and at four suburban background control locations. Respiratory function was assessed twice in 661 residents by spirometry and measurements of airway resistance. Nitric oxide (NO) in exhaled air was measured as a marker for airway inflammation. RESULTS: Air pollution concentrations were lower in 2010 than in 2008. The declines in pollutants varied among locations, with the largest decline observed in a street with a large reduction in traffic intensity. In regression analyses adjusted for important covariates, reductions in concentrations of soot, NO2, NOx, Cu, and Fe were associated with increases in forced vital capacity (FVC) (∼1% increase per interquartile range [IQR] decline). Airway resistance decreased with a decline in particulate matter (PM10) and PM2.5 (9% per IQR), although these associations were somewhat less consistent. No associations were found with exhaled NO. Results were driven largely by one street where traffic-related air pollution showed the largest reduction. Forced expiratory volume and FVC improved by 3% to 6% in residents of this street compared with suburban background residents. This was accompanied by a suggestive reduction in airway resistance. CONCLUSIONS: Reductions in air pollution may lead to small improvements in respiratory function.

Impact of low emission zones and local traffic policies on ambient air pollution concentrations.

BACKGROUND: Evaluations of the effectiveness of air pollution policy interventions are scarce. This study investigated air pollution at street level before and after implementation of local traffic policies including low emission zones (LEZ) directed at heavy duty vehicles (trucks) in five Dutch cities. METHODS: Measurements of PM(10), PM(2.5), 'soot', NO(2), NO(x), and elemental composition of PM(10) and PM(2.5) were conducted simultaneously at eight streets, six urban background locations and four suburban background locations before (2008) and two years after implementation of the policies (2010). The four suburban locations were selected as control locations to account for generic air pollution trends and weather differences. RESULTS: All pollutant concentrations were lower in 2010 than in 2008. For traffic-related pollutants including 'soot' and NO(x) and elemental composition (Cr, Cu, Fe) the decrease did not differ significantly between the intervention locations and the suburban control locations. Only for PM(2.5) reductions were considerably larger at urban streets (30%) and urban background locations (27%) than at the matching suburban control locations (20%). In one urban street where traffic intensity was reduced with 50%, 'soot', NO(x) and NO(2) concentrations were reduced substantially more (41, 36 and 25%) than at the corresponding suburban control location (22, 14 and 7%). CONCLUSION: With the exception of one urban street where traffic flows were drastically reduced, the local traffic policies including LEZ were too modest to produce significant decreases in traffic-related air pollution concentrations.

Contrasts in oxidative potential and other particulate matter characteristics collected near major streets and background locations.

BACKGROUND: Measuring the oxidative potential of airborne particulate matter (PM) may provide a more health-based exposure measure by integrating various biologically relevant properties of PM into a single predictor of biological activity. OBJECTIVES: We aimed to assess the contrast in oxidative potential of PM collected at major urban streets and background locations, the associaton of oxidative potential with other PM characteristics, and the oxidative potential in different PM size fractions. METHODS: Measurements of PM with aerodynamic diameter ≤ 10 µm (PM10), PM with aerodynamic diameter ≤ 2.5 µm (PM2.5), soot, elemental composition, and oxidative potential of PM were conducted simultaneously in samples from 8 major streets and 10 urban and suburban background locations in the Netherlands. Six 1-week measurements were performed at each location over a 6-month period in 2008. Oxidative potential was measured as the ability to generate hydroxyl radicals in the presence of hydrogen peroxide in all PM10 samples and a subset of PM2.5 samples. RESULTS: The PM10 oxidative potential of samples from major streets was 3.6 times higher than at urban background locations, exceeding the contrast for PM mass, soot, and all measured chemical PM characteristics. The contrast between major streets and suburban background locations was even higher (factor of 6.5). Oxidative potential was highly correlated with soot, barium, chromium, copper, iron, and manganese. Oxidative potential of PM10 was 4.6 times higher than the oxidative potential of PM2.5 when expressed per volume unit and 3.1 times higher when expressed per mass unit. CONCLUSIONS: The oxidative potential of PM near major urban roads was highly elevated compared with urban and suburban background locations, and the contrast was greater than that for any other measured PM characteristic.

Health benefits of traffic-related air pollution reduction in different socioeconomic groups: the effect of low-emission zoning in Rome.

OBJECTIVES: Few studies have assessed the effects of policies aimed to reduce traffic-related air pollution. The aims of this study were to evaluate the impact, in terms of air quality and health effects, of two low-emission zones established in Rome in the period 2001-2005 and to assess the impact by socioeconomic position (SEP) of the population. METHODS: We evaluated the effects of the intervention on various stages in the full-chain model, that is, pressure (number and age distribution of cars), emissions, PM(10) and NO(2) concentrations, population exposure and years of life gained (YLG). The impact was evaluated according to a small-area indicator of SEP. RESULTS: During the period 2001-2005, there was a decrease in the total number of cars (-3.8%), NO(2) and PM(10) emissions and concentrations (from 22.9 to 17.4 µg/m(3) for NO(2) and from 7.8 to 6.2 µg/m(3) for PM(10)), and in the residents' exposure. In the two low-emission zones, there was an additional decrease in air pollution concentrations (NO(2): -4.13 and -2.99 µg/m(3); PM(10): -0.70 and -0.47 µg/m(3)). As a result of the policy, 264 522 residents living along busy roads gained 3.4 days per person (921 YLG per 100,000) for NO(2) reduction. The gain was larger for people in the highest SEP group (1387 YLG per 100,000) than for residents in the lowest SEP group (340 YLG per 100,000). CONCLUSION: The traffic policy in Rome was effective in reducing traffic-related air pollution, but most of the health gains were found in well-off residents.

Do the health benefits of cycling outweigh the risks? / Os benefícios à saúde em andar de bicicleta superam os riscos?

Although from a societal point of view a modal shift from car to bicycle may have beneficial health effects due to decreased air pollution emissions and increased levels of physical activity, shifts in individual adverse health effects such as higher exposure to air pollution and risk of a traffic accident may prevail. We have summarized the literature for air pollution, traffic accidents, and physical activity using systematic reviews supplemented with recent key studies. We quantified the impact on all-cause mortality when 500,000 people would make a transition from car to bicycle for short trips on a daily basis in the Netherlands. We estimate that beneficial effects of increased physical activity are substantially larger (3-14 months gained) than the potential mortality effect of increased inhaled air pollution doses (0.8-40 days lost) and the increase in traffic accidents (5-9 days lost). Societal benefits are even larger because of a modest reduction in air pollution and traffic accidents. On average, the estimated health benefits of cycling were substantially larger than the risks relative to car driving for individuals shifting their mode of transport.

Embora uma mudança do uso de carro para bicicleta possa trazer efeitos benéficos para a saúde devido à diminuição da poluição do ar e a um aumento da atividade física, esta mudança também pode trazer efeitos adversos à saúde como exposição à poluição e risco de acidentes de trânsito, os quais podem superar os benefícios. Nós resumimos a literatura sobre poluição do ar, acidentes de trânsito e atividade física, utilizando revisões sistemáticas suplementadas com estudos recentes. Quantificamos também o impacto na causa de mortalidade se 500 mil pessoas fizessem a transição de carro para bicicleta em viagens curtas diárias na Holanda. Estimamos que os efeitos benéficos do aumento da atividade física são substancialmente maiores do que o efeito potencial da mortalidade por inalação de ar poluído e aumento de acidentes de trânsito. Os benefícios sociais são ainda maiores devido a uma modesta redução na poluição do ar e nos acidentes de trânsito. Em média, os benefícios de saúde devido ao uso da bicicleta são substancialmente maiores do que os riscos relativos a dirigir um carro para pessoas em transição do modo de transporte.

Do the health benefits of cycling outweigh the risks?

Although from a societal point of view a modal shift from car to bicycle may have beneficial health effects due to decreased air pollution emissions and increased levels of physical activity, shifts in individual adverse health effects such as higher exposure to air pollution and risk of a traffic accident may prevail. We have summarized the literature for air pollution, traffic accidents, and physical activity using systematic reviews supplemented with recent key studies. We quantified the impact on all-cause mortality when 500,000 people would make a transition from car to bicycle for short trips on a daily basis in the Netherlands. We estimate that beneficial effects of increased physical activity are substantially larger (3-14 months gained) than the potential mortality effect of increased inhaled air pollution doses (0.8-40 days lost) and the increase in traffic accidents (5-9 days lost). Societal benefits are even larger because of a modest reduction in air pollution and traffic accidents. On average, the estimated health benefits of cycling were substantially larger than the risks relative to car driving for individuals shifting their mode of transport.

Comparison of short-term exposure to particle number, PM10 and soot concentrations on three (sub) urban locations.

Recent interest has focused on the health effects of ultrafine particles because of the documented toxicity and the larger concentration contrast near motorways of UFP than for PM10 or PM2.5. There are only few studies that have measured UFP at inner-city streets simultaneously with other PM components. The aim of this study was to compare the contrast of UFP, PM(10) and soot measured simultaneously at 3 inner-city locations, namely a moderately busy street (15,000 vehicles/day), a city and a suburban background location. Simultaneously, measurements of particle number concentrations (PNC), PM(10) and soot have been conducted on three locations in and around Utrecht, a medium-sized city in the Netherlands for 20 weekdays in autumn 2008. Measurements were done for 6-h during afternoon and early evening. The mean PNC at the street location was more than 3 times higher than at the two background locations. The contrast was similar for soot concentrations. In PM(10) concentrations less contrast was found, namely 1.8 times. Mean PNC concentrations were poorly correlated with PM(10) and soot. At the street location, high temporal variation of PNC concentrations occurred within each sampling day, probably related to variations in traffic volumes, high-emission individual vehicles and wind direction. Temporal variation was smaller at the two background locations. Occasional unexplained short-term peaks occurred at the suburban background location. A relatively high correlation between PNC minute values at the two background locations was found, pointing to similar area-wide sources. Typically low correlations were found with the street locations, consistent with the dominant impact of local traffic. A large contrast between two background locations and a moderately busy urban street location was found for PNC and soot, comparable to previous studies of much busier motorways. Temporal variation of PNC was higher at the street location and uncorrelated with background variations.

Do the health benefits of cycling outweigh the risks?

BACKGROUND: Although from a societal point of view a modal shift from car to bicycle may have beneficial health effects due to decreased air pollution emissions, decreased greenhouse gas emissions, and increased levels of physical activity, shifts in individual adverse health effects such as higher exposure to air pollution and risk of a traffic accident may prevail. OBJECTIVE: We describe whether the health benefits from the increased physical activity of a modal shift for urban commutes outweigh the health risks. DATA SOURCES AND EXTRACTION: We have summarized the literature for air pollution, traffic accidents, and physical activity using systematic reviews supplemented with recent key studies. DATA SYNTHESIS: We quantified the impact on all-cause mortality when 500,000 people would make a transition from car to bicycle for short trips on a daily basis in the Netherlands. We have expressed mortality impacts in life-years gained or lost, using life table calculations. For individuals who shift from car to bicycle, we estimated that beneficial effects of increased physical activity are substantially larger (3-14 months gained) than the potential mortality effect of increased inhaled air pollution doses (0.8-40 days lost) and the increase in traffic accidents (5-9 days lost). Societal benefits are even larger because of a modest reduction in air pollution and greenhouse gas emissions and traffic accidents. CONCLUSIONS: On average, the estimated health benefits of cycling were substantially larger than the risks relative to car driving for individuals shifting their mode of transport.