Comparative Microbiome Analysis of Three Epidemiologically Important Tick Species in Latvia.

(1) Background: Amplicon-based 16S rRNA profiling is widely used to study whole communities of prokaryotes in many niches. Here, we comparatively examined the microbial composition of three tick species, Ixodes ricinus, Ixodes persulcatus and Dermacentor reticulatus, which were field-collected in Latvia. (2) Methods: Tick DNA samples were used for microbiome analysis targeting bacterial 16S rDNA using next-generation sequencing (NGS). (3) Results: The results showed significant differences in microbial species diversity and composition by tick species and life stage. A close similarity between microbiomes of I. ricinus and I. persulcatus ticks was observed, while the D. reticulatus microbiome composition appeared to be more distinct. Significant differences in alpha and beta microbial diversity were observed between Ixodes tick life stages and sexes, with lower taxa richness indexes obtained for female ticks. The Francisella genus was closely associated with D. reticulatus ticks, while endosymbionts Candidatus Midichlorii and Candidatus Lariskella were associated with I. ricinus and I. persulcatus females, respectively. In I. ricinus females, the endosymbiont load negatively correlated with the presence of the Rickettsia genus. (4) Conclusions: The results of this study revealed important associations between ticks and their microbial community and highlighted the microbiome features of three tick species in Latvia.

Effectiveness of Tick-borne Encephalitis Vaccines in Children, Latvia, 2018-2020.

BACKGROUND: Tick-borne encephalitis (TBE) is an infection by the tick-borne encephalitis virus (TBEV) with symptoms of central nervous system inflammation. TBE is endemic in Latvia and other parts of Europe. TBE vaccination is recommended for children in Latvia. TBE vaccine effectiveness (VE) was estimated in Latvia, a country with high TBE incidence, providing the first VE estimates against a range of TBEV infection outcomes in children 1-15 years-of-age. METHODS: Riga Stradins University conducted nationwide surveillance for suspected TBE cases. Serum and cerebrospinal fluid were ELISA tested for TBEV-specific IgG and IgM antibodies. A fully vaccinated child was an individual who had received the 3-dose primary series and appropriately timed boosters. The proportion of laboratory-confirmed TBE cases fully vaccinated (PCV) was determined from interviews and medical records. The proportion of the general population fully vaccinated (PPV) was determined from national surveys conducted in 2019 and 2020. TBE VE in children 1-15 years-of-age was estimated using the screening method: VE = 1 - [PCV/(1 - PCV)/PPV/(1 - PPV)]. RESULTS: From 2018 to 2020, surveillance identified 36 TBE cases in children 1-15 years-of-age; all were hospitalized, 5 (13.9%) for >12 days. Of the TBE cases, 94.4% (34/36) were unvaccinated compared with 43.8% of children in the general population. VE against TBE hospitalization in children 1-15 years-of-age was 94.9% (95% confidence interval 63.1-99.3). In 2018-2020, vaccination in children 1-15 years-of-age averted 39 hospitalized TBE cases. CONCLUSION: Pediatric TBE vaccines were highly effective in preventing TBE in children. Increasing TBE vaccine uptake in children is essential to maximize the public health impact of TBE vaccination.

Estimated incubation period distributions of mpox using cases from two international European festivals and outbreaks in a club in Berlin, May to June 2022.

BackgroundSince May 2022, an mpox outbreak affecting primarily men who have sex with men (MSM) has occurred in numerous non-endemic countries worldwide. As MSM frequently reported multiple sexual encounters in this outbreak, reliably determining the time of infection is difficult; consequently, estimation of the incubation period is challenging.AimWe aimed to provide valid and precise estimates of the incubation period distribution of mpox by using cases associated with early outbreak settings where infection likely occurred.MethodsColleagues in European countries were invited to provide information on exposure intervals and date of symptom onset for mpox cases who attended a fetish festival in Antwerp, Belgium, a gay pride festival in Gran Canaria, Spain or a particular club in Berlin, Germany, where early mpox outbreaks occurred. Cases of these outbreaks were pooled; doubly censored models using the log-normal, Weibull and Gamma distributions were fitted to estimate the incubation period distribution.ResultsWe included data on 122 laboratory-confirmed cases from 10 European countries. Depending on the distribution used, the median incubation period ranged between 8 and 9 days, with 5th and 95th percentiles ranging from 2 to 3 and from 20 to 23 days, respectively. The shortest interval that included 50% of incubation periods spanned 8 days (4-11 days).ConclusionCurrent public health management of close contacts should consider that in approximately 5% of cases, the incubation period exceeds the commonly used monitoring period of 21 days.

Effectiveness of tick-borne encephalitis vaccination in Latvia, 2018-2020: an observational study.

OBJECTIVES: Tick-borne encephalitis (TBE) is an infection by the tick-borne encephalitis virus (TBEV) that results in symptoms of central nervous system inflammation. TBE is endemic in Latvia and other European countries. TBE vaccines are commonly used in Latvia, but vaccine effectiveness estimates are limited. METHODS: Study staff at Riga Stradins University conducted nationwide active surveillance for TBEV infections. Serum and cerebrospinal fluid were ELISA-tested for TBEV-specific IgG and IgM antibodies. Vaccination history was collected by interview and medical record review. Utilizing data from surveillance and population surveys, vaccine effectiveness (with 95% CIs) and cases averted were estimated using the screening method. RESULTS: There were 587 laboratory-identified TBE cases from 2018 to 2020; 98.1% (576/587) were unvaccinated, 1.5% (9/587) were unknown or partially vaccinated, and 0.3% (2/587) were fully vaccinated (three-dose primary series and appropriately timed boosters). TBE resulted in the death of 1.7% (10/587) of TBE cases. TBE vaccine history was ascertained from 92.0% (13 247/14 399) people from the general population: 38.6% (5113/13 247) were unvaccinated, 26.3% (3484/13 247) were fully vaccinated, and 35.1% (4650/13 247) were partially vaccinated. TBE vaccine effectiveness was 99.5% (98.0-99.9) against TBE, 99.5% (97.9-99.9) against TBE hospitalization, 99.3% (94.8-99.9) against moderate/severe TBE, and 99.2% (94.4-99.9) against TBE hospitalization >12 days. From 2018 to 2020, vaccination averted 906 TBE cases, including 20 deaths. DISCUSSION: TBE vaccine was highly effective in preventing TBE, moderate and severe disease, and prolonged hospitalization. To prevent life-threatening TBE, TBE vaccine uptake and compliance should be increased in Latvia and other European regions where TBE is endemic.

Occurrence of Cryptosporidium spp. and Giardia spp. Infection in Humans in Latvia: Evidence of Underdiagnosed and Underreported Cases.

Background and Objectives: Protozoan parasites-Cryptosporidium and Giardia-are important causes of diarrhea with an underestimated short-term burden on childhood growth and wellbeing in children under five years of age. The main transmission routes for both parasites are food and drinking water; transmission from person to person; and, due to their zoonotic nature, from domestic or wild animals to humans. The aims of the present study were to summarize the officially reported human cases of cryptosporidiosis and giardiasis in Latvia and to assess the occurrence of Cryptosporidium and Giardia in children within a prospective prevalence study. Materials and Methods: The number of officially reported cases of cryptosporidiosis and giardiasis in the time period of 2000-2020 was collected from the Centre for Disease Prevention and Control of Latvia. Data from a clinical diagnostic laboratory were included in the study in the period from 1 January 2008 to 31 December 2018. Additionally, a prospective study was performed, and fecal samples were collected from unique 0-17-year-old patients from January to February 2021 and tested using fluorescent microscopy. Results: Overall, during the 20-year period, 71 cases (mean per year = 9) of cryptosporidiosis and 1020 (mean per year = 34) cases of giardiasis were officially reported in Latvia. Meanwhile, within the prospective study, we found 35 (6.0%; 95%CI 4.3-8.1) Cryptosporidium and 42 (7.2%; 95%CI 5.3-9.6) Giardia cases. Conclusions: Here, we provide clear proof that both Cryptosporidium and Giardia are underdiagnosed in Latvia, which could also be true for neighboring Baltic and European countries, where a low number of cases are officially reported. Therefore, we highlight the hypothesis that the actual number of cryptosporidiosis and giardiasis human cases in the Baltic states is higher than that officially reported, including in Latvia.

Large-scale countrywide screening for tick-borne pathogens in field-collected ticks in Latvia during 2017-2019.

BACKGROUND: Tick-borne diseases are of substantial concern worldwide in both humans and animals. Several hard tick species are of medical and veterinary interest in Europe, and changes in the range of tick species can affect the spread of zoonotic pathogens. The aim of the present study was to map the current prevalence and distribution pattern of ticks and related tick-borne pathogens in Latvia, a Baltic state in northern Europe. METHODS: Nearly 4600 Ixodes ricinus, I. persulcatus and Dermacentor reticulatus tick samples were collected in all regions of Latvia during 2017-2019 and were screened by molecular methods to reveal the prevalence and distribution pattern of a wide spectrum of tick-borne pathogens. RESULTS: New localities of D. reticulatus occurrence were found in western and central Latvia, including the Riga region, indicating that the northern border of D. reticulatus in Europe has moved farther to the north. Among the analyzed ticks, 33.42% carried at least one tick-borne pathogen, and 5.55% of tick samples were positive for two or three pathogens. A higher overall prevalence of tick-borne pathogens was observed in I. ricinus (34.92%) and I. persulcatus (31.65%) than in D. reticulatus (24.2%). The molecular analysis revealed the presence of tick-borne encephalitis virus, Babesia spp., Borrelia spp., Anaplasma phagocytophilum and Rickettsia spp. Overall, 15 and 7 tick-borne pathogen species were detected in Ixodes spp. and D. reticulatus ticks, respectively. This is the first report of Borrelia miyamotoi in Latvian field-collected ticks. CONCLUSIONS: This large-scale countrywide study provides a snapshot of the current distribution patterns of Ixodes and Dermacentor ticks in Latvia and gives us a reliable overview of tick-borne pathogens in Latvian field-collected ticks.

Longitudinal study of prevalence and spatio-temporal distribution of Borrelia burgdorferi sensu lato in ticks from three defined habitats in Latvia, 1999-2010.

Members of the Borrelia burgdorferi sensu lato (s.l.) species complex are known to cause human Lyme borreliosis. Because of longevity of some reservoir hosts and the Ixodes tick vectors' life cycle, long-term studies are required to better understand species and population dynamics of these bacteria in their natural habitats. Ticks were collected between 1999 and 2010 in three ecologically different habitats in Latvia. We used multilocus sequence typing utilizing eight chromosomally located housekeeping genes to obtain information about species and population fluctuations and/or stability of B. burgdorferi s.l. in these habitats. The average prevalence over all years was 18.9%. From initial high-infection prevalences of 25.5%, 33.1% and 31.8%, from 2002 onwards the infection rates steadily decreased to 7.3%. Borrelia afzelii and Borrelia garinii were the most commonly found genospecies but striking local differences were obvious. In one habitat, a significant shift from rodent-associated to bird-associated Borrelia species was noted whilst in the other habitats, Borrelia species composition was relatively stable over time. Sequence types (STs) showed a random spatial and temporal distribution. These results demonstrated that there are temporal regional changes and extrapolations from one habitat to the next are not possible.

Tick-borne encephalitis: A 43-year summary of epidemiological and clinical data from Latvia (1973 to 2016).

BACKGROUND: The incidence of tick-borne encephalitis (TBE) varies significantly over time. To better understand the annual incidence of all TBE cases in Latvia we investigated the disease burden in the country from 1973-2016 using several available sources and case definitions. METHODS: We identified cases of TBE from an electronic database (maintained by the Centre for Disease Prevention and Control of Latvia [CDPC]) by the use of ICD-10 diagnosis codes for TBE (A84; A84.0; A84.1; A84.8; A84.9). In addition, previously unreported TBE cases were found by review of TBE diagnoses according to ICD-10 codes in four hospital databases. RESULTS: From 1973 to 2016 a total of 15,193 TBE cases were reported to the CDPC, 2,819 of which were reported from January 2007 through December 2016, additionally for this time period, 104 cases were identified via hospital survey. From all 2,923 reported cases (2007-2016), 1,973 met TBE case definition criteria and were included in the TBE study analysis. The highest average 10 year incidence was observed from 1990-1999 (27.9 cases per 100,000; range 4.6-53.0), however, the average 10-year incidence from 2007-2016 using officially adopted TBE case definition was 9.6 cases per 100,000 (range 5.8-14.6). For this 10-year time period most cases were adults (95.1%) and male (52.2%). The most common clinical form of TBE was meningitis (90.6%). A tick bite prior to TBE onset was reported in 60.6% of TBE cases and 98.2% of cases were not vaccinated against TBE. CONCLUSION: The data demonstrate that the incidence of TBE varies by about one third based on the case definition used. TBE occurs almost entirely in the unvaccinated population. Regular TBE awareness campaigns could encourage the population in Latvia to use protective measures to further control TBE in the country, either via vaccination or tick avoidance.

Prevalence and phylogenetic analysis of Babesia spp. in Ixodes ricinus and Ixodes persulcatus ticks in Latvia.

Babesia spp. are tick-borne protozoan parasites that have been reported in many European countries and are considered to be emerging pathogens. Several Babesia spp. have been identified in ticks in Latvia. Recently, canine babesiosis cases were diagnosed for the first time in Latvia; therefore, continued studies on the prevalence and occurrence of new species are warranted. In the present study, questing tick samples collected in 2005-2007 were screened for the presence of Babesia spp.; in total, 432 Ixodes ricinus and 693 Ixodes persulcatus ticks were analyzed. Babesia spp. were detected in 1.4% of the I. ricinus ticks and in 1.9% of I. persulcatus ticks. Sequencing revealed that ixodid ticks in Latvia contained Babesia microti, Babesia capreoli, and Babesia venatorum. Babesia microti was the most prevalent species, accounting for 58% of all positive samples; moreover, two distinct B. microti genotypes were identified. Phylogenetic analysis of the full-length 18S rRNA gene of two B. capreoli/B. divergens isolates indicated a closer relationship to the B. capreoli clade than B. divergens. This is the first report of B. venatorum in I. persulcatus ticks in Latvia. Our results suggest that both I. ricinus and I. persulcatus ticks play important roles in the epidemiology of these zoonotic pathogens in Latvia.

Multilocus sequence typing using mitochondrial genes (mtMLST) reveals geographic population structure of Ixodes ricinus ticks.

The hard tick Ixodes ricinus is the principal vector of Lyme borreliosis (LB) group spirochaetes in Europe, but it also transmits a large number of other microbial pathogens that are of importance to animal and human health. Here, we characterise geographically distinct populations of this important ectoparasite based on multilocus sequence typing (MLST) of multiple mitochondrial (mt) genes (mtMLST). Internal fragments of approximately 500 bp were amplified and sequenced for 6 protein-encoding and ribosomal genes (atp6, coi, coii, coiii, cytB, and 12s). The samples analysed consisted of 506 questing nymphs collected in Britain and Latvia in 2006-2008 and in Latvia in 2002. Although little genetic structure has previously been observed in I. ricinus ticks among Europe, our data could clearly differentiate these 2 populations. Here, we argue that this novel scheme provides additional phylogenetic resolution which is important for understanding the genetic and geographic structure of I. ricinus populations. This in turn will benefit monitoring and management of tick-borne diseases.

Detection and characterization of tick-borne encephalitis virus in Baltic countries and eastern Poland.

Ticks were collected from the vegetation in the Baltic countries Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and eastern Poland and analyzed for the presence of tick-borne encephalitis virus (TBEV) by amplification of the partial E and NS3 genes. In Estonia we found statistically significant differences in the TBEV prevalence between I. persulcatus and I. ricinus ticks (4.23% and 0.42%, respectively). In Latvia, the difference in TBEV prevalence between the two species was not statistically significant (1.02% for I. persulcatus and 1.51% for I. ricinus, respectively). In Lithuania and Poland TBEV was detected in 0.24% and 0.11% of I. ricinus ticks, respectively. Genetic characterization of the partial E and NS3 sequences demonstrated that the TBEV strains belonged to the European subtype in all countries, as well as to the Siberian subtype in Estonia. We also found that in areas where ranges of two tick species overlap, the TBEV subtypes may be detected not only in their natural vector, but also in sympatric tick species.

Driving forces for changes in geographical distribution of Ixodes ricinus ticks in Europe.

Many factors are involved in determining the latitudinal and altitudinal spread of the important tick vector Ixodes ricinus (Acari: Ixodidae) in Europe, as well as in changes in the distribution within its prior endemic zones. This paper builds on published literature and unpublished expert opinion from the VBORNET network with the aim of reviewing the evidence for these changes in Europe and discusses the many climatic, ecological, landscape and anthropogenic drivers. These can be divided into those directly related to climatic change, contributing to an expansion in the tick's geographic range at extremes of altitude in central Europe, and at extremes of latitude in Scandinavia; those related to changes in the distribution of tick hosts, particularly roe deer and other cervids; other ecological changes such as habitat connectivity and changes in land management; and finally, anthropogenically induced changes. These factors are strongly interlinked and often not well quantified. Although a change in climate plays an important role in certain geographic regions, for much of Europe it is non-climatic factors that are becoming increasingly important. How we manage habitats on a landscape scale, and the changes in the distribution and abundance of tick hosts are important considerations during our assessment and management of the public health risks associated with ticks and tick-borne disease issues in 21(st) century Europe. Better understanding and mapping of the spread of I. ricinus (and changes in its abundance) is, however, essential to assess the risk of the spread of infections transmitted by this vector species. Enhanced tick surveillance with harmonized approaches for comparison of data enabling the follow-up of trends at EU level will improve the messages on risk related to tick-borne diseases to policy makers, other stake holders and to the general public.

Association between Anaplasma phagocytophilum seroprevalence in dogs and distribution of Ixodes ricinus and Ixodes persulcatus ticks in Latvia.

Anaplasma phagocytophilum has been detected in ticks in Latvia; however, this is the first study to investigate this pathogen in dogs in Latvia. The aims of this study were: (i) to determine A. phagocytophilum seroprevalence in dogs, (ii) to correlate A. phagocytophilum seroprevalence in dogs with the geographic distribution of the tick species Ixodes ricinus and Ixodes persulcatus, and (iii) to determine if seroprevalence for A. phagocytophilum is higher in dogs with clinical signs suggestive of canine granulocytic anaplasmosis (CGA). Peripheral venous blood samples were collected from 3 dog groups: (i) clinically healthy dogs (HD, n=400), (ii) clinically healthy hunting dogs (HHD, n=41), and (iii) dogs with a clinical suspicion of anaplasmosis (SD, n=29). Sampling was carried out in regions inhabited by I. ricinus (IR), I. persulcatus (IP), and in regions where both tick species were present (M). SNAP 4Dx test (IDEXX) was used to detect antibodies against A. phagocytophilum in the blood of all dogs; nested PCR was performed in selected dogs of the SD group. Seroprevalence for A. phagocytophilum was calculated and correlated with the prevalent tick species in the region. A. phagocytophilum seroprevalence was 11.0% in HD, 12% in HHD, and 17% in SD with no significant differences among groups. In the IR region, seroprevalence was 12.5% (34/272) while seroprevalence in the M region was 17% (13/76), and both were significantly higher than the seroprevalence of 2% in the IP region (2/93; p<0.0005). One CGA case was diagnosed. We conclude that A. phagocytophilum seroprevalence in Latvia is within the range reported from other European countries. CGA should be included in the differential list in Latvian dogs with appropriate clinical signs and laboratory abnormalities, especially in I. ricinus habitat areas.

Host migration impacts on the phylogeography of Lyme Borreliosis spirochaete species in Europe.

The geographic patterns of transmission opportunities of vector-borne zoonoses are determined by a complex interplay between the migration patterns of the host and the vector. Here we examine the impact of host migration on the spread of a tick-borne zoonotic disease, using Lyme Borreliosis (LB) spirochaetal species in Europe. We demonstrate that the migration of the LB species is dependent on and limited by the migration of their respective hosts. We note that populations of Borrelia spp. associated with birds (Borrelia garinii and B. valaisiana) show limited geographic structuring between countries compared with those associated with small mammals (Borrelia afzelii), and we argue that this can be explained by higher rates of migration in avian hosts. We also show the presence of B. afzelii strains in England and, through the use of the multi-locus sequence analysis scheme, reveal that the strains are highly structured. This pattern in English sites is very different from that observed at the continental sites, and we propose that these may be recent introductions.

Landscape predictors of tick-borne encephalitis in Latvia: land cover, land use, and land ownership.

Although the presence of tick-borne encephalitis (TBE) virus circulating in tick populations depends on large-scale patterns of climate, and the local density of infected ticks depends on the abundance of mammalian hosts, the risk of human infection depends on the access and use by human populations of tick-infested habitats, particularly forests, at the landscape level. We investigated the incidence of reported TBE cases in rural parishes (i.e., municipalities) in Latvia. The following major characteristics of parishes were considered: whether their environment is suitable for tick and tick-host populations (depending on land cover); whether the local human population is likely to enter the forest on a regular base (depending on land use); and whether the spatial distributions of these two aspects are likely to intersect, through access rules (as a function of land ownership). The results indicated that all three aspects are important in explaining and predicting the spatial distribution of TBE cases in the rural areas of Latvia. The concept of landscape is here given new depth by consideration of its physical structure, its use by human populations, and its accessibility as modulated by ownership.

A new Borrelia species defined by multilocus sequence analysis of housekeeping genes.

Analysis of Lyme borreliosis (LB) spirochetes, using a novel multilocus sequence analysis scheme, revealed that OspA serotype 4 strains (a rodent-associated ecotype) of Borrelia garinii were sufficiently genetically distinct from bird-associated B. garinii strains to deserve species status. We suggest that OspA serotype 4 strains be raised to species status and named Borrelia bavariensis sp. nov. The rooted phylogenetic trees provide novel insights into the evolutionary history of LB spirochetes.

Variable spikes in tick-borne encephalitis incidence in 2006 independent of variable tick abundance but related to weather.

BACKGROUND: The incidence of tick-borne encephalitis showed a dramatic spike in several countries in Europe in 2006, a year that was unusually cold in winter but unusually warm and dry in summer and autumn. In this study we examine the possible causes of the sudden increase in disease: more abundant infected ticks and/or increased exposure due to human behaviour, both in response to the weather. METHODS: For eight countries across Europe, field data on tick abundance for 2005-2007, collected monthly from a total of 41 sites, were analysed in relation to total annual and seasonal TBE incidence and temperature and rainfall conditions. RESULTS: The weather in 2006-2007 was exceptional compared with the previous two decades, but neither the very cold start to 2006, nor the very hot period from summer 2006 to late spring 2007 had any consistent impact on tick abundance. Nor was the TBE spike in 2006 related to changes in tick abundance. Countries varied in the degree of TBE spike despite similar weather patterns, and also in the degree to which seasonal variation in TBE incidence matched seasonal tick activity. CONCLUSION: The data suggest that the TBE spike was not due to weather-induced variation in tick population dynamics. An alternative explanation, supported by qualitative reports and some data, involves human behavioural responses to weather favourable for outdoor recreational activities, including wild mushroom and berry harvest, differentially influenced by national cultural practices and economic constraints.

MLST of housekeeping genes captures geographic population structure and suggests a European origin of Borrelia burgdorferi.

Lyme borreliosis, caused by the tick-borne bacterium Borrelia burgdorferi, has become the most common vector-borne disease in North America over the last three decades. To understand the dynamics of the epizootic spread and to predict the evolutionary trajectories of B. burgdorferi, accurate information on the population structure and the evolutionary relationships of the pathogen is crucial. We, therefore, developed a multilocus sequence typing (MLST) scheme for B. burgdorferi based on eight chromosomal housekeeping genes. We validated the MLST scheme on B. burgdorferi specimens from North America and Europe, comprising both cultured isolates and infected ticks. These data were compared with sequences for the commonly used genetic markers rrs-rrlA intergenic spacer (IGS) and the gene encoding the outer surface protein C (ospC). The study demonstrates that the concatenated sequences of the housekeeping genes of B. burgdorferi provide highly resolved phylogenetic signals and that the housekeeping genes evolve differently compared with the IGS locus and ospC. Using sequence data, the study reveals that North American and European populations of B. burgdorferi correspond to genetically distinct populations. Importantly, the MLST data suggest that B. burgdorferi originated in Europe rather than in North America as proposed previously.

Behavioural responses to perceived risk of tick-borne encephalitis: vaccination and avoidance in the Baltics and Slovenia.

Tick-borne encephalitis (TBE) incidence increased markedly in the Baltics and Slovenia in the early 1990s, but then declined again in some places. Our analyses of temporal and spatial data on TBE incidence and vaccination revealed that over 1970-2005 up-take of vaccination varied in both time and space according to incidence, i.e. was apparently responsive to perceived risk. Since 1999, however, decreases in incidence in many counties within each country have far exceeded vaccination rates or immunity through natural exposure, and in Latvia and Lithuania these changes are correlated with previous incidence. Survey data on human activities in Latvia revealed that people in socio-economic groups whose behaviour put them at highest risk of exposure to ticks in forests, including people with lower education and lowest incomes, are least likely to be vaccinated. We conclude that risk avoidance through changing human behaviour has driven incidence-dependent decreases in TBE infection, but targeted vaccination campaigns could provide more secure protection.

Socio-economic factors in the differential upsurge of tick-borne encephalitis in Central and Eastern Europe.

Tick-borne encephalitis (TBE), the most serious widespread vector-borne disease of humans in Europe, increased from 2- to 30-fold in many Central and Eastern European countries from 1992 to 1993, coinciding with independence from Soviet rule. Unemployment and low income have been shown in Latvia to be statistically associated with high-risk behaviour involving harvest of wild foods from tick-infested forests, and also with not being vaccinated against TBE. Archival data for 1970--2005 record major changes in the agricultural and industrial sectors, and consequent changes in the abiotic and biotic environment and socio-economic conditions, which could have increased the abundance of infected ticks and the contact of humans with those ticks. For example, abandoned agricultural fields became suitable for rodent transmission hosts; use of pesticides and emissions of atmospheric industrial pollutants plummeted; wildlife hosts for ticks increased; tick populations appear to have responded; unemployment and inequality increased in all countries. These factors, by acting synergistically but differentially between and within each country, can explain the marked spatio-temporal heterogeneities in TBE epidemiology better than can climate change alone, which is too uniform across wide areas. Different degrees of socio-economic upheaval caused by political transition in Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Slovenia and the Czech Republic can apparently explain the marked variation in TBE upsurge. Causal linkage between national socio-economic conditions and epidemiology is strongly indicated by striking correlations across eight countries between the degree of upsurge of TBE and both poverty and household expenditure on food (R2 = 0.533 and 0.716, respectively).