Childhood growth during recovery from acute illness in Africa and South Asia: a secondary analysis of the childhood acute illness and nutrition (CHAIN) prospective cohort.

Background: Growth faltering is well-recognized during acute childhood illness and growth acceleration during convalescence, with or without nutritional therapy, may occur. However, there are limited recent data on growth after hospitalization in low- and middle-income countries. Methods: We evaluated growth following hospitalization among children aged 2-23 months in sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia. Between November 2016 and January 2019, children were recruited at hospital admission and classified as: not-wasted (NW), moderately-wasted (MW), severely-wasted (SW), or having nutritional oedema (NO). We describe earlier (discharge to 45-days) and later (45- to 180-days) changes in length-for-age [LAZ], weight-for-age [WAZ], mid-upper arm circumference [MUACZ], weight-for-length [WLZ] z-scores, and clinical, nutritional, and socioeconomic correlates. Findings: We included 2472 children who survived to 180-days post-discharge: NW, 960 (39%); MW, 572 (23%); SW, 682 (28%); and NO, 258 (10%). During 180-days, LAZ decreased in NW (-0.27 [-0.36, -0.19]) and MW (-0.23 [-0.34, -0.11]). However, all groups increased WAZ (NW, 0.21 [95% CI: 0.11, 0.32]; MW, 0.57 [0.44, 0.71]; SW, 1.0 [0.88, 1.1] and NO, 1.3 [1.1, 1.5]) with greatest gains in the first 45-days. Of children underweight (<-2 WAZ) at discharge, 66% remained underweight at 180-days. Lower WAZ post-discharge was associated with age-inappropriate nutrition, adverse caregiver characteristics, small size at birth, severe or moderate anaemia, and chronic conditions, while lower LAZ was additionally associated with household-level exposures but not with chronic medical conditions. Interpretation: Underweight and poor linear growth mostly persisted after an acute illness. Beyond short-term nutritional supplementation, improving linear growth post-discharge may require broader individual and family support. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates FoundationOPP1131320; National Institute for Health ResearchNIHR201813.

Trajectories of resting energy expenditure and performance of predictive equations in children hospitalized with an acute illness and malnutrition: a longitudinal study.

There is scarce data on energy expenditure in ill children with different degrees of malnutrition. This study aimed to determine resting energy expenditure (REE) trajectories in hospitalized malnourished children during and after hospitalization. We followed a cohort of children in Bangladesh and Malawi (2-23 months) with: no wasting (NW); moderate wasting (MW), severe wasting (SW), or edematous malnutrition (EM). REE was measured by indirect calorimetry at admission, discharge, 14-and-45-days post-discharge. 125 children (NW, n = 23; MW, n = 29; SW, n = 51; EM, n = 22), median age 9 (IQR 6, 14) months, provided 401 REE measurements. At admission, the REE of children with NW and MW was 67 (95% CI [58, 75]) and 70 (95% CI [63, 76]) kcal/kg/day, respectively, while REE in children with SW was higher, 79 kcal/kg/day (95% CI [74, 84], p = 0.018), than NW. REE in these groups was stable over time. In children with EM, REE increased from admission to discharge (65 kcal/kg/day, 95% CI [56, 73]) to 79 (95% CI [72, 86], p = 0.0014) and was stable hereafter. Predictive equations underestimated REE in 92% of participants at all time points. Recommended feeding targets during the acute phase of illness in severely malnourished children exceeded REE. Acutely ill malnourished children are at risk of being overfed when implementing current international guidelines.

Micronutrient status in children aged 6-59 months with severe wasting and/or nutritional edema: implications for nutritional rehabilitation formulations.

Undernutrition remains a global struggle and is associated with almost 45% of deaths in children younger than 5 years. Despite advances in management of severe wasting (though less so for nutritional edema), full and sustained recovery remains elusive. Children with severe wasting and/or nutritional edema (also commonly referred to as severe acute malnutrition and part of the umbrella term "severe malnutrition") continue to have a high mortality rate. This suggests a likely multifactorial etiology that may include micronutrient deficiency. Micronutrients are currently provided in therapeutic foods at levels based on expert opinion, with few supportive studies of high quality having been conducted. This narrative review looks at the knowledge base on micronutrient deficiencies in children aged 6-59 months who have severe wasting and/or nutritional edema, in addition to highlighting areas where further research is warranted (See "Future Directions" section).

New approaches and technical considerations in detecting outlier measurements and trajectories in longitudinal children growth data.

BACKGROUND: Growth studies rely on longitudinal measurements, typically represented as trajectories. However, anthropometry is prone to errors that can generate outliers. While various methods are available for detecting outlier measurements, a gold standard has yet to be identified, and there is no established method for outlying trajectories. Thus, outlier types and their effects on growth pattern detection still need to be investigated. This work aimed to assess the performance of six methods at detecting different types of outliers, propose two novel methods for outlier trajectory detection and evaluate how outliers affect growth pattern detection. METHODS: We included 393 healthy infants from The Applied Research Group for Kids (TARGet Kids!) cohort and 1651 children with severe malnutrition from the co-trimoxazole prophylaxis clinical trial. We injected outliers of three types and six intensities and applied four outlier detection methods for measurements (model-based and World Health Organization cut-offs-based) and two for trajectories. We also assessed growth pattern detection before and after outlier injection using time series clustering and latent class mixed models. Error type, intensity, and population affected method performance. RESULTS: Model-based outlier detection methods performed best for measurements with precision between 5.72-99.89%, especially for low and moderate error intensities. The clustering-based outlier trajectory method had high precision of 14.93-99.12%. Combining methods improved the detection rate to 21.82% in outlier measurements. Finally, when comparing growth groups with and without outliers, the outliers were shown to alter group membership by 57.9 -79.04%. CONCLUSIONS: World Health Organization cut-off-based techniques were shown to perform well in few very particular cases (extreme errors of high intensity), while model-based techniques performed well, especially for moderate errors of low intensity. Clustering-based outlier trajectory detection performed exceptionally well across all types and intensities of errors, indicating a potential strategic change in how outliers in growth data are viewed. Finally, the importance of detecting outliers was shown, given its impact on children growth studies, as demonstrated by comparing results of growth group detection.

Intestinal disturbances associated with mortality of children with complicated severe malnutrition.

BACKGROUND: Children admitted to hospital with complicated severe malnutrition (CSM) have high mortality despite compliance with standard WHO management guidelines. Limited data suggests a relationship between intestinal dysfunction and poor prognosis in CSM, but this has not been explicitly studied. This study aimed to evaluate the role of intestinal disturbances in CSM mortality. METHODS: A case-control study nested within a randomized control trial was conducted among children hospitalized with CSM in Kenya and Malawi. Children who died (cases, n = 68) were compared with those who were discharged, propensity matched to the cases on age, HIV and nutritional status (controls, n = 68) on fecal metabolomics that targeted about 70 commonly measured metabolites, and enteropathy markers: fecal myeloperoxidase (MPO), fecal calprotectin, and circulating intestinal fatty acid binding protein (I-FABP). RESULTS: The fecal metabolomes of cases show specific reductions in amino acids, monosaccharides, and microbial fermentation products, when compared to controls. SCFA levels did not differ between groups. The overall fecal metabolomics signature moderately differentiates cases from controls (AUC = 0.72). Enteropathy markers do not differ between groups overall, although serum I-FABP is elevated in cases in a sensitivity analysis among non-edematous children. Integrative analysis with systemic data suggests an indirect role of intestinal inflammation in the causal path of mortality. CONCLUSIONS: Intestinal disturbances appear to have an indirect association with acute mortality. Findings of the study improve our understanding of pathophysiological pathways underlying mortality of children with CSM.

Malnourished children are at a high risk of dying when exposed to an acute illness. They often have symptoms like diarrhea that indicate their gut is not working properly. It is unclear whether these gut problems contribute to their deaths. Feces contain numerous small molecules processed by the gut that reflect gut health. We compare these fecal molecules between malnourished children who died during hospitalization to those who survived, and relate them to signs of inflammation in the body. We show that the fecal molecules are different between children who died and those who survived. These differences reveal that poor gut health could increase risk of death, potentially by perturbing the body's defensive response to an acute illness. These findings underscore that treatment for ill severely malnourished children should focus on improving gut health.

Rebalancing of mitochondrial homeostasis through an NAD+-SIRT1 pathway preserves intestinal barrier function in severe malnutrition.

BACKGROUND: The intestine of children with severe malnutrition (SM) shows structural and functional changes that are linked to increased infection and mortality. SM dysregulates the tryptophan-kynurenine pathway, which may impact processes such as SIRT1- and mTORC1-mediated autophagy and mitochondrial homeostasis. Using a mouse and organoid model of SM, we studied the repercussions of these dysregulations on malnutrition enteropathy and the protective capacity of maintaining autophagy activity and mitochondrial health. METHODS: SM was induced through feeding male weanling C57BL/6 mice a low protein diet (LPD) for 14-days. Mice were either treated with the NAD+-precursor, nicotinamide; an mTORC1-inhibitor, rapamycin; a SIRT1-activator, resveratrol; or SIRT1-inhibitor, EX-527. Malnutrition enteropathy was induced in enteric organoids through amino-acid deprivation. Features of and pathways to malnutrition enteropathy were examined, including paracellular permeability, nutrient absorption, and autophagic, mitochondrial, and reactive-oxygen-species (ROS) abnormalities. FINDINGS: LPD-feeding and ensuing low-tryptophan availability led to villus atrophy, nutrient malabsorption, and intestinal barrier dysfunction. In LPD-fed mice, nicotinamide-supplementation was linked to SIRT1-mediated activation of mitophagy, which reduced damaged mitochondria, and improved intestinal barrier function. Inhibition of mTORC1 reduced intestinal barrier dysfunction and nutrient malabsorption. Findings were validated and extended using an organoid model, demonstrating that resolution of mitochondrial ROS resolved barrier dysfunction. INTERPRETATION: Malnutrition enteropathy arises from a dysregulation of the SIRT1 and mTORC1 pathways, leading to disrupted autophagy, mitochondrial homeostasis, and ROS. Whether nicotinamide-supplementation in children with SM could ameliorate malnutrition enteropathy should be explored in clinical trials. FUNDING: This work was supported by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, the Sickkids Research Institute, the Canadian Institutes of Health Research, and the University Medical Center Groningen.

A protocol for a proof-of-concept randomized control trial testing increased protein quantity and quality in ready-to-use therapeutic food in improving linear growth among 6-23-month-old children with severe wasting in Malawi.

INTRODUCTION: Ready-to-use therapeutic foods (RUTFs) have successfully promoted recovery from severe wasting and increased treatment coverage. However, RUTFs do not sufficiently improve linear growth, leaving many survivors of severe wasting at risk of persistent stunting, which is associated with high mortality risk, poor child development and non-communicable diseases in adulthood. High protein quantity and quality can stimulate linear growth. AIM: The trial aims to assess whether higher-protein-RUTF leads to higher concentrations of markers of linear growth compared to standard RUTF among 6-23 months old children with severe wasting. METHODS: We designed a higher protein quantity and quality RUTF for a proof-of-concept (PoC) double-blind randomized controlled trial. OUTCOMES: The primary outcome is a change in insulin-like growth factor-1 (IGF-1), a hormone positively associated with linear growth after four weeks of treatment. Secondary outcomes include changes in ponderal and linear growth and in body composition from baseline to eight weeks later; plasma amino acid profile at four weeks; acceptability and safety. IMPLICATIONS: These findings will help in informing the potential impact of increased protein in RUTF on linear growth when treating severe wasting towards conducting a larger clinical trial. TRIAL REGISTRATION: The trial has been registered on clinicaltrial.gov (NCT05737472).

Accelerated aging in bipolar disorders: An exploratory study of six epigenetic clocks.

Bipolar disorder (BD) is a chronic and severe psychiatric disorder associated with significant medical morbidity and reduced life expectancy. In this study, we assessed accelerated epigenetic aging in individuals with BD using various DNA methylation (DNAm)-based markers. For this purpose, we used five epigenetic clocks (Horvath, Hannum, EN, PhenoAge, and GrimAge) and a DNAm-based telomere length clock (DNAmTL). DNAm profiles were obtained using Infinium MethylationEPIC Arrays from whole-blood samples of 184 individuals with BD. We also estimated blood cell counts based on DNAm levels for adjustment. Significant correlations between chronological age and each epigenetic age estimated using the six different clocks were observed. Following adjustment for blood cell counts, we found that the six epigenetic AgeAccels (age accelerations) were significantly associated with the body mass index. GrimAge AgeAccel was significantly associated with male sex, smoking status and childhood maltreatment. DNAmTL AgeAccel was significantly associated with smoking status. Overall, this study showed that distinct epigenetic clocks are sensitive to different aspects of aging process in BD. Further investigations with comprehensive epigenetic clock analyses and large samples are required to confirm our findings of potential determinants of an accelerated epigenetic aging in BD.

A novel systematic pipeline for increased predictability and explainability of growth patterns in children using trajectory features.

OBJECTIVE: Longitudinal patterns of growth in early childhood are associated with health conditions throughout life. Knowledge of such patterns and the ability to predict them can lead to better prevention and improved health promotion in adulthood. However, growth analyses are characterized by significant variability, and pattern detection is affected by the method applied. Moreover, pattern labelling is typically performed based on ad hoc methods, such as visualizations or clinical experience. Here, we propose a novel pipeline using features extracted from growth trajectories using mathematical, statistical and machine-learning approaches to predict growth patterns and label them in a systematic and unequivocal manner. METHODS: We extracted mathematical and clinical features from 9577 children growth trajectories embedded with machine-learning predictions of the growth patterns. We experimented with two sets of features (CAnonical Time-series Characteristics and trajectory features specific to growth), developmental periods and six machine-learning classifiers. Clinical experts provided labels for the detected patterns and decision rules were created to associate the features with the labelled patterns. The predictive capacity of the extracted features was validated on two heterogenous populations (The Applied Research Group for Kids and the 2004 Pelotas Birth Cohort, based in Canada and Brazil, respectively). RESULTS: Features predictive ability measured by accuracy and F1 score was ≥ 80% and ≥ 0.76 respectively in both cohorts. A small number of features (n = 74) was sufficient to distinguish between growth patterns in both cohorts. Slope, intercept of the trajectory, age at peak value, start value and change of the growth measure were among the top identified features. CONCLUSION: Growth features can be reliably used as predictors of growth patterns and provide an unbiased understanding of growth patterns. They can be used as tool to reduce the effort to repeat analysis and variability concerning anthropometric measures, time points and analytical methods, in the context of the same or similar populations.

A novel shape-based approach to identify gestational age-adjusted growth patterns from birth to 11 years of age.

Child growth patterns assessment is critical to design public health interventions. However, current analytical approaches may overlook population heterogeneity. To overcome this limitation, we developed a growth trajectories clustering pipeline that incorporates a shape-respecting distance, baseline centering (i.e., birth-size normalized trajectories) and Gestational Age (GA)-correction to characterize shape-based child growth patterns. We used data from 3945 children (461 preterm) in the 2004 Pelotas Birth Cohort with at least 3 measurements between birth (included) and 11 years of age. Sex-adjusted weight-, length/height- and body mass index-for-age z-scores were derived at birth, 3 months, and at 1, 2, 4, 6 and 11 years of age (INTERGROWTH-21st and WHO growth standards). Growth trajectories clustering was conducted for each anthropometric index using k-means and a shape-respecting distance, accounting or not for birth size and/or GA-correction. We identified 3 trajectory patterns for each anthropometric index: increasing (High), stable (Middle) and decreasing (Low). Baseline centering resulted in pattern classification that considered early life growth traits. GA-correction increased the intercepts of preterm-born children trajectories, impacting their pattern classification. Incorporating shape-based clustering, baseline centering and GA-correction in growth patterns analysis improves the identification of subgroups meaningful for public health interventions.

A metabolic perspective of the neutrophil life cycle: new avenues in immunometabolism.

Neutrophils are the most abundant innate immune cells. Multiple mechanisms allow them to engage a wide range of metabolic pathways for biosynthesis and bioenergetics for mediating biological processes such as development in the bone marrow and antimicrobial activity such as ROS production and NET formation, inflammation and tissue repair. We first discuss recent work on neutrophil development and functions and the metabolic processes to regulate granulopoiesis, neutrophil migration and trafficking as well as effector functions. We then discuss metabolic syndromes with impaired neutrophil functions that are influenced by genetic and environmental factors of nutrient availability and usage. Here, we particularly focus on the role of specific macronutrients, such as glucose, fatty acids, and protein, as well as micronutrients such as vitamin B3, in regulating neutrophil biology and how this regulation impacts host health. A special section of this review primarily discusses that the ways nutrient deficiencies could impact neutrophil biology and increase infection susceptibility. We emphasize biochemical approaches to explore neutrophil metabolism in relation to development and functions. Lastly, we discuss opportunities and challenges to neutrophil-centered therapeutic approaches in immune-driven diseases and highlight unanswered questions to guide future discoveries.

The role of the tryptophan-NAD + pathway in a mouse model of severe malnutrition induced liver dysfunction.

Mortality in children with severe malnutrition is strongly related to signs of metabolic dysfunction, such as hypoglycemia. Lower circulating tryptophan levels in children with severe malnutrition suggest a possible disturbance in the tryptophan-nicotinamide adenine dinucleotide (TRP-NAD+) pathway and subsequently in NAD+ dependent metabolism regulator sirtuin1 (SIRT1). Here we show that severe malnutrition in weanling mice, induced by 2-weeks of low protein diet feeding from weaning, leads to an impaired TRP-NAD+ pathway with decreased NAD+ levels and affects hepatic mitochondrial turnover and function. We demonstrate that stimulating the TRP-NAD+ pathway with NAD+ precursors improves hepatic mitochondrial and overall metabolic function through SIRT1 modulation. Activating SIRT1 is sufficient to induce improvement in metabolic functions. Our findings indicate that modulating the TRP-NAD+ pathway can improve liver metabolic function in a mouse model of severe malnutrition. These results could lead to the development of new interventions for children with severe malnutrition.

Inhibition of mTOR improves malnutrition induced hepatic metabolic dysfunction.

Severe malnutrition accounts for half-a-million deaths annually in children under the age of five. Despite improved WHO guidelines, inpatient mortality remains high and is associated with metabolic dysfunction. Previous studies suggest a correlation between hepatic metabolic dysfunction and impaired autophagy. We aimed to determine the role of mTORC1 inhibition in a murine model of malnutrition-induced hepatic dysfunction. Wild type weanling C57/B6 mice were fed a 18 or 1% protein diet for two weeks. A third low-protein group received daily rapamycin injections, an mTORC1 inhibitor. Hepatic metabolic function was assessed by histology, immunofluorescence, gene expression, metabolomics and protein levels. Low protein-fed mice manifested characteristics of severe malnutrition, including weight loss, hypoalbuminemia, hypoglycemia, hepatic steatosis and cholestasis. Low protein-fed mice had fewer mitochondria and showed signs of impaired mitochondrial function. Rapamycin prevented hepatic steatosis, restored ATP levels and fasted plasma glucose levels compared to untreated mice. This correlated with increased content of LC3-II, and decreased content mitochondrial damage marker, PINK1. We demonstrate that hepatic steatosis and disturbed mitochondrial function in a murine model of severe malnutrition can be partially prevented through inhibition of mTORC1. These findings suggest that stimulation of autophagy could be a novel approach to improve metabolic function in severely malnourished children.

Neurodevelopment and Recovery From Wasting.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Acute illness with malnutrition is a common indication for hospitalization among children in low- and middle-income countries. We investigated the association between wasting recovery trajectories and neurodevelopmental outcomes in young children 6 months after hospitalization for an acute illness. METHODS: Children aged 2 to 23 months were enrolled in a prospective observational cohort of the Childhood Acute Illness & Nutrition Network, in Uganda, Malawi, and Pakistan between January 2017 and January 2019. We grouped children on the basis of their wasting recovery trajectories using change in mid-upper arm circumference for age z-score. Neurodevelopment was assessed with the Malawi Developmental Assessment Tool (MDAT development-for-age z-score [DAZ]) at hospital discharge and after 6 months. RESULTS: We included 645 children at hospital discharge (mean age 12.3 months ± 5.5; 55% male); 262 (41%) with severe wasting, 134 (21%) with moderate wasting, and 249 (39%) without wasting. Four recovery trajectories were identified: high-stable, n = 112; wasted-improved, n = 404; severely wasted-greatly improved, n = 48; and severely wasted-not improved, n = 28. The children in the severely wasted-greatly improved group demonstrated a steep positive MDAT-DAZ recovery slope. This effect was most evident in children with both wasting and stunting (interaction wasted-improved × time × stunting: P < .001). After 6 months, the MDAT DAZ in children with wasting recovery did not differ from community children. In children who never recovered from wasting, there remained a significant delay in MDAT DAZ scores. CONCLUSIONS: Neurodevelopment recovery occurred in parallel with wasting recovery in children convalescing from acute illness and was influenced by stunting.

Systemic inflammation and metabolic disturbances underlie inpatient mortality among ill children with severe malnutrition.

Children admitted to hospital with an acute illness and concurrent severe malnutrition [complicated severe malnutrition (CSM)] have a high risk of dying. The biological processes underlying their mortality are poorly understood. In this case-control study nested within a multicenter randomized controlled trial among children with CSM in Kenya and Malawi, we found that blood metabolomic and proteomic profiles robustly differentiated children who died (n = 92) from those who survived (n = 92). Fatalities were characterized by increased energetic substrates (tricarboxylic acid cycle metabolites), microbial metabolites (e.g., propionate and isobutyrate), acute phase proteins (e.g., calprotectin and C-reactive protein), and inflammatory markers (e.g., interleukin-8 and tumor necrosis factor-α). These perturbations indicated disruptions in mitochondria-related bioenergetic pathways and sepsis-like responses. This study identified specific biomolecular disturbances associated with CSM mortality, revealing that systemic inflammation and bioenergetic deficits are targetable pathophysiological processes for improving survival of this vulnerable population.

Micronutrient supplements can promote disruptive protozoan and fungal communities in the developing infant gut.

Supplementation with micronutrients, including vitamins, iron and zinc, is a key strategy to alleviate child malnutrition. However, association of gastrointestinal disorders with iron has led to ongoing debate over their administration. To better understand their impact on gut microbiota, we analyse the bacterial, protozoal, fungal and helminth communities of stool samples collected from a subset of 80 children at 12 and 24 months of age, previously enrolled into a large cluster randomized controlled trial of micronutrient supplementation in Pakistan (ClinicalTrials.gov identifier NCT00705445). We show that while bacterial diversity is reduced in supplemented children, vitamins and iron (as well as residence in a rural setting) may promote colonization with distinct protozoa and mucormycetes, whereas the addition of zinc appears to ameliorate this effect. We suggest that the risks and benefits of micronutrient interventions may depend on eukaryotic communities, potentially exacerbated by exposure to a rural setting. Larger studies are needed to evaluate the clinical significance of these findings and their impact on health outcomes.

In silico identification of variations in microRNAs with a potential impact on dairy traits using whole ruminant genome SNP datasets.

MicroRNAs are small noncoding RNAs that have important roles in the lactation process and milk biosynthesis. Some polymorphisms have been studied in various livestock species from the perspective of pathology or production traits. To target variants that could be the causal variants of dairy traits, genetic variants of microRNAs expressed in the mammary gland or present in milk and localized in dairy quantitative trait loci (QTLs) were investigated in bovine, caprine, and ovine species. In this study, a total of 59,124 (out of 28 millions), 13,427 (out of 87 millions), and 4761 (out of 38 millions) genetic variants in microRNAs expressed in the mammary gland or present in milk were identified in bovine, caprine, and ovine species, respectively. A total of 4679 of these detected bovine genetic variants are located in dairy QTLs. In caprine species, 127 genetic variants are localized in dairy QTLs. In ovine species, no genetic variant was identified in dairy QTLs. This study leads to the detection of microRNA genetic variants of interest in the context of dairy production, taking advantage of whole genome data to identify microRNA genetic variants expressed in the mammary gland and localized in dairy QTLs.

Predicting the risk of mortality during hospitalization in sick severely malnourished children using daily evaluation of key clinical warning signs.

BACKGROUND: Despite adherence to WHO guidelines, inpatient mortality among sick children admitted to hospital with complicated severe acute malnutrition (SAM) remains unacceptably high. Several studies have examined risk factors present at admission for mortality. However, risks may evolve during admission with medical and nutritional treatment or deterioration. Currently, no specific guidance exists for assessing daily treatment response. This study aimed to determine the prognostic value of monitoring clinical signs on a daily basis for assessing mortality risk during hospitalization in children with SAM. METHODS: This is a secondary analysis of data from a randomized trial (NCT02246296) among 843 hospitalized children with SAM. Daily clinical signs were prospectively collected during ward rounds. Multivariable extended Cox regression using backward feature selection was performed to identify daily clinical warning signs (CWS) associated with time to death within the first 21 days of hospitalization. Predictive models were subsequently developed, and their prognostic performance evaluated using Harrell's concordance index (C-index) and time-dependent area under the curve (tAUC). RESULTS: Inpatient case fatality ratio was 16.3% (n=127). The presence of the following CWS during daily assessment were found to be independent predictors of inpatient mortality: symptomatic hypoglycemia, reduced consciousness, chest indrawing, not able to complete feeds, nutritional edema, diarrhea, and fever. Daily risk scores computed using these 7 CWS together with MUAC<10.5cm at admission as additional CWS predict survival outcome of children with SAM with a C-index of 0.81 (95% CI 0.77-0.86). Moreover, counting signs among the top 5 CWS (reduced consciousness, symptomatic hypoglycemia, chest indrawing, not able to complete foods, and MUAC<10.5cm) provided a simpler tool with similar prognostic performance (C-index of 0.79; 95% CI 0.74-0.84). Having 1 or 2 of these CWS on any day during hospitalization was associated with a 3 or 11-fold increased mortality risk compared with no signs, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: This study provides evidence for structured monitoring of daily CWS as recommended clinical practice as it improves prediction of inpatient mortality among sick children with complicated SAM. We propose a simple counting-tool to guide healthcare workers to assess treatment response for these children. TRIAL REGISTRATION: NCT02246296.