What is the impact of nature on human health? A scoping review of the literature.

Background: The burden of non-communicable diseases (including poor mental health) is increasing, and some practitioners are turning to nature to provide the solution. Nature-based interventions (NBIs) could offer cost-effective solutions by reconnecting individuals with nature, but the success of these interventions depends partially on the way in which people engage with blue and green spaces. Methods: We conducted a scoping review in accordance with the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses extension for Scoping Reviews (PRISMA-ScR) and Cochrane guidelines to establish the evidence base for treating poor mental and physical health with NBIs. We searched five databases and the grey literature. Exposure was the active engagement with natural environments. The primary outcome was mental health and the secondary outcome was physical health defined using established metrics. All data were extracted to a charting table and reported as a narrative synthesis. Results: 952 studies were identified, of which 39 met the inclusion criteria. 92% demonstrated consistent improvements across any health outcome where individuals engaged with natural outdoor environments. Mental health outcomes improved across 98% of studies while physical and cognitive health outcomes showed improvement across 83% and 75% of studies respectively. Additionally, we identified 153 factors affecting engagement with nature, 78% of which facilitated engagement compared with 22% that reduced engagement. Aspects such as the sense of wilderness, accessibility, opportunities for physical activity and the absence of noise/ air pollution all increased engagement. Conclusions: Further research (accompanied by a global improvement in study design) is needed to establish the magnitude and relative effect of nature-based interventions, and to quantify the compounding effect of factors that improve engagement with green and blue spaces. Nevertheless, this review has documented the increasing body of evidence in support of NBIs as effective tools to improve mental, physical, and cognitive health outcomes, and highlighted key factors that improve engagement with the natural world. Registration: Open Science Framework: https://doi.org/10.17605/OSF.IO/8J5Q3.

Novel Epidemic Metrics to Communicate Outbreak Risk at the Municipality Level: Dengue and Zika in the Dominican Republic.

Arboviruses remain a significant cause of morbidity, mortality and economic cost across the global human population. Epidemics of arboviral disease, such as Zika and dengue, also cause significant disruption to health services at local and national levels. This study examined 2014-2016 Zika and dengue epidemic data at the sub-national level to characterise transmission across the Dominican Republic. For each municipality, spatio-temporal mapping was used to characterise disease burden, while data were age and sex standardised to quantify burden distributions among the population. In separate analyses, time-ordered data were combined with the underlying disease migration interval distribution to produce a network of likely transmission chain events, displayed using transmission chain likelihood matrices. Finally, municipal-specific reproduction numbers (Rm) were established using a Wallinga-Teunis matrix. Dengue and Zika epidemics peaked during weeks 39-52 of 2015 and weeks 14-27 of 2016, respectively. At the provincial level, dengue attack rates were high in Hermanas Mirabal and San José de Ocoa (58.1 and 49.2 cases per 10,000 population, respectively), compared with the Zika burden, which was highest in Independencia and San José de Ocoa (21.2 and 13.4 cases per 10,000 population, respectively). Across municipalities, high disease burden was observed in Cotuí (622 dengue cases per 10,000 population) and Jimani (32 Zika cases per 10,000 population). Municipal infector-infectee transmission likelihood matrices identified seven 0% likelihood transmission events throughout the dengue epidemic and two 0% likelihood transmission events during the Zika epidemic. Municipality reproduction numbers (Rm) were consistently higher, and persisted for a greater duration, during the Zika epidemic (Rm = 1.0) than during the dengue epidemic (Rm < 1.0). This research highlights the importance of disease surveillance in land border municipalities as an early warning for infectious disease transmission. It also demonstrates that a high number of importation events are required to sustain transmission in endemic settings, and vice versa for newly emerged diseases. The inception of a novel epidemiological metric, Rm, reports transmission risk using standardised spatial units, and can be used to identify high transmission risk municipalities to better focus public health interventions for dengue, Zika and other infectious diseases.

Comparing Public Perceptions and Preventive Behaviors During the Early Phase of the COVID-19 Pandemic in Hong Kong and the United Kingdom: Cross-sectional Survey Study.

BACKGROUND: Given the public health responses to previous respiratory disease pandemics, and in the absence of treatments and vaccines, the mitigation of the COVID-19 pandemic relies on population engagement in nonpharmaceutical interventions. This engagement is largely driven by risk perception, anxiety levels, and knowledge, as well as by historical exposure to disease outbreaks, government responses, and cultural factors. OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study is to compare psychobehavioral responses in Hong Kong and the United Kingdom during the early phase of the COVID-19 pandemic. METHODS: Comparable cross-sectional surveys were administered to adults in Hong Kong and the United Kingdom during the early phase of the epidemic in each setting. Explanatory variables included demographics, risk perception, knowledge of COVID-19, anxiety level, and preventive behaviors. Responses were weighted according to census data. Logistic regression models, including effect modification to quantify setting differences, were used to assess the association between the explanatory variables and the adoption of social distancing measures. RESULTS: Data from 3431 complete responses (Hong Kong, 1663; United Kingdom, 1768) were analyzed. Perceived severity of symptoms differed by setting, with weighted percentages of 96.8% for Hong Kong (1621/1663) and 19.9% for the United Kingdom (366/1768). A large proportion of respondents were abnormally or borderline anxious (Hong Kong: 1077/1603, 60.0%; United Kingdom: 812/1768, 46.5%) and regarded direct contact with infected individuals as the transmission route of COVID-19 (Hong Kong: 94.0%-98.5%; United Kingdom: 69.2%-93.5%; all percentages weighted), with Hong Kong identifying additional routes. Hong Kong reported high levels of adoption of various social distancing measures (Hong Kong: 32.6%-93.7%; United Kingdom: 17.6%-59.0%) and mask-wearing (Hong Kong: 98.8% (1647/1663); United Kingdom: 3.1% (53/1768)). The impact of perceived severity of symptoms and perceived ease of transmission of COVID-19 on the adoption of social distancing measures varied by setting. In Hong Kong, these factors had no impact, whereas in the United Kingdom, those who perceived their symptom severity as "high" were more likely to adopt social distancing (adjusted odds ratios [aORs] 1.58-3.01), and those who perceived transmission as "easy" were prone to adopt both general social distancing (aOR 2.00, 95% CI 1.57-2.55) and contact avoidance (aOR 1.80, 95% CI 1.41-2.30). The impact of anxiety on adopting social distancing did not vary by setting. CONCLUSIONS: Our results suggest that health officials should ascertain baseline levels of risk perception and knowledge in populations, as well as prior sensitization to infectious disease outbreaks, during the development of mitigation strategies. Risk should be communicated through suitable media channels-and trust should be maintained-while early intervention remains the cornerstone of effective outbreak response.

Early perceptions and behavioural responses during the COVID-19 pandemic: a cross-sectional survey of UK adults.

OBJECTIVE: To examine risk perceptions and behavioural responses of the UK adult population during the early phase of the COVID-19 epidemic in the UK. DESIGN: A cross-sectional survey. SETTING: Conducted with a nationally representative sample of UK adults within 48 hours of the UK Government advising the public to stop non-essential contact with others and all unnecessary travel. PARTICIPANTS: 2108 adults living in the UK aged 18 years and over. Response rate was 84.3% (2108/2500). Data collected between 17 March and 18 March 2020. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Descriptive statistics for all survey questions, including number of respondents and weighted percentages. Robust Poisson regression used to identify sociodemographic variation in: (1) adoption of social distancing measures, (2) ability to work from home, and (3) ability and (4) willingness to self-isolate. RESULTS: Overall, 1992 (94.2%) respondents reported at least one preventive measure: 85.8% washed their hands with soap more frequently; 56.5% avoided crowded areas and 54.5% avoided social events. Adoption of social distancing measures was higher in those aged over 70 years compared with younger adults aged 18-34 years (adjusted relative risk/aRR: 1.2; 95% CI: 1.1 to 1.5). Those with lowest household income were three times less likely to be able to work from home (aRR: 0.33; 95% CI: 0.24 to 0.45) and less likely to be able to self-isolate (aRR: 0.92; 95% CI: 0.88 to 0.96). Ability to self-isolate was also lower in black and minority ethnic groups (aRR: 0.89; 95% CI: 0.79 to 1.0). Willingness to self-isolate was high across all respondents. CONCLUSIONS: Ability to adopt and comply with certain non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) is lower in the most economically disadvantaged in society. Governments must implement appropriate social and economic policies to mitigate this. By incorporating these differences in NPIs among socioeconomic subpopulations into mathematical models of COVID-19 transmission dynamics, our modelling of epidemic outcomes and response to COVID-19 can be improved.

A comparison of Zika and dengue outbreaks using national surveillance data in the Dominican Republic.

BACKGROUND: Aedes-borne arboviruses continue to precipitate epidemics worldwide. In Dominican Republic, the appearance of Zika virus cases that closely followed a large dengue epidemic provided an opportunity to study the different transmission drivers behind these two flaviviruses. Retrospective datasets were used to collect information on the populations at risk and descriptive statistics were used to describe the outbreaks on a national scale. METHODOLOGY/ PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Expectedly, box plots showed that 75% of dengue was reported in those aged <20 years while Zika infections were more widely dispersed among the population. Dengue attack rates were marginally higher among males at 25.9 per 10,000 population vs. 21.5 per 10,000 population for females. Zika infections appeared to be highly clustered among females (73.8% (95% CI 72.6%, 75.0%; p<0.05)); age-adjusted Zika attack rates among females were 7.64 per 10,000 population compared with 2.72 per 10,000 population among males. R0 calculations stratified by sex also showed a significantly higher metric among females: 1.84 (1.82, 1.87; p<0.05) when compared to males at 1.72 (1.69, 1.75; p<0.05). However, GBS attack rates stratified by sex revealed slightly higher risk in males vs. females, at 0.62 and 0.57 per 10,000 population respectively. CONCLUSIONS/ SIGNIFICANCE: Evidence suggests little impact of existing dengue immunity on reported attack rates of Zika at the population level. Confounding of R0 and incident risk calculations by sex-specific over-reporting can alter the reliability of epidemiological metrics, which could be addressed using associated proxy syndromes or conditions to explore seemingly sex-skewed incidence. The findings indicate that community awareness campaigns, through influencing short-term health seeking behaviour, remain the most plausible mechanism behind increased reporting among women of reproductive age, although biological susceptibility cannot yet be ruled out. Media campaigns and screening are therefore recommended for women of reproductive age during Zika outbreaks. Future research should focus on clinical Zika outcomes among dengue seropositive individuals.

Early warning and response system (EWARS) for dengue outbreaks: Recent advancements towards widespread applications in critical settings.

BACKGROUND: Dengue outbreaks are increasing in frequency over space and time, affecting people's health and burdening resource-constrained health systems. The ability to detect early emerging outbreaks is key to mounting an effective response. The early warning and response system (EWARS) is a toolkit that provides countries with early-warning systems for efficient and cost-effective local responses. EWARS uses outbreak and alarm indicators to derive prediction models that can be used prospectively to predict a forthcoming dengue outbreak at district level. METHODS: We report on the development of the EWARS tool, based on users' recommendations into a convenient, user-friendly and reliable software aided by a user's workbook and its field testing in 30 health districts in Brazil, Malaysia and Mexico. FINDINGS: 34 Health officers from the 30 study districts who had used the original EWARS for 7 to 10 months responded to a questionnaire with mainly open-ended questions. Qualitative content analysis showed that participants were generally satisfied with the tool but preferred open-access vs. commercial software. EWARS users also stated that the geographical unit should be the district, while access to meteorological information should be improved. These recommendations were incorporated into the second-generation EWARS-R, using the free R software, combined with recent surveillance data and resulted in higher sensitivities and positive predictive values of alarm signals compared to the first-generation EWARS. Currently the use of satellite data for meteorological information is being tested and a dashboard is being developed to increase user-friendliness of the tool. The inclusion of other Aedes borne viral diseases is under discussion. CONCLUSION: EWARS is a pragmatic and useful tool for detecting imminent dengue outbreaks to trigger early response activities.

Improved tools and strategies for the prevention and control of arboviral diseases: A research-to-policy forum.

BACKGROUND: Research has been conducted on interventions to control dengue transmission and respond to outbreaks. A summary of the available evidence will help inform disease control policy decisions and research directions, both for dengue and, more broadly, for all Aedes-borne arboviral diseases. METHOD: A research-to-policy forum was convened by TDR, the Special Programme for Research and Training in Tropical Diseases, with researchers and representatives from ministries of health, in order to review research findings and discuss their implications for policy and research. RESULTS: The participants reviewed findings of research supported by TDR and others. Surveillance and early outbreak warning. Systematic reviews and country studies identify the critical characteristics that an alert system should have to document trends reliably and trigger timely responses (i.e., early enough to prevent the epidemic spread of the virus) to dengue outbreaks. A range of variables that, according to the literature, either indicate risk of forthcoming dengue transmission or predict dengue outbreaks were tested and some of them could be successfully applied in an Early Warning and Response System (EWARS). Entomological surveillance and vector management. A summary of the published literature shows that controlling Aedes vectors requires complex interventions and points to the need for more rigorous, standardised study designs, with disease reduction as the primary outcome to be measured. House screening and targeted vector interventions are promising vector management approaches. Sampling vector populations, both for surveillance purposes and evaluation of control activities, is usually conducted in an unsystematic way, limiting the potentials of entomological surveillance for outbreak prediction. Combining outbreak alert and improved approaches of vector management will help to overcome the present uncertainties about major risk groups or areas where outbreak response should be initiated and where resources for vector management should be allocated during the interepidemic period. CONCLUSIONS: The Forum concluded that the evidence collected can inform policy decisions, but also that important research gaps have yet to be filled.

Dengue Contingency Planning: From Research to Policy and Practice.

BACKGROUND: Dengue is an increasingly incident disease across many parts of the world. In response, an evidence-based handbook to translate research into policy and practice was developed. This handbook facilitates contingency planning as well as the development and use of early warning and response systems for dengue fever epidemics, by identifying decision-making processes that contribute to the success or failure of dengue surveillance, as well as triggers that initiate effective responses to incipient outbreaks. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Available evidence was evaluated using a step-wise process that included systematic literature reviews, policymaker and stakeholder interviews, a study to assess dengue contingency planning and outbreak management in 10 countries, and a retrospective logistic regression analysis to identify alarm signals for an outbreak warning system using datasets from five dengue endemic countries. Best practices for managing a dengue outbreak are provided for key elements of a dengue contingency plan including timely contingency planning, the importance of a detailed, context-specific dengue contingency plan that clearly distinguishes between routine and outbreak interventions, surveillance systems for outbreak preparedness, outbreak definitions, alert algorithms, managerial capacity, vector control capacity, and clinical management of large caseloads. Additionally, a computer-assisted early warning system, which enables countries to identify and respond to context-specific variables that predict forthcoming dengue outbreaks, has been developed. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Most countries do not have comprehensive, detailed contingency plans for dengue outbreaks. Countries tend to rely on intensified vector control as their outbreak response, with minimal focus on integrated management of clinical care, epidemiological, laboratory and vector surveillance, and risk communication. The Technical Handbook for Surveillance, Dengue Outbreak Prediction/ Detection and Outbreak Response seeks to provide countries with evidence-based best practices to justify the declaration of an outbreak and the mobilization of the resources required to implement an effective dengue contingency plan.

Alarm Variables for Dengue Outbreaks: A Multi-Centre Study in Asia and Latin America.

BACKGROUND: Worldwide, dengue is an unrelenting economic and health burden. Dengue outbreaks have become increasingly common, which place great strain on health infrastructure and services. Early warning models could allow health systems and vector control programmes to respond more cost-effectively and efficiently. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: The Shewhart method and Endemic Channel were used to identify alarm variables that may predict dengue outbreaks. Five country datasets were compiled by epidemiological week over the years 2007-2013. These data were split between the years 2007-2011 (historic period) and 2012-2013 (evaluation period). Associations between alarm/ outbreak variables were analysed using logistic regression during the historic period while alarm and outbreak signals were captured during the evaluation period. These signals were combined to form alarm/ outbreak periods, where 2 signals were equal to 1 period. Alarm periods were quantified and used to predict subsequent outbreak periods. Across Mexico and Dominican Republic, an increase in probable cases predicted outbreaks of hospitalised cases with sensitivities and positive predictive values (PPV) of 93%/ 83% and 97%/ 86% respectively, at a lag of 1-12 weeks. An increase in mean temperature ably predicted outbreaks of hospitalised cases in Mexico and Brazil, with sensitivities and PPVs of 79%/ 73% and 81%/ 46% respectively, also at a lag of 1-12 weeks. Mean age was predictive of hospitalised cases at sensitivities and PPVs of 72%/ 74% and 96%/ 45% in Mexico and Malaysia respectively, at a lag of 4-16 weeks. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: An increase in probable cases was predictive of outbreaks, while meteorological variables, particularly mean temperature, demonstrated predictive potential in some countries, but not all. While it is difficult to define uniform variables applicable in every country context, the use of probable cases and meteorological variables in tailored early warning systems could be used to highlight the occurrence of dengue outbreaks or indicate increased risk of dengue transmission.

Is Dengue Vector Control Deficient in Effectiveness or Evidence?: Systematic Review and Meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Although a vaccine could be available as early as 2016, vector control remains the primary approach used to prevent dengue, the most common and widespread arbovirus of humans worldwide. We reviewed the evidence for effectiveness of vector control methods in reducing its transmission. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Studies of any design published since 1980 were included if they evaluated method(s) targeting Aedes aegypti or Ae. albopictus for at least 3 months. Primary outcome was dengue incidence. Following Cochrane and PRISMA Group guidelines, database searches yielded 960 reports, and 41 were eligible for inclusion, with 19 providing data for meta-analysis. Study duration ranged from 5 months to 10 years. Studies evaluating multiple tools/approaches (23 records) were more common than single methods, while environmental management was the most common method (19 studies). Only 9/41 reports were randomized controlled trials (RCTs). Two out of 19 studies evaluating dengue incidence were RCTs, and neither reported any statistically significant impact. No RCTs evaluated effectiveness of insecticide space-spraying (fogging) against dengue. Based on meta-analyses, house screening significantly reduced dengue risk, OR 0.22 (95% CI 0.05-0.93, p = 0.04), as did combining community-based environmental management and water container covers, OR 0.22 (95% CI 0.15-0.32, p<0.0001). Indoor residual spraying (IRS) did not impact significantly on infection risk (OR 0.67; 95% CI 0.22-2.11; p = 0.50). Skin repellents, insecticide-treated bed nets or traps had no effect (p>0.5), but insecticide aerosols (OR 2.03; 95% CI 1.44-2.86) and mosquito coils (OR 1.44; 95% CI 1.09-1.91) were associated with higher dengue risk (p = 0.01). Although 23/41 studies examined the impact of insecticide-based tools, only 9 evaluated the insecticide susceptibility status of the target vector population during the study. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: This review and meta-analysis demonstrate the remarkable paucity of reliable evidence for the effectiveness of any dengue vector control method. Standardised studies of higher quality to evaluate and compare methods must be prioritised to optimise cost-effective dengue prevention.

Assessing the relationship between vector indices and dengue transmission: a systematic review of the evidence.

BACKGROUND: Despite doubts about methods used and the association between vector density and dengue transmission, routine sampling of mosquito vector populations is common in dengue-endemic countries worldwide. This study examined the evidence from published studies for the existence of any quantitative relationship between vector indices and dengue cases. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: From a total of 1205 papers identified in database searches following Cochrane and PRISMA Group guidelines, 18 were included for review. Eligibility criteria included 3-month study duration and dengue case confirmation by WHO case definition and/or serology. A range of designs were seen, particularly in spatial sampling and analyses, and all but 3 were classed as weak study designs. Eleven of eighteen studies generated Stegomyia indices from combined larval and pupal data. Adult vector data were reported in only three studies. Of thirteen studies that investigated associations between vector indices and dengue cases, 4 reported positive correlations, 4 found no correlation and 5 reported ambiguous or inconclusive associations. Six out of 7 studies that measured Breteau Indices reported dengue transmission at levels below the currently accepted threshold of 5. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: There was little evidence of quantifiable associations between vector indices and dengue transmission that could reliably be used for outbreak prediction. This review highlighted the need for standardized sampling protocols that adequately consider dengue spatial heterogeneity. Recommendations for more appropriately designed studies include: standardized study design to elucidate the relationship between vector abundance and dengue transmission; adult mosquito sampling should be routine; single values of Breteau or other indices are not reliable universal dengue transmission thresholds; better knowledge of vector ecology is required.

Right arm ischemia following intentional stent-graft coverage of an anomalous right subclavian artery.

PURPOSE: To report thoracic aortic stent-graft repair in a patient with abnormal aortic arch anatomy. CASE REPORT: An anomalous right subclavian artery was covered with a stent-graft in a 38-year-old woman being treated for a false aneurysm after coarctation repair. The right arm became relatively ischemic, but was viable and managed conservatively. CONCLUSIONS: Aneurysms close to left or aberrant right subclavian arteries can be safely and effectively treated by endoluminal repair without the need for revascularization procedures; ischemic symptoms that develop are often mild and transient.