ABSTRACT
Brazil is a large developing country that requires attention to regionalized behaviors regarding the dissemination of COVID-19. To deal with this complexity, the COVID-19 Brazil observatory was developed. The Portal aims to monitor and analyze data from different sources. Therefore, with a detailed audit, we centralized this information on the evolution of the disease, allowing for territorial and temporal monitoring. The daily publication of numbers about COVID-19 allowed anyone to follow the current scenario in several Brazilian cities. With about 1,7 million accesses, the Portal offers clarity and an easy understanding of the pandemic data in the country.
ABSTRACT
Extracting information and discovering patterns from a massive dataset is a hard task. In an epidemic scenario, this data has to be integrated providing organization, agility, transparency and, above all, it has to be free of any type of censorship or bias. The aim of this paper is to analyze how coronavirus contamination has evolved in Brazil applying unsupervised analysis algorithms to extract information and find characteristics between them. To achieve this goal we describe an implementation that uses data about Covid-19 spread in Brazilian states (26 states and the federal district), applying a Time Series Clustering technique based on a K-Means variation, using Dynamic Time Warping as a similarity metric. We used data reported by the Ministry of Health in Brazil, referring to deaths per 100k inhabitants, during 452 days from the first reported death in each state. Two analyzes were performed, one considering 3 clusters and the other with 6 clusters. Through these analysis, 3 patterns of responses to the pandemic can be observed, ranging from one of greater to lesser control of the pandemic, although in recent months all clusters showed a highly increase in the number of deaths. The identification of these patterns is important to highlight possible actions and events, as well as other characteristics that determine the correct or incorrect public decision-making in combating the Covid-19 pandemic.
ABSTRACT
BACKGROUND: Tuberculosis is the leading cause of infectious disease-related death, surpassing even the immunodeficiency virus. Treatment loss to follow up and irregular medication use contribute to persistent morbidity and mortality. This increases bacillus drug resistance and has a negative impact on disease control. OBJECTIVE: This study aims to develop a computational model that predicts the loss to follow up treatment in tuberculosis patients, thereby increasing treatment adherence and cure, reducing efforts regarding treatment relapses and decreasing disease spread. METHODS: This is a case-controlled study. Included in the data set were 103,846 tuberculosis cases from the state of São Paulo. They were collected using the TBWEB, an information system used as a tuberculosis treatment monitor, containing samples from 2006 to 2016. This set was later resampled into 6 segments with a 1-1 ratio. This ratio was used to avoid any bias during the model construction. RESULTS: The Classification and Regression Trees were used as the prediction model. Training and test sets accounted for 70% in the former and 30% in the latter of the tuberculosis cases. The model displayed an accuracy of 0.76, F-measure of 0.77, sensitivity of 0.80 and specificity of 0.71. The model emphasizes the relationship between several variables that had been identified in previous studies as related to patient cure or loss to follow up treatment in tuberculosis patients. CONCLUSION: It was possible to construct a predictive model for loss to follow up treatment in tuberculosis patients using Classification and Regression Trees. Although the fact that the ideal predictive ability was not achieved, it seems reasonable to propose the use of Classification and Regression Trees models to predict likelihood of treatment follow up to support healthcare professionals in minimising the loss to follow up.
