Derivation and Internal Validation of a Novel Risk Assessment Tool to Identify Infants and Young Children at Risk for Post-Discharge Mortality in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania and Monrovia, Liberia.

OBJECTIVE: To derive and validate internally a novel risk assessment tool to identify young children at risk for all-cause mortality ≤60 days of discharge from hospitals in sub-Saharan Africa. STUDY DESIGN: We performed a prospective observational cohort study of children aged 1-59 months discharged from Muhimbili National Hospital in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania and John F. Kennedy Medical Center in Monrovia, Liberia (2019-2022). Caregivers received telephone calls up to 60 days after discharge to ascertain participant vital status. We collected socioeconomic, demographic, clinical, and anthropometric data during hospitalization. Candidate variables with P < .20 in bivariate analyses were included in a multivariable logistic regression model with best subset selection to identify risk factors for the outcome. We internally validated our tool using bootstrapping with 500 repetitions. RESULTS: There were 1933 young children enrolled in the study. The median (IQR) age was 11 (4, 23) months and 58.7% were males. In total, 67 (3.5%) died during follow-up. Ten variables contributed to our tool (total possible score 82). Cancer (aOR 10.6, 95% CI 2.58, 34.6), pedal edema (aOR 6.94, 95% CI 1.69, 22.6), and leaving against medical advice (aOR 6.46, 95% CI 2.46, 15.3) were most predictive of post-discharge mortality. Our risk assessment tool demonstrated good discriminatory value (optimism corrected area under the receiver operating characteristic curve 0.77), high precision, and sufficient calibration. CONCLUSIONS: After validation, this tool may be used to identify young children at risk for post-discharge mortality to direct resources for follow-up of high-risk children.

Genomic surveillance of invasive Streptococcus pneumoniae isolates in the period pre-PCV10 and post-PCV10 introduction in Brazil.

In 2010, Brazil introduced the 10-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV10) into the national children's immunization programme. This study describes the genetic characteristics of invasive Streptococcus pneumoniae isolates before and after PCV10 introduction. A subset of 466 [pre-PCV10 (2008-2009): n=232, post-PCV10 (2012-2013): n=234;<5 years old: n=310, ≥5 years old: n=156] pneumococcal isolates, collected through national laboratory surveillance, were whole-genome sequenced (WGS) to determine serotype, pilus locus, antimicrobial resistance and genetic lineages. Following PCV10 introduction, in the <5 years age group, non-vaccine serotypes (NVT) serotype 3 and serotype 19A were the most frequent, and serotypes 12F, 8 and 9 N in the ≥5 years old group. The study identified 65 Global Pneumococcal Sequence Clusters (GPSCs): 49 (88 %) were GPSCs previously described and 16 (12 %) were Brazilian clusters. In total, 36 GPSCs (55 %) were NVT lineages, 18 (28 %) vaccine serotypes (VT) and 11 (17 %) were both VT and NVT lineages. In both sampling periods, the most frequent lineage was GPSC6 (CC156, serotypes 14/9V). In the <5 years old group, a decrease in penicillin (P=0.0123) and cotrimoxazole (P<0.0001) resistance and an increase in tetracycline (P=0.019) were observed. Penicillin nonsusceptibility was predicted in 40 % of the isolates; 127 PBP combinations were identified (51 predicted MIC≥0.125 mg l-1); cotrimoxazole (folA and/or folP alterations), macrolide (mef and/or ermB) and tetracycline (tetM, tetO or tetS/M) resistance were predicted in 63, 13 and 21.6 % of pneumococci studied, respectively. The main lineages associated with multidrug resistance in the post-PCV10 period were composed of NVT, GPSC1 (CC320, serotype 19A), and GPSC47 (ST386, serotype 6C). The study provides a baseline for future comparisons and identified important NVT lineages in the post-PCV10 period in Brazil.

Population genetic structure, serotype distribution and antibiotic resistance of Streptococcus pneumoniae causing invasive disease in children in Argentina.

Invasive disease caused by Streptococcus pneumoniae (IPD) is one of the leading causes of morbidity and mortality in young children worldwide. In Argentina, PCV13 was introduced into the childhood immunization programme nationwide in 2012 and PCV7 was available from 2000, but only in the private market. Since 1993 the National IPD Surveillance Programme, consisting of 150 hospitals, has conducted nationwide pneumococcal surveillance in Argentina in children under 6 years of age, as part of the SIREVA II-OPS network. A total of 1713 pneumococcal isolates characterized by serotype (Quellung) and antimicrobial resistance (agar dilution) to ten antibiotics, belonging to three study periods: pre-PCV7 era 1998-1999 (pre-PCV), before the introduction of PCV13 2010-2011 (PCV7) and after the introduction of PCV13 2012-2013 (PCV13), were available for inclusion. Fifty-four serotypes were identified in the entire collection and serotypes 14, 5 and 1 represented 50 % of the isolates. Resistance to penicillin was 34.9 %, cefotaxime 10.6 %, meropenem 4.9 %, cotrimoxazole 45 %, erythromycin 21.5 %, tetracycline 15.4 % and chloramphenicol 0.4 %. All the isolates were susceptible to levofloxacin, rifampin and vancomycin. Of 1713 isolates, 1061 (61.9 %) were non-susceptible to at least one antibiotic and 235(13.7 %) were multidrug resistant. A subset of 413 isolates was randomly selected and whole-genome sequenced as part of Global Pneumococcal Sequencing Project (GPS). The genome data was used to investigate the population structure of S. pneumoniae defining pneumococcal lineages using Global Pneumococcal Sequence Clusters (GPSCs), sequence types (STs) and clonal complexes (CCs), prevalent serotypes and their associated pneumococcal lineages and genomic inference of antimicrobial resistance. The collection showed a great diversity of strains. Among the 413 isolates, 73 known and 36 new STs were identified belonging to 38 CCs and 25 singletons, grouped into 52 GPSCs. Important changes were observed among vaccine types when pre-PCV and PCV13 periods were compared; a significant decrease in serotypes 14, 6B and 19F and a significant increase in 7F and 3. Among non-PCV13 types, serogroup 24 increased from 0 % in pre-PCV to 3.2 % in the PCV13 period. Our analysis showed that 66.1 % (273/413) of the isolates were predicted to be non-susceptible to at least one antibiotic and 11.9 % (49/413) were multidrug resistant. We found an agreement of 100 % when comparing the serotype determined by Quellung and WGS-based serotyping and 98.4 % of agreement in antimicrobial resistance. Continued surveillance of the pneumococcal population is needed to reveal the dynamics of pneumococcal isolates in Argentina in post-PCV13. This article contains data hosted by Microreact.

Colonization factors among enterotoxigenic Escherichia coli isolates from children with moderate-to-severe diarrhea and from matched controls in the Global Enteric Multicenter Study (GEMS).

BACKGROUND: Enterotoxigenic Escherichia coli (ETEC) encoding heat-stable enterotoxin (ST) alone or with heat-labile enterotoxin (LT) cause moderate-to-severe diarrhea (MSD) in developing country children. The Global Enteric Multicenter Study (GEMS) identified ETEC encoding ST among the top four enteropathogens. Since the GEMS objective was to provide evidence to guide development and implementation of enteric vaccines and other interventions to diminish diarrheal disease morbidity and mortality, we examined colonization factor (CF) prevalence among ETEC isolates from children age <5 years with MSD and from matched controls in four African and three Asian sites. We also assessed strength of association of specific CFs with MSD. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: MSD cases enrolled at healthcare facilities over three years and matched controls were tested in a standardized manner for many enteropathogens. To identify ETEC, three E. coli colonies per child were tested by polymerase chain reaction (PCR) to detect genes encoding LT, ST; confirmed ETEC were examined by PCR for major CFs (Colonization Factor Antigen I [CFA/I] or Coli Surface [CS] antigens CS1-CS6) and minor CFs (CS7, CS12, CS13, CS14, CS17, CS18, CS19, CS20, CS21, CS30). ETEC from 806 cases had a single toxin/CF profile in three tested strains per child. Major CFs, components of multiple ETEC vaccine candidates, were detected in 66.0% of LT/ST and ST-only cases and were associated with MSD versus matched controls by conditional logistic regression (p≤0.006); major CFs detected in only 25.0% of LT-only cases weren't associated with MSD. ETEC encoding exclusively CS14, identified among 19.9% of 291 ST-only and 1.5% of 259 LT/ST strains, were associated with MSD (p = 0.0011). No other minor CF exhibited prevalence ≥5% and significant association with MSD. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Major CF-based efficacious ETEC vaccines could potentially prevent up to 66% of pediatric MSD cases due to ST-encoding ETEC in developing countries; adding CS14 extends coverage to ~77%.

Typhoid Fever: Way Forward.

The Tackling Typhoid supplement shows that typhoid fever continues to be a problem globally despite socioeconomic gains in certain settings. Morbidity remains high in many endemic countries, notably in sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia. In addition, antimicrobial resistance is a growing issue that poses a challenge for clinical management. The findings from this supplement revealed that outside of high-income countries, there were few reliable population-based estimates of typhoid and paratyphoid fever derived from surveillance systems. This indicates the need for monitoring systems that can also characterize the effectiveness of interventions, particularly in low- and middle-income settings. The country case studies indicated that gains in economic conditions, education, and environmental health may be associated with reductions in typhoid fever burden. Over the study period, the effect is mainly notable in countries with higher baseline levels of economic development, female literacy, and investments in public sanitation. High burden countries must continue to invest in strategies at the local level to address environmental factors such as access to safe drinking water and improved public sanitation that are known to interrupt transmission or diminish the risk of acquiring typhoid. Developing more effective vaccines and incorporating appropriate immunization strategies that target populations with the greatest risk could potentially alleviate disease burden.

Antimicrobial resistance determinants and susceptibility profiles of pneumococcal isolates recovered in Trinidad and Tobago.

OBJECTIVES: In Latin America and the Caribbean, pneumococcal infections are estimated to account for 12000-18000 deaths, 327000 pneumonia cases, 4000 meningitis cases and 1229 sepsis cases each year in children under five years old. Pneumococcal antimicrobial resistance has evolved into a worldwide health problem in the last few decades. This study aimed to determine the antimicrobial susceptibility profiles of pneumococcal isolates collected in Trinidad and Tobago and their associated genetic determinants. METHODS: Whole-genome sequences were obtained from 98 pneumococcal isolates recovered at several regional hospitals, including 83 invasive and 15 non-invasive strains, recovered before (n=25) and after (n=73) introduction of pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCVs). A bioinformatics pipeline was used to identify core genomic and accessory elements conferring antimicrobial resistance phenotypes, including ß-lactam non-susceptibility. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION: Forty-one isolates (41.8%) were predicted as resistant to at least one antimicrobial class, including 13 (13.3%) resistant to at least three classes. The most common serotypes associated with antimicrobial resistance were 23F (n=10), 19F (n=8), 6B (n=6) and 14 (n=5). The most common serotypes associated with penicillin non-susceptibility were 19F (n=7) and 14 (n=5). Thirty-nine isolates (39.8%) were positive for PI-1 or PI-2 type pili: 30 (76.9%) were PI-1+, 4 (10.3%) were PI-2+ and 5 (12.8%) were positive for both PI-1 and PI-2. Of the 13 multidrug-resistant isolates, 10 belonged to globally distributed clones PMEN3 and PMEN14 and were isolated in the post-PCV period, suggesting clonal expansion.

Key features of invasive pneumococcal isolates recovered in Lima, Peru determined through whole genome sequencing.

Before PCV7 introduction, invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) was responsible for approximately 12,000-18,000 deaths annually among children <5years in Latin America. In Peru, PCV7 was introduced in 2009. We used whole genome sequencing to deduce key features of invasive strains collected in Lima, Peru from 2006 to 2011. We sequenced 212 IPD isolates from 16 hospitals in Lima pre (2006-2009; n=133) and post (2010-2011; n=79) PCV7 introduction; 130 (61.3%) isolates were from children≤5years old. CDC's Streptococcus lab bioinformatics pipeline revealed serotypes, sequence types (STs), pilus genes, PBP types and other resistance determinants. During the pre-PCV7 period, serotype 14 was the most common serotype (24.8%), followed by 6B (20.3%), 19F (10.5%), and 23F (6.8%). Post-PCV7, the proportion of PCV7 serotype 6B decreased significantly (to 6.3%), while 19F (16.3%), 14 (15.0%), 23F (7.5%), and 19A (7.5%) were the most common serotypes; only serotypes 3 and 10A increased significantly. Overall, 82% (n=173) of all isolates carried at least one resistance determinant, including 72 (34%) isolates that carried resistance determinants against 3 or more antimicrobial classes; of these 72 isolates, 56 (78%) belonged to a PCV7 serotype. Eighty-two STs were identified, with 53 of them organized in 14 clonal complexes. ST frequencies were distributed differently pre and post-PCV7 introduction, with only 18 of the 57 STs identified in years 2006-2009 isolates also observed in years 2010-2011 isolates. The apparent expansion of a 19F/ST1421 lineage with predicted ß-lactam resistance (PBP type 13:16:20) and carrying resistance determinants against four additional antimicrobial classes was observed.

Respiratory syncytial virus circulation in seven countries with Global Disease Detection Regional Centers.

BACKGROUND: Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is the leading cause of lower respiratory tract infections in young children globally, with the highest burden in low- and middle-income countries where the association between RSV activity and climate remains unclear. METHODS: Monthly laboratory-confirmed RSV cases and associations with climate data were assessed for respiratory surveillance sites in tropical and subtropical areas (Bangladesh, China, Egypt, Guatemala, Kenya, South Africa, and Thailand) during 2004-2012. Average monthly minimum and maximum temperatures, relative humidity, and precipitation were calculated using daily local weather data from the US National Climatic Data Center. RESULTS: RSV circulated with 1-2 epidemic periods each year in site areas. RSV seasonal timing and duration were generally consistent within country from year to year. Associations between RSV and weather varied across years and geographic locations. RSV usually peaked in climates with high annual precipitation (Bangladesh, Guatemala, and Thailand) during wet months, whereas RSV peaked during cooler months in moderately hot (China) and arid (Egypt) regions. In South Africa, RSV peaked in autumn, whereas no associations with seasonal weather trends were observed in Kenya. CONCLUSIONS: Further understanding of RSV seasonality in developing countries and various climate regions will be important to better understand the epidemiology of RSV and for timing the use of future RSV vaccines and immunoprophylaxis in low- and middle-income countries.

Discovery of diverse polyomaviruses in bats and the evolutionary history of the Polyomaviridae.

Polyomaviruses (PyVs) have been identified in a wide range of avian and mammalian species. However, little is known about their occurrence, genetic diversity and evolutionary history in bats, even though bats are important reservoirs for many emerging viral pathogens. This study screened 380 specimens from 35 bat species from Kenya and Guatemala for the presence of PyVs by semi-nested pan-PyV PCR assays. PyV DNA was detected in 24 of the 380 bat specimens. Phylogenetic analysis revealed that the bat PyV sequences formed 12 distinct lineages. Full-genome sequences were obtained for seven representative lineages and possessed similar genomic features to known PyVs. Strikingly, this evolutionary analysis revealed that the bat PyVs were paraphyletic, suggestive of multiple species jumps between bats and other mammalian species, such that the theory of virus-host co-divergence for mammalian PyVs as a whole could be rejected. In addition, evidence was found for strong heterogeneity in evolutionary rate and potential recombination in a number of PyV complete genomes, which complicates both phylogenetic analysis and virus classification. In summary, this study revealed that bats are important reservoirs of PyVs and that these viruses have a complex evolutionary history.

Putting surveillance data into context: the role of health care utilization surveys in understanding population burden of pneumonia in developing countries.

BACKGROUND: Surveillance is essential to estimating the global burden of pneumonia, yet differences in surveillance methodology and health care-seeking behaviors limit inter-country comparisons. METHODS: Results were compared from community surveys measuring health care-seeking for pneumonia defined as: (1) cough and difficulty breathing for ⩾2days; or, (2) provider-diagnosed pneumonia. Surveys were conducted in six sites in Guatemala, Kenya and Thailand; these sites also conduct, active, hospital- and population-based disease surveillance for pneumonia. RESULTS: Frequency of self-reported pneumonia during the preceding year ranged from 1.1% (Thailand) to 6.3% (Guatemala) and was highest in children aged <5years and in urban sites. The proportion of persons with pneumonia who sought hospital-based medical services ranged from 12% (Guatemala, Kenya) to 80% (Thailand) and was highest in children <5years of age. Hospitals and private provider offices were the most common places where persons with pneumonia sought health care. The most commonly cited reasons for not seeking health care were: (a) mild illness; (b) already recovering; and (3) cost of treatment. CONCLUSIONS: Health care-seeking patterns varied widely across countries. Using results from standardized health care utilization surveys to adjust facility-based surveillance estimates of pneumonia allows for more accurate and comparable estimates.