Risk-based treatment for patients with first relapse or progression of rhabdomyosarcoma: A report from the Children's Oncology Group.

BACKGROUND: The purpose of this study was to evaluate risk and response-based multi-agent therapy for patients with rhabdomyosarcoma (RMS) at first relapse. METHODS: Patients with RMS and measurable disease at first relapse with unfavorable-risk (UR) features were randomized to a 6-week phase 2 window with 1 of 2 treatment schedules of irinotecan with vincristine (VI) (previously reported). Those with at least a partial response to VI continued to receive 44 weeks of multi-agent chemotherapy including the assigned VI regimen. UR patients who did not have measurable disease at study entry, did not have a radiographic response after the VI window, or declined VI window therapy received 31 weeks of multi-agent chemotherapy including tirapazamine (TPZ) at weeks 1, 4, 10, 19, and 28. Favorable-risk (FR) patients received 31 weeks of the same multi-agent chemotherapy without VI and TPZ. RESULTS: One hundred thirty-six eligible patients were enrolled. For 61 patients not responding to VI, the 3-year failure-free survival (FFS) and overall survival (OS) rates were 17% (95% confidence interval [CI], 8%-29%) and 24% (13%-37%), respectively. For 30 UR patients not treated with VI, the 3-year FFS and OS rates were 21% (8%-37%) and 39% (20%-57%), respectively. FR patients had 3-year FFS and OS rates of 79% (47%-93%) and 84% (50%-96%), respectively. There were no unexpected toxicities. CONCLUSIONS: Patients with UR RMS at first relapse or disease progression have a poor prognosis when they are treated with this multi-agent therapy, whereas FR patients have a higher chance of being cured with second-line therapy.

Factors associated with failure of oncology drugs in late-stage clinical development: A systematic review.

BACKGROUND: We aimed to describe the reasons for failure of experimental anticancer drugs in late-stage clinical development. MATERIAL AND METHODS: We searched the PharmaProjects database (https://citeline.com/products/pharmaprojects/) for anticancer drugs discontinued between 01/01/2009 and 06/30/2014. Drug programs that reached phase III trials, but never gained Food and Drug Administration (FDA) approval were compared to 37 anti-cancer drugs achieving FDA approval in this time period. RESULTS: Forty-two drugs fit our criteria for development failures. These failed drugs (49% targeted, 23% cytotoxics, and 28% other) were tested in 43 cancer indications (drug programs). Only 16% (7/43) of failed drug programs adopted a biomarker-driven rationale for patient selection versus 57% (21/37) of successful drug programs (P<0.001). Phase II trial information was available in 32 of 43 failed drug programs and in 32 of 37 successful programs. Nine of the 32 trials (28%) of failed drugs versus 28 of 32 trials (87%) of successful drugs (P<0.001) achieved proof of concept (single agent response rate (RR) ⩾20% or combination therapy showing a ⩾20% RR increase above the median historical RR without the experimental agent (with a minimal absolute increase of 5%) or a randomized phase II trial showing significance (P⩽0.05) for its primary outcome). No pattern of study sites, trial design or funding characteristics emerged from the failed drug analysis. CONCLUSION: For drugs that reached Phase III, lack of a biomarker-driven strategy and failure to attain proof of concept in phase II are potential risk factors for later discontinuation, especially for targeted agents.

Randomized phase II window trial of two schedules of irinotecan with vincristine in patients with first relapse or progression of rhabdomyosarcoma: a report from the Children's Oncology Group.

PURPOSE: To compare response rates for two schedules of irinotecan with vincristine in patients with rhabdomyosarcoma at first relapse or disease progression. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Patients with first relapse or progression of rhabdomyosarcoma and an unfavorable prognosis were randomly assigned to one of two treatment schedules of irinotecan with vincristine: regimen 1A included irinotecan 20 mg/m(2)/d intravenously for 5 days at weeks 1, 2, 4, and 5 with vincristine 1.5 mg/m(2) administered intravenously on day 1 of weeks 1, 2, 4, and 5; regimen 1B included irinotecan 50 mg/m(2)/d intravenously for 5 days at weeks 1 and 4 with vincristine as in regimen 1A. Disease response was assessed at week 6. Those with responsive disease continued to receive 44 weeks of multiagent chemotherapy that incorporated the assigned irinotecan-vincristine regimen. RESULTS: Ninety-two eligible patients were randomly assigned (1A, 45; 1B, 47). Response could be assessed in 89 patients (1A, 42; 1B, 47). There were five complete responses and six partial responses on regimen 1A (response rate, 26%; 95% CI, 16% to 42%) and 17 partial responses on regimen 1B (response rate, 37%; 95% CI, 25% to 51%; P = .36). Neutropenia was less common on regimen 1A (P = .04). One-year failure-free and overall survival rates for regimen 1A were 37% (95% CI, 23% to 51%) and 55% (95% CI, 39% to 69%), respectively, and for 1B, they were 38% (95% CI, 25% to 53%) and 60% (95% CI, 44% to 72%). CONCLUSION: There was no difference in the response rates between the two irinotecan-vincristine schedules. We recommend the shorter, more convenient regimen (1B) for further investigation.

Assessment of response to induction therapy and its influence on 5-year failure-free survival in group III rhabdomyosarcoma: the Intergroup Rhabdomyosarcoma Study-IV experience--a report from the Soft Tissue Sarcoma Committee of the Children's Oncology Group.

PURPOSE: Initial response to induction chemotherapy predicts failure-free survival (FFS) in osteosarcoma and Ewing's sarcoma. For Intergroup Rhabdomyosarcoma Study (IRS) IV patients with group III rhabdomyosarcoma, we assessed whether reported response assessed by anatomic imaging at week 8 predicted FFS. PATIENTS AND METHODS: We studied 444 group III patients who received induction therapy, had response assessed at week 8 by anatomic imaging, and continued with protocol therapy. Induction chemotherapy was generally followed by radiation therapy (RT) starting after week 9. Response to induction therapy was determined at weeks 0 and 8. Local institutions coded response. RESULTS: Response rate for the entire cohort at week 8 was 77% (95% CI, 73% to 81%; complete response [CR], 21%; partial response [PR], 56%) but response had no influence on FFS (P = .57). Two hundred seventy-two patients received standard-timing RT at week 9 and thus only chemotherapy during induction. Response rate was 81% (95% CI, 76% to 86%; CR, 22%; PR, 59%). In these patients, response did not influence FFS except for those with alveolar histology. One hundred thirty-two other patients received chemotherapy and RT during induction (up-front RT). Response rate was 65% (95% CI, 57% to 73%; CR, 12%; PR, 53%), but response had no influence on FFS (P = .69). Forty patients received no RT at all (protocol violation) and response to induction therapy had no effect on FFS. CONCLUSION: In IRS-IV, response rate to induction therapy was 77% in group III patients, was independent of histology, and had no influence on FFS overall.

Upfront window trial of topotecan in previously untreated children and adolescents with poor prognosis metastatic osteosarcoma: children's Cancer Group (CCG) 7943.

BACKGROUND: Patients with metastatic osteosarcoma have a poor prognosis. The objectives of the study were to determine the antitumor activity and toxicity of topotecan (daily x5) in newly diagnosed patients with metastatic osteosarcoma followed by chemotherapy (ifosfamide, carboplatin, etoposide [ICE], alternating with cisplatin and doxorubicin [CD]). METHODS: Newly diagnosed patients (< or =30 years of age) with extensive metastatic disease (primary and > or =5 pulmonary nodules and/or bone metastases) with normal hepatic, renal, and cardiac function were eligible. Patients were eligible to receive further topotecan after standard chemotherapy if they exhibited a response. Twenty-eight patients were enrolled. Seventeen had metastases to the lung only and 11 had metastases to the bone or multiple sites. Of 28 patients enrolled, 27 could be evaluated for response. A limited dose escalation was incorporated. RESULTS: No responses were seen in the 11 patients treated at 3 mg/m(2)/day. One partial response (PR) and 1 clinical response (CLR) were reported among 15 patients who received topotecan at 3.5 mg/m(2)/day. No dose-limiting toxicity was observed. Principal nondose-limiting toxicities were hematologic and gastrointestinal. The 2- and 5-year event-free survival rates were low, 7% and 4%, respectively, but the 2- and 5-year overall survival rates were 44% and 22%, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Topotecan at dose of 3.5 mg/m(2)/day can be safely administered upfront to newly diagnosed patients without excessive toxicity. Insufficient activity was seen with topotecan in this schedule to warrant further studies in osteosarcoma. The combination of ICE and CD was tolerable when delivered after initial topotecan therapy.

End points to establish the efficacy of new agents in the treatment of acute leukemia.

Federal regulations provide 2 pathways for approval of new agents for the treatment of acute leukemia, regular and accelerated approval. Regular approval requires evidence of clinical benefit, which is generally defined as either prolongation of life or improved quality of life, or an effect on an end point established as a surrogate for clinical benefit. Accelerated approval can be obtained based on demonstration of an effect on a surrogate measure "reasonably likely" to predict clinical benefit, but requires demonstration of clinical benefit after approval as well. The acute leukemias are a heterogeneous and relatively uncommon group of diseases. The design and execution of prospective randomized clinical trials demonstrating prolongation of life or improved quality of life for patients with these disorders can be difficult and costly and require lengthy follow-up. Thus, the development of novel trial design and inclusion of validated surrogate markers for clinical benefit are needed. To explore some of the issues pertinent to the choice of end points for drug approval in acute leukemia, the Food and Drug Administration invited the American Society of Hematology to participate in the organization and conduct of a joint workshop. In this report, we present the results of that effort.

Pooled analysis of phase II window studies in children with contemporary high-risk metastatic rhabdomyosarcoma: a report from the Soft Tissue Sarcoma Committee of the Children's Oncology Group.

PURPOSE: The Soft Tissue Sarcoma Committee of the Children's Oncology Group has conducted five upfront window trials in patients with newly diagnosed metastatic rhabdomyosarcoma to identify promising new treatment agents. PATIENTS AND METHODS: This pooled analysis identified a total of 420 patients (115 from Intergroup Rhabdomyosarcoma Study III [IRS-III] and 305 from the five window trials). We assessed window therapy response rate, failure-free survival (FFS), and overall survival (OS). RESULTS: Response rates (complete + partial response) assessed at week 6 of window therapy ranged from 41% to 55% and did not predict FFS (P = .073) or OS (P = .31). FFS was influenced by trial (P = .048); patients enrolled onto IRS-III and the ifosfamide/etoposide and ifosfamide/doxorubicin trials fared best. When grouped and compared with topoisomerase I poison trials, ifosfamide/topoisomerase II inhibitor trials had superior FFS (P = .013). However, there was no difference in survival. CONCLUSION: Upfront phase II window trials can efficiently provide robust estimates of activity for new agents and combinations in newly diagnosed patients with high-risk rhabdomyosarcoma. Our data indicate that, for some phase II window trials, the risk of treatment failure may be increased but that the trend towards lower survival for some of the window trials compared with IRS-III is not statistically significant. Window nonresponders did not suffer worse FFS or OS than patients who responded to window therapy. Finally, these results provide a rationale for incorporating ifosfamide, etoposide, doxorubicin, and topoisomerase I poisons in future trials of high-risk metastatic rhabdomyosarcoma.

Expression and genomic status of EGFR and ErbB-2 in alveolar and embryonal rhabdomyosarcoma.

Both epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR) and ErbB-2 play an important role in cancer biology and constitute promising molecular targets of therapy. EGFR and ErbB-2 expression has been observed in rhabdomyosarcoma cell lines but not analyzed systematically in rhabdomyosarcoma tumors. Tissue microarray sections representing 66 rhabdomyosarcoma tumors (34 embryonal rhabdomyosarcoma, 32 alveolar rhabdomyosarcoma) were surveyed by immunohistochemistry using antibodies specific for EGFR and ErbB-2. Immunostains were assessed for intensity (0: no immunostaining; 1: weak; 2: moderate; 3: strong) and percentage of at least 500 neoplastic cells exhibiting membranous or membranous and cytoplasmic immunostaining. EGFR and ErbB-2 expression was considered positive if the product of intensity and percentage was greater than 10. Patients had a median age of 5.7 years (range 8 months-19.1 years), and of 65/66 patients, 38 were males and 27 were females. Expression of ErbB-2 was identified in 22/66 (33%) cases and tended to be more frequent in the alveolar subtype (13/32, 41%, vs 9/34, 26%, P=0.30). Expression of EGFR was identified in 31/66 (47%) cases and correlated with the embryonal subtype (26/34, 76%, vs 5/32, 16%, P<0.0001) independent of stage, age, and gender. Coexpression of EGFR and ErbB-2 was identified in eight tumors, of which six were embryonal rhabdomyosarcoma. None of the cases exhibited EGFR or ErbB-2 gene amplification, as assessed using fluorescence in situ hybridization. Furthermore, analysis of 11 additional rhabdomyosarcoma tumors (six alveolar; five embryonal) revealed no evidence of mutations in EGFR exons 18, 19, 20, and 21. In summary, expression of EGFR and/or ErbB-2 is detected in a sizeable subset of rhabdomyosarcoma tumors without evidence of EGFR or ErbB-2 amplification or mutations in the EGFR tyrosine kinase domain. Notably, expression of EGFR correlates with the embryonal subtype, which is also more likely to coexpress EGFR and ErbB-2.

Examination of gene fusion status in archival samples of alveolar rhabdomyosarcoma entered on the Intergroup Rhabdomyosarcoma Study-III trial: a report from the Children's Oncology Group.

Alveolar rhabdomyosarcoma (ARMS) is a soft tissue cancer in which chromosomal translocations generate PAX3-FKHR and PAX7-FKHR gene fusions. To improve the approach for fusion detection in archival samples, we developed a real-time reverse transcriptase-polymerase chain reaction assay for these fusion transcripts. By incorporating consensus primers and gene-specific probes, both presence and subtype of the fusion were determined in one assay. We applied this approach to a convenience sample of 78 formalin-fixed, paraffin-embedded ARMS tumors from the Intergroup Rhabdomyosarcoma Study (IRS)-III clinical trial and obtained satisfactory results in 59 (76%) cases. The distribution of fusion types was 35 (59%) PAX3-FKHR, 11 (19%) PAX7-FKHR, and 13 fusion-negative (22%). In a subsequent clinical analysis, we found that IRS-III ARMS cases analyzed for fusion status had a significantly improved outcome compared to IRS-III ARMS cases that were not available for fusion analysis. The basis of this outcome could not be explained by known prognostic clinical factors, and multivariate analysis confirmed that our convenience sample was not representative of the whole IRS-III cohort. In conclusion, although these robust assays provide new opportunities for correlative studies of archival material, our first application illustrates an important limitation of using a convenience sample for molecular-clinical correlative studies.

Rhabdomyosarcoma: new windows of opportunity.

Rhabdomyosarcoma is a highly malignant, small blue cell tumor characterized by muscle differentiation. With modern treatment, more than 70% of children and adolescents with this disease are cured. Adequate biopsy to obtain sufficient tissue for accurate diagnosis and molecular characterization is critical. Patients must be assessed for tumor extent; the Intergroup Rhabdomyosarcoma Study (IRS) clinical group and Staging system is universally applied in North America. Multidisciplinary therapy is necessary to maximize cure rates. Local control relies on complete surgical excision when possible; those whose tumors are not completely excised and those with alveolar histology tumors require local irradiation to maximize local control. In North America, vincristine (Oncovin); Eli Lilly and Company, Indianapolis, http://www.lilly.com), dactinomycin (Cosmegen); Merck & Co., Inc., Whitehouse Station, NJ, http://www.merck.com), and cyclophosphamide are the standard chemotherapy agents. The IRS has used therapeutic window studies to confirm the predictive nature of preclinical xenograft models and to identify several new single agents and combinations of agents with activity in high-risk patient groups. Despite these efforts, the outcome for these high-risk patients remains poor. The next generation of Children's Oncology Group studies will evaluate the efficacy of topoisomerase-I inhibitors and dose-compression therapy approaches. New advances in molecular characterization of tumors, including gene-expression analysis, may identify new therapeutic targets that can be exploited by expanded preclinical drug discovery efforts, and hold the promise of revolutionizing risk-based therapies.

Hospital resource utilization in childhood cancer.

To describe the patterns and predictors of hospital resource utilization in a cohort of children with newly diagnosed cancer, a retrospective cohort study of 195 consecutively diagnosed children with cancer at a single large Midwestern children's hospital was conducted. Patients were diagnosed between November 1995 and March 1997. All hospital encounters for these patients starting from the time of diagnosis to 3 years from diagnosis were identified using hospital administrative data. The patients were categorized into four diagnostic groups: lymphoid malignancies (acute lymphoblastic leukemia and lymphoma), myeloid leukemias (acute myeloid leukemia and chronic myeloid leukemia), central nervous system tumors, and solid tumors. Hospital charges and length of stay for patients in each diagnostic category were described. Predictive models for total resource consumption (total hospital charges) and intensive care use were derived. One hundred sixty-five of the 195 were admitted to Riley Hospital for Children at least once during the 3-year period following diagnosis. Among these 165, mean age at diagnosis was 6.9 years (minimum newborn, maximum 18.7 years). The ratio of boys to girls was 99:66 (1.5:1). The distribution of 165 diagnoses was as follows: 65 (39%) with lymphoid malignancy, 13 (8%) with myeloid leukemia, 36 (22%) with central nervous system tumors, and 51 (31%) with solid tumors. Sixty-two patients (38%) used the pediatric intensive care unit (PICU) at least once; 22 patients (13%) underwent stem cell transplantation. Sixty-five patients (39%) entered clinical trials. One hundred thirty-nine patients (84%) were alive at the end of 3 years. Three-year cumulative hospital charges were USD 16 million--almost USD 100,000/child hospitalized. Half of these charges were incurred in the first 4.5 months after diagnosis. Half of all hospital charges accrued to only 12.7% of patients; these patients were more likely to have a diagnosis of myeloid leukemia, to have undergone stem cell transplantation, and to have used the PICU. There were three independent predictors of hospital charges (log transformed): stem cell transplantation, PICU utilization, and death within 3 years of diagnosis. PICU utilization was predicted by tumor type (myeloid leukemia and central nervous system tumors were positive predictors of PICU utilization; lymphoid malignancy and solid tumors were negative predictors), stem cell transplantation, and death within 3 years of diagnosis. The authors conclude that hospitalization for childhood cancer is common, costly in the short term, and to some extent predictable. These data suggest that failures of current treatment not only lead to death but also add significantly to hospital resource utilization.

Does bladder preservation (as a surgical principle) lead to retaining bladder function in bladder/prostate rhabdomyosarcoma? Results from intergroup rhabdomyosarcoma study iv.

PURPOSE: We determine patient and tumor characteristics, event-free and overall survival, methods of local control, rate of bladder preservation and proportion with normal bladder function for patients with localized bladder/prostate (BP) rhabdomyosarcoma (RMS) treated on the Fourth Intergroup Rhabdomyosarcoma Study (IRS IV). MATERIALS AND METHODS: We reviewed the records of 90 patients with nonmetastatic BP RMS enrolled on IRS IV for presenting characteristics, details of therapy and outcome. RESULTS: Of the 90 records 88 had sufficient information for review. Patient age distribution was less than 1 year for 7 patients, 1 to 9 years for 71 and 10 or greater years for 10. Tumors commonly arose in the bladder (70%), had favorable histology (embryonal or botryoid 80%), large (69% greater than 5 cm), unresectable (84% group III) and invasive (56% T2). Local therapy included radiation in 74 patients, and most patients underwent second-look operations after radiation. All patients received alkylating based chemotherapy. With a median followup of 6.1 years there have been 3 second malignancies, 1 toxic death and 18 relapses, for an event-free survival rate of 77%. Bladders were retained without relapse at last contact in 55 patients. Of those 55 patients 36 and of the entire group 40% had normal function determined by history. CONCLUSIONS: Of patients with nonmetastatic BP RMS on IRS IV 82% survived 6 years. Bladder function was preserved in 55% (36/66) of event-free survivors. Of all patients entered on study 40% (36 of 88) survive event-free with apparently normal functioning bladders. More precise long-term evaluation of bladder and sexual function will require application of better tools such as urodynamic studies and validated patient surveys.

Efficacy of topotecan and cyclophosphamide given in a phase II window trial in children with newly diagnosed metastatic rhabdomyosarcoma: a Children's Oncology Group study.

PURPOSE: To determine the antitumor activity and toxicity of topotecan given immediately after cyclophosphamide as window therapy, then in combination with conventional agents in pediatric patients with newly diagnosed metastatic rhabdomyosarcoma (RMS). PATIENTS AND METHODS: Sixty-one patients younger than 21 years with newly diagnosed metastatic RMS or undifferentiated sarcoma were assigned window therapy (weeks 0 to 6) with topotecan (0.75 mg/m(2) daily x 5 every 21 days) immediately after cyclophosphamide (250 mg/m(2) daily x 5 every 21 days; TC). We continued to give these agents in combination with vincristine (VTC) to patients who showed objective improvement, partial response (PR), or complete response (CR) to TC and alternated courses of VTC with vincristine, dactinomycin and cyclophosphamide (VAC) during weeks 6 to 41 (VTC/VAC). Those who showed no response or progressive disease after TC received only VAC. All patients received radiotherapy to sites of unresected disease (weeks 15 to 21). RESULTS: The overall response rate (CR + PR) to TC was 47% (95% CI, 35% to 60%). Tumor size < or = 5 cm was associated with early response. Myelosuppression was the primary toxicity to TC. Overall 3-year disease-free survival and survival were estimated to be 10% (95% CI, 2% to 19%) and 20% (95% CI, 8% to 32%), respectively. Toxicity profiles for patients who received VTC/VAC or VAC alone were comparable. CONCLUSION: Topotecan after cyclophosphamide is a combination that is active against newly diagnosed RMS, with an acceptable toxicity profile. Disease-free survival and overall survival, however, remain disappointing for children with metastatic RMS at diagnosis.

Web-based decision support for clinical trial eligibility determination in an international clinical trials network.

Matching individuals to multisite cooperative clinical trials can be a complex and nonintuitive decision process that expends considerable time and may be prone to errors. We developed and tested a web-based decision support tool to aid investigators in matching patients to open clinical trials for children with rhabdomyosarcoma in the context of an international cooperative cancer clinical trials network. A decision tree for trial eligibility based on eight clinical variables representing major disease characteristics was translated into a web-based format. In a blinded fashion, we assessed the accuracy of the tool in assigning 100 randomly selected cases to the proper clinical trial. The web-based tool assigned patients to the proper clinical trial in all 100 randomly selected cases. The time needed to enter data and receive results using this tool is about 1 minute per patient entered. It is feasible to develop a web-based tool to help investigators in matching patients to clinical trials. When such decisions are complex and nonintuitive, such tools have the potential to improve the accuracy of clinical trial assignment and save time.

Value of electronic data for model validation and refinement: bacteremia risk in children with fever and neutropenia.

BACKGROUND: Validating published risk models in a different time and setting can be a labor-intensive process. Data in electronic format provide the potential to test the validity of risk models without labor-intensive chart reviews and data capture. The authors attempted to use readily available electronic data to find appropriate cases and to validate and refine a previously developed risk model for predicting bacteremia in children with cancer who had fever and neutropenia. PATIENTS AND METHODS: By applying a largely automated case-finding algorithm to linked, electronic clinical and administrative data systems, the authors identified and acquired data regarding 157 episodes of fever and neutropenia in children with cancer admitted to a children's hospital during an 11-month period in 1997. The authors applied a previously developed and validated risk model for bacteremia to this 1997 cohort by assessing the odds ratios among risk groups. The model assigns encounters with absolute monocyte count of 100 cells or more/mm3 to a low-risk group and encounters with an absolute monocyte count of less than 100 cells/mm3 to intermediate-risk (temperature <39.0 degrees C) or high-risk (> or = 39.0 degrees C) groups. In addition, the authors explored whether the new data would have generated the same model. Univariate and multivariable analyses were performed to determine whether there were additional independent predictors of bacteremia. Recursive partitioning of admission absolute monocyte count and temperature was used to assess whether similar cutpoints would be found. RESULTS: There were 12 episodes of bacteremia (7.6%) among the 157 encounters. The previously developed model correctly predicted increasing rates of bacteremia in this 1997 cohort, ranging from 2.5% in the low-risk group (one episode in a child with an infected central line) to 24% in the high-risk group. The odds ratio for the high-risk versus intermediate-risk group was 4.09 (95% confidence interval 1.05-15.91), comparable to the odds ratio of 3.96 in the previously published derivation cohort (95% confidence interval 1.4-11.1). Multivariate analysis of the new data revealed no independent risk factors for bacteremia other than admission absolute monocyte count and temperature. Recursive partitioning of absolute monocyte count and temperature generated risk categories that were somewhat different from those of the original model. The new data yielded three categories: low risk (temperature < or = 39.5 degrees C and absolute monocyte count >10/mm3), intermediate risk (temperature < or = 39.5 degrees C and absolute monocyte count < or = 10/mm3), and high risk (temperature >39.5 degrees C). CONCLUSIONS: Existing electronic data provide an efficient means for case-finding and model validation and refinement. The previously developed bacteremia model had good but not optimal predictive performance in the new data set. Admission absolute monocyte count and temperature remain significant risk factors for bacteremia. Redefining the risk categories, including a much lower cutpoint for admission absolute monocyte count, improved the model's discrimination, which suggests that predictive models need periodic updating.

Modeling administrative outcomes in fever and neutropenia: clinical variables significantly influence length of stay and hospital charges.

BACKGROUND: Administrative outcomes such as length of stay and charges are used to compare the quality of care across institutions and among individual providers. Clinical variables representing disease severity may explain some of the variability in these outcomes. OBJECTIVE: To determine the extent to which readily available clinical data can explain the variability in length of stay and charges for children with cancer admitted to the hospital for fever and neutropenia, and to assess the appropriateness of using a time-efficient electronic case-finding strategy for the development of administrative outcome models. METHODS: A retrospective cohort of 157 fever and neutropenia encounters in a single institution during 11 months in 1997 was identified using a largely automated case-finding strategy followed by independent, blinded review of the selected discharge summaries. Models of admission variables predicting log length of stay and log charges were developed using multiple linear regression. The "smearing" technique of Duan adjusted for logarithmic retransformation was used in calculating each subject's predicted length of stay and charges. R2 values were calculated. There were two secondary analyses. In one, the result of admission blood culture was entered as a potential covariate. In the second, to evaluate the appropriateness of basing models on automated case-finding without discharge summary review, the authors rederived the models using all of the encounters (n = 160) identified by the algorithm, which had included three false-positive cases. RESULTS: Mean length of stay was 6.45 days. Mean charges were $11,967. Absolute monocyte count at admission was a significant, independent negative predictor of length of stay and charges. Underlying cancer diagnosis also was significant. Charges were highest for acute myeloid leukemia, followed by central nervous system tumors, other solid tumors, and acute lymphoblastic leukemia and lymphomas. Length of stay was highest for acute myeloid leukemia, followed by central nervous system tumors, acute lymphoblastic leukemia and lymphomas, and other solid tumors. Absolute monocyte count and tumor type were the major components of the model, but admission temperature (for both administrative outcomes) and the presence of localized infection (for length of stay) also were significant predictors. R2 values were 35.3% (charges) and 38.5% (length of stay), with validation R2 values of 26.6% and 29.2%, respectively. Entering bacteremia as a covariate improved the models. Inclusion of the three false-positive cases generated models with only a modest loss of accuracy; it introduced over-and underreporting of some of the less significant predictors but did not disrupt the ability to identify the major predictors, absolute monocyte count and tumor type. CONCLUSIONS: The clinical variables that were significant in this study account, in validation R2 estimates, for more than 25% of the variability in administrative outcomes for encounters of fever and neutropenia. Adjusting length of stay and charges for these clinical variables would allow for a fairer comparison of institutions and individual providers. The electronic case-finding algorithm served as an efficient way to identify absolute monocyte count and tumor type as the major predictors and provided a conservative estimate of R2.

Early introduction of an evidence-based medicine course to preclinical medical students.

Evidence-based Medicine (EBM) has been increasingly integrated into medical education curricula. Using an observational research design, we evaluated the feasibility of introducing a 1-month problem-based EBM course for 139 first-year medical students at a large university center. We assessed program performance through the use of a web-based curricular component and practice exam, final examination scores, student satisfaction surveys, and a faculty questionnaire. Students demonstrated active involvement in learning EBM and ability to use EBM principles. Facilitators felt that students performed well and compared favorably with residents whom they had supervised in the past year. Both faculty and students were satisfied with the EBM course. To our knowledge, this is the first report to demonstrate that early introduction of EBM principles as a short course to preclinical medical students is feasible and practical.