Invasiveness risks of naked goby, Gobiosoma bosc, to North Sea transitional waters.

In recent decades, gobies have dispersed or introduced from the Ponto-Caspian region of eastern Europe in a westerly direction to North American and western European waters. By contrast, the naked goby, Gobiosoma bosc, is the only known gobiid species to have been introduced in an easterly direction from North American to western Europe. The potential invasiveness of G. bosc was assessed using the Aquatic Species Invasiveness Screening Kit (AS-ISK) for rivers and transitional waters for the western and eastern sides of the North Sea. Using globally-derived thresholds, G. bosc was assessed as low-medium invasiveness risk for both sides of the North Sea under current climate conditions. Under future climate conditions, potential invasiveness will increase for both risk assessment areas. Environmental suitability assessment indicated an increase in environmental suitability for G. bosc on the eastern coastline of the North Sea under climate change scenarios and suitability remained unchanged on the western coastline, reflecting the authors' expectations of invasiveness risk.

The importance of migratory connectivity for global ocean policy.

The distributions of migratory species in the ocean span local, national and international jurisdictions. Across these ecologically interconnected regions, migratory marine species interact with anthropogenic stressors throughout their lives. Migratory connectivity, the geographical linking of individuals and populations throughout their migratory cycles, influences how spatial and temporal dynamics of stressors affect migratory animals and scale up to influence population abundance, distribution and species persistence. Population declines of many migratory marine species have led to calls for connectivity knowledge, especially insights from animal tracking studies, to be more systematically and synthetically incorporated into decision-making. Inclusion of migratory connectivity in the design of conservation and management measures is critical to ensure they are appropriate for the level of risk associated with various degrees of connectivity. Three mechanisms exist to incorporate migratory connectivity into international marine policy which guides conservation implementation: site-selection criteria, network design criteria and policy recommendations. Here, we review the concept of migratory connectivity and its use in international policy, and describe the Migratory Connectivity in the Ocean system, a migratory connectivity evidence-base for the ocean. We propose that without such collaboration focused on migratory connectivity, efforts to effectively conserve these critical species across jurisdictions will have limited effect.

Evaluating the role of coastal habitats and sea-level rise in hurricane risk mitigation: An ecological economic assessment method and application to a business decision.

Businesses may be missing opportunities to account for ecosystem services in their decisions, because they do not have methods to quantify and value ecosystem services. We developed a method to quantify and value coastal protection and other ecosystem services in the context of a cost-benefit analysis of hurricane risk mitigation options for a business. We first analyze linked biophysical and economic models to examine the potential protection provided by marshes. We then applied this method to The Dow Chemical Company's Freeport, Texas facility to evaluate natural (marshes), built (levee), and hybrid (marshes and a levee designed for marshes) defenses against a 100-y hurricane. Model analysis shows that future sea-level rise decreases marsh area, increases flood heights, and increases the required levee height (12%) and cost (8%). In this context, marshes do not provide sufficient protection to the facility, located 12 km inland, to warrant a change in levee design for a 100-y hurricane. Marshes do provide some protection near shore and under smaller storm conditions, which may help maintain the coastline and levee performance in the face of sea-level rise. In sum, the net present value to the business of built defenses ($217 million [2010 US$]) is greater than natural defenses ($15 million [2010 US$]) and similar to the hybrid defense scenario ($229 million [2010 US$]). Examination of a sample of public benefits from the marshes shows they provide at least $117 million (2010 US$) in coastal protection, recreational value, and C sequestration to the public, while supporting 12 fisheries and more than 300 wildlife species. This study provides information on where natural defenses may be effective and a replicable approach that businesses can use to incorporate private, as well as public, ecosystem service values into hurricane risk management at other sites.

No Reef Is an Island: Integrating Coral Reef Connectivity Data into the Design of Regional-Scale Marine Protected Area Networks.

We integrated coral reef connectivity data for the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico into a conservation decision-making framework for designing a regional scale marine protected area (MPA) network that provides insight into ecological and political contexts. We used an ocean circulation model and regional coral reef data to simulate eight spawning events from 2008-2011, applying a maximum 30-day pelagic larval duration and 20% mortality rate. Coral larval dispersal patterns were analyzed between coral reefs across jurisdictional marine zones to identify spatial relationships between larval sources and destinations within countries and territories across the region. We applied our results in Marxan, a conservation planning software tool, to identify a regional coral reef MPA network design that meets conservation goals, minimizes underlying threats, and maintains coral reef connectivity. Our results suggest that approximately 77% of coral reefs identified as having a high regional connectivity value are not included in the existing MPA network. This research is unique because we quantify and report coral larval connectivity data by marine ecoregions and Exclusive Economic Zones (EZZ) and use this information to identify gaps in the current Caribbean-wide MPA network by integrating asymmetric connectivity information in Marxan to design a regional MPA network that includes important reef network connections. The identification of important reef connectivity metrics guides the selection of priority conservation areas and supports resilience at the whole system level into the future.

Modeled Sea Level Rise Impacts on Coastal Ecosystems at Six Major Estuaries on Florida's Gulf Coast: Implications for Adaptation Planning.

The Sea Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM) was applied at six major estuaries along Florida's Gulf Coast (Pensacola Bay, St. Andrews/Choctawhatchee Bays, Apalachicola Bay, Southern Big Bend, Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor) to provide quantitative and spatial information on how coastal ecosystems may change with sea level rise (SLR) and to identify how this information can be used to inform adaption planning. High resolution LiDAR-derived elevation data was utilized under three SLR scenarios: 0.7 m, 1 m and 2 m through the year 2100 and uncertainty analyses were conducted on selected input parameters at three sites. Results indicate that the extent, spatial orientation and relative composition of coastal ecosystems at the study areas may substantially change with SLR. Under the 1 m SLR scenario, total predicted impacts for all study areas indicate that coastal forest (-69,308 ha; -18%), undeveloped dry land (-28,444 ha; -2%) and tidal flat (-25,556 ha; -47%) will likely face the greatest loss in cover by the year 2100. The largest potential gains in cover were predicted for saltmarsh (+32,922 ha; +88%), transitional saltmarsh (+23,645 ha; na) and mangrove forest (+12,583 ha; +40%). The Charlotte Harbor and Tampa Bay study areas were predicted to experience the greatest net loss in coastal wetlands The uncertainty analyses revealed low to moderate changes in results when some numerical SLAMM input parameters were varied highlighting the value of collecting long-term sedimentation, accretion and erosion data to improve SLAMM precision. The changes predicted by SLAMM will affect exposure of adjacent human communities to coastal hazards and ecosystem functions potentially resulting in impacts to property values, infrastructure investment and insurance rates. The results and process presented here can be used as a guide for communities vulnerable to SLR to identify and prioritize adaptation strategies that slow and/or accommodate the changes underway.

Definition of homogeneous environmental management units for the Catalan coast.

Geographical areas constitute the basic implementation locus for integrated coastal zone management strategies and activities. Because the definition of territorial planning objectives may be affected by socioeconomic and environmental characteristics, one of the main steps in the process involves dividing the coast into homogeneous environmental management units (HEMUs). This article presents a general and simple method for regionalizing the landside of a coastal zone into HEMUs and illustrates it through application to the Catalan coast. Socioeconomic and natural (biophysical) subsystems were selected as the most appropriate dimensions of the regionalization process. Dimensions were described using 11 spatial themes, which were managed in a geographic information system environment that proved to be an adequate tool for the purpose. A final coastal zone map of four classes of HEMUs connected to local administrative units was obtained, and because it reflects the current natural and socioeconomic dynamics, it can be considered as an initial step in the planning process for the Catalan coast. Although the proposed method was developed based on the characteristics of the Catalan coast, it is general enough to be adapted and applied to most developed or developing coastal areas.