Evaluation of pragmatic oxygenation measurement as a proxy for Covid-19 severity.

Choosing optimal outcome measures maximizes statistical power, accelerates discovery and improves reliability in early-phase trials. We devised and evaluated a modification to a pragmatic measure of oxygenation function, the [Formula: see text] ratio. Because of the ceiling effect in oxyhaemoglobin saturation, [Formula: see text] ratio ceases to reflect pulmonary oxygenation function at high [Formula: see text] values. We found that the correlation of [Formula: see text] with the reference standard ([Formula: see text]/[Formula: see text] ratio) improves substantially when excluding [Formula: see text] and refer to this measure as [Formula: see text]. Using observational data from 39,765 hospitalised COVID-19 patients, we demonstrate that [Formula: see text] is predictive of mortality, and compare the sample sizes required for trials using four different outcome measures. We show that a significant difference in outcome could be detected with the smallest sample size using [Formula: see text]. We demonstrate that [Formula: see text] is an effective intermediate outcome measure in COVID-19. It is a non-invasive measurement, representative of disease severity and provides greater statistical power.

Typing myalgic encephalomyelitis by infection at onset: A DecodeME study.

Background: People with myalgic encephalomyelitis/chronic fatigue syndrome (ME/CFS) experience core symptoms of post-exertional malaise, unrefreshing sleep, and cognitive impairment. Despite numbering 0.2-0.4% of the population, no laboratory test is available for their diagnosis, no effective therapy exists for their treatment, and no scientific breakthrough regarding pathogenesis has been made. It remains unknown, despite decades of small-scale studies, whether individuals experience different types of ME/CFS separated by onset-type, sex or age. Methods: DecodeME is a large population-based study of ME/CFS that recruited 17,074 participants in the first 3 months following full launch. Detailed questionnaire responses from UK-based participants who all reported being diagnosed with ME/CFS by a health professional provided an unparalleled opportunity to investigate, using logistic regression, whether ME/CFS severity or onset type is significantly associated with sex, age, illness duration, comorbid conditions or symptoms. Results: The well-established sex-bias among ME/CFS patients is evident in the initial DecodeME cohort: 83.5% of participants were females. What was not known previously was that females tend to have more comorbidities than males. Moreover, being female, being older and being over 10 years from ME/CFS onset are significantly associated with greater severity. Five different ME/CFS onset types were examined in the self-reported data: those with ME/CFS onset (i) after glandular fever (infectious mononucleosis); (ii) after COVID-19 infection; (iii) after other infections; (iv) without an infection at onset; and, (v) where the occurrence of an infection at or preceding onset is not known. Among other findings, ME/CFS onset with unknown infection status was significantly associated with active fibromyalgia. Conclusions: DecodeME participants differ in symptoms, comorbid conditions and/or illness severity when stratified by their sex-at-birth and/or infection around the time of ME/CFS onset.

Myalgic Encephalomyelitis / Chronic Fatigue Syndrome (ME/CFS) is a chronic disease that affects an estimated 250,000 people in the UK. Its defining symptom is post-exertional malaise, an excessive delayed worsening of symptoms following even minor physical or mental exertion. For those with it, ME/CFS means disability and poor quality of life. DecodeME is a research study which is looking for DNA differences between people with ME/CFS and people without any health problems. People with ME/CFS who take part in DecodeME complete a questionnaire that assesses their symptoms and whether they will then be invited to donate a DNA sample. This paper analyses the answers to this questionnaire; we will publish results of the DNA analysis separately. So far, more than 17 thousand people with ME/CFS have completed the DecodeME questionnaire. Their answers help us to address the question: "Are there different types of ME/CFS linked to different causes and how severe it becomes?" Results show that people with ME/CFS do not form a single group reporting similar symptoms and additional medical conditions. Instead, participants who had an infection at the start of their ME/CFS reported a different pattern of symptoms and conditions compared to those without an infection. It is well known that most people with ME/CFS are females. What was not clear previously was that females tend to have more additional health conditions. Also, being female, being older and being over 10 years from ME/CFS onset all make it more likely that someone is more severely affected by their ME/CFS. These findings could indicate that by studying people with different ME/CFS onset-types separately ­ rather than analysing all people with ME/CFS together ­ it will be easier to understand what is going wrong.

GWAS and meta-analysis identifies 49 genetic variants underlying critical COVID-19.

Critical illness in COVID-19 is an extreme and clinically homogeneous disease phenotype that we have previously shown1 to be highly efficient for discovery of genetic associations2. Despite the advanced stage of illness at presentation, we have shown that host genetics in patients who are critically ill with COVID-19 can identify immunomodulatory therapies with strong beneficial effects in this group3. Here we analyse 24,202 cases of COVID-19 with critical illness comprising a combination of microarray genotype and whole-genome sequencing data from cases of critical illness in the international GenOMICC (11,440 cases) study, combined with other studies recruiting hospitalized patients with a strong focus on severe and critical disease: ISARIC4C (676 cases) and the SCOURGE consortium (5,934 cases). To put these results in the context of existing work, we conduct a meta-analysis of the new GenOMICC genome-wide association study (GWAS) results with previously published data. We find 49 genome-wide significant associations, of which 16 have not been reported previously. To investigate the therapeutic implications of these findings, we infer the structural consequences of protein-coding variants, and combine our GWAS results with gene expression data using a monocyte transcriptome-wide association study (TWAS) model, as well as gene and protein expression using Mendelian randomization. We identify potentially druggable targets in multiple systems, including inflammatory signalling (JAK1), monocyte-macrophage activation and endothelial permeability (PDE4A), immunometabolism (SLC2A5 and AK5), and host factors required for viral entry and replication (TMPRSS2 and RAB2A).

Genetic Landscape of the ACE2 Coronavirus Receptor.

BACKGROUND: SARS-CoV-2, the causal agent of COVID-19, enters human cells using the ACE2 (angiotensin-converting enzyme 2) protein as a receptor. ACE2 is thus key to the infection and treatment of the coronavirus. ACE2 is highly expressed in the heart and respiratory and gastrointestinal tracts, playing important regulatory roles in the cardiovascular and other biological systems. However, the genetic basis of the ACE2 protein levels is not well understood. METHODS: We have conducted the largest genome-wide association meta-analysis of plasma ACE2 levels in >28 000 individuals of the SCALLOP Consortium (Systematic and Combined Analysis of Olink Proteins). We summarize the cross-sectional epidemiological correlates of circulating ACE2. Using the summary statistics-based high-definition likelihood method, we estimate relevant genetic correlations with cardiometabolic phenotypes, COVID-19, and other human complex traits and diseases. We perform causal inference of soluble ACE2 on vascular disease outcomes and COVID-19 severity using mendelian randomization. We also perform in silico functional analysis by integrating with other types of omics data. RESULTS: We identified 10 loci, including 8 novel, capturing 30% of the heritability of the protein. We detected that plasma ACE2 was genetically correlated with vascular diseases, severe COVID-19, and a wide range of human complex diseases and medications. An X-chromosome cis-protein quantitative trait loci-based mendelian randomization analysis suggested a causal effect of elevated ACE2 levels on COVID-19 severity (odds ratio, 1.63 [95% CI, 1.10-2.42]; P=0.01), hospitalization (odds ratio, 1.52 [95% CI, 1.05-2.21]; P=0.03), and infection (odds ratio, 1.60 [95% CI, 1.08-2.37]; P=0.02). Tissue- and cell type-specific transcriptomic and epigenomic analysis revealed that the ACE2 regulatory variants were enriched for DNA methylation sites in blood immune cells. CONCLUSIONS: Human plasma ACE2 shares a genetic basis with cardiovascular disease, COVID-19, and other related diseases. The genetic architecture of the ACE2 protein is mapped, providing a useful resource for further biological and clinical studies on this coronavirus receptor.

Genome-wide analysis identifies gallstone-susceptibility loci including genes regulating gastrointestinal motility.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have identified several risk loci for gallstone disease. As with most polygenic traits, it is likely that many genetic determinants are undiscovered. The aim of this study was to identify genetic variants that represent new targets for gallstone research and treatment. APPROACH AND RESULTS: We performed a GWAS of 28,627 gallstone cases and 348,373 controls in the UK Biobank, replicated findings in a Scottish cohort (1089 cases, 5228 controls), and conducted a GWA meta-analysis (43,639 cases, 506,798 controls) with the FinnGen cohort. We assessed pathway enrichment using gene-based then gene-set analysis and tissue expression of identified genes in Genotype-Tissue Expression project data. We constructed a polygenic risk score (PRS) and evaluated phenotypic traits associated with the score. Seventy-five risk loci were identified (p < 5 × 10-8 ), of which 46 were new. Pathway enrichment revealed associations with lipid homeostasis, glucuronidation, phospholipid metabolism, and gastrointestinal motility. Anoctamin 1 (ANO1) and transmembrane Protein 147 (TMEM147), both in novel, replicated loci, are expressed in the gallbladder and gastrointestinal tract. Both regulate gastrointestinal motility. The gallstone risk allele rs7599-A leads to suppression of hepatic TMEM147 expression, suggesting that the protein protects against gallstone formation. The highest decile of the PRS demonstrated a 6-fold increased odds of gallstones compared with the lowest decile. The PRS was strongly associated with increased body mass index, serum liver enzymes, and C-reactive protein concentrations, and decreased lipoprotein cholesterol concentrations. CONCLUSIONS: This GWAS demonstrates the polygenic nature of gallstone risk and identifies 46 novel susceptibility loci. We implicate genes influencing gastrointestinal motility in the pathogenesis of gallstones.

Genome-Wide Association Study of NAFLD Using Electronic Health Records.

Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have identified several risk loci for nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD). Previous studies have largely relied on small sample sizes and have assessed quantitative traits. We performed a case-control GWAS in the UK Biobank using recorded diagnosis of NAFLD based on diagnostic codes recommended in recent consensus guidelines. We performed a GWAS of 4,761 cases of NAFLD and 373,227 healthy controls without evidence of NAFLD. Sensitivity analyses were performed excluding other co-existing hepatic pathology, adjusting for body mass index (BMI) and adjusting for alcohol intake. A total of 9,723,654 variants were assessed by logistic regression adjusted for age, sex, genetic principal components, and genotyping batch. We performed a GWAS meta-analysis using available summary association statistics. Six risk loci were identified (P < 5*10-8 ) (apolipoprotein E [APOE], patatin-like phospholipase domain containing 3 [PNPLA3, transmembrane 6 superfamily member 2 [TM6SF2], glucokinase regulator [GCKR], mitochondrial amidoxime reducing component 1 [MARC1], and tribbles pseudokinase 1 [TRIB1]). All loci retained significance in sensitivity analyses without co-existent hepatic pathology and after adjustment for BMI. PNPLA3 and TM6SF2 remained significant after adjustment for alcohol (alcohol intake was known in only 158,388 individuals), with others demonstrating consistent direction and magnitude of effect. All six loci were significant on meta-analysis. Rs429358 (P = 2.17*10-11 ) is a missense variant within the APOE gene determining ϵ4 versus ϵ2/ϵ3 alleles. The ϵ4 allele of APOE offered protection against NAFLD (odds ratio for heterozygotes 0.84 [95% confidence interval 0.78-0.90] and homozygotes 0.64 [0.50-0.79]). Conclusion: This GWAS replicates six known NAFLD-susceptibility loci and confirms that the ϵ4 allele of APOE is associated with protection against NAFLD. The results are consistent with published GWAS using histological and radiological measures of NAFLD, confirming that NAFLD identified through diagnostic codes from consensus guidelines is a valid alternative to more invasive and costly approaches.

Lifestyle and Genetic Factors Modify Parent-of-Origin Effects on the Human Methylome.

BACKGROUND: parent-of-origin effects (POE) play important roles in complex disease and thus understanding their regulation and associated molecular and phenotypic variation are warranted. Previous studies mainly focused on the detection of genomic regions or phenotypes regulated by POE. Understanding whether POE may be modified by environmental or genetic exposures is important for understanding of the source of POE-associated variation, but only a few case studies addressing modifiable POE exist. METHODS: in order to understand this high order of POE regulation, we screened 101 genetic and environmental factors such as 'predicted mRNA expression levels' of DNA methylation/imprinting machinery genes and environmental exposures. POE-mQTL-modifier interaction models were proposed to test the potential of these factors to modify POE at DNA methylation using data from Generation Scotland: The Scottish Family Health Study(N=2315). FINDINGS: a set of vulnerable/modifiable POE-CpGs were identified (modifiable-POE-regulated CpGs, N=3). Four factors, 'lifetime smoking status' and 'predicted mRNA expression levels' of TET2, SIRT1 and KDM1A, were found to significantly modify the POE on the three CpGs in both discovery and replication datasets. We further identified plasma protein and health-related phenotypes associated with the methylation level of one of the identified CpGs. INTERPRETATION: the modifiable POE identified here revealed an important yet indirect path through which genetic background and environmental exposures introduce their effect on DNA methylation, motivating future comprehensive evaluation of the role of these modifiers in complex diseases. FUNDING: NSFC (81971270),H2020-MSCA-ITN(721815), Wellcome (204979/Z/16/Z,104036/Z/14/Z), MRC (MC_UU_00007/10, MC_PC_U127592696), CSO (CZD/16/6,CZB/4/276, CZB/4/710), SFC (HR03006), EUROSPAN (LSHG-CT-2006-018947), BBSRC (BBS/E/D/30002276), SYSU, Arthritis Research UK, NHLBI, NIH.

Genomic and phenotypic insights from an atlas of genetic effects on DNA methylation.

Characterizing genetic influences on DNA methylation (DNAm) provides an opportunity to understand mechanisms underpinning gene regulation and disease. In the present study, we describe results of DNAm quantitative trait locus (mQTL) analyses on 32,851 participants, identifying genetic variants associated with DNAm at 420,509 DNAm sites in blood. We present a database of >270,000 independent mQTLs, of which 8.5% comprise long-range (trans) associations. Identified mQTL associations explain 15-17% of the additive genetic variance of DNAm. We show that the genetic architecture of DNAm levels is highly polygenic. Using shared genetic control between distal DNAm sites, we constructed networks, identifying 405 discrete genomic communities enriched for genomic annotations and complex traits. Shared genetic variants are associated with both DNAm levels and complex diseases, but only in a minority of cases do these associations reflect causal relationships from DNAm to trait or vice versa, indicating a more complex genotype-phenotype map than previously anticipated.

Assessing the role of genome-wide DNA methylation between smoking and risk of lung cancer using repeated measurements: the HUNT study.

BACKGROUND: It is unclear if smoking-related DNA methylation represents a causal pathway between smoking and risk of lung cancer. We sought to identify novel smoking-related DNA methylation sites in blood, with repeated measurements, and to appraise the putative role of DNA methylation in the pathway between smoking and lung cancer development. METHODS: We derived a nested case-control study from the Trøndelag Health Study (HUNT), including 140 incident patients who developed lung cancer during 2009-13 and 140 controls. We profiled 850 K DNA methylation sites (Illumina Infinium EPIC array) in DNA extracted from blood that was collected in HUNT2 (1995-97) and HUNT3 (2006-08) for the same individuals. Epigenome-wide association studies (EWAS) were performed for a detailed smoking phenotype and for lung cancer. Two-step Mendelian randomization (MR) analyses were performed to assess the potential causal effect of smoking on DNA methylation as well as of DNA methylation (13 sites as putative mediators) on risk of lung cancer. RESULTS: The EWAS for smoking in HUNT2 identified associations at 76 DNA methylation sites (P < 5 × 10-8), including 16 novel sites. Smoking was associated with DNA hypomethylation in a dose-response relationship among 83% of the 76 sites, which was confirmed by analyses using repeated measurements from blood that was collected at 11 years apart for the same individuals. Two-step MR analyses showed evidence for a causal effect of smoking on DNA methylation but no evidence for a causal link between DNA methylation and the risk of lung cancer. CONCLUSIONS: DNA methylation modifications in blood did not seem to represent a causal pathway linking smoking and the lung cancer risk.

Identification of epigenome-wide DNA methylation differences between carriers of APOE ε4 and APOE ε2 alleles.

BACKGROUND: The apolipoprotein E (APOE) ε4 allele is the strongest genetic risk factor for late onset Alzheimer's disease, whilst the ε2 allele confers protection. Previous studies report differential DNA methylation of APOE between ε4 and ε2 carriers, but associations with epigenome-wide methylation have not previously been characterised. METHODS: Using the EPIC array, we investigated epigenome-wide differences in whole blood DNA methylation patterns between Alzheimer's disease-free APOE ε4 (n = 2469) and ε2 (n = 1118) carriers from the two largest single-cohort DNA methylation samples profiled to date. Using a discovery, replication and meta-analysis study design, methylation differences were identified using epigenome-wide association analysis and differentially methylated region (DMR) approaches. Results were explored using pathway and methylation quantitative trait loci (meQTL) analyses. RESULTS: We obtained replicated evidence for DNA methylation differences in a ~ 169 kb region, which encompasses part of APOE and several upstream genes. Meta-analytic approaches identified DNA methylation differences outside of APOE: differentially methylated positions were identified in DHCR24, LDLR and ABCG1 (2.59 × 10-100 ≤ P ≤ 2.44 × 10-8) and DMRs were identified in SREBF2 and LDLR (1.63 × 10-4 ≤ P ≤ 3.01 × 10-2). Pathway and meQTL analyses implicated lipid-related processes and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol was identified as a partial mediator of the methylation differences in ABCG1 and DHCR24. CONCLUSIONS: APOE ε4 vs. ε2 carrier status is associated with epigenome-wide methylation differences in the blood. The loci identified are located in trans as well as cis to APOE and implicate genes involved in lipid homeostasis.

Genetic mechanisms of critical illness in COVID-19.

Host-mediated lung inflammation is present1, and drives mortality2, in the critical illness caused by coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). Host genetic variants associated with critical illness may identify mechanistic targets for therapeutic development3. Here we report the results of the GenOMICC (Genetics Of Mortality In Critical Care) genome-wide association study in 2,244 critically ill patients with COVID-19 from 208 UK intensive care units. We have identified and replicated the following new genome-wide significant associations: on chromosome 12q24.13 (rs10735079, P = 1.65 × 10-8) in a gene cluster that encodes antiviral restriction enzyme activators (OAS1, OAS2 and OAS3); on chromosome 19p13.2 (rs74956615, P = 2.3 × 10-8) near the gene that encodes tyrosine kinase 2 (TYK2); on chromosome 19p13.3 (rs2109069, P = 3.98 ×  10-12) within the gene that encodes dipeptidyl peptidase 9 (DPP9); and on chromosome 21q22.1 (rs2236757, P = 4.99 × 10-8) in the interferon receptor gene IFNAR2. We identified potential targets for repurposing of licensed medications: using Mendelian randomization, we found evidence that low expression of IFNAR2, or high expression of TYK2, are associated with life-threatening disease; and transcriptome-wide association in lung tissue revealed that high expression of the monocyte-macrophage chemotactic receptor CCR2 is associated with severe COVID-19. Our results identify robust genetic signals relating to key host antiviral defence mechanisms and mediators of inflammatory organ damage in COVID-19. Both mechanisms may be amenable to targeted treatment with existing drugs. However, large-scale randomized clinical trials will be essential before any change to clinical practice.

Genomic and drug target evaluation of 90 cardiovascular proteins in 30,931 individuals.

Circulating proteins are vital in human health and disease and are frequently used as biomarkers for clinical decision-making or as targets for pharmacological intervention. Here, we map and replicate protein quantitative trait loci (pQTL) for 90 cardiovascular proteins in over 30,000 individuals, resulting in 451 pQTLs for 85 proteins. For each protein, we further perform pathway mapping to obtain trans-pQTL gene and regulatory designations. We substantiate these regulatory findings with orthogonal evidence for trans-pQTLs using mouse knockdown experiments (ABCA1 and TRIB1) and clinical trial results (chemokine receptors CCR2 and CCR5), with consistent regulation. Finally, we evaluate known drug targets, and suggest new target candidates or repositioning opportunities using Mendelian randomization. This identifies 11 proteins with causal evidence of involvement in human disease that have not previously been targeted, including EGF, IL-16, PAPPA, SPON1, F3, ADM, CASP-8, CHI3L1, CXCL16, GDF15 and MMP-12. Taken together, these findings demonstrate the utility of large-scale mapping of the genetics of the proteome and provide a resource for future precision studies of circulating proteins in human health.

Epigenome-wide analyses identify DNA methylation signatures of dementia risk.

INTRODUCTION: Dementia pathogenesis begins years before clinical symptom onset, necessitating the understanding of premorbid risk mechanisms. Here we investigated potential pathogenic mechanisms by assessing DNA methylation associations with dementia risk factors in Alzheimer's disease (AD)-free participants. METHODS: Associations between dementia risk measures (family history, AD genetic risk score [GRS], and dementia risk scores [combining lifestyle, demographic, and genetic factors]) and whole-blood DNA methylation were assessed in discovery and replication samples (n = ~400 to ~5000) from Generation Scotland. RESULTS: AD genetic risk and two dementia risk scores were associated with differential methylation. The GRS associated predominantly with methylation differences in cis but also identified a genomic region implicated in Parkinson disease. Loci associated with dementia risk scores were enriched for those previously associated with body mass index and alcohol consumption. DISCUSSION: Dementia risk measures show widespread association with blood-based methylation, generating several hypotheses for assessment by future studies.

Identifying epigenetic biomarkers of established prognostic factors and survival in a clinical cohort of individuals with oropharyngeal cancer.

BACKGROUND: Smoking status, alcohol consumption and HPV infection (acquired through sexual activity) are the predominant risk factors for oropharyngeal cancer and are thought to alter the prognosis of the disease. Here, we conducted single-site and differentially methylated region (DMR) epigenome-wide association studies (EWAS) of these factors, in addition to ∼ 3-year survival, using Illumina Methylation EPIC DNA methylation profiles from whole blood in 409 individuals as part of the Head and Neck 5000 (HN5000) study. Overlapping sites between each factor and survival were then assessed using two-step Mendelian randomization to assess whether methylation at these positions causally affected survival. RESULTS: Using the MethylationEPIC array in an OPC dataset, we found novel CpG associations with smoking, alcohol consumption and ~ 3-year survival. We found no CpG associations below our multiple testing threshold associated with HPV16 E6 serological response (used as a proxy for HPV infection). CpG site associations below our multiple-testing threshold (PBonferroni < 0.05) for both a prognostic factor and survival were observed at four gene regions: SPEG (smoking), GFI1 (smoking), PPT2 (smoking) and KHDC3L (alcohol consumption). Evidence for a causal effect of DNA methylation on survival was only observed in the SPEG gene region (HR per SD increase in methylation score 1.28, 95% CI 1.14 to 1.43, P 2.12 × 10-05). CONCLUSIONS: Part of the effect of smoking on survival in those with oropharyngeal cancer may be mediated by methylation at the SPEG gene locus. Replication in data from independent datasets and data from HN5000 with longer follow-up times is needed to confirm these findings.

Correction to: Predictive validity of a novel non-invasive estimation of effective shunt fraction in critically ill patients.

An amendment to this paper has been published and can be accessed via the original article.

Linking protein to phenotype with Mendelian Randomization detects 38 proteins with causal roles in human diseases and traits.

To efficiently transform genetic associations into drug targets requires evidence that a particular gene, and its encoded protein, contribute causally to a disease. To achieve this, we employ a three-step proteome-by-phenome Mendelian Randomization (MR) approach. In step one, 154 protein quantitative trait loci (pQTLs) were identified and independently replicated. From these pQTLs, 64 replicated locally-acting variants were used as instrumental variables for proteome-by-phenome MR across 846 traits (step two). When its assumptions are met, proteome-by-phenome MR, is equivalent to simultaneously running many randomized controlled trials. Step 2 yielded 38 proteins that significantly predicted variation in traits and diseases in 509 instances. Step 3 revealed that amongst the 271 instances from GeneAtlas (UK Biobank), 77 showed little evidence of pleiotropy (HEIDI), and 92 evidence of colocalization (eCAVIAR). Results were wide ranging: including, for example, new evidence for a causal role of tyrosine-protein phosphatase non-receptor type substrate 1 (SHPS1; SIRPA) in schizophrenia, and a new finding that intestinal fatty acid binding protein (FABP2) abundance contributes to the pathogenesis of cardiovascular disease. We also demonstrated confirmatory evidence for the causal role of four further proteins (FGF5, IL6R, LPL, LTA) in cardiovascular disease risk.

Predictive validity of a novel non-invasive estimation of effective shunt fraction in critically ill patients.

BACKGROUND: Accurate measurement of pulmonary oxygenation is important for classification of disease severity and quantification of outcomes in clinical studies. Currently, tension-based methods such as P/F ratio are in widespread use, but are known to be less accurate than content-based methods. However, content-based methods require invasive measurements or sophisticated equipment that are rarely used in clinical practice. We devised two new methods to infer shunt fraction from a single arterial blood gas sample: (1) a non-invasive effective shunt (ES) fraction calculated using a rearrangement of the indirect Fick equation, standard constants, and a procedural inversion of the relationship between content and tension and (2) inferred values from a database of outputs from an integrated mathematical model of gas exchange (DB). We compared the predictive validity-the accuracy of predictions of PaO2 following changes in FIO2-of each measure in a retrospective database of 78,159 arterial blood gas (ABG) results from critically ill patients. RESULTS: In a formal test set comprising 9,635 pairs of ABGs, the median absolute error (MAE) values for the four measures were as follows: alveolar-arterial difference, 7.30 kPa; PaO2/FIO2 ratio, 2.41 kPa; DB, 2.13 kPa; and ES, 1.88 kPa. ES performed significantly better than other measures (p < 10-10 in all comparisons). Further exploration of the DB method demonstrated that obtaining two blood gas measurements at different FIO2 provides a more precise description of pulmonary oxygenation. CONCLUSIONS: Effective shunt can be calculated using a computationally efficient procedure using routinely collected arterial blood gas data and has better predictive validity than other analytic methods. For practical assessment of oxygenation in clinical research, ES should be used in preference to other indices. ES can be calculated at http://baillielab.net/es .

Publisher Correction: Parent of origin genetic effects on methylation in humans are common and influence complex trait variation.

In the original version of this Article, the legend in the upper panel of Figure 2 incorrectly read 'paternal imprinting' and should have read 'maternal imprinting'. This has been corrected in both the PDF and HTML versions of the Article.