Assessment of temporal instability in the applied ecology and conservation evidence base.

Outcomes of meta-analyses are increasingly used to inform evidence-based decision making in various research fields. However, a number of recent studies have reported rapid temporal changes in magnitude and significance of the reported effects which could make policy-relevant recommendations from meta-analyses to quickly go out of date. We assessed the extent and patterns of temporal trends in magnitude and statistical significance of the cumulative effects in meta-analyses in applied ecology and conservation published between 2004 and 2018. Of the 121 meta-analyses analysed, 93% showed a temporal trend in cumulative effect magnitude or significance with 27% of the datasets exhibiting temporal trends in both. The most common trend was the early study effect when at least one of the first 5 years effect size estimates exhibited more than 50% magnitude difference to the subsequent estimate. The observed temporal trends persisted in majority of datasets once moderators were accounted for. Only 5 datasets showed significant changes in sample size over time which could potentially explain the observed temporal change in the cumulative effects. Year of publication of meta-analysis had no significant effect on presence of temporal trends in cumulative effects. Our results show that temporal changes in magnitude and statistical significance in applied ecology are widespread and represent a serious potential threat to use of meta-analyses for decision-making in conservation and environmental management. We recommend use of cumulative meta-analyses and call for more studies exploring the causes of the temporal effects.

Fine mapping of the stem rust resistance gene SrTA10187.

KEY MESSAGE: SrTA10187 was fine-mapped to a 1.1 cM interval, candidate genes were identified in the region of interest, and molecular markers were developed for marker-assisted selection and Sr gene pyramiding. Stem rust (Puccinia graminis f. sp. tritici, Pgt) races belonging to the Ug99 (TTKSK) race group pose a serious threat to global wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) production. To improve Pgt host resistance, the Ug99-effective resistance gene SrTA10187 previously identified in Aegilops tauschii Coss. was introgressed into wheat, and mapped to the short arm of wheat chromosome 6D. In this study, high-resolution mapping of SrTA10187 was done using a population of 1,060 plants. Pgt resistance was screened using race QFCSC. PCR-based SNP and STS markers were developed from genotyping-by-sequencing tags and SNP sequences available in online databases. SrTA10187 segregated as expected in a 3:1 ratio of resistant to susceptible individuals in three out of six BC3F2 families, and was fine-mapped to a 1.1 cM region on wheat chromosome 6DS. Marker context sequence was aligned to the reference Ae. tauschii genome to identify the physical region encompassing SrTA10187. Due to the size of the corresponding region, candidate disease resistance genes could not be identified with confidence. Comparisons with the Ae. tauschii genetic map developed by Luo et al. (PNAS 110(19):7940-7945, 2013) enabled identification of a discrete genetic locus and a BAC minimum tiling path of the region spanning SrTA10187. Annotation of pooled BAC library sequences led to the identification of candidate genes in the region of interest-including a single NB-ARC-LRR gene. The shorter genetic interval and flanking KASP™ and STS markers developed in this study will facilitate marker-assisted selection, gene pyramiding, and positional cloning of SrTA10187.