TAPAS: An Open-Source Software Package for Translational Neuromodeling and Computational Psychiatry.

Psychiatry faces fundamental challenges with regard to mechanistically guided differential diagnosis, as well as prediction of clinical trajectories and treatment response of individual patients. This has motivated the genesis of two closely intertwined fields: (i) Translational Neuromodeling (TN), which develops "computational assays" for inferring patient-specific disease processes from neuroimaging, electrophysiological, and behavioral data; and (ii) Computational Psychiatry (CP), with the goal of incorporating computational assays into clinical decision making in everyday practice. In order to serve as objective and reliable tools for clinical routine, computational assays require end-to-end pipelines from raw data (input) to clinically useful information (output). While these are yet to be established in clinical practice, individual components of this general end-to-end pipeline are being developed and made openly available for community use. In this paper, we present the Translational Algorithms for Psychiatry-Advancing Science (TAPAS) software package, an open-source collection of building blocks for computational assays in psychiatry. Collectively, the tools in TAPAS presently cover several important aspects of the desired end-to-end pipeline, including: (i) tailored experimental designs and optimization of measurement strategy prior to data acquisition, (ii) quality control during data acquisition, and (iii) artifact correction, statistical inference, and clinical application after data acquisition. Here, we review the different tools within TAPAS and illustrate how these may help provide a deeper understanding of neural and cognitive mechanisms of disease, with the ultimate goal of establishing automatized pipelines for predictions about individual patients. We hope that the openly available tools in TAPAS will contribute to the further development of TN/CP and facilitate the translation of advances in computational neuroscience into clinically relevant computational assays.

Atypical processing of uncertainty in individuals at risk for psychosis.

Current theories of psychosis highlight the role of abnormal learning signals, i.e., prediction errors (PEs) and uncertainty, in the formation of delusional beliefs. We employed computational analyses of behaviour and functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) to examine whether such abnormalities are evident in clinical high risk (CHR) individuals. Non-medicated CHR individuals (n = 13) and control participants (n = 13) performed a probabilistic learning paradigm during fMRI data acquisition. We used a hierarchical Bayesian model to infer subject-specific computations from behaviour - with a focus on PEs and uncertainty (or its inverse, precision) at different levels, including environmental 'volatility' - and used these computational quantities for analyses of fMRI data. Computational modelling of CHR individuals' behaviour indicated volatility estimates converged to significantly higher levels than in controls. Model-based fMRI demonstrated increased activity in prefrontal and insular regions of CHR individuals in response to precision-weighted low-level outcome PEs, while activations of prefrontal, orbitofrontal and anterior insula cortex by higher-level PEs (that serve to update volatility estimates) were reduced. Additionally, prefrontal cortical activity in response to outcome PEs in CHR was negatively associated with clinical measures of global functioning. Our results suggest a multi-faceted learning abnormality in CHR individuals under conditions of environmental uncertainty, comprising higher levels of volatility estimates combined with reduced cortical activation, and abnormally high activations in prefrontal and insular areas by precision-weighted outcome PEs. This atypical representation of high- and low-level learning signals might reflect a predisposition to delusion formation.

Reward-Guided Learning with and without Causal Attribution.

When an organism receives a reward, it is crucial to know which of many candidate actions caused this reward. However, recent work suggests that learning is possible even when this most fundamental assumption is not met. We used novel reward-guided learning paradigms in two fMRI studies to show that humans deploy separable learning mechanisms that operate in parallel. While behavior was dominated by precise contingent learning, it also revealed hallmarks of noncontingent learning strategies. These learning mechanisms were separable behaviorally and neurally. Lateral orbitofrontal cortex supported contingent learning and reflected contingencies between outcomes and their causal choices. Amygdala responses around reward times related to statistical patterns of learning. Time-based heuristic mechanisms were related to activity in sensorimotor corticostriatal circuitry. Our data point to the existence of several learning mechanisms in the human brain, of which only one relies on applying known rules about the causal structure of the task.

Inversion of hierarchical Bayesian models using Gaussian processes.

Over the past decade, computational approaches to neuroimaging have increasingly made use of hierarchical Bayesian models (HBMs), either for inferring on physiological mechanisms underlying fMRI data (e.g., dynamic causal modelling, DCM) or for deriving computational trajectories (from behavioural data) which serve as regressors in general linear models. However, an unresolved problem is that standard methods for inverting the hierarchical Bayesian model are either very slow, e.g. Markov Chain Monte Carlo Methods (MCMC), or are vulnerable to local minima in non-convex optimisation problems, such as variational Bayes (VB). This article considers Gaussian process optimisation (GPO) as an alternative approach for global optimisation of sufficiently smooth and efficiently evaluable objective functions. GPO avoids being trapped in local extrema and can be computationally much more efficient than MCMC. Here, we examine the benefits of GPO for inverting HBMs commonly used in neuroimaging, including DCM for fMRI and the Hierarchical Gaussian Filter (HGF). Importantly, to achieve computational efficiency despite high-dimensional optimisation problems, we introduce a novel combination of GPO and local gradient-based search methods. The utility of this GPO implementation for DCM and HGF is evaluated against MCMC and VB, using both synthetic data from simulations and empirical data. Our results demonstrate that GPO provides parameter estimates with equivalent or better accuracy than the other techniques, but at a fraction of the computational cost required for MCMC. We anticipate that GPO will prove useful for robust and efficient inversion of high-dimensional and nonlinear models of neuroimaging data.

Uncertainty in perception and the Hierarchical Gaussian Filter.

In its full sense, perception rests on an agent's model of how its sensory input comes about and the inferences it draws based on this model. These inferences are necessarily uncertain. Here, we illustrate how the Hierarchical Gaussian Filter (HGF) offers a principled and generic way to deal with the several forms that uncertainty in perception takes. The HGF is a recent derivation of one-step update equations from Bayesian principles that rests on a hierarchical generative model of the environment and its (in)stability. It is computationally highly efficient, allows for online estimates of hidden states, and has found numerous applications to experimental data from human subjects. In this paper, we generalize previous descriptions of the HGF and its account of perceptual uncertainty. First, we explicitly formulate the extension of the HGF's hierarchy to any number of levels; second, we discuss how various forms of uncertainty are accommodated by the minimization of variational free energy as encoded in the update equations; third, we combine the HGF with decision models and demonstrate the inversion of this combination; finally, we report a simulation study that compared four optimization methods for inverting the HGF/decision model combination at different noise levels. These four methods (Nelder-Mead simplex algorithm, Gaussian process-based global optimization, variational Bayes and Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling) all performed well even under considerable noise, with variational Bayes offering the best combination of efficiency and informativeness of inference. Our results demonstrate that the HGF provides a principled, flexible, and efficient-but at the same time intuitive-framework for the resolution of perceptual uncertainty in behaving agents.

Laminar activity in the hippocampus and entorhinal cortex related to novelty and episodic encoding.

The ability to form long-term memories for novel events depends on information processing within the hippocampus (HC) and entorhinal cortex (EC). The HC-EC circuitry shows a quantitative segregation of anatomical directionality into different neuronal layers. Whereas superficial EC layers mainly project to dentate gyrus (DG), CA3 and apical CA1 layers, HC output is primarily sent from pyramidal CA1 layers and subiculum to deep EC layers. Here we utilize this directionality information by measuring encoding activity within HC/EC subregions with 7 T high resolution functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI). Multivariate Bayes decoding within HC/EC subregions shows that processing of novel information most strongly engages the input structures (superficial EC and DG/CA2-3), whereas subsequent memory is more dependent on activation of output regions (deep EC and pyramidal CA1). This suggests that while novelty processing is strongly related to HC-EC input pathways, the memory fate of a novel stimulus depends more on HC-EC output.

Dissecting psychiatric spectrum disorders by generative embedding.

This proof-of-concept study examines the feasibility of defining subgroups in psychiatric spectrum disorders by generative embedding, using dynamical system models which infer neuronal circuit mechanisms from neuroimaging data. To this end, we re-analysed an fMRI dataset of 41 patients diagnosed with schizophrenia and 42 healthy controls performing a numerical n-back working-memory task. In our generative-embedding approach, we used parameter estimates from a dynamic causal model (DCM) of a visual-parietal-prefrontal network to define a model-based feature space for the subsequent application of supervised and unsupervised learning techniques. First, using a linear support vector machine for classification, we were able to predict individual diagnostic labels significantly more accurately (78%) from DCM-based effective connectivity estimates than from functional connectivity between (62%) or local activity within the same regions (55%). Second, an unsupervised approach based on variational Bayesian Gaussian mixture modelling provided evidence for two clusters which mapped onto patients and controls with nearly the same accuracy (71%) as the supervised approach. Finally, when restricting the analysis only to the patients, Gaussian mixture modelling suggested the existence of three patient subgroups, each of which was characterised by a different architecture of the visual-parietal-prefrontal working-memory network. Critically, even though this analysis did not have access to information about the patients' clinical symptoms, the three neurophysiologically defined subgroups mapped onto three clinically distinct subgroups, distinguished by significant differences in negative symptom severity, as assessed on the Positive and Negative Syndrome Scale (PANSS). In summary, this study provides a concrete example of how psychiatric spectrum diseases may be split into subgroups that are defined in terms of neurophysiological mechanisms specified by a generative model of network dynamics such as DCM. The results corroborate our previous findings in stroke patients that generative embedding, compared to analyses of more conventional measures such as functional connectivity or regional activity, can significantly enhance both the interpretability and performance of computational approaches to clinical classification.

Hierarchical prediction errors in midbrain and basal forebrain during sensory learning.

In Bayesian brain theories, hierarchically related prediction errors (PEs) play a central role for predicting sensory inputs and inferring their underlying causes, e.g., the probabilistic structure of the environment and its volatility. Notably, PEs at different hierarchical levels may be encoded by different neuromodulatory transmitters. Here, we tested this possibility in computational fMRI studies of audio-visual learning. Using a hierarchical Bayesian model, we found that low-level PEs about visual stimulus outcome were reflected by widespread activity in visual and supramodal areas but also in the midbrain. In contrast, high-level PEs about stimulus probabilities were encoded by the basal forebrain. These findings were replicated in two groups of healthy volunteers. While our fMRI measures do not reveal the exact neuron types activated in midbrain and basal forebrain, they suggest a dichotomy between neuromodulatory systems, linking dopamine to low-level PEs about stimulus outcome and acetylcholine to more abstract PEs about stimulus probabilities.

Variational Bayesian mixed-effects inference for classification studies.

Multivariate classification algorithms are powerful tools for predicting cognitive or pathophysiological states from neuroimaging data. Assessing the utility of a classifier in application domains such as cognitive neuroscience, brain-computer interfaces, or clinical diagnostics necessitates inference on classification performance at more than one level, i.e., both in individual subjects and in the population from which these subjects were sampled. Such inference requires models that explicitly account for both fixed-effects (within-subjects) and random-effects (between-subjects) variance components. While models of this sort are standard in mass-univariate analyses of fMRI data, they have not yet received much attention in multivariate classification studies of neuroimaging data, presumably because of the high computational costs they entail. This paper extends a recently developed hierarchical model for mixed-effects inference in multivariate classification studies and introduces an efficient variational Bayes approach to inference. Using both synthetic and empirical fMRI data, we show that this approach is equally simple to use as, yet more powerful than, a conventional t-test on subject-specific sample accuracies, and computationally much more efficient than previous sampling algorithms and permutation tests. Our approach is independent of the type of underlying classifier and thus widely applicable. The present framework may help establish mixed-effects inference as a future standard for classification group analyses.

Decoding gender dimorphism of the human brain using multimodal anatomical and diffusion MRI data.

The female brain contains a larger proportion of gray matter tissue, while the male brain comprises more white matter. Findings like these have sparked increasing interest in studying dimorphism of the human brain: the general effect of gender on aspects of brain architecture. To date, the vast majority of imaging studies is based on unimodal MR images and typically limited to a small set of either gray or white matter regions-of-interest. The morphological content of magnetic resonance (MR) images, however, strongly depends on the underlying contrast mechanism. Consequently, in order to fully capture gender-specific morphological differences in distinct brain tissues, it might prove crucial to consider multiple imaging modalities simultaneously. This study introduces a novel approach to perform such multimodal classification incorporating the relative strengths of each modality-specific physical aperture to tissue properties. To illustrate our approach, we analyzed multimodal MR images (T(1)-, T(2)-, and diffusion-weighted) from 121 subjects (67 females) using a linear support vector machine with a mass-univariate feature selection procedure. We demonstrate that the combination of different imaging modalities yields a significantly higher balanced classification accuracy (96%) than any one modality by itself (83%-88%). Our results do not only confirm previous morphometric findings; crucially, they also shed new light on the most discriminative features in gray-matter volume and microstructure in cortical and subcortical areas. Specifically, we find that gender disparities are primarily distributed along brain networks thought to be involved in social cognition, reward-based learning, decision-making, and visual-spatial skills.

Disentangling spatial perception and spatial memory in the hippocampus: a univariate and multivariate pattern analysis fMRI study.

Although the role of the hippocampus in spatial cognition is well accepted, it is unclear whether its involvement is restricted to the mnemonic domain or also extends to perception. We used fMRI to scan neurologically healthy participants during a scene oddity judgment task that placed no explicit demand on long-term memory. Crucially, a surprise recognition test was administered after scanning so that each trial could be categorized not only according to oddity accuracy but also according to subsequent memory. Univariate analyses showed significant hippocampal activity in association with correct oddity judgment, whereas greater parahippocampal place area (PPA) activity was observed during incorrect oddity trials, both irrespective of subsequent recognition performance. Consistent with this, multivariate pattern analyses revealed that a linear support vector machine was able to distinguish correct from incorrect oddity trials on the basis of activity in voxels within the hippocampus or PPA. Although no significant regions of activity were identified by univariate analyses in association with memory performance, a classifier was able to predict subsequent memory using voxels in either the hippocampus or PPA. Our findings are consistent with the idea that the hippocampus is important for processes beyond long-term declarative memory and that this structure may also play a role in complex spatial perception.

Decoding the perception of pain from fMRI using multivariate pattern analysis.

Pain is known to comprise sensory, cognitive, and affective aspects. Despite numerous previous fMRI studies, however, it remains open which spatial distribution of activity is sufficient to encode whether a stimulus is perceived as painful or not. In this study, we analyzed fMRI data from a perceptual decision-making task in which participants were exposed to near-threshold laser pulses. Using multivariate analyses on different spatial scales, we investigated the predictive capacity of fMRI data for decoding whether a stimulus had been perceived as painful. Our analysis yielded a rank order of brain regions: during pain anticipation, activity in the periaqueductal gray (PAG) and orbitofrontal cortex (OFC) afforded the most accurate trial-by-trial discrimination between painful and non-painful experiences; whereas during the actual stimulation, primary and secondary somatosensory cortex, anterior insula, dorsolateral and ventrolateral prefrontal cortex, and OFC were most discriminative. The most accurate prediction of pain perception from the stimulation period, however, was enabled by the combined activity in pain regions commonly referred to as the 'pain matrix'. Our results demonstrate that the neural representation of (near-threshold) pain is spatially distributed and can be best described at an intermediate spatial scale. In addition to its utility in establishing structure-function mappings, our approach affords trial-by-trial predictions and thus represents a step towards the goal of establishing an objective neuronal marker of pain perception.

Generative embedding for model-based classification of fMRI data.

Decoding models, such as those underlying multivariate classification algorithms, have been increasingly used to infer cognitive or clinical brain states from measures of brain activity obtained by functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI). The practicality of current classifiers, however, is restricted by two major challenges. First, due to the high data dimensionality and low sample size, algorithms struggle to separate informative from uninformative features, resulting in poor generalization performance. Second, popular discriminative methods such as support vector machines (SVMs) rarely afford mechanistic interpretability. In this paper, we address these issues by proposing a novel generative-embedding approach that incorporates neurobiologically interpretable generative models into discriminative classifiers. Our approach extends previous work on trial-by-trial classification for electrophysiological recordings to subject-by-subject classification for fMRI and offers two key advantages over conventional methods: it may provide more accurate predictions by exploiting discriminative information encoded in 'hidden' physiological quantities such as synaptic connection strengths; and it affords mechanistic interpretability of clinical classifications. Here, we introduce generative embedding for fMRI using a combination of dynamic causal models (DCMs) and SVMs. We propose a general procedure of DCM-based generative embedding for subject-wise classification, provide a concrete implementation, and suggest good-practice guidelines for unbiased application of generative embedding in the context of fMRI. We illustrate the utility of our approach by a clinical example in which we classify moderately aphasic patients and healthy controls using a DCM of thalamo-temporal regions during speech processing. Generative embedding achieves a near-perfect balanced classification accuracy of 98% and significantly outperforms conventional activation-based and correlation-based methods. This example demonstrates how disease states can be detected with very high accuracy and, at the same time, be interpreted mechanistically in terms of abnormalities in connectivity. We envisage that future applications of generative embedding may provide crucial advances in dissecting spectrum disorders into physiologically more well-defined subgroups.

Model-based feature construction for multivariate decoding.

Conventional decoding methods in neuroscience aim to predict discrete brain states from multivariate correlates of neural activity. This approach faces two important challenges. First, a small number of examples are typically represented by a much larger number of features, making it hard to select the few informative features that allow for accurate predictions. Second, accuracy estimates and information maps often remain descriptive and can be hard to interpret. In this paper, we propose a model-based decoding approach that addresses both challenges from a new angle. Our method involves (i) inverting a dynamic causal model of neurophysiological data in a trial-by-trial fashion; (ii) training and testing a discriminative classifier on a strongly reduced feature space derived from trial-wise estimates of the model parameters; and (iii) reconstructing the separating hyperplane. Since the approach is model-based, it provides a principled dimensionality reduction of the feature space; in addition, if the model is neurobiologically plausible, decoding results may offer a mechanistically meaningful interpretation. The proposed method can be used in conjunction with a variety of modelling approaches and brain data, and supports decoding of either trial or subject labels. Moreover, it can supplement evidence-based approaches for model-based decoding and enable structural model selection in cases where Bayesian model selection cannot be applied. Here, we illustrate its application using dynamic causal modelling (DCM) of electrophysiological recordings in rodents. We demonstrate that the approach achieves significant above-chance performance and, at the same time, allows for a neurobiological interpretation of the results.

Anterior insula integrates information about salience into perceptual decisions about pain.

The decision as to whether a sensation is perceived as painful does not only depend on sensory input but also on the significance of the stimulus. Here, we show that the degree to which an impending stimulus is interpreted as threatening biases perceptual decisions about pain and that this bias toward pain manifests before stimulus encounter. Using functional magnetic resonance imaging we investigated the neural mechanisms underlying the influence of an experimental manipulation of threat on the perception of laser stimuli as painful. In a near-threshold pain detection paradigm, physically identical stimuli were applied under the participants' assumption that the stimulation is entirely safe (low threat) or potentially harmful (high threat). As hypothesized, significantly more stimuli were rated as painful in the high threat condition. This context-dependent classification of a stimulus as painful was predicted by the prestimulus signal level in the anterior insula, suggesting that this structure integrates information about the significance of a stimulus into the decision about pain. The anticipation of pain increased the prestimulus functional connectivity between the anterior insula and the midcingulate cortex (MCC), a region that was significantly more active during stimulation the more a participant was biased to rate the stimulation as painful under high threat. These findings provide evidence that the anterior insula and MCC as a "salience network" integrate information about the significance of an impending stimulation into perceptual decision-making in the context of pain.

Integrated Bayesian models of learning and decision making for saccadic eye movements.

The neurophysiology of eye movements has been studied extensively, and several computational models have been proposed for decision-making processes that underlie the generation of eye movements towards a visual stimulus in a situation of uncertainty. One class of models, known as linear rise-to-threshold models, provides an economical, yet broadly applicable, explanation for the observed variability in the latency between the onset of a peripheral visual target and the saccade towards it. So far, however, these models do not account for the dynamics of learning across a sequence of stimuli, and they do not apply to situations in which subjects are exposed to events with conditional probabilities. In this methodological paper, we extend the class of linear rise-to-threshold models to address these limitations. Specifically, we reformulate previous models in terms of a generative, hierarchical model, by combining two separate sub-models that account for the interplay between learning of target locations across trials and the decision-making process within trials. We derive a maximum-likelihood scheme for parameter estimation as well as model comparison on the basis of log likelihood ratios. The utility of the integrated model is demonstrated by applying it to empirical saccade data acquired from three healthy subjects. Model comparison is used (i) to show that eye movements do not only reflect marginal but also conditional probabilities of target locations, and (ii) to reveal subject-specific learning profiles over trials. These individual learning profiles are sufficiently distinct that test samples can be successfully mapped onto the correct subject by a naïve Bayes classifier. Altogether, our approach extends the class of linear rise-to-threshold models of saccadic decision making, overcomes some of their previous limitations, and enables statistical inference both about learning of target locations across trials and the decision-making process within trials.