Assessing the properties of patient-specific treatment effect estimates from causal forest algorithms under essential heterogeneity.

BACKGROUND: Treatment variation from observational data has been used to estimate patient-specific treatment effects. Causal Forest Algorithms (CFAs) developed for this task have unknown properties when treatment effect heterogeneity from unmeasured patient factors influences treatment choice - essential heterogeneity. METHODS: We simulated eleven populations with identical treatment effect distributions based on patient factors. The populations varied in the extent that treatment effect heterogeneity influenced treatment choice. We used the generalized random forest application (CFA-GRF) to estimate patient-specific treatment effects for each population. Average differences between true and estimated effects for patient subsets were evaluated. RESULTS: CFA-GRF performed well across the population when treatment effect heterogeneity did not influence treatment choice. Under essential heterogeneity, however, CFA-GRF yielded treatment effect estimates that reflected true treatment effects only for treated patients and were on average greater than true treatment effects for untreated patients. CONCLUSIONS: Patient-specific estimates produced by CFAs are sensitive to why patients in real-world practice make different treatment choices. Researchers using CFAs should develop conceptual frameworks of treatment choice prior to estimation to guide estimate interpretation ex post.

ICD-10 diagnosis codes in electronic health records do not adequately capture fracture complexity for proximal humerus fractures.

BACKGROUND: The ability to do comparative effectiveness research (CER) for proximal humerus fractures (PHF) using data in electronic health record (EHR) systems and administrative claims databases was enhanced by the 10th revision of the International Classification of Diseases (ICD-10), which expanded the diagnosis codes for PHF to describe fracture complexity including displacement and the number of fracture parts. However, these expanded codes only enhance secondary use of data for research if the codes selected and recorded correctly reflect the fracture complexity. The objective of this project was to assess the accuracy of ICD-10 diagnosis codes documented during routine clinical practice for secondary use of EHR data. METHODS: A sample of patients with PHFs treated by orthopedic providers across a large, regional health care system between January 1, 2016, and December 31, 2018, were retrospectively identified from the EHR. Four fellowship-trained orthopedic surgeons reviewed patient radiographs and recorded the Neer Classification characteristics of displacement, number of parts, and fracture location(s). The fracture characteristics were then reviewed by a trained coder, and the most clinically appropriate ICD-10 diagnosis code based on the number of fracture parts was assigned. We assessed congruence between ICD-10 codes documented in the EHR and radiograph-validated codes, and assessed sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV), and negative predictive value (NPV) for EHR-documented ICD-10 codes. RESULTS: There were 761 patients with unilateral, closed PHF who met study inclusion criteria. On average, patients were 67 years of age and 77% were female. Based on radiograph review, 37% were 1-part fractures, 42% were 2-part, 11% were 3-part, and 10% were 4-part fractures. Of the EHR diagnosis codes recorded during clinical practice, 59% were "unspecified" fracture diagnosis codes that did not identify the number of fracture parts. Examination of fracture codes revealed PPV was highest for 1-part (PPV = 0.66, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.60-0.72) and 4-part fractures (PPV = 0.67, 95% CI 0.13-1.00). CONCLUSIONS: Current diagnosis coding practices do not adequately capture the fracture complexity needed to conduct subgroup analysis for PHF. Conclusions drawn from population studies or large databases using ICD-10 codes for PHF classification should be interpreted within this limitation. Future studies are warranted to improve diagnostic coding to support large observational studies using EHR and administrative claims data.

Patient preferences as human factors for health data recommender systems and shared decision making in orthopaedic practice.

Background: A core set of requirements for designing AI-based Health Recommender Systems (HRS) is a thorough understanding of human factors in a decision-making process. Patient preferences regarding treatment outcomes can be one important human factor. For orthopaedic medicine, limited communication may occur between a patient and a provider during the short duration of a clinical visit, limiting the opportunity for the patient to express treatment outcome preferences (TOP). This may occur despite patient preferences having a significant impact on achieving patient satisfaction, shared decision making and treatment success. Inclusion of patient preferences during patient intake and/or during the early phases of patient contact and information gathering can lead to better treatment recommendations. Aim: We aim to explore patient treatment outcome preferences as significant human factors in treatment decision making in orthopedics. The goal of this research is to design, build, and test an app that collects baseline TOPs across orthopaedic outcomes and reports this information to providers during a clinical visit. This data may also be used to inform the design of HRSs for orthopaedic treatment decision making. Methods: We created a mobile app to collect TOPs using a direct weighting (DW) technique. We used a mixed methods approach to pilot test the app with 23 first-time orthopaedic visit patients presenting with joint pain and/or function deficiency by presenting the app for utilization and conducting qualitative interviews and quantitative surveys post utilization. Results: The study validated five core TOP domains, with most users dividing their 100-point DW allocation across 1-3 domains. The tool received moderate to high usability scores. Thematic analysis of patient interviews provides insights into TOPs that are important to patients, how they can be communicated effectively, and incorporated into a clinical visit with meaningful patient-provider communication that leads to shared decision making. Conclusion: Patient TOPs may be important human factors to consider in determining treatment options that may be helpful for automating patient treatment recommendations. We conclude that inclusion of patient TOPs to inform the design of HRSs results in creating more robust patient treatment profiles in the EHR thus enhancing opportunities for treatment recommendations and future AI applications.

Unanticipated costs associated with interscalene nerve catheters for shoulder surgery.

BACKGROUND: Regional anesthesia has become a mainstay of analgesia following shoulder arthroscopic and reconstructive procedures. Local anesthetic can be injected in the perineural space of the brachial plexus by a single shot or continuously by an indwelling catheter. Although previous studies have compared efficacy and direct cost of single shot to catheters, few have evaluated unanticipated costs of ongoing care or complications. Pulmonary complications can lead to unexpected admissions and emergency department visits. The purpose of the study was to identify unplanned hospital admissions or emergency department visits related to regional anesthesia after shoulder surgery and determine the additional associated costs. METHODS: A series of 1888 shoulder surgeries were identified in 1856 unique patients at a single, large academic center. As part of an interscalene nerve catheter program, a continuous interscalene block (CIB) was given to 1728 patients, whereas 160 patients had a single-shot interscalene block (SSIB). A hospital-employed quality control nurse contacted all patients receiving a CIB at 1, 2, 7, and 14 days following surgery. All emergency department visits and readmissions were recorded, and the associated billing charges were reviewed for the inpatient and any outpatient visits immediately preceding or immediately following the readmission. The regional average Medicare fee schedule was used to determine a cost for these episodes of care. RESULTS: Of the 1728 patients who had CIB, 10 patients were readmitted following open or arthroscopic surgery or presented to the emergency department in the immediate postoperative period for pulmonary compromise. No patient in the SSIB group had an emergency department visit or readmission. The average age of the 10 patients with readmission was 60 years (7 females, 3 males). The majority were diagnosed with hypoxemia on admission (R09.02). Length of stay during readmission ranged from 0 to 4 days, with 1 patient requiring admission to the intensive care unit. The average cost of admission to the hospital or visit to the emergency department was $6849 (range, $1988-$19,483). These costs were primarily related to chest radiographs and electrocardiogram (9/10), chest computed tomography (CT) with contrast (3/10), and head CT (2/10). CONCLUSION: Although uncommon, unanticipated pulmonary complications after CIB can result in significant cost compared to SSIB. The indirect costs of pulmonary workup after readmission or emergency department workup may be overlooked if only considering direct costs, such as medication charges, medical supplies, and physician fees.

Uses of Health Care System Medical Care Services by Athletes After Injury at the High School Level.

BACKGROUND: Health care utilization can vary by age group, geographic location, and socioeconomic status (SES). A paucity of information exists regarding the availability and utilization of medical care by injured scholastic athletes. The purpose of this study was to describe and compare injuries and health care service utilization by school SES over an academic year. METHODS: Injury and health care service data was collected from 1 large school district. Percentage of free and reduced lunch (FRPL) for each school was calculated to stratify schools into high (<50% FRPL) and low (≥50.1% FRPL) SES groups. Incidence proportion and relative risk (RR) with 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) were calculated. RESULTS: About 1756 injuries were reported among over 7000 participating athletes from 14 high schools. Similar injury incidence proportions were reported between high and low SES schools (RR = 1.10 [1.00-1.20]). Athletes from low SES schools were twice (RR = 2.01 [1.21-3.35]) and over three (RR = 3.42 [1.84-6.55]) times more likely to receive emergency and physical therapy care. SES was not associated with the use of physician, imaging, or surgery services. IMPLICATIONS FOR SCHOOL HEALTH, POLICY, AND EQUITY: School medical providers and administrators should have ready and provide a list of trusted outside primary care and specialty providers that have experience in sports medicine. They should also enquire and follow up on which outside provider the high school athlete will seek care when referring out to outside providers. CONCLUSIONS: Injury incidence was similar between high and low SES schools. However, athletes from low SES high schools were over 2-fold more likely to use emergency department services. Understanding factors influencing health care services choice and usage by student athletes from different socioeconomic backgrounds may assist sport medicine clinicians in identifying barriers and potential solutions in improving time to health restoration, athlete outcomes, and health care monetary burden.

Generating Practice-Based Evidence in the Use of Guideline-Recommended Combination Therapy for Secondary Prevention of Acute Myocardial Infarction.

Background: Clinical guidelines recommend beta-blockers, angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors/angiotensin-receptor blockers, and statins for the secondary prevention of acute myocardial infarction (AMI). It is not clear whether variation in real-world practice reflects poor quality-of-care or a balance of outcome tradeoffs across patients. Methods: The study cohort included Medicare fee-for-service beneficiaries hospitalized 2007-2008 for AMI. Treatment within 30-days post-discharge was grouped into one of eight possible combinations for the three drug classes. Outcomes included one-year overall survival, one-year cardiovascular-event-free survival, and 90-day adverse events. Treatment effects were estimated using an Instrumental Variables (IV) approach with instruments based on measures of local-area practice style. Pre-specified data elements were abstracted from hospital medical records for a stratified, random sample to create "unmeasured confounders" (per claims data) and assess model assumptions. Results: Each drug combination was observed in the final sample (N = 124,695), with 35.7% having all three, and 13.5% having none. Higher rates of guideline-recommended treatment were associated with both better survival and more adverse events. Unmeasured confounders were not associated with instrumental variable values. Conclusions: The results from this study suggest that providers consider both treatment benefits and harms in patients with AMIs. The investigation of estimator assumptions support the validity of the estimates.

Assessing the ability of an instrumental variable causal forest algorithm to personalize treatment evidence using observational data: the case of early surgery for shoulder fracture.

BACKGROUND: Comparative effectiveness research (CER) using observational databases has been suggested to obtain personalized evidence of treatment effectiveness. Inferential difficulties remain using traditional CER approaches especially related to designating patients to reference classes a priori. A novel Instrumental Variable Causal Forest Algorithm (IV-CFA) has the potential to provide personalized evidence using observational data without designating reference classes a priori, but the consistency of the evidence when varying key algorithm parameters remains unclear. We investigated the consistency of IV-CFA estimates through application to a database of Medicare beneficiaries with proximal humerus fractures (PHFs) that previously revealed heterogeneity in the effects of early surgery using instrumental variable estimators. METHODS: IV-CFA was used to estimate patient-specific early surgery effects on both beneficial and detrimental outcomes using different combinations of algorithm parameters and estimate variation was assessed for a population of 72,751 fee-for-service Medicare beneficiaries with PHFs in 2011. Classification and regression trees (CART) were applied to these estimates to create ex-post reference classes and the consistency of these classes were assessed. Two-stage least squares (2SLS) estimators were applied to representative ex-post reference classes to scrutinize the estimates relative to known 2SLS properties. RESULTS: IV-CFA uncovered substantial early surgery effect heterogeneity across PHF patients, but estimates for individual patients varied with algorithm parameters. CART applied to these estimates revealed ex-post reference classes consistent across algorithm parameters. 2SLS estimates showed that ex-post reference classes containing older, frailer patients with more comorbidities, and lower utilizers of healthcare were less likely to benefit and more likely to have detriments from higher rates of early surgery. CONCLUSIONS: IV-CFA provides an illuminating method to uncover ex-post reference classes of patients based on treatment effects using observational data with a strong instrumental variable. Interpretation of treatment effect estimates within each ex-post reference class using traditional CER methods remains conditional on the extent of measured information in the data.

Factors related to initial treatment for adhesive capsulitis in the medicare population.

BACKGROUND: Primary adhesive capsulitis (AC) is not well understood, and controversy remains about the most effective treatment approaches. Even less is known about the treatment of AC in the Medicare population. We aimed to fully characterize initial treatment for AC in terms of initial treatment utilization, timing of initial treatments and treatment combinations. METHODS: Using United States Medicare claims from 2010-2012, we explored treatment utilization and patient characteristics associated with initial treatment for primary AC among 7,181 Medicare beneficiaries. Patients with primary AC were identified as patients seeking care for a new shoulder complaint in 2011, with the first visit related to shoulder referred to as the index date, an x-ray or MRI of the shoulder region, and two separate diagnoses of AC (ICD-9-CM codes: 726.00). The treatment period was defined as the 90 days immediately following the index shoulder visit. A multivariable logistic model was used to assess baseline patient factors associated with receiving surgery within the treatment period. RESULTS: Ninety percent of beneficiaries with primary AC received treatment within 90 days of their index shoulder visit. Physical therapy (PT) alone (41%) and injection combined with PT (34%) were the most common treatment approaches. Similar patient profiles emerged across treatment groups, with higher proportions of racial minorities, socioeconomically disadvantaged and more frail patients favoring injections or watchful waiting. Black beneficiaries (OR = 0.37, [0.16, 0.86]) and those residing in the northeast (OR = 0.36, [0.18, 0.69]) had significantly lower odds of receiving surgery in the treatment period. Conversely, younger beneficiaries aged 66-69 years (OR = 6.75, [2.12, 21.52]) and 70-75 years (OR = 5.37, [1.67, 17.17]) and beneficiaries with type 2 diabetes had significantly higher odds of receiving surgery (OR = 1.41, [1.03, 1.92]). CONCLUSIONS: Factors such as patient baseline health and socioeconomic characteristics appear to be important for physicians and Medicare beneficiaries making treatment decisions for primary AC.

Frequency and factors associated with foregone and delayed medical care due to COVID-19 among nonelderly US adults from August to December 2020.

OBJECTIVES: To estimate the frequency and factors associated with foregone and delayed medical care attributed to the COVID-19 pandemic among nonelderly adults from August to December 2020 in the United States. METHODS: We used three survey waves from the Urban Institute's Household Pulse Survey (HPS) collected between August 19-31, October 14-26 and December 9-21. The final sample included 155,825 nonelderly (18-64) respondents representing 135,835,598 million individuals in the United States. We used two multivariable logistic regressions to estimate the association between respondents' characteristics and foregone and delayed care. RESULTS: The frequency of foregone and delayed medical care was 26.9% and 35.9%, respectively. Around 60% of respondents reported difficulties in paying for usual household expenses in the last 7 days. More than half reported several days of mental health issues. The regression results indicated that foregone or delayed care were significantly associated with difficulties in paying usual household expenses (p < 0.001), worse self-reported health status (p < 0.001), increased mental health problems (p < 0.001), Veterans Affairs (p <0.001) or Medicaid (p = 0.003) coverage compared to private healthcare coverage, and older age groups. Individuals who participated in the latter two waves of the survey (October, December) were less likely to report foregone and delayed care compared to those who participated in Wave 1 (August). CONCLUSION: Overall, the frequency of foregone and delayed medical care remained high from August to December 2020 among nonelderly US adults. Our findings highlight that pandemic-induced access barriers are major drivers of reduced healthcare provision during the second half of the pandemic and highlight the need for policies to support patients in seeking timely care.

Assessing the Patient-Perceived Monetary Value of Patient-Reported Outcome Improvement for Patients With Chronic Knee Conditions.

PURPOSE: The high cost of orthopaedic care has attracted criticism in the current value-based health care environment. The objective of this work was to assess the properties of a willingness to pay (WTP)-based approach to estimate the monetary value that patients place on health improvements in chronic knee conditions following orthopaedic treatment. METHODS: A sample of patients with a chronic knee condition were surveyed between January and May of 2018 at a large orthopaedic practice. Each patient provided their WTP for restoration to ideal knee health and completed the Single Assessment Numerical Evaluation (SANE) to describe their baseline knee state. Average WTP was calculated for the total sample and stratified by income, age, and baseline SANE (for which 0 is the worst and 100 is the best) levels. The patient-perceived monetary value of each unit of SANE improvement was assessed. RESULTS: The study sample included 86 patients seeking orthopaedic care for a chronic knee condition. Mean baseline SANE score was 45.5 (standard deviation: 25.0). Mean WTP to obtain ideal knee function from baseline was $18,704 (standard deviation: $18,040). For the full sample, patients valued a 1-unit improvement in SANE score at $291.1 (ß: 291.1; P<0.05). The amount of money patients were willing to pay to achieve ideal knee function varied with age, income, and baseline knee state. CONCLUSIONS: Patients appear to highly value improvement in chronic knee conditions. Willingness-to-pay survey results appear to track expected variation in patient outcome valuation by income and baseline knee condition and could be a valuable approach to assess value-based care in orthopaedics.

Regenesorb and polylactic acid hydroxyapatite anchors are associated with similar osseous integration and rotator cuff healing at 2 years.

BACKGROUND: Commercially available suture anchors for rotator cuff repairs can differ significantly in architecture and material. Clinical data on their osseous integration and its effect on patient-reported outcomes is scarce. Preclinical investigations indicated a higher rate of osseous integration for the open-architecture design of the Healicoil Regenesorb anchor than the closed-threaded design of the Twinfix (Smith & Nephew). The purpose of this study was to investigate these 2 anchors with different architecture and material to determine their effect on osseous integration and clinical outcomes after rotator cuff repair. METHODS: A prospective randomized controlled trial was performed from 2014 to 2019. Sixty-four patients (39 females, 25 males) with an average age of 58.7 years who underwent arthroscopic rotator cuff repair by one of 4 board-certified, fellowship-trained surgeons were randomized to receive Healicoil Regenesorb (PLGA/ß-TCP/Calcium Sulfate) or Twinfix Ultra HA (PLLA/HA) anchors. Thirty-two patients had Healicoil anchors implanted, and 32 patients had Twinfix anchors implanted. Of the 64 patients, 51 returned at 24 months for computed tomographic (CT) examination (25 Twinfix and 26 Healicoil) to determine osteointegration of the anchors. Patient-reported outcomes, including Penn Shoulder Score (PENN), Western Ontario Rotator Cuff Index, visual analog scale, EQ-5D, Single Assessment Numeric Evaluation, Global Rating of Change, were collected at baseline, 6 weeks, 3 months, 6 months, 12 months, and 24 months. Ultrasonography was used to assess rotator cuff integrity after 6 months. Two board-certified, fellowship-trained orthopedic surgeons, blinded to the type of anchors, analyzed the CT scans to assess the anchor osteointegration at 24 months using a previously published grading scale. RESULTS: There were no differences in demographics, preoperative outcomes, or baseline characteristics such as tear size, number of anchors, Goutallier classification, or smoking status between groups. There was no difference in osseous integration between the 2 anchors at 24 months (P = .117). Eight patients had rotator cuff retears, of which 2 patients had Twinfix anchors and 6 patients had Healicoil anchors (P = .18). There were no statistically significant differences in patient-reported outcomes or complications between groups. The 2-year PENN scores were 89 with the Twinfix and 88 with Healicoil anchors (P = .55). CONCLUSION: Despite differences in material and anchor architecture, the rate of healing and patient-reported outcomes were similar between the Twinfix and Healicoil anchor groups. The rate of osteointegration was the same at 2 years.

Risk Adjustment of the Modified Low Back Pain Disability Questionnaire and Neck Disability Index to Benchmark Physical Therapist Performance: Analysis From an Outcomes Registry.

BACKGROUND: Patient-reported outcomes (PROs) have been touted as the ultimate assessment of quality medical care and have been proposed as performance measures after appropriate risk adjustment. Although spine conditions represent the most common orthopedic disorders, the most used PROs for disabilities related to the back and neck-the Modified Low Back Pain Disability Questionnaire (MDQ) and the Neck Disability Index (NDI)-have not been evaluated as performance measures. OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study was to benchmark physical therapists' performance in the management of spine conditions not involving surgery through the use of risk-adjusted MDQ and NDI outcomes. DESIGN: This was a retrospective observational study. METHODS: Data were accessed for patients seeking physical therapy with no history of related surgery for back or neck pain (315,274 treatment episodes) between January 2015 and June 2018. Patients with complete data, including initial and matched final MDQ or NDI, were considered for analysis (182,276 patients; 2799 physical therapists). Linear models controlling for baseline PRO and patient characteristics predicted PRO change for each patient. An aggregated performance ratio of actual PRO change to predicted PRO change was calculated for each physical therapist, and then empirical bootstrapping was used to develop the median performance ratio and its confidence intervals. Physical therapists who met a 40-patient threshold for either cohort (MDQ or NDI) were classified as "outperforming," "meeting expectations," or "underperforming" relative to predicted values using these 95% confidence intervals. RESULTS: Performance ratios indicated that 10% and 11% of physical therapists outperformed, 79% and 78% met expectations, and 11% and 11% underperformed relative to the risk-adjusted predicted change in the MDQ (1240 therapists; 97,908 patients) and NDI (461 therapists; 26,123 patients), respectively. To demonstrate the clinical importance of risk adjustment, clinical performance was evaluated in the seemingly homogeneous subset of 208 physical therapists within 0.5 SD of the median baseline MDQ and the median actual change in the MDQ. Following risk adjustment, 2 physical therapists were classified in each of the outperforming and underperforming cohorts. LIMITATIONS: The secondarily obtained observational data used were not collected for research purposes. Additionally, the analyses were limited by missing baseline information and follow-up PROs. CONCLUSIONS: The risk-adjusted performance ratios for the MDQ and NDI resulted in disparate conclusions regarding the quality of care compared with the raw, unadjusted change scores. According to the baseline and unadjusted change in the MDQ, even physical therapists in the most homogeneous sample were differentiated following appropriate risk adjustment. Clinically important improvements in actual PROs were observed in the outperforming but not in the underperforming physical therapists. Clinically meaningful differences in the performance ratio are unknown and are a limitation to clinical application and an opportunity for future research.

Association of Surgical Treatment With Adverse Events and Mortality Among Medicare Beneficiaries With Proximal Humerus Fracture.

Importance: Meta-analyses of randomized clinical trials suggest that the advantages and risks of surgery compared with conservative management as the initial treatment for proximal humerus fracture (PHF) vary, or are heterogeneous across patients. Substantial geographic variation in surgery rates for PHF suggests that the optimal rate of surgery across the population of patients with PHF is unknown. Objective: To use geographic variation in treatment rates to assess the outcomes associated with higher rates of surgery for patients with PHF. Design, Setting, and Participants: This comparative effectiveness research study analyzed all fee-for-service Medicare beneficiaries with proximal humerus fracture in 2011 who were continuously enrolled in Medicare Parts A and B for the 365-day period before and immediately after their index fracture. Data analysis was performed January through June 2019. Exposure: Undergoing 1 of the commonly used surgical procedures in the 60 days after an index fracture diagnosis. Main Outcomes and Measures: Risk-adjusted area surgery ratios were created for each hospital referral region as a measure of local area practice styles. Instrumental variable approaches were used to assess the association between higher surgery rates and adverse events, mortality risk, and cost at 1 year from Medicare's perspective for patients with PHF in 2011. Instrumental variable models were stratified by age, comorbidities, and frailty. Instrumental variable estimates were compared with estimates from risk-adjusted regression models. Results: The final cohort included 72 823 patients (mean [SD] age, 80.0 [7.9] years; 13 958 [19.2%] men). The proportion of patients treated surgically ranged from 1.8% to 33.3% across hospital referral regions in the United States. Compared with conservatively managed patients, surgical patients were younger (mean [SD] age, 80.4 [8.1] years vs 78.0 [7.2] years; P < .001) and healthier (Charlson Comorbidity Index score of 0, 14 863 [24.4%] patients vs 3468 [29.1%] patients; Function-Related Indicator score of 0, 20 720 [34.0%] patients vs 4980 [41.8%] patients; P < .001 for both), and a larger proportion were women (49 030 [80.5%] patients vs 9835 [82.5%] patients; P < .001). Instrumental variable analysis showed that higher rates of surgery were associated with increased total costs ($8913) during the treatment period, increased adverse event rates (a 1-percentage point increase in the surgery rate was associated with a 0.19-percentage point increase in the 1-year adverse event rate; ß = 0.19; 95% CI, 0.09-0.27; P < .001), and increased mortality risk (a 1-percentage point increase in the surgery rate was associated with a 0.09-percentage point increase in the 1-year mortality rate; ß = 0.09; 95% CI, 0.04-0.15; P < .01). Instrumental variable mortality results were even more striking for older patients and those with higher comorbidity burdens and greater frailty. Risk-adjusted estimates suggested that surgical patients had higher costs (increase of $17 278) and more adverse events (a 1-percentage point increase in the surgery rate was associated with a 0.12-percentage point increase in the 1-year adverse event rate; ß = 0.12; 95% CI, 0.11 to 0.13; P < .001) but lower risk of mortality after PHF (a 1-percentage point increase in the surgery rate was associated with a 0.01-percentage point decrease in the 1-year mortality rate; ß = -0.01; 95% CI, -0.015 to -0.005; P < .001). Conclusions and Relevance: This study found that higher rates of surgery for treatment of patients with PHF were associated with increased costs, adverse event rates, and risk of mortality. Orthopedic surgeons should be aware of the harms of extending the use of surgery to more clinically vulnerable patient subgroups.

Freestanding Dialysis Facility Quality Incentive Program Scores and Mortality Among Incident Dialysis Patients in the United States.

RATIONALE & OBJECTIVE: The Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services introduced the Quality Incentive Program (QIP) along with the bundled payment reform to improve the quality of dialysis care in the United States. The QIP has been criticized for using easily obtained laboratory indicators without patient-centered measures and for a lack of evidence for an association between QIP indicators and patient outcomes. This study examined the association between dialysis facility QIP performance scores and survival among patients after initiation of dialysis. STUDY DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study. SETTING & PARTICIPANTS: Study participants included 84,493 patients represented in the US Renal Disease System's patient-level data who had initiated dialysis between January 1, 2013, and December 1, 2013, and who did not, during the first 90 days after dialysis initiation, die, receive a transplant, or become lost to follow-up. Patients were followed up for the study outcome through March 31, 2014. PREDICTOR: Dialysis facility QIP scores. OUTCOME: Mortality. ANALYTICAL APPROACH: Using a unique facility identifier, we linked Medicare freestanding dialysis facility data from 2015 with US Renal Disease System patient-level data. Kaplan-Meier product limit estimator was used to describe the survival of study participants. Cox proportional hazards regression was used to assess the multivariable association between facility performance scores and patient survival. RESULTS: Excluding patients who died during the first 90 days of dialysis, 11.8% of patients died during an average follow-up of 5 months. Facilities with QIP scores<45 (HR, 1.39; 95% CI, 1.15-1.68) and 45 to<60 (HR, 1.21; 95% CI, 1.10-1.33) had higher patient mortality rates than facilities with scores≥90. LIMITATIONS: Because the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services have revised QIP criteria each year, the findings may not relate to years other than those studied. CONCLUSIONS: Dialysis facilities characterized by lower QIP scores were associated with higher rates of patient mortality. These findings need to be replicated to assess their consistency over time.

Reliability of the American Community Survey Estimates of Risk-Adjusted Readmission Rankings for Hospitals Before and After Peer Group Stratification.

Importance: Since the transition to the American Community Survey, data uncertainty has complicated its use for policy making and research, despite the ongoing need to identify disparities in health care outcomes. The US Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services' new, stratified payment adjustment method for its Hospital Readmissions Reduction Program may be able to reduce the reliance on data linkages to socioeconomic survey estimates. Objective: To determine whether there are differences in the reliability of socioeconomically risk-adjusted hospital readmission rates among hospitals that serve a disproportionate share of low-income populations after stratifying hospitals into peer group-based classification groups. Design, Setting, and Participants: This cross-sectional study uses data from the 2014 New York State Health Cost and Utilization Project State Inpatient Database for 96 278 hospital admissions for acute myocardial infarction, pneumonia, and congestive heart failure. The analysis included patients aged 18 years and older who were not transferred to another hospital, who were discharged alive, who did not leave the hospital against medical advice, and who were discharged before December 2014. Main Outcomes and Measures: The main outcomes were 30-day hospital readmissions after acute myocardial infarction, pneumonia, and congestive heart failure assessed using hierarchical logistic regression. Results: The mean (SD) age of the patients was 69.6 (16.0) years for the safety-net hospitals and 74.9 (14.7) years for the non-safety-net hospitals; 9382 (48.8%) and 7003 (48.5%) patients, respectively, were female. For safety net designations, 20% (3 of 15) of all evaluations concealed and distorted differences in risk, with factors such as poverty failing to identify similar risk of acute myocardial infarction readmission until unreliable estimates were excluded from the analysis (OR, 1.23 [95% CI, 1.00-1.52], P = .02; vs OR, 1.17 [95% CI, 0.94-1.46], P = .15). By comparison, 2 of the 60 models (3%) for the peer group-based classification altered the association between socioeconomic status and readmission risk, concealing similarities in congestive heart failure readmission when adjusted using high school completion rates (OR, 1.27 [95% CI 1.02-1.58], P = .04; vs OR, 1.23 [95% CI, 0.98-1.53], P = .06) and distorting similarities in pneumonia readmissions when accounting for the proportion of lone-parent families (OR, 1.27 [95% CI, 0.98-1.66], P = .07; vs OR, 1.35 [95% CI, 1.02-1.80], P = .04) between the lowest and highest socioeconomic status hospitals in quartile 1. Conclusions and Relevance: There was greater precision in socioeconomic adjusted readmission estimates when hospitals were stratified into the new payment adjustment criteria compared with safety net designations. A contributing factor for improved reliability of American Community Survey estimates under the new payment criteria was the merging of patients from low-income neighborhoods with greater homogeneity in survey estimates into groupings similar to those for higher-income patients, whose neighborhoods often exhibit greater estimate variability. Additional efforts are needed to explore the effect of measurement error on American Community Survey-adjusted readmissions using the new peer group-based classification methods.

Geographic variation in the treatment of proximal humerus fracture: an update on surgery rates and treatment consensus.

BACKGROUND: Using a larger, more comprehensive sample, and inclusion of the reverse shoulder arthroplasty as a primary surgical approach for proximal humerus fracture, we report on geographic variation in the treatment of proximal humerus fracture in 2011 and comment on whether treatment consensus is being reached. METHODS: This was a retrospective cohort study of Medicare patients with an x-ray-confirmed diagnosis of proximal humerus fracture in 2011. Patients receiving reverse shoulder arthroplasty, hemiarthroplasty, or open reduction internal fixation within 60 days of their diagnosis were classified as surgical management patients. Unadjusted observed surgery rates and area treatment ratios adjusted for patient demographic and clinical characteristics were calculated at the hospital referral region level. RESULTS: Among patients with proximal humerus fracture (N = 77,053), 15.4% received surgery and 84.6% received conservative management. Unadjusted surgery rates varied from 1.7 to 33.3% across hospital referral regions. Among patients receiving surgery, 22.3% received hemiarthroplasty, 65.8% received open reduction internal fixation, and 11.8% received reverse shoulder arthroplasty. Patients that were female, were younger, had fewer medical comorbidities, had a lower frailty index, were white, or were not dual-eligible for Medicaid during the month of their index fracture were more likely to receive surgery (p < .0001). Geographic variation in the treatment of proximal humerus fracture persisted after adjustment for patient demographic and clinical differences across local areas. Average surgery rates ranged from 9.9 to 21.2% across area treatment ratio quintiles. CONCLUSIONS: Persistent geographic variation in surgery rates for proximal humerus fracture across the USA suggests no treatment consensus has been reached.

Comparison of Surgeon Performance of Rotator Cuff Repair: Risk Adjustment Toward a More Accurate Performance Measure.

BACKGROUND: Movement toward a value-based health-care system necessitates the development of performance measures to compare physicians, hospitals, and health-care systems. Patient-reported outcomes (PROs) are a potential metric. However, valid use of PROs hinges on the ability to risk-adjust for baseline patient differences across a surgeon's panel of patients. The purpose of this study was to propose an approach for baseline risk adjustment and evaluate the importance of risk adjustment when comparing surgeons' performance of rotator cuff repair. METHODS: Patients (n = 995) treated with arthroscopic rotator cuff repair by 34 surgeons from 2010 to 2017 were identified from a large sports medicine clinical data registry. A linear regression model was used to adjust for baseline PROs, patient demographics, and clinical characteristics to predict American Shoulder and Elbow Surgeons (ASES) change scores for each surgeon. A risk-adjusted performance measure was calculated as the difference between the average unadjusted ASES change scores and the risk-adjusted predicted ASES change scores across all patients treated by a surgeon. RESULTS: The differences between unadjusted and risk-adjusted performance scores varied widely across surgeons (range, -13.8 to 10.3 ASES points). Use of the risk-adjusted performance scores resulted in a dramatic change in the relative ranking of surgeons, compared with the ranking based on the observed ASES change scores, with 31 of the 34 surgeons' rank changing following risk adjustment. On average, the observed ASES scores improved from 49.5 ± 17.5 at baseline to 78.0 ± 22.5 at 6 months across all surgeons. In the risk-adjustment model (R = 0.44), male sex, Workers' Compensation status, higher scores on the Veterans RAND 12-item Health Survey (VR-12), lower baseline ASES scores, fair and poor tendon quality, and night pain all had a significant effect on the predicted ASES change scores (p < 0.05). CONCLUSIONS: Our results show wide variation of nearly 25 points in the risk-adjusted 6-month ASES performance difference from the highest to the lowest-performing surgeons. Additionally, 91% of surgeons' rank changed following risk adjustment. This suggests that performance measurement that does not account for baseline patient characteristics would likely result in incorrect conclusions about a surgeon's relative performance based on PROs. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE: Therapeutic Level IV. See Instructions for Authors for a complete description of levels of evidence.

Treatment for Rotator Cuff Tear Is Influenced by Demographics and Characteristics of the Area Where Patients Live.

BACKGROUND: Atraumatic rotator cuff tear is a common orthopaedic complaint for people >60 years of age. Lack of evidence or consensus on appropriate treatment for this type of injury creates the potential for substantial discretion in treatment decisions. To our knowledge, no study has assessed the implications of this discretion on treatment patterns across the United States. METHODS: All Medicare beneficiaries in the United States with a new magnetic resonance imaging (MRI)-confirmed atraumatic rotator cuff tear were identified with use of 2010 to 2012 Medicare administrative data and were categorized according to initial treatment (surgery, physical therapy, or watchful waiting). Treatment was modeled as a function of the clinical and demographic characteristics of each patient. Variation in treatment rates across hospital referral regions and the presence of area treatment signatures, representing the extent that treatment rates varied across hospital referral regions after controlling for patient characteristics, were assessed. Correlations between measures of area treatment signatures and measures of physician access in hospital referral regions were examined. RESULTS: Among patients who were identified as having a new, symptomatic, MRI-confirmed atraumatic rotator cuff tear (n = 32,203), 19.8% were managed with initial surgery; 41.3%, with initial physical therapy; and 38.8%, with watchful waiting. Patients who were older, had more comorbidity, or were female, of non-white race, or dual-eligible for Medicaid were less likely to receive surgery (p < 0.0001). Black, dual-eligible females had 0.42-times (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.34 to 0.50) lower odds of surgery and 2.36-times (95% CI, 2.02 to 2.70) greater odds of watchful waiting. Covariate-adjusted odds of surgery varied dramatically across hospital referral regions; unadjusted surgery and physical therapy rates varied from 0% to 73% and from 6% to 74%, respectively. On average, patients in high-surgery areas were 62% more likely to receive surgery than the average patient with identical measured characteristics, and patients in low-surgery areas were half as likely to receive surgery than the average comparable patient. The supply of orthopaedic surgeons and the supply of physical therapists were associated with greater use of initial surgery and physical therapy, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Patient characteristics had a significant influence on treatment for atraumatic rotator cuff tear but did not explain the wide-ranging variation in treatment rates across areas. Local-area physician supply and specialty mix were correlated with treatment, independent of the patient's measured characteristics.

A comparison of one-year treatment utilization for shoulder osteoarthritis patients initiating care with non-orthopaedic physicians and orthopaedic specialists.

BACKGROUND: In this paper we investigate patients seeking care for a new diagnosis of shoulder osteoarthritis (OA) and the association between a patient's initial physician specialty choice and one-year surgical and conservative treatment utilization. METHODS: Using retrospective data from a single large regional healthcare system, we identified 572 individuals with a new diagnosis of shoulder OA and identified the specialty of the physician which was listed as the performing physician on the index shoulder visit. We assessed treatment utilization in the year following the index shoulder visit for patients initiating care with a non-orthopaedic physician (NOP) or an orthopaedic specialist (OS). Descriptive statistics were calculated for each group and subsequent one-year surgical and conservative treatment utilization was compared between groups. RESULTS: Of the 572 patients included in the study, 474 (83%) received care from an OS on the date of their index shoulder visit, while 98 (17%) received care from a NOP. There were no differences in baseline patient age, gender, BMI or pain scores between groups. OS patients reported longer symptom duration and a higher rate of comorbid shoulder diagnoses. Patients initiating care with an OS on average received their first treatment much faster than patients initiating care with NOP (16.3 days [95% CI, 12.8, 19.7] vs. 32.3 days [95% CI, 21.0, 43.6], Z = 4.9, p < 0.01). Additionally, patients initiating care with an OS had higher odds of receiving surgery (OR = 2.65, 95% CI: 1.42, 4.95) in the year following their index shoulder visit. CONCLUSIONS: Patients initiating care with an OS received treatment much faster and were treated with more invasive services over the year following their index shoulder visit. Future work should compare patient-reported outcomes across patient groups to assess whether more expensive and invasive treatments yield better outcomes for patients with shoulder OA.

Use of Angiotensin-Converting Enzyme Inhibitors and Angiotensin Receptor Blockers for Geriatric Ischemic Stroke Patients: Are the Rates Right?

BACKGROUND: Our objective is to estimate the effects associated with higher rates of renin-angiotensin system antagonists, angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors and angiotensin receptor blockers (ACEI/ARBs), in secondary prevention for geriatric (aged >65 years) patients with new ischemic strokes by chronic kidney disease (CKD) status. METHODS AND RESULTS: The effects of ACEI/ARBs on survival and renal risk were estimated by CKD status using an instrumental variable (IV) estimator. Instruments were based on local area variation in ACEI/ARB use. Data abstracted from charts were used to assess the assumptions underlying the instrumental estimator. ACEI/ARBs were used after stroke by 45.9% and 45.2% of CKD and non-CKD patients, respectively. ACEI/ARB rate differences across local areas grouped by practice styles were nearly identical for CKD and non-CKD patients. Higher ACEI/ARB use rates for non-CKD patients were associated with higher 2-year survival rates, whereas higher ACEI/ARB use rates for patients with CKD were associated with lower 2-year survival rates. While the negative survival estimates for patients with CKD were not statistically different from zero, they were statistically lower than the estimates for non-CKD patients. Confounders abstracted from charts were not associated with the instrumental variable used. CONCLUSIONS: Higher ACEI/ARB use rates had different survival implications for older ischemic stroke patients with and without CKD. ACEI/ARBs appear underused in ischemic stroke patients without CKD as higher use rates were associated with higher 2-year survival rates. This conclusion is not generalizable to the ischemic stroke patients with CKD, as higher ACEI/ARBS use rates were associated with lower 2-year survival rates that were statistically lower than the estimates for non-CKD patients.