Surgeon variation: a south african spinal pathology treatment survey.

PURPOSE: To investigate variation in treatment decisions among spine surgeons in South Africa and the association between surgeon characteristics and the treatment they select. METHODS: We surveyed 79 South African spine surgeons. We presented four vignettes (cervical spine distractive flexion injury, lumbar disc herniation, degenerative spondylolisthesis with stenosis, and insufficiency fracture) for them to assess and select treatments. We calculated the index of qualitative variation (IQV) to determine the degree of variability within each vignette. We used Fisher's exact, and Kruskal-Wallis tests to assess the relationships between surgeons' characteristics and their responses per vignette. We compared their responses to the recommendations of a panel of spine specialists. RESULTS: IQVs showed moderate to high variability for cervical spine distractive flexion injury and insufficiency fracture and slightly lower levels of variability for lumbar disc herniation and degenerative spondylolisthesis with stenosis. This confirms the heterogeneity in South African spine surgeons' management of spinal pathologies. The surgeon characteristics associated with their treatment selection that were important were caseload, experience and training, and external funding. Also, 19% of the surgeons selected a treatment option that the Panel did not support. CONCLUSION: The findings make a case for evaluating patient outcomes and costs to identify value-based care. Such research would help countries that are seeking to contract with providers on value. Greater uniformity in treatment and easily accessible outcomes reporting would provide guidance for patients. Further investment in training and participation in fellowship programs may be necessary, along with greater dissemination of information from the literature.

Can women's reports in client exit interviews be used to measure and track progress of antenatal care services quality? Evidence from a facility assessment census in Malawi.

INTRODUCTION: Unlike household surveys, client exit interviews are conducted immediately after a consultation and therefore provides an opportunity to capture routine performance and level of service quality. This study examines the validity and reliability of women's reports on selected ANC interventions in exit interviews conducted in Malawi. METHODS: Using data from the 2013-2014 Malawi service provision facility census, we compared women's reports in exit interviews regarding the contents of ANC received with reports obtained through direct observation by a trained healthcare professional. The validity of six indicators was tested using two measures: the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), and the inflation factor (IF). Reliability of women's reports was measured using the Kappa coefficient (κ) and the prevalence-adjusted bias-adjusted kappa (PABAK). Finally, we examined whether reporting reliability varied significantly by individual and facility characteristics. RESULTS: Of the six indicators, two concrete and observable measures had high reporting accuracy and met the validity criteria for both AUC ≥ 0.7 and 0.75>IF>1.25, namely whether the provider prescribed or gave malaria prophylaxis (AUC: 0.84, 95% CI: 0.83-0.86; IF: 0.96) or iron/folic tablets (AUC: (0.84 95% CI: 0.81-0.87; IF:1.00). Whereas four measures related to counselling had lower reporting accuracy: whether the provider offered counselling about nutrition in pregnancy (AUC: 0.69, 95%CI: 0.67-0.71; IF = 1.26), delivery preparation (AUC: 0.62, 95% CI: 0.60-065; IF = 0.99), pregnancy related complications (AUC: 0.59, 95%CI: 0.56-0.61; IF = 1.11), and iron/folic acid side effects (AUC:0.58, 95% CI: 0.55-0.60; IF = 1.42). Similarly, the observable measures had high reliability with both κ and PABAK values in the ranges of ≥ 0.61 and ≥ 0.80. Respondent's age, primiparous status, number of antenatal visits, and the type of health provider increased the likelihood of reporting reliability. CONCLUSION: In order to enhance the measurement of quality of ANC services, our study emphasizes the importance of carefully considering the type of information women are asked to recall and the timing of the interviews. While household survey programmes such as the demographic health survey and multiple indicator cluster survey are commonly used as data sources for measuring intervention coverage and quality, policy makers should complement such data with more reliable sources like routine data from health information systems.

Stressful life events, neighbourhood characteristics, and systolic blood pressure in South Africa.

The relationship between negative events, neighbourhood characteristics, and systolic blood pressure in developing countries is not well-documented, particularly using longitudinal data. To explore this relationship, we analysed panel data from the first three waves of the South African National Income Dynamics Study using a correlated random effects model adjusted for confounding risk factors. Our sample comprised of 15,631 respondents in 2008, 14,443 respondents in 2010/2011, and 14,418 respondents in 2012, all aged above 15 years. The prevalence of at least one negative household event across the three waves was approximately 30%. In any of the three waves, the adjusted prevalence of hypertension was 23.84%. This share was 21.75% in 2008 (95% CI 18.06-25.44), 23.16% in 2010/11 (95% CI 19.18-27.14), and 18.39% in 2012 (95% CI 16.03-20.75). In our adjusted correlated random effects model, we found that systolic blood pressure was significantly higher among respondents from households that reported death of a household member (0.85 mmHg; p = 0.02) and a reduction in grant income and remittances (2.14 mm Hg; p = 0.01). We also found no significant association between systolic blood pressure and neighbourhood income level. In a country with social and economic challenges, our results indicate that grief and negative financial events are adversely associated with blood pressure, which may explain in part the significant burden of hypertension in low- and middle-income countries.

Decomposing inequality of opportunity in child health in Tanzania: The role of access to water and sanitation.

Poor child nutrition is a major public health challenge in Tanzania. Large between and within regional nutritional inequalities exist in rural and urban areas. We looked at how locational circumstances hinder children from having an equal opportunity for good nutrition. We used the 2008/09 Living Standards Measurement Study data for Tanzania to identify the part played by water and sanitation in rural and urban inequality of opportunity in child nutrition. We used the dissimilarity index and the Shapley decomposition technique to quantify and decompose inequality of opportunity in nutrition. We find that 16% of the circumstance-driven inequality of opportunity needs to be redistributed for equality of opportunity to prevail. We find that in rural areas, about 42% of the inequality of opportunity in nutrition is due to water and sanitation problems and 22% to child age. In urban areas, we find that the inequality of opportunity is related mainly to the child's sex, price fluctuations and intergenerational factors. The findings suggest that policies to improve water and sanitation coverage could help equalize opportunities for children in rural areas. In urban areas, policies that could help equalize opportunities require incentives to change social norms and behavior around feeding practices and vaccination.

The health impact of free access to antiretroviral therapy in South Africa.

Since 2004 the South African government has rolled out free antiretroviral therapy (ART) at public health care facilities nationwide. No prior studies have estimated the impact of the ART rollout on health and survival using a longitudinal household survey with national coverage. We match household member deaths and self-assessed health from a large national longitudinal survey to community-level ART availability in clinics to estimate the reduction in mortality and morbidity attributable to ART availability between 2006 and 2016, using a difference-in-difference model. Our analysis focuses on black Africans aged 25-49 because this demographic group represents more than two-thirds of all South African HIV cases. We find that the rollout of free ART has reduced annual mortality by 27% and decreased the likelihood of reporting poor health by 36% for black Africans aged 25-49. These estimates amount to annual reductions in this demographic category of 31% in annual mortality and 47% in individuals reporting poor health. Our findings confirm that making ART treatment freely available nationwide has had a dramatic impact in terms of both prolonged survival and improved health, with most of these gains concentrated in the high HIV prevalence group of black Africans aged 25-49.

Longitudinal changes in COVID-19 vaccination intent among South African adults: evidence from the NIDS-CRAM panel survey, February to May 2021.

BACKGROUND: COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy has threatened the ability of many countries worldwide to contain the pandemic. Given the severe impact of the pandemic in South Africa and disruptions to the roll-out of the vaccine in early 2021, slower-than-expected uptake is a pressing public health challenge in the country. We examined longitudinal changes in COVID-19 vaccination intent among South African adults, as well as determinants of intent to receive a vaccine. METHODS: We used longitudinal data from Wave 4 (February/March 2021) and Wave 5 (April/May 2021) of the National Income Dynamics Study: Coronavirus Rapid Mobile Survey (NIDS-CRAM), a national and broadly representative panel survey of adults in South Africa. We conducted cross-sectional analyses on aggregate and between-group variation in vaccination intent, examined individual-level changes between waves, and modeled demographic predictors of intent. RESULTS: We analysed data for 5629 (Wave 4; 48% male, mean age 41.5 years) and 5862 (Wave 5; 48% male, mean age 41.6 years) respondents. Willingness to get a COVID-19 vaccine significantly increased from 70.8% (95% CI: 68.5-73.1) in Wave 4 to 76.1% (95% CI: 74.2-77.8) in Wave 5. Individual-level analyses indicated that only 6.6% of respondents remained strongly hesitant between survey waves. Although respondents aged 18-24 years were 8.5 percentage points more likely to report hesitancy, hesitant respondents in this group were 5.6 percentage points more likely to change their minds by Wave 5. Concerns about rushed testing and safety of the vaccines were frequent and strongly-held reasons for hesitancy. CONCLUSIONS: Willingness to receive a COVID-19 vaccine has increased among adults in South Africa, and those who were entrenched in their reluctance make up a small proportion of the country's population. Younger adults, those in formal housing, and those who trusted COVID-19 information on social media were more likely to be hesitant. Given that stated vaccination intent may not translate into behaviour, our finding that three-quarters of the population were willing to accept the vaccine may reflect an upper bound. Vaccination promotion campaigns should continue to frame vaccine acceptance as the norm and tailor strategies to different demographic groups.

Predictors of mask-wearing during the advent of the COVID-19 pandemic: Evidence from South Africa.

BACKGROUND: In the absence of a vaccine, the global spread of COVID-19 during 2020 has necessitated non-pharmaceutical interventions to curb the rise of cases. PURPOSE: The article uses the health belief model and a novel rapid mobile survey to examine correlates of reported mask-wearing as a non-pharmaceutical intervention in South Africa between May and August 2020. METHODS: Two-way tabulations and multivariable analysis via logistic regression modeling describe correlations between reported mask-wearing and factors of interest among a sample of 7074 adults in a two-period national longitudinal survey, the National Income Dynamics Study-Coronavirus Rapid Mobile Survey (NIDS-CRAM). RESULTS: In line with the health belief model, results showed that self-efficacy, the prevalence of others' mask-wearing in the same district, and affluence were positively associated with reported mask-wearing. Those who reported staying at home were significantly less likely to report wearing a mask. There was little evidence that the expected severity of the disease if contracted, affects these decisions. Hypertension, obesity, or being overweight (measured three years earlier) did not have a significant association with mask-wearing. The prevalence of mask-wearing increased significantly from May to August 2020 as COVID-19 cases increased and lockdown restrictions were eased. Contrary to the health belief model, we found that despite having a higher mortality risk, the elderly had significantly lower odds of mask-wearing. CONCLUSION: In South Africa, the mask-wearing adherence has increased rapidly. It is concerning that the elderly had lower odds of mask-wearing. This should be examined further in future research.

Testing an Incentive-Based and Community Health Worker Package Intervention to Improve Maternal Health and Nutrition Outcomes: A Pilot Randomized Controlled Trial.

OBJECTIVES: In order to address South Africa's maternal and infant mortality and morbidity rates, patient and community-level preventable factors need to be identified and addressed. However, there are few rigorously implemented and tested studies in low- and middle-income countries that evaluate the impact of community-level interventions on maternal and infant health outcomes. This study examined the impact of a package intervention, consisting of an incentive called the Thula Baba Box (TBB) and a community health worker (CHW) programme, on maternal depressive symptoms, maternal nutrition and intention to exclusively breastfeed. METHOD: The intervention was tested using a pilot randomised controlled trial consisting of 72 (39 treatment and 33 control) adult women, implemented in a low-income, peri-urban area in Cape Town, South Africa. Data was collected using a baseline questionnaire conducted shortly after recruitment, and an end line questionnaire conducted a week after giving birth. RESULTS: The intervention resulted in a 0.928-point drop in the maternal depressive symptom scale (which ranges from 1 to 8). We find no evidence that the intervention has either a sizeable or precisely estimated impact on maternal nutrition, measured using middle-upper arm circumference. While the intervention has almost no effect on the infant feeding intention of women who own refrigerators, it has a very large positive effect of 3.349-points (on a scale ranging from 1 to 8) for women without refrigerators. CONCLUSION: A package intervention consisting of psycho-social support, additional tailored health information, and an incentive to utilise public antenatal care services has the potential to increase exclusive breastfeeding intention and reduce maternal depressive symptoms among the economically vulnerable.

Who is more likely to return for TB test results? A survey at three high-burden primary healthcare facilities in Cape Town, South Africa.

BACKGROUND: In low- and middle-income countries with a high burden of tuberculosis (TB), a large proportion of people who are tested for TB do not return to the health facility to collect their test results and initiate treatment, thus putting themselves at increased risk of adverse outcomes. METHODS: This prospective study aimed to identify predictors of returning to the primary health care (PHC) facility to collect TB test results. From 15 August to 15 December 2017, 1105 people who tested for pulmonary TB at three Cape Town PHC facilities were surveyed. Using multi-variate logistic regressions on an analysis sample of 1097 people, three groups of predictors were considered: (i) demographics, health and socio-economic status; (ii) costs and benefits; and (iii) behavioural factors. RESULTS: Forty-four percent of people tested returned to the PHC facility to collect their test results within the stipulated 2 days, and 68% returned before the end of the study period. Return was strongly and positively correlated with expecting a TB-positive result, cognitive avoidance and postponement behaviour. CONCLUSION: Interventions to improve pre-treatment loss to follow-up should target patients who think they do not have TB, and those with a history of postponement behaviour and cognitive avoidance.

Changing Inequalities in Health-Adjusted Life Expectancy by Income and Race in South Africa.

Trends in socioeconomic-related health inequalities is a particularly pertinent topic in South Africa where years of systematic discrimination under apartheid bequeathed a legacy of inequalities in health outcomes. We use three nationally representative datasets to examine trends in income- and race-related inequalities in life expectancy (LE) and health-adjusted life expectancy (HALE) since the beginning of the millennium. We find that, in aggregate, (HA)LE at age five fell substantially between 2001 and 2007, but then increased to above 2001 levels by 2016, with the largest changes observed among prime age adults. Income- and race-related inequalities in both LE and HALE favor relatively well-off and non-Black South Africans in all survey years. Both income- and race-related inequalities in (HA)LE grew between 2001 and 2007, and then narrowed between 2007 to 2016. However, while race-related inequalities in (HA)LE in 2016 were smaller than in 2001, income-related inequalities in (HA)LE were greater in 2016 than in 2001. Based on the patterns and timing observed, these trends in income- and race-related inequalities in (HA)LE are most likely related to the delayed initial policy response to the HIV epidemic, the subsequent rapid and effective rollout of anti-retroviral therapy, and the changes in the overall income distribution among Black South Africans. In particular, the growth of the Black middle class narrowed the HA(LE) gap with the non-Black population but reinforced income-related inequalities.

'The nurse did not even greet me': how informed versus non-informed patients evaluate health systems responsiveness in South Africa.

INTRODUCTION: Universal Health Coverage is not only about access to health services but also about access to high-quality care, since poor experiences may deter patients from accessing care. Evidence shows that quality of care drives health outcomes, yet little is known about non-clinical dimensions of care, and patients' experience thereof relative to satisfaction with visits. This paper investigates the role of non-clinical dimensions of care in patient satisfaction. METHODS: Our study describes the interactions of informed and non-informed patients with primary healthcare workers at 39 public healthcare facilities in two metropolitan centres in two South African provinces. Our analysis included 1357 interactions using standardised patients (for informed patients) and patients' exit interviews (for non-informed patients). The data were combined for three types of visits: contraception, hypertension and tuberculosis. We describe how satisfaction with care was related to patients' experiences of non-clinical dimensions. RESULTS: We show that when real patients (RPs) reported being satisfied (vs dissatisfied) with a visit, it was associated with a 30% increase in the probability that a patient is greeted at the facilities. Likewise, when the RPs reported being satisfied (vs dissatisfied) with the visit, it was correlated with a 15% increase in the prospect that patients are pleased with healthcare workers' explanations of health conditions. CONCLUSION: Informed patients are better equipped to assess health-systems responsiveness in healthcare provision. Insights into responsiveness could guide broader efforts aimed at targeted education and empowerment of primary healthcare users to strengthen health systems and shape expectations for appropriate care and conduct.

Cost and cost-effectiveness of a universal HIV testing and treatment intervention in Zambia and South Africa: evidence and projections from the HPTN 071 (PopART) trial.

BACKGROUND: The HPTN 071 (PopART) trial showed that a combination HIV prevention package including universal HIV testing and treatment (UTT) reduced population-level incidence of HIV compared with standard care. However, evidence is scarce on the costs and cost-effectiveness of such an intervention. METHODS: Using an individual-based model, we simulated the PopART intervention and standard care with antiretroviral therapy (ART) provided according to national guidelines for the 21 trial communities in Zambia and South Africa (for all individuals aged >14 years), with model parameters and primary cost data collected during the PopART trial and from published sources. Two intervention scenarios were modelled: annual rounds of PopART from 2014 to 2030 (PopART 2014-30; as the UNAIDS Fast-Track target year) and three rounds of PopART throughout the trial intervention period (PopART 2014-17). For each country, we calculated incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) as the cost per disability-adjusted life-year (DALY) and cost per HIV infection averted. Cost-effectiveness acceptability curves were used to indicate the probability of PopART being cost-effective compared with standard care at different thresholds of cost per DALY averted. We also assessed budget impact by projecting undiscounted costs of the intervention compared with standard care up to 2030. FINDINGS: During 2014-17, the mean cost per person per year of delivering home-based HIV counselling and testing, linkage to care, promotion of ART adherence, and voluntary medical male circumcision via community HIV care providers for the simulated population was US$6·53 (SD 0·29) in Zambia and US$7·93 (0·16) in South Africa. In the PopART 2014-30 scenario, median ICERs for PopART delivered annually until 2030 were $2111 (95% credible interval [CrI] 1827-2462) per HIV infection averted in Zambia and $3248 (2472-3963) per HIV infection averted in South Africa; and $593 (95% CrI 526-674) per DALY averted in Zambia and $645 (538-757) per DALY averted in South Africa. In the PopART 2014-17 scenario, PopART averted one infection at a cost of $1318 (1098-1591) in Zambia and $2236 (1601-2916) in South Africa, and averted one DALY at $258 (225-298) in Zambia and $326 (266-391) in South Africa, when outcomes were projected until 2030. The intervention had almost 100% probability of being cost-effective at thresholds greater than $700 per DALY averted in Zambia, and greater than $800 per DALY averted in South Africa, in the PopART 2014-30 scenario. Incremental programme costs for annual rounds until 2030 were $46·12 million (for a mean of 341 323 people) in Zambia and $30·24 million (for a mean of 165 852 people) in South Africa. INTERPRETATION: Combination prevention with universal home-based testing can be delivered at low annual cost per person but accumulates to a considerable amount when scaled for a growing population. Combination prevention including UTT is cost-effective at thresholds greater than $800 per DALY averted and can be an efficient strategy to reduce HIV incidence in high-prevalence settings. FUNDING: US National Institutes of Health, President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief, International Initiative for Impact Evaluation, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Lockdown-Associated Hunger May Be Affecting Breastfeeding: Findings from a Large SMS Survey in South Africa.

The impact that the COVID-19 pandemic has had, and will continue to have, on food security and child health is especially concerning. A rapid, Short Message Service (SMS) Maternal and Child Health survey was conducted in South Africa in June 2020 (n = 3140), with a follow-up in July 2020 (n = 2287). This was a national cross-sectional survey conducted among pregnant women and mothers registered with the MomConnect mhealth platform. Logistic regression was conducted to explore the associations between breastfeeding, maternal depressive symptoms, and hunger in the household. High breastfeeding initiation rates and the early introduction of other foods or mixed milk feeding were found. The prevalence of depressive symptoms in this survey sample was 26.95%, but there was no association between breastfeeding behaviour and depressive symptom scores (OR = 0.89; 95% CI: 0.63, 1.27). A positive correlation was found between not breastfeeding and not going to the health clinic. The odds of hungry mothers breastfeeding were significantly lower (OR = 0.66; p = 0.045). This result also holds in a multivariate framework, including covariates such as depressive symptoms, attendance of a PHC facility, and whether the infant was older than 3 months. Support for breastfeeding must include support, such as economic support, for breastfeeding mothers, to enable them to access nutritious diets. Mothers also need reassurance on the quality of their breastmilk and their ability to breastfeed and should be encouraged to continue to attend the health clinic regularly.

Access to health care in post-apartheid South Africa: availability, affordability, acceptability.

We use a reliable, intuitive and simple set of indicators to capture three dimensions of access - availability, affordability and acceptability. Data are from South Africa's 2009 and 2010 General Household Surveys (n=190,164). Affordability constraints were faced by 23% and are more concentrated amongst the poorest. However, 73% of affordability constraints are due to travel costs which are aligned with findings of the availability constraints dimension. Availability constraints, involving distances and transport costs, particularly in underdeveloped rural areas, and inconvenient opening times, were faced by 27%. Acceptability constraints were noted by only 10%. We approximate acceptability with an indicator measuring the share of community members bypassing the closest health care facility, as we argue that reported health care provider choice is more reliable than stated preferences. However, the indicator assumes a choice of available and affordable providers, which may often not be an accurate assumption in rural areas. We recommend further work on the measurement of acceptability in household surveys, especially considering this dimension's importance for health reform.

Use of simulated patients to assess hypertension case management at public healthcare facilities in South Africa.

OBJECTIVE: Our study aims to evaluate hypertensive case management in South Africa's public health sector using simulated patients. METHOD: Our study describes interactions between hypertensive simulated patients and primary healthcare workers at 39 public sector healthcare facilities in two metropolitan centres in the Eastern and Western Cape Provinces of South Africa. Our analysis focus on 97 interactions where our eight simulated patients tested within range for stage 1 hypertension, that is with SBP 140-159 mmHg and/or DBP 90-99 mmHg. For this subset, we describe how healthcare workers communicated the outcome of the blood pressure test, and whether they follow government guidelines on risk assessment and lifestyle advice. RESULTS: Healthcare workers highlighted the risks associated with hypertension in one out of three cases and stressed the importance of regular monitoring of blood pressure in less than half of cases. Hypertensive patients received advice on all six lifestyle risk factors in 8% of cases. 39% of patients received no lifestyle advice at all. In one out of four cases, hypertensive patients left the facility without a hypertension diagnosis and with no prospect of a follow-up visit. CONCLUSION: Simulated patients can assess the quality of hypertension case management, yielding granular and comprehensive information that can help mobilize resources to improve care. The management of hypertension patients in South African public healthcare facilities is critically insufficient. Given that hypertension is responsible for a rising share of deaths in South Africa and many of these deaths are preventable, urgent intervention is needed.

SMS nudges as a tool to reduce tuberculosis treatment delay and pretreatment loss to follow-up. A randomized controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: TB persists despite being relatively easy to detect and cure because the journey from the onset of symptoms to cure involves a series of steps, with patients being lost to follow-up at each stage and delays occurring among patients not lost to follow-up. One cause of drop-off and delay occurs when patients delay or avoid returning to clinic to get their test results and start treatment. METHODS: We fielded two SMS interventions in three Cape Town clinics to see their effects on whether people returned to clinic, and how quickly. One was a simple reminder; the other aimed to overcome "optimism bias" by reminding people TB is curable and many millions die unnecessarily from it. Recruits were randomly assigned at the clinic level to a control group or one of the two SMS groups (1:2:2). In addition to estimating effects on the full sample, we also estimated effects on HIV-positive patients. RESULTS: SMS recipients were more likely to return to clinic in the requested two days than the control group. The effect was smaller in the intent-to-treat analysis (52/101 or 51.5% vs. 251/405 or 62.0%, p = 0.05) than in the per-protocol analysis (50/97 or 51.5% vs. 204/318 or 64.2%, p = 0.03). The effect was larger among HIV-positives (10/35 or 28.6% vs. 97/149 or 65.1%, p<0.01). The effects of SMS messages diminished as the interval increased: significant effects at the 5% level were found at five and 10 days only among HIV-positives. The second SMS message had larger effects, albeit not significantly larger, likely due in part to lack of statistical power. CONCLUSIONS: At 2 U.S. cents per message, SMS reminders are an inexpensive option to encourage TB testers to return to clinic, especially when worded to counter optimism bias.

Examining the impact of WHO's Focused Antenatal Care policy on early access, underutilisation and quality of antenatal care services in Malawi: a retrospective study.

BACKGROUND: A variety of antenatal care models have been implemented in low and middle-income countries over the past decades, as proposed by the World Health Organisation (WHO). One such model is the 2001 Focused Antenatal Care (FANC) programme. FANC recommended a minimum of four visits for women with uncomplicated pregnancies and emphasised quality of care to improve both maternal and neonatal outcomes. Malawi adopted FANC in 2003, however, up to now no study has been done to analyse the model's performance with regards to antenatal care service quality and utilisation patterns. METHODS: The paper is based on data pooled from three comparable nationally representative Malawi Demographic and Health Survey (MDHS) datasets (2000, 2004 and 2010). The DHS collects data on demographics, socio-economic indicators, antenatal care, and the fertility history of reproductive women aged between 15 and 49. We pooled a sample of 8545 women who had a live birth in the last 5 years prior to each survey. We measure the impact of FANC on early access to care, underutilisation of care and quality of care with interrupted time series analysis. This method enables us to track changes in both levels and the trends of our outcome variables. RESULTS: We find that FANC is associated with earlier access to care. However, it has also been associated with unintended increases in underutilisation. We see no change in the quality of ANC services. CONCLUSION: In light of the WHO 2016 ANC guidelines, which recommend an increase of visits to eight, these results are important. Given that we find underutilisation when the benchmark is set at four visits, eight visits are unlikely to be feasible in low-resource settings.

Patient predictors of health-seeking behaviour for persons coughing for more than two weeks in high-burden tuberculosis communities: the case of the Western Cape, South Africa.

BACKGROUND: This study aimed to analyse the patient predictors of health-seeking behaviour for persons coughing for more than 2 weeks to better understand this vulnerable and important population. METHODS: The study analysed data from a cohort study (SOCS - Secondary Outcome Cohort Study) embedded in a community randomised trial ZAMSTAR (Zambia and South Africa TB and AIDS Reduction Study) in eight high-burden TB communities in the Western Cape, South Africa. These datasets are unique as they contain TB-related data as well as data on health, health-seeking behaviour, lifestyle choices, employment, socio-economic status, education and stigma. We use uni- and multivariate logistic regressions to estimate the odds ratios of consulting for a cough (of more than 2 weeks duration) for a range of relevant patient predictors. RESULTS: Three hundred and forty persons consulted someone about their cough and this represents 37% of the 922 participants who reported coughing for more than 2 weeks. In the multivariate analysis, respondents of black ethnic origin (OR 1.99, 95% CI 1.28-3.12, P < 0.01), those with higher levels of education (OR 1.05 per year of education, 95% CI 1.00-1.10, P = 0.05), and older respondents (OR 1.02 per year, 95% CI 1.01-1.04, P < 0.01) had a higher likelihood of consulting for their chronic cough. Individuals who smoked (OR 0.63, 95% CI 0.45-0.88, P < 0.01) and those with higher levels of socio-economic status (OR 0.81, 95% CI 0.71-0.92, P < 0.01) were less likely to consult. We find no evidence of stigma playing a role in health-seeking decisions, but caution that this may be due to the difficulty of accurately and reliably capturing stigma due to, amongst other factors, social desirability bias. CONCLUSIONS: The low levels of consultation for a cough of more than 2 weeks suggest that there are opportunities to improve case-finding. These findings on health-seeking behaviour can assist policymakers in designing TB screening and active case-finding interventions that are targeted to the characteristics of those with a chronic cough who do not seek care.