Household recovery in Mosul one year after the defeat of ISIS.

BACKGROUND: Widespread devastation to structures and households in Mosul occurred during the three years of ISIS control and the military liberation campaign by Iraqi forces assisted by coalition forces. Military operations, particularly airstrikes, resulted in a greater loss of life than during ISIS control. In 2016/17, we assessed living circumstances in Mosul immediately following defeat of ISIS. In September 2018, we reassessed many of the same indicators in Mosul households to determine the extent of recovery. METHODS: For the 2018 survey, a random selection of 20 clusters were drawn from the 40 clusters surveyed in 2016/17. Of these 20 clusters, 12 were in east Mosul and 8 in west Mosul, the same proportion as the original survey. In each cluster, 30 households were interviewed. No households were included in both surveys. A team of four interviewers collected information using questions adapted from the 2016/17 questionnaire. RESULTS: Among the 3375 persons from the 600 households in the 2018 survey, there had been 18 deaths reported in the year since the end of ISIS control, a mortality rate of 6.1/1000 (CI95% [2.4-9.8]). This compares with a mortality rate of 30.7/1000 (CI95% [28.3-33.2]) during ISIS control and liberation. Fifteen deaths were from disease, one from a non-intentional injury and two deaths due to intentional violence. Damage to dwellings had been fully repaired in only 22 (5.5%) of houses, mostly in less damaged east Mosul. Dramatic improvements in access to water and electricity have occurred, with three quarters of households reporting uninterrupted access to both. The previously reported large number of early marriages among household members stopped with the departure of ISIS. Of the 31 household marriages reported over a 12-month follow on study, 6 (19.4%) involved a female member of the household. This compares with 131 household males and 688 household females married during ISIS occupation. If marriages had continued at the same rate as for ISIS years during our one-year follow-on study, there would have been and expected 24 marriages of household males and 126 marriages of household females (OD 32.8, CI95%[10.5102.8]) p < 0.001. There were 657 children reported by households to be in primary school. However, by household listing there were only 380 of children in the usual primary school age range (6-11), suggesting older children are catching up on primary schooling missed during ISIS years. One report of physical violence between spouses occurred. By comparison, the adjusted number of reported violent spousal events during ISIS control and military action would have been 72.7 (OR 316.7, CI95% [44.42259.9]), p < 0.001. Reported complications of pregnancy also declined (OR 10.3, CI95% [5.4,19.4], p < 0.001. CONCLUSIONS: Substantial improvements in household measures have occurred since the end of ISIS control and military action, though much remains for full recovery. Many household members are now employed, primary school attendance is high and early marriage of girls was not found. There are fewer reported complications of pregnancy than in the previous study.

Living in Mosul during the time of ISIS and the military liberation: results from a 40-cluster household survey.

BACKGROUND: In June 2014, an estimated 1500 fighters of the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) seized control of Mosul, Iraq's second city. Although many residents fled, others stayed behind, enduring the restrictive civil and social policies of ISIS. In December 2016, the military activity, known as the liberation campaign, began in east Mosul, concluding in west Mosul in June 2017. METHODS: To assess life in Mosul under ISIS, and the consequences of the military campaign to retake Mosul we conducted a 40 cluster-30 household survey in Mosul, starting in March 2017. All households included were present in Mosul throughout the entire time of ISIS control and military action. RESULTS: In June 2014, 915 of 1139 school-age children (80.3%) had been in school, but only 28 (2.2%) attended at least some school after ISIS seized control. This represented a decision of families. Injuries to women resulting from intimate partner violence were reported in 415 (34.5%) households. In the surveyed households, 819 marriages had occurred; 688 (84.0%) among women. Of these women, 89 (12.9%) were aged 15 years and less, and 253 (49.7%) were aged under 18 at the time of marriage. With Mosul economically damaged by ISIS control and physically during the Iraqi military action, there was little employment at the time of the survey, and few persons were bringing cash into households. The liberation of Mosul in 2017 caused extensive damage to dwellings. Overall only a quarter of dwellings had not sustained some damage. In west Mosul, only 21.7% of houses had little or no damage from the conflict, with 98 (21.7%) households reporting their house had been destroyed, forcing its occupants to move. No houses had regular electricity and there was limited piped water. Inadequate fuel for cooking was reported by 996 (82.9%) households. CONCLUSION: The physical, and social damage occurring during ISIS occupation of Mosul and during the subsequent military action (liberation) was substantial and its impact is unlikely to be erased soon.

Trends in infectious disease incidence among children in Afghanistan at a time of public health services expansion.

This study reviewed trends in the incidence of common communicable diseases among children under five years in Afghanistan between 2005 and 2013, a period of expansion of public health services. New visits to outpatient clinics constituted the denominator for calculating proportions. In 2013, almost three-quarters of all new visits of children to public health services were for an infectious disease, with respiratory infections the most common. Because of inconsistent data collection for some infections early in the period, the trend for infectious diseases as a whole cannot be estimated. However, there was a statistically significant downward trend in the proportion of new visits that were diagnosed as one of the 11 leading communicable diseases from 74.5% in 2005 to 62.1% in 2013 (P < 0.001). There was no difference in communicable disease patterns between provinces, but a higher per capita consultation rate was associated with a higher proportion of the leading infections (P = 0.008). Recent improvements in maternal health, hygiene, and preventive services may have had an impact in reducing the burden of infections.

Drinking water system treatment and contamination in Shatila Refugee Camp in Beirut, Lebanon.

Drinking water at Shatila Palestinian Refugee Camp in Beirut, Lebanon is of poor quality and unpredictably intermittent quantity. We aimed to characterize drinking water sources and contamination at Shatila and determine how drinking water can be managed to reduce community health burdens. We interviewed the Popular Committee, well owners, water vendors, water shopkeepers and preschool administrators about drinking water sources, treatment methods and the population served. Water samples from the sources and intermediaries were analysed for thermotolerant faecal coliforms (FCs), Giardia lamblia, Cryptosporidium parvum and microsporidia, using immunofluorescent antibody detection for G. lamblia and C. parvum, and chromotrope-2 stain for microsporidia. All drinking water sources were contaminated with FCs and parasites. FC counts (cfu/mL) were as follows: wells (35-300), water vendors (2-178), shops (30-300) and preschools (230-300). Responsible factors identified included: unskilled operators; improper maintenance of wells and equipment; lack of proper water storage and handling; and misperception of water quality. These factors must be addressed to improve water quality at Shatila and other refugee camps.

Trends in infectious disease incidence among children in Afghanistan at a time of public health services expansion

This study reviewed trends in the incidence of common communicable diseases among children under five years in Afghanistan between 2005 and 2013, a period of expansion of public health services. New visits to outpatient clinics constituted the denominator for calculating proportions. In 2013, almost three-quarters of all new visits of children to public health services were for an infectious disease, with respiratory infections the most common. Because of inconsistent data collection for some infections early in the period, the trend for infectious diseases as a whole cannot be estimated. However, there was a statistically significant downward trend in the proportion of new visits that were diagnosed as one of the 11 leading communicable diseases from 74.5% in 2005 to 62.1% in 2013 [P < 0.001]. There was no difference in communicable disease patterns between provinces, but a higher per capita consultation rate was associated with a higher proportion of the leading infections [P = 0.008]. Recent improvements in maternal health, hygiene, and preventive services may have had an impact in reducing the burden of infections

La présente étude a étudié les tendances de l'incidence des maladies transmissibles les plus répandues chez les enfants de moins de cinq ans en Afghanistan entre 2005 et 2013. Les premières consultations en soins ambulatoires ont constitué le dénominateur pour calculer les pourcentages. En 2013, près de trois quarts de toutes les premières consultations d'enfants dans les services de santé publique avaient pour cause une maladie infectieuse, les infections respiratoires étant les plus fréquentes. Du fait d'une collecte des données incohérente pour certaines infections au début de la période d'étude, les tendances pour les maladies infectieuses dans leur ensemble ne peuvent être estimées. Pour autant, une tendance à la baisse statistiquement significative a été observée en ce qui concerne le nombre de premières visites pour lesquelles le diagnostic établi était l'une des 11 maladies transmissibles les plus répandues [74,5% en 2005 contre 62,1% en 2013, soit p < 0,0001]. Aucune différence en termes de caractéristiques des maladies transmissibles n'a été établie entre les provinces, mais un taux de consultation plus élevé par habitant a été associé avec un pourcentage plus élevé pour les infections principales [p = 0,008]. Les récentes améliorations en matière de santé maternelle, d'hygiène et de services de prévention ont pu avoir une influence sur la réduction de la charge des infections

Drinking water system treatment and contamination in Shatila refugee camp in Beirut, Lebanon

Drinking water at Shatila Palestinian Refugee Camp in Beirut, Lebanon is of poor quality and unpredictably intermittent quantity. We aimed to characterize drinking water sources and contamination at Shatila and determine how drinking water can be managed to reduce community health burdens. We interviewed the Popular Committee, well owners, water vendors, water shopkeepers and preschool administrators about drinking water sources, treatment methods and the population served. Water samples from the sources and intermediaries were analysed for thermotolerant faecal coliforms [FCs], Giardia lamblia, Cryptosporidium parvum and microsporidia, using immunofluorescent antibody detection for G. lamblia and C. parvum, and chromotrope-2 stain for microsporidia. All drinking water sources were contaminated with FCs and parasites. FC counts [cfu/mL] were as follows: wells [35-300], water vendors [2-178], shops [30-300] and preschools [230-300]. Responsible factors identified included: unskilled operators; improper maintenance of wells and equipment; lack of proper water storage and handling; and misperception of water quality. These factors must be addressed to improve water quality at Shatila and other refugee camps

L'eau potable dans le camp de réfugiés palestiniens de Chatila, au Liban, est de mauvaise qualité et n'est disponible qu'en quantités imprévisibles et irrégulières. La présente étude avait pour objectif d'identifier les sources d'eau potable et de contamination à Chatila, et de déterminer la façon dont l'eau potable peut être gérée pour réduire la charge des problèmes de santé communautaires. Nous avons interrogé le Comité populaire, les propriétaires de puits, les vendeurs d'eau ambulants, les marchands d'eau, les responsables de structures préscolaires sur les sources d'eau potable, les méthodes de traitement et la population desservie. Des échantillons d'eau à la source et au niveau des intermédiaires ont été analysés afin de détecter la présence de coliformes thermotolérants, de Giardia lamblia, de Cryptosporidium parvum et de microsporidies, à l'aide de la recherche des anticorps par immunofluorescence pour G. lamblia and C. parvum, et de la coloration au chromotrope 2R pour les microsporidies. Toutes les sources d'eau potable étaient contaminées par des coliformes thermotolérants et des parasites. Les taux [ufc/ml] de coliformes thermotolérants étaient les suivants : puits [35-300], vendeurs d'eau ambulants [2-178], commerces [30-300] et structures préscolaires [230-300]. Les facteurs responsables identifiés incluaient les points suivants : des opérateurs non formés, une mauvaise maintenance des puits et des équipements, un stockage et une manutention de l'eau inappropriés, et une perception erronée de la qualité de l'eau. Il est nécessaire d'agir sur ces facteurs afin d'améliorer la qualité de l'eau à Chatila et dans les autres camps de réfugiés

Strengthening the evidence base for health programming in humanitarian crises.

Given the growing scale and complexity of responses to humanitarian crises, it is important to develop a stronger evidence base for health interventions in such contexts. Humanitarian crises present unique challenges to rigorous and effective research, but there are substantial opportunities for scientific advance. Studies need to focus where the translation of evidence from noncrisis scenarios is not viable and on ethical ways of determining what happens in the absence of an intervention. Robust methodologies suited to crisis settings have to be developed and used to assess interventions with potential for delivery at scale. Strengthening research capacity in the low- to middle-income countries that are vulnerable to crises is also crucial.

Institutional frameworks for management of epizoonotic emergencies in six countries in the Eastern Africa region: a situational analysis.

INTRODUCTION: The Eastern Africa region is a hot-spot for epidemics of emerging zoonotic diseases ('epizoonotics'). However, the region's capacity for response to epidemics of zoonotic origin has not been documented. This paper presents a multi-country situational analysis on the institutional frameworks for management of zoonotic epidemics in the Eastern Africa region. METHODS: A multi-country assessment of 6 country teams was conducted (Uganda, Kenya, Tanzania, Ethiopia, DRC and Rwanda). It involved a review of records and interviews with key informants from agencies with a stake in the management of zoonotic and disasters in general in the respective countries. Qualitative data were analyzed for key emerging themes. FINDINGS: There are many socio-cultural risk factors to epidemic prone zoonotic diseases in the region. Countries have varying levels of preparedness for zoonotic emergencies. All 6 countries have a framework for disaster management. However, technical response to epidemics is managed by the line sectors, with limited Inter-sectoral collaboration. Some sectors were disproportionately more prepared than others. Surveillance systems are mostly passive and inadequate for early detection. All 6 countries have built reasonable capacity to respond to avian influenza, but not other zoonotic emergencies. Most countries lack personnel at the operational levels, and veterinary public health services are ill-facilitated. CONCLUSION: There is need to strengthen veterinary public health services at all levels, but with a 'one health' approach. There is also need to establish 'risk-based surveillance' hot spots for zoonotic epidemics and to build community resilience 'epizoonotic' diseases.

Use of the Automated Disaster and Emergency Planning Tool in developing district level public health emergency operating procedures in three East African countries.

BACKGROUND: Sub-Saharan Africa is vulnerable to several natural and man-made disasters. We used the CDC Automated Disaster and Emergency Planning Tool (ADEPT) to develop all-hazards disaster management plans at district level in three eastern African countries. METHODS: During July 2008-February 2011, we used the automated disaster and emergency planning tool to conduct training on disaster planning and management in the three east African countries namely Kenya, Tanzania and Uganda. We trained district disaster teams per country. We held 7 trainings in Tanzania, 8 in Uganda and 10 in Kenya respectively. The district disaster management teams trained comprised five district administrative personnel and a national Red Cross officer. The training took 5 days. RESULTS: A total of 100 districts teams (40 in Uganda and 35 in Kenya and Tanzania respectively) were trained using the ADEPT and consequently 100 district disaster response plans were developed during 2008-2011. A total 814 district disaster team members from these districts were trained. Our experience has shown that the Automated Disaster Emergency Planning Tool is a relatively quick, easy, practical, participatory and inexpensive approach to developing emergency operating plans at the sub-national (district) level. CONCLUSIONS: The ADEPT can be used relatively easily, quickly and inexpensively at the sub-national levels to develop emergency operating procedures to improve disaster management. Although the ADEPT enables district disaster response teams to generate their disaster response plans, the use of the ADEPT may be hampered by lack of computer skills and knowledge of MS computer programme by district personnel in resource limited settings.

Regional approach to building operational level capacity for disaster planning: the case of the Eastern Africa region.

BACKGROUND: The Eastern Africa region is regularly affected by a variety of disasters ranging from drought, to human conflict and population displacement. The magnitude of emergencies and response capacities is similar across the region. In order to strengthen public health disaster management capacities at the operational level in six countries of the Eastern Africa region, the USAID-funded leadership project worked through the HEALTH Alliance, a network of seven schools of public health from six countries in the region to train district-level teams. OBJECTIVES: To develop a sustainable regional approach to building operational level capacity for disaster planning. METHODS: This project was implemented through a higher education leadership initiative. Project activities were spear-headed by a network of Deans and Directors of public health schools within local universities in the Eastern Africa region. The leadership team envisioned a district-oriented systems change strategy. Pre-service and in-service curricula were developed regionally and district teams were formed to attend short training courses. Project activities began with a situational analysis of the disaster management capacity at national and operational levels. The next steps were chronologically the formation of country training teams and training of trainers, the development of a regional disaster management training curriculum and training materials, the cascading of training activities in the region, and the incorporation of emerging issues into the training curriculum. An evaluation model included the analysis of preparedness impact of the training program. RESULTS: The output from the district teams was the creation of individual district-level disaster plans and their implementation. This 4-year project focused on building operational level public health emergency response capacity, which had not previously been part of any national program. Use of the all-hazard approach rather than a scenario-based contingency planning led to the development of a standardized curriculum for training both in-service and pre-service personnel. Materials developed during the implementation phases of the project have been incorporated into public health graduate curricula in the seven schools. This systems-based strategy resulted in demonstrable outcomes related to district preparedness and university engagement in disaster management. CONCLUSION: University partnerships are an effective method to build district-level disaster planning capacity. Use of a regional network created a standardized approach across six countries.

Hypothesis: Impregnated school uniforms reduce the incidence of dengue infections in school children.

Dengue infection causes a significant economic, social and medical burden in affected populations in over 100 countries in the tropics and sub-tropics. Current dengue control efforts have generally focused on vector control but have not shown major impact. School-aged children are especially vulnerable to infection, due to sustained human-vector-human transmission in the close proximity environments of schools. Infection in children has a higher rate of complications, including dengue hemorrhagic fever and shock syndromes, than infections in adults. There is an urgent need for integrated and complementary population-based strategies to protect vulnerable children. We hypothesize that insecticide-treated school uniforms will reduce the incidence of dengue in school-aged children. The hypothesis would need to be tested in a community based randomized trial. If proven to be true, insecticide-treated school uniforms would be a cost-effective and scalable community based strategy to reduce the burden of dengue in children.

Tsunami-related injury in Aceh Province, Indonesia.

The Asian tsunami, of December 2004, caused widespread loss of life. A series of surveys were conducted to assess tsunami-related mortality and injury, risk factors, care seeking and injury outcomes. Three surveys of tsunami-affected populations, in seven districts of Aceh province, were conducted between March and August 2005. Surveys employed a two-stage cluster design and probability proportional to size sampling methods. Overall, 17.7% (95% confidence interval (CI)=16.8-18.6) of the population was reported as dead/missing1 and 8.5% (95% CI=7.9-9.2) had been injured. Odds of mortality were 1.41% (95% CI=1.27-1.58) times greater in females than in males; risk of injury was opposite, with an odds of injury of 0.81 (95% CI=0.61-0.96) for females in comparison to males. Mortality was greatest among the oldest and young population sub-groups, and injuries were most prevalent among middle-aged populations (20-49). An estimated 25,572 people were injured and 3682 (1.2%) suffered lasting disabilities. While mortality was particularly elevated among females and among the youngest and oldest age groups, injury rates were the greatest among males and the working-age population, suggesting that those are more likely to survive the tsunami were also more likely to be injured.

Economic evaluation of Mectizan distribution.

The distribution of ivermectin has dramatically altered the nature of onchocerciasis control. Existing economic analyses of ivermectin distribution programmes show that these programmes have a highly beneficial impact. Most analyses have estimated the economic benefits in terms of increased labour productivity as a result of reductions in blindness, and in terms of additional land-availability because of a reduced transmission of the parasite. Economic evaluations of the Onchocerciasis Control Program (OPC) in West Africa have calculated a net present value - equivalent discounted benefits minus discounted costs - of $485 million for the programme over a 39-year period, using a conservative 10% rate to discount future health and productivity gains. The net present value for the African Program for Onchocerciasis Control (APOC) is calculated at 88 million US dollars over a 21-year time period, also using a 10% discount rate. Cost-effectiveness analyses of ivermectin distribution have found a cost of 14-30 US dollars per disability-adjusted life-year prevented - estimates comparable with other priority disease control programmes. However, the economic success of ivermectin distribution is sensitive to the fact that the drug itself has been donated free of charge. The market value of Merck's donations to the APOC for just 1 year considerably outweighs the benefits calculated for both the OPC and the APOC over the life of these projects. Pending the development of an effective macrofilaricide, the distribution of ivermectin will remain a public health priority into the foreseeable future.

The delivery of ivermectin (Mectizan).

Over a comparatively short period of time, the development and distribution of ivermectin (Mectizan) has radically altered the consequences of infection with Onchocerca volvulus. To achieve this required the fostering of many partnerships and the development of new tools and methods. The long-term commitment of Merck, the World Bank and other sponsors, as well as governments and non-governmental organizations, has been crucial. Yet the enthusiasm with which communities have taken up the delivery of ivermectin among themselves is perhaps the greatest reason for the success of this programme. The present challenge is sustaining the methods that have brought success so far, and making them part of health services and disease control programmes in some of the world's most impoverished and unstable areas. A major part of this challenge is continuing the commitment to controlling onchocerciasis as memory of the disease is fading, and while the hope of elimination or eradication for most endemic countries remains distant.

User fees, health staff incentives, and service utilization in Kabarole District, Uganda.

OBJECTIVE: To determine the impact of user fees on the utilization of health services in a community-based cost-sharing scheme in Kabarole District, western Uganda. METHODS: Of the 38 government health units that had introduced user-fee financing schemes, 11 were included in the study. Outpatient utilization was assessed as the median number of visits per month before and after cost sharing began. FINDINGS: After the introduction of cost sharing, overall utilization of general outpatient services, assessed by combining the data from all the participating units, dropped by 21.3%. Utilization increased, however, in facilities located in remote areas, while it decreased in those located in urban or semi-urban areas. The increased utilization in remote facilities was considered to be largely attributable to health workers' incentive payments derived from cost-sharing revenues. CONCLUSIONS: Incentive payments led the health workers to offer improved services. Other factors may also have been influential, such as an improved drug supply to health facilities and increased public identification with community projects in remote areas.

The accuracy of mortality reporting in displaced persons camps during the post-emergency phase.

For humanitarian organisations, accurate data are essential to identify emerging health problems and determine programme needs. We visited 45 post-emergency phase displaced persons camps and collected three months' mortality data which we compared with organisations' routine mortality reports. Organisations reported 612 deaths and we identified 741 deaths, for a mortality-reporting ratio, defined as the number of organisation-reported deaths divided by the number of investigator-identified deaths, of 83 per cent. For the majority of camps which under-reported deaths, mortality reporting ratios were significantly higher for women than men, and for camps with central mortality registers rather than those without. In the few camps which over-reported deaths, these occurred primarily among children younger than five years of age, probably due to the inclusion of abortions and stillbirths. Despite the overall under-reporting of deaths by humanitarian organisations, the existing health information systems appear to estimate mortality rates adequately in these post-emergency camps. However, organisations should improve the precision and completeness with which they report the characteristics of deaths in order to provide valuable data to target their programmes at the most vulnerable people.

Emerging issues and future needs in humanitarian assistance.

During the past two decades, there has been tremendous investment in the ability to intervene in disaster settings, and significant barriers remain to providing appropriate services to populations affected by natural and man-made calamities. Many of the barriers to providing effective assistance exist within the NGO community, and illustrate emerging needs for international agencies. These emerging needs include improving methods of recipient participation to promote the local health system, developing improved methods for quality assurance, enhancing options for personnel development, and addressing long-term needs of reconstruction and rehabilitation. Relief agencies face challenges on all levels to develop sound practices in providing humanitarian assistance that can lead to long-term benefits to populations affected by disaster.

Demographic methods to assess food insecurity: a North Korean case study.

UNLABELLED: In complex emergencies, especially those involving famine and/or widespread food insecurity, assessments of malnutrition are critical to understanding the population's health status and to assessing the effectiveness of relief interventions. Although the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) has benefited from some of the largest, most sustained appeals in the history of the World Food Program (WFP), the government in Pyongyang has placed restrictions on international efforts to gather data on the health and nutritional status of the affected population. QUESTION: Lacking direct means to assess the nutritional status of the North Korean populace, what other methodologies could be employed to measure the public health impacts of chronic food shortage? The paper begins with a review of methods for assessing nutritional status, particularly in emergencies; a brief history of the North Korean food crisis (1995-2001), and a review of the available nutritional and health data on the DPRK. The main focus of the paper is on the results of a survey of 2,692 North Korean adult migrants in China. Recognizing certain biases and limitations, the study suggests that sample households have experienced an overall decline in food security, as evidenced by both the decline in government rations from an average of 120 grams per person per day to less than 60 grams per day, and by the increase in the percentage of households relying on foraging or bartering of assets as their principal source of food. It also is apparent that the period 1995-1998 has been marked by elevated household mortality, declining fertility, and steadily rising out-migration. Taken together, the signs point toward famine, whether that is defined as a discrete event--that is, as a regional failure in food production or distribution leading to elevated mortality from starvation and associated disease--or as a more complex social process whose sub-states include not only elevated mortality, but declining fertility, eating of alternative 'famine foods', transfer of assets, and the uprooting and separation of families.