Global, Regional, and National Estimates of Rotavirus Mortality in Children <5 Years of Age, 2000-2013.

BACKGROUND: Rotavirus vaccine is recommended for routine use in all countries globally. To facilitate decision making on rotavirus vaccine adoption by countries, help donors prioritize investments in health interventions, and monitor vaccine impact, we estimated rotavirus mortality for children <5 years of age from 2000 to 2013. METHODS: We searched PubMed using the keyword "rotavirus" to identify studies that met each of the following criteria: data collection midpoint in year 1998 or later, study period of a 12-month increment, and detection of rotavirus infection by enzyme immunoassay in at least 100 children <5 years of age who were hospitalized with diarrhea and systematically enrolled through active surveillance. We also included data from countries that participated in the World Health Organization (WHO)-coordinated rotavirus surveillance network between 2008 and 2013 that met these criteria. To predict the proportion of diarrhea due to rotavirus, we constructed a multiple linear regression model. To determine the number of rotavirus deaths in children <5 years of age from 2000 to 2013, we multiplied annual, country-specific estimates of the proportion of diarrhea due to rotavirus from the regression model by the annual number of WHO-estimated child deaths caused by diarrhea in each country. RESULTS: Globally, we estimated that the number of rotavirus deaths in children <5 years of age declined from 528 000 (range, 465 000-591 000) in 2000 to 215 000 (range, 197 000-233 000) in 2013. The predicted annual rotavirus detection rate from these studies declined slightly over time from 42.5% (95% confidence interval [CI], 37.4%-47.5%) in 2000 to 37.3% (95% CI, 34.2%-40.5%) in 2013 globally. In 2013, an estimated 47 100 rotavirus deaths occurred in India, 22% of all rotavirus deaths that occurred globally. Four countries (India, Nigeria, Pakistan, and Democratic Republic of Congo) accounted for approximately half (49%) of all estimated rotavirus deaths in 2013. DISCUSSION: While rotavirus vaccine had been introduced in >60 countries worldwide by the end of 2013, the majority of countries using rotavirus vaccine during the review period were low-mortality countries and the impact of rotavirus vaccine on global estimates of rotavirus mortality has been limited. Continued monitoring of rotavirus mortality rates and deaths through rotavirus surveillance will aid in monitoring the impact of vaccination.

Serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D: a predictor of macrovascular and microvascular complications in patients with type 2 diabetes.

OBJECTIVE: People with diabetes frequently develop vascular disease. We investigated the relationship between blood 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25OH-D) concentration and vascular disease risk in type 2 diabetes. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: The relationships between blood 25OH-D concentration at baseline and the incidence of macrovascular (including myocardial infarction and stroke) and microvascular (retinopathy, nephropathy, neuropathy, and amputation) disease were analyzed with Cox proportional hazards models and logistic regression in an observational study of patients in the 5-year Fenofibrate Intervention and Event Lowering in Diabetes trial. RESULTS: A total of 50% of the patients had low vitamin D concentrations, as indicated by median blood 25OH-D concentration of 49 nmol/L. These patients with a blood 25OH-D concentration <50 nmol/L had a higher cumulative incidence of macrovascular and microvascular events than those with levels ≥50 nmol/L. Multivariate analysis, stratified by treatment and adjusted for relevant confounders, identified blood 25OH-D concentration as an independent predictor of macrovascular events. A 50 nmol/L difference in blood 25OH-D concentration was associated with a 23% (P = 0.007) change in risk of macrovascular complications during the study, and further adjustments for seasonality, hs-CRP, and physical activity level had little impact. The unadjusted risk of microvascular complications was 18% (P = 0.006) higher during the study, though the excess risk declined to 11-14% and lost significance with adjustment for HbA1c, seasonality, or physical activity. CONCLUSIONS: Low blood 25OH-D concentrations are associated with an increased risk of macrovascular and microvascular disease events in type 2 diabetes. However, a causal link remains to be demonstrated.

Reactogenicity and immunogenicity of inactivated poliovirus vaccine produced from Sabin strains: a phase I Trial in healthy adults in Cuba.

BACKGROUND: To ensure that developing countries have the option to produce inactivated poliovirus vaccine (IPV), the Global Polio Eradication Initiative has promoted the development of an IPV using Sabin poliovirus strains (Sabin IPV). This trial assessed the reactogenicity and immunogenicity of Sabin IPV and adjuvanted Sabin IPV in healthy adults in Cuba. METHODS: This is a randomized, controlled phase I trial, enrolling 60 healthy (previously vaccinated) male human volunteers, aged 19-23 years to receive one dose of either Sabin IPV (20:32:64 DU/dose), adjuvanted Sabin IPV (10:16:32 DU/dose), or conventional Salk IPV (40:8:32 DU/dose). The primary endpoint for reactogenicity relied on monitoring of adverse events. The secondary endpoint measured boosting immune responses (i.e. seroconversion or 4-fold rise) of poliovirus antibody, assessed by neutralization assays. RESULTS: Sixty subjects fulfilled the study requirements. No serious adverse events reported were attributed to trial interventions during the 6-month follow-up period. Twenty-eight days after vaccination, boosting immune responses against poliovirus types 1-3 were between 90% and 100% in all vaccination groups. There was a more than 6-fold increase in median antibody titers between pre- and post-vaccination titers in all vaccination groups. DISCUSSION: Both Sabin IPV and adjuvanted Sabin IPV were well tolerated and immunogenic against all poliovirus serotypes. This result suggests that the aluminum adjuvant may allow a 50% (or higher) dose reduction.

Is enough attention given to climate change in health service planning? An Australian perspective.

BACKGROUND: Within an Australian context, the medium to long-term health impacts of climate change are likely to be wide, varied and amplify many existing disorders and health inequities. How the health system responds to these challenges will be best considered in the context of existing health facilities and services. This paper provides a snapshot of the understanding that Australian health planners have of the potential health impacts of climate change. METHODS: The first author interviewed (n=16) health service planners from five Australian states and territories using an interpretivist paradigm. All interviews were digitally recorded, key components transcribed and thematically analysed. RESULTS: Results indicate that the majority of participants were aware of climate change but not of its potential health impacts. Despite this, most planners were of the opinion that they would need to plan for the health impacts of climate change on the community. CONCLUSION: With the best available evidence pointing towards there being significant health impacts as a result of climate change, now is the time to undertake proactive service planning that address market failures within the health system. If considered planning is not undertaken then Australian health system can only deal with climate change in an expensive ad hoc, crisis management manner. Without meeting the challenges of climate change to the health system head on, Australia will remain unprepared for the health impacts of climate change with negative consequences for the health of the Australian population.

Intestinal immunity is a determinant of clearance of poliovirus after oral vaccination.

BACKGROUND: Response to challenge with live, attenuated, oral polio vaccine (OPV) is a measure of immunity induced by prior immunization. METHODS: Using stool samples from a study from Oman in which an initial schedule of inactivated polio vaccine (IPV) was followed by an OPV type 1 challenge, we quantitated virus shed, sequenced capsid proteins of recovered virus, and developed assays for neutralization of poliovirus and mucosal immunoglobulin A (IgA) detection. RESULTS: Neutralizing activity correlated with detection of polio-specific IgA in stool suspensions collected 7 days after OPV type 1 challenge. Both neutralization and IgA in stool were associated with cessation of virus shedding by day 7. Rapid development of an IgA response with cessation of shedding suggests that IPV primed for the early response to challenge. Correlation of neutralization activity and IgA detection provides evidence that polio-specific IgA intestinal antibody is a determinant of mucosal shedding/transmission and that IgA functions through neutralization of virus. In contrast, neither presence nor quantity of serum or intestinal antibody induced by IPV prior to challenge correlated with cessation of shedding. CONCLUSIONS: These assays provide an opportunity to study other immunization schedules to gain a broader understanding of the appearance and duration of a protective mucosal response to polio vaccination.

Priming after a fractional dose of inactivated poliovirus vaccine.

BACKGROUND: To reduce the costs of maintaining a poliovirus immunization base in low-income areas, we assessed the extent of priming immune responses after the administration of inactivated poliovirus vaccine (IPV). METHODS: We compared the immunogenicity and reactogenicity of a fractional dose of IPV (one fifth of a full dose) administered intradermally with a full dose administered intramuscularly in Cuban infants at the ages of 4 and 8 months. Blood was collected from infants at the ages of 4 months, 8 months, 8 months 7 days, and 8 months 30 days to assess single-dose seroconversion, single-dose priming of immune responses, and two-dose seroconversion. Specimens were tested with a neutralization assay. RESULTS: A total of 320 infants underwent randomization, and 310 infants (96.9%) fulfilled the study requirements. In the group receiving the first fractional dose of IPV, seroconversion to poliovirus types 1, 2, and 3 occurred in 16.6%, 47.1%, and 14.7% of participants, respectively, as compared with 46.6%, 62.8%, and 32.0% in the group receiving the first full dose of IPV (P<0.008 for all comparisons). A priming immune response to poliovirus types 1, 2, and 3 occurred in 90.8%, 94.0%, and 89.6% of participants, respectively, in the group receiving the fractional dose as compared with 97.6%, 98.3%, and 98.1% in the group receiving the full dose (P=0.01 for the comparison with type 3). After the administration of the second dose of IPV in the group receiving fractional doses, cumulative two-dose seroconversion to poliovirus types 1, 2, and 3 occurred in 93.6%, 98.1%, and 93.0% of participants, respectively, as compared with 100.0%, 100.0%, and 99.4% in the group receiving the full dose (P<0.006 for the comparisons of types 1 and 3). The group receiving intradermal injections had the greatest number of adverse events, most of which were minor in intensity and none of which had serious consequences. CONCLUSIONS: This evaluation shows that vaccinating infants with a single fractional dose of IPV can induce priming and seroconversion in more than 90% of immunized infants. (Funded by the World Health Organization and the Pan American Health Organization; Australian New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry number, ACTRN12610001046099.).

A formal representation of the WHO and UNICEF estimates of national immunization coverage: a computational logic approach.

Production of official statistics frequently requires expert judgement to evaluate and reconcile data of unknown and varying quality from multiple and potentially conflicting sources. Moreover, exceptional events may be difficult to incorporate in modelled estimates. Computational logic provides a methodology and tools for incorporating analyst's judgement, integrating multiple data sources and modelling methods, ensuring transparency and replicability, and making documentation computationally accessible. Representations using computational logic can be implemented in a variety of computer-based languages for automated production. Computational logic complements standard mathematical and statistical techniques and extends the flexibility of mathematical and statistical modelling. A basic overview of computational logic is presented and its application to official statistics is illustrated with the WHO & UNICEF estimates of national immunization coverage.

Human health and climate change: leverage points for adaptation in urban environments.

The design of adaptation strategies that promote urban health and well-being in the face of climate change requires an understanding of the feedback interactions that take place between the dynamical state of a city, the health of its people, and the state of the planet. Complexity, contingency and uncertainty combine to impede the growth of such systemic understandings. In this paper we suggest that the collaborative development of conceptual models can help a group to identify potential leverage points for effective adaptation. We describe a three-step procedure that leads from the development of a high-level system template, through the selection of a problem space that contains one or more of the group's adaptive challenges, to a specific conceptual model of a sub-system of importance to the group. This procedure is illustrated by a case study of urban dwellers' maladaptive dependence on private motor vehicles. We conclude that a system dynamics approach, revolving around the collaborative construction of a set of conceptual models, can help communities to improve their adaptive capacity, and so better meet the challenge of maintaining, and even improving, urban health in the face of climate change.

Assessment of the 2010 global measles mortality reduction goal: results from a model of surveillance data.

BACKGROUND: In 2008 all WHO member states endorsed a target of 90% reduction in measles mortality by 2010 over 2000 levels. We developed a model to estimate progress made towards this goal. METHODS: We constructed a state-space model with population and immunisation coverage estimates and reported surveillance data to estimate annual national measles cases, distributed across age classes. We estimated deaths by applying age-specific and country-specific case-fatality ratios to estimated cases in each age-country class. FINDINGS: Estimated global measles mortality decreased 74% from 535,300 deaths (95% CI 347,200-976,400) in 2000 to 139,300 (71,200-447,800) in 2010. Measles mortality was reduced by more than three-quarters in all WHO regions except the WHO southeast Asia region. India accounted for 47% of estimated measles mortality in 2010, and the WHO African region accounted for 36%. INTERPRETATION: Despite rapid progress in measles control from 2000 to 2007, delayed implementation of accelerated disease control in India and continued outbreaks in Africa stalled momentum towards the 2010 global measles mortality reduction goal. Intensified control measures and renewed political and financial commitment are needed to achieve mortality reduction targets and lay the foundation for future global eradication of measles. FUNDING: US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (PMS 5U66/IP000161).

Randomized trial of type 1 and type 3 oral monovalent poliovirus vaccines in newborns in Africa.

BACKGROUND: The Global Polio Eradication Initiative aims to eradicate wild poliovirus by the end of 2012. Therefore, more-immunogenic polio vaccines, including monovalent oral poliovirus vaccines (mOPVs), are needed for supplemental immunization activities. This trial assessed the immunogenicity of monovalent types 1 and 3, compared with that of trivalent oral poliovirus vaccine (tOPV), in South Africa. METHODS: We conducted a blinded, randomized, 4-arm controlled trial comparing the immunogenicity of a single dose of mOPV1 (from 2 manufacturers) and mOPV3 (from 1 manufacturer), given at birth, with the immunogenicity of tOPV. RESULTS: Eight hundred newborns were enrolled; 762 (95%) were included in the analysis. At 30 days after vaccine administration, seroconversion to poliovirus type 1 was 73.4% and 76.4% in the 2 mOPV1 arms, compared with 39.1% in the tOPV arm (P < .0000001), and seroconversion to poliovirus type 3 was 58.0% in the mOPV3 arm, compared with 21.2% in the tOPV arm (P < .0000001). The vaccines were well tolerated, and no adverse events were attributed to trial interventions. CONCLUSION: A dose of mOPV1 or mOPV3 at birth was superior to that of tOPV in inducing type-specific seroconversion in this sub-Saharan African population. Our results support continued use of mOPVs in supplemental immunization activities in countries where poliovirus types 1 or 3 circulate. Clinical Trials Registration. ISRCTN18107202.

Immunogenicity of supplemental doses of poliovirus vaccine for children aged 6-9 months in Moradabad, India: a community-based, randomised controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: The continued presence of polio in northern India poses challenges to the interruption of wild poliovirus transmission and the management of poliovirus risks in the post-eradication era. We aimed to assess the current immunity profile after routine doses of trivalent oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV) and numerous supplemental doses of type-1 monovalent OPV (mOPV1), and compared the effect of five vaccine formulations and dosages on residual immunity gaps. METHODS: We did a community-based, randomised controlled trial of healthy infants aged 6-9 months at ten sites in Moradabad, India. Serum neutralising antibody was measured before infants were randomly assigned to a study group and given standard-potency or higher-potency mOPV1, intradermal fractional-dose inactivated poliovirus vaccine (IPV, GlaxoSmithKline), or intramuscular full-dose IPV from two different manufacturers (GlaxoSmithKline or Panacea). Follow-up sera were taken at days 7 and 28. Our primary endpoint was an increase of more than four times in antibody titres. We did analyses by per-protocol in children with a blood sample available before, and 28 days after, receiving study vaccine (or who completed study procedures). This trial is registered with Current Controlled Trials, number ISRCTN90744784. FINDINGS: Of 1002 children enrolled, 869 (87%) completed study procedures (ie, blood sample available at day 0 and day 28). At baseline, 862 (99%), 625 (72%), and 418 (48%) had detectable antibodies to poliovirus types 1, 2, and 3, respectively. In children who were type-1 seropositive, an increase of more than four times in antibody titre was detected 28 days after they were given standard-potency mOPV1 (5/13 [38%]), higher-potency mOPV1 (6/21 [29%]), intradermal IPV (9/16 [56%]), GlaxoSmithKline intramuscular IPV (19/22 [86%]), and Panacea intramuscular IPV (11/13 [85%]). In those who were type-2 seronegative, 42 (100%) of 42 seroconverted after GlaxoSmithKline intramuscular IPV, and 24 (59%) of 41 after intradermal IPV (p<0·0001). 87 (90%) of 97 infants who were type-3 seronegative seroconverted after intramuscular IPV, and 21 (36%) of 49 after intradermal IPV (p<0·0001). INTERPRETATION: Supplemental mOPV1 resulted in almost total seroprevalence against poliovirus type 1, which is consistent with recent absence of poliomyelitis cases; whereas seroprevalence against types 2 and 3 was expected for routine vaccination histories. The immunogenicity of IPV produced in India (Panacea) was similar to that of an internationally manufactured IPV (GSK). Intradermal IPV was less immunogenic.

2008 estimate of worldwide rotavirus-associated mortality in children younger than 5 years before the introduction of universal rotavirus vaccination programmes: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: WHO recommends routine use of rotavirus vaccines in all countries, particularly in those with high mortality attributable to diarrhoeal diseases. To establish the burden of life-threatening rotavirus disease before the introduction of a rotavirus vaccine, we aimed to update the estimated number of deaths worldwide in children younger than 5 years due to diarrhoea attributable to rotavirus infection. METHODS: We used PubMed to identify studies of at least 100 children younger than 5 years who had been admitted to hospital with diarrhoea. Additionally, we required the studies to have a data collection midpoint of the year 2000 or later, to be done in full-year increments, and to assesses diarrhoea attributable to rotavirus with EIAs or polyacrylamide gel electrophoresis. We also included data from countries that participated in the WHO-coordinated Global Rotavirus Surveillance Network (consisting of participating member states during 2009) and that met study criteria. For countries that have introduced a rotavirus vaccine into their national immunisation programmes, we excluded data subsequent to the introduction. We classified studies into one of five groups on the basis of region and the level of child mortality in the country in which the study was done. For each group, to obtain estimates of rotavirus-associated mortality, we multiplied the random-effect mean rotavirus detection rate by the 2008 diarrhoea-related mortality figures for countries in that group. We derived the worldwide mortality estimate by summing our regional estimates. FINDINGS: Worldwide in 2008, diarrhoea attributable to rotavirus infection resulted in 453,000 deaths (95% CI 420,000-494,000) in children younger than 5 years-37% of deaths attributable to diarrhoea and 5% of all deaths in children younger than 5 years. Five countries accounted for more than half of all deaths attributable to rotavirus infection: Democratic Republic of the Congo, Ethiopia, India, Nigeria, and Pakistan; India alone accounted for 22% of deaths (98,621 deaths). INTERPRETATION: Introduction of effective and available rotavirus vaccines could substantially affect worldwide deaths attributable to diarrhoea. Our new estimates can be used to advocate for rotavirus vaccine introduction and to monitor the effect of vaccination on mortality once introduced.

A mid-term assessment of progress towards the immunization coverage goal of the Global Immunization Vision and Strategy (GIVS).

BACKGROUND: The Global Immunization Vision and Strategy (GIVS) (2006-2015) aims to reach and sustain high levels of vaccine coverage, provide immunization services to age groups beyond infancy and to those currently not reached, and to ensure that immunization activities are linked with other health interventions and contribute to the overall development of the health sector. OBJECTIVE: To examine mid-term progress (through 2010) of the immunization coverage goal of the GIVS for 194 countries or territories with special attention to data from 68 countries which account for more than 95% of all maternal and child deaths. METHODS: We present national immunization coverage estimates for the third dose of diphtheria and tetanus toxoid with pertussis (DTP3) vaccine and the first dose of measles containing vaccine (MCV) during 2000, 2005 and 2010 and report the average annual relative percent change during 2000-2005 and 2005-2010. Data are taken from the WHO and UNICEF estimates of national immunization coverage, which refer to immunizations given during routine immunization services to children less than 12 months of age where immunization services are recorded. RESULTS: Globally DTP3 coverage increased from 74% during 2000 to 85% during 2010, and MCV coverage increased from 72% during 2000 to 85% during 2010. A total of 149 countries attained or were on track to achieve the 90% coverage goal for DTP3 (147 countries for MCV coverage). DTP3 coverage ≥ 90% was sustained between 2005 and 2010 by 99 countries (98 countries for MCV). Among 68 priority countries, 28 countries were identified as having made either insufficient or no progress towards reaching the GIVS goal of 90% coverage by 2015 for DTP3 or MCV. DTP3 and MCV coverage remained < 70% during 2010 for 16 and 21 priority countries, respectively. CONCLUSION: Progress towards GIVS goals highlights improvements in routine immunization coverage, yet it is troubling to observe priority countries with little or no progress during the past five years. These results highlight that further efforts are needed to achieve and maintain the global immunization coverage goals.

Monovalent type 1 oral poliovirus vaccine among infants in India: report of two randomized double-blind controlled clinical trials.

BACKGROUND: To provide the polio eradication initiative with more immunogenic oral poliovirus vaccines (OPVs), we evaluated newly developed monovalent type 1 OPV (mOPV1) among infants in India. METHODS: Two double-blind randomized controlled clinical trials compared two mOPV1s (mOPV1 A and mOPV1 B) versus trivalent OPV (tOPV X) given at birth (trial I), or assessed two products of higher-potency mOPV1 (mOPV1 C and mOPV1 D) versus regular-potency mOPV1 (mOPV1 B) or tOPV Y given at birth and at 30 days (trial II). RESULTS: In trial I, 597 newborns were enrolled, 66 withdrawn or excluded, leaving 531 (88.9%) subjects for analysis. Seroconversion to poliovirus type 1 was 10.4% for mOPV1 A, 15.6% for mOPV1 B and 10.2% for tOPV X. In trial II, 718 newborns were enrolled, 135 withdrawn or excluded, leaving 583 (81.2%) subjects for analysis. Seroconversion to poliovirus type 1 following a birth dose was 15.1%, 19.7%, 18.0% and 10.6%, following the 30-day dose 87.1%, 89.2%, 84.4%, or 55.9%, and cumulative for both doses 90.4%, 90.3%, 89.5% and 61.9% for mOPV1s B, C, and D and tOPV Y, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: In both studies, seronconversion rates were unexpectedly low to poliovirus type 1 after mOPV1 or tOPV given at birth but high for all formulations of mOPV1 given at age 30 days. The cause for low immunogenicity of OPV at birth in India is not known.

Accounting for model uncertainty in estimating global burden of disease.

OBJECTIVE: To illustrate the effects of failing to account for model uncertainty when modelling is used to estimate the global burden of disease, with specific application to childhood deaths from rotavirus infection. METHODS: To estimate the global burden of rotavirus infection, different random-effects meta-analysis and meta-regression models were constructed by varying the stratification criteria and including different combinations of covariates. Bayesian model averaging was used to combine the results across models and to provide a measure of uncertainty that reflects the choice of model and the sampling variability. FINDINGS: In the models examined, the estimated number of child deaths from rotavirus infection varied between 492,000 and 664,000. While averaging over the different models' estimates resulted in a modest increase in the estimated number of deaths (541,000 as compared with the World Health Organization's estimate of 527,000), the width of the 95% confidence interval increased from 105,000 to 198,000 deaths when model uncertainty was taken into account. CONCLUSION: Sampling variability explains only a portion of the overall uncertainty in a modelled estimate. The uncertainty owing to both the sampling variability and the choice of model(s) should be given when disease burden results are presented. Failure to properly account for uncertainty in disease burden estimates may lead to inappropriate uses of the estimates and inaccurate prioritization of global health needs.

Climate change and health in the urban environment: adaptation opportunities in Australian cities.

Urban populations are growing rapidly throughout the Asia-Pacific region. Cities are vulnerable to the health impacts of climate change because of their concentration of people and infrastructure, the physical (geographical, material, and structural) attributes of the built environment, and the ecological interdependence with the urban ecosystem. Australia is one of the most highly urbanized countries in the region and its already variable climate is set to become hotter and drier with climate change. Climate change in Australia is expected to increase morbidity and mortality from thermal stress, bacterial gastroenteritis, vector-borne disease, air pollution, flooding, and bushfires. The cost and availability of fresh water, food, and energy will also likely be affected. The more vulnerable urban populations, including the elderly, socioeconomically disadvantaged groups, and those with underlying chronic disease, will be most affected. Adaptation strategies need to address this underlying burden of disease and inequity as well as implement broad structural changes to building codes and urban design, and infrastructure capacity. In doing so, cities provide opportunities to realize "co-benefits" for health (eg, from increased levels of physical activity and improved air quality). With evidence that climate change is underway, the need for cities to be a focus in the development of climate adaptation strategies is becoming more urgent.

Avoiding complacency and maintaining progress in routine immunization.

A review of estimated coverage with three doses of diphtheria, tetanus, pertussis vaccine (DTP3) suggests many countries will not meet the Global Immunization Vision and Strategy (GIVS) goal to increase national immunization coverage levels to at least 90% by 2010 and to sustain these levels through at least 2015. In fact, 42% of low-income countries have made insufficient or no progress towards the goal, compared to 8% of high-income countries. Despite enormous and increasingly successful efforts to address the global burden of vaccine-preventable diseases and extraordinary improvements in universal childhood immunization, opportunities remain to improve routine immunization coverage globally.