Modelling blue carbon farming opportunities at different spatial scales.

There is a growing interest in including blue carbon ecosystems (i.e., mangroves, tidal marshes and seagrasses) in climate mitigation programs in national and sub-national policies, with restoration and conservation of these ecosystems identified as potential activities to increase carbon accumulation through time. However, there is still a gap on the spatial scales needed to produce carbon offsets comparable with terrestrial or agricultural ecosystems. Here, we used the Coastal Blue Carbon InVEST 3.7.0 model to estimate future net carbon sequestration in blue carbon ecosystems along Australia's Great Barrier Reef (hereafter GBR) catchments, considering different management scenarios (i.e., reintroduction of tidal exchange through the removal of barriers, sea level rise, restoring low lying land) at three different spatial scales: whole GBR coastline, regional (14,000-16,300 ha), and local (335-370 ha) scales. The focus of the restoration (i.e., tidal marshes and/or mangroves) was dependent on data availability for each scenario. Furthermore, we also estimated the monetary value of carbon sequestration under each management scenario and spatial scale assessed in the study. We found that large scale restoration of tidal marshes could potentially sequester an additional ∼800,000 tonnes of CO2e by 2045 (potentially generating AU$12 million based on the average Australia carbon price), with greater opportunities when sea level rise is accounted for in the modelling. Also, we found that regional and local projects would generate up to 23 tonnes CO2e ha-1 by the end of the crediting period. Our results can guide future decisions in the blue carbon market and financing schemes, however, the return on investment is dependent on the carbon price and funding scheme available for project implementation.

Current and future carbon stocks in coastal wetlands within the Great Barrier Reef catchments.

Australia's Great Barrier Reef (GBR) catchments include some of the world's most intact coastal wetlands comprising diverse mangrove, seagrass and tidal marsh ecosystems. Although these ecosystems are highly efficient at storing carbon in marine sediments, their soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks and the potential changes resulting from climate impacts, including sea level rise are not well understood. For the first time, we estimated SOC stocks and their drivers within the range of coastal wetlands of GBR catchments using boosted regression trees (i.e. a machine learning approach and ensemble method for modelling the relationship between response and explanatory variables) and identified the potential changes in future stocks due to sea level rise. We found levels of SOC stocks of mangrove and seagrass meadows have different drivers, with climatic variables such as temperature, rainfall and solar radiation, showing significant contributions in accounting for variation in SOC stocks in mangroves. In contrast, soil type accounted for most of the variability in seagrass meadows. Total SOC stock in the GBR catchments, including mangroves, seagrass meadows and tidal marshes, is approximately 137 Tg C, which represents 9%-13% of Australia's total SOC stock while encompassing only 4%-6% of the total extent of Australian coastal wetlands. In a global context, this could represent 0.5%-1.4% of global SOC stock. Our study suggests that landward migration due to projected sea level rise has the potential to enhance carbon accumulation with total carbon gains between 0.16 and 0.46 Tg C and provides an opportunity for future restoration to enhance blue carbon.

Byzantine-Early Islamic resource management detected through micro-geoarchaeological investigations of trash mounds (Negev, Israel).

Sustainable resource management is of central importance among agrarian societies in marginal drylands. In the Negev Desert, Israel, research on agropastoral resource management during Late Antiquity emphasizes intramural settlement contexts and landscape features. The importance of hinterland trash deposits as diachronic archives of resource use and disposal has been overlooked until recently. Without these data, assessments of community-scale responses to societal, economic, and environmental disruption and reconfiguration remain incomplete. In this study, micro-geoarchaeological investigations were conducted on trash mound features at the Byzantine-Early Islamic sites of Shivta, Elusa, and Nesanna to track spatiotemporal trends in the use and disposal of critical agropastoral resources. Refuse derived sediment deposits were characterized using stratigraphy, micro-remains (i.e., livestock dung spherulites, wood ash pseudomorphs, and plant phytoliths), and mineralogy by Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy. Our investigations detected a turning point in the management of herbivore livestock dung, a vital resource in the Negev. We propose that the scarcity of raw dung proxies in the studied deposits relates to the use of this resource as fuel and agricultural fertilizer. Refuse deposits contained dung ash, indicating the widespread use of dung as a sustainable fuel. Sharply contrasting this, raw dung was dumped and incinerated outside the village of Nessana. We discuss how this local shift in dung management corresponds with a growing emphasis on sedentised herding spurred by newly pressed taxation and declining market-oriented agriculture. Our work is among the first to deal with the role of waste management and its significance to economic strategies and urban development during the late Roman Imperial Period and Late Antiquity. The findings contribute to highlighting top-down societal and economic pressures, rather than environmental degradation, as key factors involved in the ruralisation of the Negev agricultural heartland toward the close of Late Antiquity.

Ancient trash mounds unravel urban collapse a century before the end of Byzantine hegemony in the southern Levant.

The historic event of the Late Antique Little Ice Age (LALIA) was recently identified in dozens of natural and geological climate proxies of the northern hemisphere. Although this climatic downturn was proposed as a major cause for pandemic and extensive societal upheavals in the sixth-seventh centuries CE, archaeological evidence for the magnitude of societal response to this event is sparse. This study uses ancient trash mounds as a type of proxy for identifying societal crisis in the urban domain, and employs multidisciplinary investigations to establish the terminal date of organized trash collection and high-level municipal functioning on a city-wide scale. Survey, excavation, sediment analysis, and geographic information system assessment of mound volume were conducted on a series of mounds surrounding the Byzantine urban settlement of Elusa in the Negev Desert. These reveal the massive collection and dumping of domestic and construction waste over time on the city edges. Carbon dating of charred seeds and charcoal fragments combined with ceramic analysis establish the end date of orchestrated trash removal near the mid-sixth century, coinciding closely with the beginning of the LALIA event and outbreak of the Justinian Plague in the year 541. This evidence for societal decline during the sixth century ties with other arguments for urban dysfunction across the Byzantine Levant at this time. We demonstrate the utility of trash mounds as sensitive proxies of social response and unravel the time-space dynamics of urban collapse, suggesting diminished resilience to rapid climate change in the frontier Negev region of the empire.

Risks to carbon dynamics in semi-arid woodlands of eastern Australia under current and future climates.

Extreme disturbance events, such as wildfire and drought, have large impacts on carbon storage and sequestration of forests and woodlands globally. Here, we present a modelling approach that assesses the relative impact of disturbances on carbon storage and sequestration, and how this will alter under climate change. Our case study is semi-arid Australia where large areas of land are managed to offset over 122 million tonnes of anthropogenic carbon emissions over a 100-year period. These carbon offsets include mature vegetation that has been protected from clearing and regenerating vegetation on degraded agricultural land. We use a Bayesian Network model to combine multiple probabilistic models of the risk posed by fire, drought, grazing and recruitment failure to carbon dynamics. The model is parameterised from a review of relevant literature and additional quantitative analyses presented here. We found that the risk of vegetation becoming a net source of carbon due to a mortality event, or failing to realise maximum sequestration potential, through recruitment failure in regenerating vegetation, was primarily a function of rainfall in this semi-arid environment. However, the relative size of an emissions event varied across vegetation communities depending on plant attributes, specifically resprouting capacity. Modelled climate change effects were variable, depending on the climate change projection used. Under 'best-case' or 'most-likely' climate scenarios for 2050, similar or increased projections of mean annual precipitation, associated with a build-up of fuel, were expected to drive an increase in fire activity (a 40-160% increase), but a decrease in drought (a 20-35% decrease). Under a 'worst-case' climate scenario, fire activity was expected to decline (a 37% decrease), but drought conditions remain similar (a 5% decrease). These projected changes to the frequency of drought and fire increase the risk that vegetation used for carbon offsetting will fail to provide anticipated amounts of carbon abatement over their lifetime.

Formation of Biphasic Hydroxylapatite-Beta Magnesium Tricalcium Phosphate in Heat Treated Salmonid Vertebrae.

Ichthyoarchaeological evidence is uncommon at ancient hunter-gatherer sites from various regions and timeframes. This research contributes to the development of microarchaeological techniques useful for identifying fishing economies in situations where classifiable bones are unavailable. Specifically, traces of heat altered bone mineral in domestic hearths are expected to provide markers for discarded fish remains. We used a series of laboratory incineration experiments to characterize the mineralogy of burned salmonid vertebrae. Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy and x-ray diffraction distinguished the formation of beta magnesium tricalcium phosphate (ßMgTCP) at temperatures as low as 600 °C. Bones from a sample of game mammals and birds did not form this phase at temperatures below 1,000 °C. We propose that this neoformed mineral can serve as a proxy for hunter-gatherer salmonid fishing when typical ichthyoarchaeological evidence is absent. Using Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy, it will be possible to rapidly and inexpensively determine the presence of ßMgTCP in fragmentary burned bone remains associated with combustion features. The occurrence of ßMgTCP in archaeological hearth features will offer a new means of further evaluating the temporal, geographic, and cultural scope of salmonid harvesting. We also acknowledge the value of biphasic hydroxylapatite-ßMgTCP recovered from Atlantic salmon vertebrae as a bioceramic.

Testing the generality of above-ground biomass allometry across plant functional types at the continent scale.

Accurate ground-based estimation of the carbon stored in terrestrial ecosystems is critical to quantifying the global carbon budget. Allometric models provide cost-effective methods for biomass prediction. But do such models vary with ecoregion or plant functional type? We compiled 15 054 measurements of individual tree or shrub biomass from across Australia to examine the generality of allometric models for above-ground biomass prediction. This provided a robust case study because Australia includes ecoregions ranging from arid shrublands to tropical rainforests, and has a rich history of biomass research, particularly in planted forests. Regardless of ecoregion, for five broad categories of plant functional type (shrubs; multistemmed trees; trees of the genus Eucalyptus and closely related genera; other trees of high wood density; and other trees of low wood density), relationships between biomass and stem diameter were generic. Simple power-law models explained 84-95% of the variation in biomass, with little improvement in model performance when other plant variables (height, bole wood density), or site characteristics (climate, age, management) were included. Predictions of stand-based biomass from allometric models of varying levels of generalization (species-specific, plant functional type) were validated using whole-plot harvest data from 17 contrasting stands (range: 9-356 Mg ha(-1) ). Losses in efficiency of prediction were <1% if generalized models were used in place of species-specific models. Furthermore, application of generalized multispecies models did not introduce significant bias in biomass prediction in 92% of the 53 species tested. Further, overall efficiency of stand-level biomass prediction was 99%, with a mean absolute prediction error of only 13%. Hence, for cost-effective prediction of biomass across a wide range of stands, we recommend use of generic allometric models based on plant functional types. Development of new species-specific models is only warranted when gains in accuracy of stand-based predictions are relatively high (e.g. high-value monocultures).

Setbacks to shoot growth are common in woody plants, so how are shoots of some species safer than others?

Tissue turnover is a critical facet of plant life history variation. This study quantifies losses from setbacks to growth of terminal woody shoots 1.2m long, across 83 species and seven sites in eastern Australia. Setbacks, where the leading meristem had been removed or died and a new leader had emerged, were common (median three per shoot). Shoots had lost an average of 0.25 m of lead-stem length for 1.2 m net shoot-length gain. Insects like girdlers and borers were prominent causes of large setbacks. The sites spanned tropical to temperate and humid to semiarid climates, but variation in stem loss was much greater across species than across sites. We measured 17 plant functional traits related to growth form, mechanics, hydraulics, and economics. Only four traits were correlated with variation across species in stem losses: stem diameter, stem nitrogen content, bark thickness, and maximum photosynthetic rate. The correlations were weak. Stem specific gravity (wood density) showed no correlation with risk. Our results suggest a pattern similar to the growth risk trade-off known for herbaceous plants, where traits associated with fast growth increase tissue turnover and herbivory, but the weak correlations leave ample scope for other influences that remain to be identified.

Safety and streamlining of woody shoots in wind: an empirical study across 39 species in tropical Australia.

• Wind is a key mechanical stress for woody plants, so how do shoot traits affect performance in wind? • We used a vehicle mounted apparatus to measure drag, streamlining and mechanical safety in 127 vertical lead-shoots, 1.2 m long, across 39 species in tropical Australia. • Shoot dimensions and stem tissue properties were closely coupled so that shoots with low stem specific gravity or larger projected area had thicker stems. Thicker stems provide larger second moment of area (I), which increased shoot safety and bending stiffness but impeded shoot reconfiguration in strong winds, including frontal area reduction. Nonetheless, increasing I also improved streamlining. Streamlining was unrelated to traits except I. Stem tissue material properties only had small effects. Higher modulus of rupture increased shoot safety and higher Young's modulus impeded shoot reconfiguration. • We found no conflict between bending stiffness and streamlining for woody shoots. Stiffness might help streamlining by increasing damping and stability, thereby reducing flagging in wind. Tissue-level traits did influence shoot-level mechanical safety and behaviour, but shoot geometry was much more important. Variable shoot and stem traits, which all influenced shoot biomechanics, were integrated in shoots to yield a relatively narrow range of outcomes in wind.