Costs and cost-effectiveness of influenza illness and vaccination in low- and middle-income countries: A systematic review from 2012 to 2022.

BACKGROUND: Historically, lack of data on cost-effectiveness of influenza vaccination has been identified as a barrier to vaccine use in low- and middle-income countries. We conducted a systematic review of economic evaluations describing (1) costs of influenza illness; (2) costs of influenza vaccination programs; and (3) vaccination cost-effectiveness from low- and middle-income countries to assess if gaps persist that could hinder global implementation of influenza vaccination programs. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We performed a systematic search in Medline, Embase, Cochrane Library, CINAHL, and Scopus in January 2022 and October 2023 using a combination of the following key words: "influenza" AND "cost" OR "economic." The search included studies with publication years 2012 through 2022. Studies were eligible if they (1) presented original, peer-reviewed findings on cost of illness, cost of vaccination program, or cost-effectiveness of vaccination for seasonal influenza; and (2) included data for at least 1 low- or middle-income country. We abstracted general study characteristics and data specific to each of the 3 study types. Of 54 included studies, 26 presented data on cost-effectiveness, 24 on cost-of-illness, and 5 on program costs. Represented countries were classified as upper-middle income (UMIC; n = 12), lower-middle income (LMIC; n = 7), and low-income (LIC; n = 3). The most evaluated target groups were children (n = 26 studies), older adults (n = 17), and persons with chronic medical conditions (n = 12); fewer studies evaluated pregnant persons (n = 9), healthcare workers (n = 5), and persons in congregate living settings (n = 1). Costs-of-illness were generally higher in UMICs than in LMICs/LICs; however, the highest national economic burden, as a percent of gross domestic product and national health expenditure, was reported from an LIC. Among studies that evaluated the cost-effectiveness of influenza vaccine introduction, most (88%) interpreted at least 1 scenario per target group as either cost-effective or cost-saving, based on thresholds designated in the study. Key limitations of this work included (1) heterogeneity across included studies; (2) restrictiveness of the inclusion criteria used; and (3) potential for missed influenza burden from use of sentinel surveillance systems. CONCLUSIONS: The 54 studies identified in this review suggest an increased momentum to generate economic evidence about influenza illness and vaccination from low- and middle-income countries during 2012 to 2022. However, given that we observed substantial heterogeneity, continued evaluation of the economic burden of influenza illness and costs/cost-effectiveness of influenza vaccination, particularly in LICs and among underrepresented target groups (e.g., healthcare workers and pregnant persons), is needed. Use of standardized methodology could facilitate pooling across settings and knowledge sharing to strengthen global influenza vaccination programs.

Determinants of heterosexual men's demand for long-acting injectable pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) for HIV in urban South Africa.

BACKGROUND: Heterosexual men in South Africa are a large key population to exposure to HIV, yet preferences for HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) among this population have not, to date, been investigated in the literature. This paper aims to explore HIV prevention preferences among heterosexual men in urban South Africa, as well as to examine the demand and characteristics of men who favour long-acting injectable (LAI) PrEP over condoms and oral PrEP. METHODS: Data were collected among 178 self-reported HIV-negative heterosexual men, who were given example products and information before being asked which they preferred. Multivariate logistic regression was used to analyse which characteristics were associated with product choice. RESULTS: 48% (n = 85) of participants preferred LAI PrEP, while 33% (n = 58) and 20% (n = 35) chose oral PrEP and condoms respectively. Having children (marginal effect = 0.22; 95% CI [0.01, 0.44]) or having higher risk attitude scores (marginal effect = 0.03; 95% CI [0.01, 0.06]) was significantly associated with a choice of LAI PrEP, while those who had unprotected anal intercourse (marginal effect = - 0.42; 95% CI [- 0.57, - 0.27]) and those who were concerned with protection against other sexually transmitted infections over HIV (marginal effect = - 0.42; 95% CI [- 0.60, - 0.24]) appeared less likely to prefer LAI PrEP. CONCLUSIONS: The results suggested a relatively high demand and theoretical acceptability for LAI PrEP among heterosexual men in urban South Africa, but there appeared to be fewer distinct predictors for the willingness to use LAI PrEP compared to studies conducted among gay and bisexual men and women. Nevertheless, the findings contribute to the mapping of the demand and determinants of heterosexual men's preferences for novel antiretroviral-based prevention in sub-Saharan Africa, and the data could aid in the differentiated design of future HIV prevention strategies using LAI PrEP in conjunction with other methods.

Correlación del estado nutricional con estadio clínico y factores de riesgo en pacientes cirróticos / Correlation of nutritional state with clinical stadium and risk factors of cirrhotic patients

INTRODUCCIÓN. La malnutrición ha sido una complicación infravalorada en la cirrosis.Constituye un predictor de deterioro clínico y mortalidad. Su identificación y tratamiento oportuno, son claves en la evolución de la enfermedad. OBJETIVO. Determinar el estado nutricional, y su relación con el estadio clínico y factores de riesgo en los pacientes cirróticos. MATERIALES Y MÉTODOS. Estudio correlacional. Universo de 111 pacientes y muestra de 94 pacientes con cirrosis de la Clínica de Higado del Hospital de Especialidades Eugenio Espejo de Quito-Ecuador. Los datos se obtuvieron del Sistema Informático HOSVITAL. Se determinó la circunferencia muscular de brazo y se aplicaron las encuestas Liver Disease Undernutrition Screening Tool y Royal Free Hospital-Nutritional Prioritizing Tool. Se determinó la asociación con el test de Chi Cuadrado. RESULTADOS. Se identificaron 94 pacientes el 40% (38;94) hombres y el 60% (56;94) mujeres. El 52% (49;94) presentó una reserva muscular normal. La encuesta Liver Disease Undernutrition Screening Tool determinó, malnutrición en el 72% (68/94) de los casos y se relacionó de manera estadísticamente significativa con el sexo masculino, tiempo de evolución prolongado, reserva muscular baja y estadio clínico avanzado (p<0.05). La encuesta Royal Free Hospital-Nutritional Prioritizing Tool identificó, alto riesgo de malnutrición, en 36% (34;94) de casos y se relacionó, de manera estadísticamente significativa con encefalopatía hepática, tiempo de evolución prolongado, reserva muscular baja y estadio clínico avanzado (p<0.05). CONCLUSIÓN. Existió correlación entre el estado nutricional con estadio clínico de la cirrosis y los factores de riesgo: sexo masculino, estadio clínico, reserva muscular, tiempo de evolución y encefalopatía hepática.

INTRODUCTION. Malnutrition has been an undervalued complication in cirrhosis. It is a predictor of clinical deterioration and mortality. Its identification and timely treatment are key in the evolution of the disease. OBJECTIVE. To determine the nutritional status, relationship with the clinical stage and risk factors in cirrhotic patients. MATERIALS AND METHODS. Correlation study. Universe of 111patients and sample of 94 cirrhotic patients from the Liver Clinic of the Sspecialties Eugenio Espejo Hospital of Quito-Ecuador. The data was obtained from the HOSVITAL computer system. Arm muscle circumference was determined and the Liver Disease Undernutrition Screening Tool and Royal Free Hospital- Nutritional Prioritizing Tool surveys were applied. RESULTS. 94 patients were identified; 40% (38;94) men and 60% (56;94) women. 52% (49;94) had a normal muscle reserve. The Liver Disease Undernutrition Screening Tool survey determined malnutrition in 72% (68;94) of the cases and was statistically significant in relation to the male sex, prolonged evolution time, low muscle reserve and advanced clinical stage (p <0.05). The Royal Free Hospital-Nutritional Prioritizing Tool survey identified a high risk of malnutrition in 36% (34;94) of cases and was statistically significant in relation to hepatic encephalopathy, prolonged evolution, low muscle reserve and advanced clinical stage (p <0.05). CONCLUSION. There was a correlation between nutritional status with clinical stage of cirrhosis and risk factors: male sex, clinical stage, muscle reserve, time of evolution and hepatic encephalopathy.

Forecasting the Value for Money of Mobile Maternal Health Information Messages on Improving Utilization of Maternal and Child Health Services in Gauteng, South Africa: Cost-Effectiveness Analysis.

BACKGROUND: Limited evidence exists on the value for money of mHealth information programs in low resource settings. OBJECTIVE: This study sought to model the incremental cost-effectiveness of gradually scaling up text messaging services to pregnant women throughout Gauteng province, South Africa from 2012 to 2017. METHODS: Data collection occurred as part of a retrospective study in 6 health centers in Gauteng province. Stage-based short message service (SMS) text messages on maternal health were sent to pregnant women twice per week during pregnancy and continued until the infant's first birthday. Program costs, incremental costs to users, and the health system costs for these women were measured along with changes in the utilization of antenatal care visits and childhood immunizations and compared with those from a control group of pregnant women who received no SMS text messages. Incremental changes in utilization were entered into the Lives Saved Tool and used to forecast lives saved and disability adjusted life years (DALYs) averted by scaling up program activities over 5 years to reach 60% of pregnant women across Gauteng province. Uncertainty was characterized using one-way and probabilistic uncertainty analyses. RESULTS: Five-year program costs were estimated to be US $1.2 million, 17% of which were incurred by costs on program development and 31% on SMS text message delivery costs. Costs to users were US $1.66 to attend clinic-based services, nearly 90% of which was attributed to wages lost. Costs to the health system included provider time costs to register users (US $0.08) and to provide antenatal care (US $4.36) and postnatal care (US $3.08) services. Incremental costs per DALY averted from a societal perspective ranged from US $1985 in the first year of implementation to US $200 in the 5th year. At a willingness-to-pay threshold of US $2000, the project had a 40% probability of being cost-effective in year 1 versus 100% in all years thereafter. CONCLUSIONS: Study findings suggest that delivering SMS text messages on maternal health information to pregnant and postpartum women may be a cost-effective strategy for bolstering antenatal care and childhood immunizations, even at very small margins of coverage increases. Primary data obtained prospectively as part of more rigorous study designs are needed to validate modeled results.

The effect of HIV prevention products on incentives to supply condomless commercial sex among female sex workers in South Africa.

Evidence suggests that economic factors play an important role in commercial sex work, in particular that condomless sex commands a price premium relative to condom-protected sex. This paper explores whether the use of a new HIV prevention product, with 100% efficacy but modeled after pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP), could change the price and quantity of condomless commercial sex supplied. We collected stated preference data from 122 HIV-negative female sex workers in urban South Africa, using a repeated choice experiment to simulate the impact of using PrEP on choices. Results suggest that the price premium for condomless sex would decrease by 73% with PrEP use and the quantity of condomless sex is predicted to increase by a factor of 2.27. Act price does not significantly affect choices without protection but strongly influences choices under full HIV protection. The utility offered by condoms reduces by around 15% under PrEP use. Because new HIV prevention products do not protect against other STIs or pregnancy, the unintended consequences of introducing HIV prevention products should be closely monitored, whereas users should not face stigma or blame for reacting rationally to exogenous changes to market conditions.

The cost-effectiveness of multi-purpose HIV and pregnancy prevention technologies in South Africa.

INTRODUCTION: A number of antiretroviral HIV prevention products are efficacious in preventing HIV infection. However, the sexual and reproductive health needs of many women extend beyond HIV prevention, and research is ongoing to develop multi-purpose prevention technologies (MPTs) that offer dual HIV and pregnancy protection. We do not yet know if these products will be an efficient use of constrained health resources. In this paper, we estimate the cost-effectiveness of combinations of candidate multi-purpose prevention technologies (MPTs), in South Africa among general population women and female sex workers (FSWs). METHODS: We combined a cost model with a static model of product impact based on incidence data in South Africa to estimate the cost-effectiveness of five candidate co-formulated or co-provided MPTs: oral PrEP, intravaginal ring, injectable ARV, microbicide gel and SILCS diaphragm used in concert with gel. We accounted for the preferences of end-users by predicting uptake using a discrete choice experiment (DCE). Product availability and protection were systematically varied in five potential rollout scenarios. The impact model estimated the number of infections averted through decreased incidence due to product use over one year. The comparator for each scenario was current levels of male condom use, while a health system perspective was used to estimate discounted lifetime treatment costs averted per HIV infection. Product benefit was estimated in disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) averted. Benefits from contraception were incorporated through adjusting the uptake of these products based on the DCE and through estimating the costs averted from avoiding unwanted pregnancies. We explore the additional impact of STI protection through increased uptake in a sensitivity analysis. RESULTS: At central incidence rates, all single- and multi-purpose scenarios modelled were cost-effective among FSWs and women aged 16-24, at a governmental willingness-to-pay threshold of $1175/DALY averted (range: $214-$810/DALY averted among non-dominant scenarios), however, none were cost-effective among women aged 25-49 (minimum $1706/DALY averted). The cost-effectiveness of products improved with additional protection from pregnancy. Estimates were sensitive to variation in incidence assumptions, but robust to other parameters. CONCLUSIONS: To the best of our knowledge, this is the first study to estimate the cost-effectiveness of a range of potential MPTs; suggesting that MPTs will be cost-effective among higher incidence FSWs or young women, but not among lower incidence older women. More work is needed to make attractive MPTs available to potential users who could use them effectively.

Divergent Preferences for HIV Prevention: A Discrete Choice Experiment for Multipurpose HIV Prevention Products in South Africa.

BACKGROUND: The development of antiretroviral (ARV)-based prevention products has the potential to substantially change the HIV prevention landscape; yet, little is known about how appealing these products will be outside of clinical trials, as compared with the existing options. METHODS: We conducted a discrete choice experiment (DCE) to measure preferences for 5 new products among 4 important populations in the HIV response: adult men and women in the general population (aged 18 to 49 y), adolescent girls (aged 16 to 17 y), and self-identifying female sex workers (aged 18 to 49 y). We interviewed 661 self-reported HIV-negative participants in peri-urban South Africa, who were asked to choose between 3 unique, hypothetical products over 10 choice sets. Data were analyzed using multinomial, latent class and mixed multinomial logit models. RESULTS: HIV protection was the most important attribute to respondents; however, results indicate significant demand among all groups for multipurpose prevention products that offer protection from HIV infection, other STIs, and unwanted pregnancy. All groups demonstrated a strong preference for long-lasting injectable products. There was substantial heterogeneity in preferences within and across population groups. LIMITATIONS: Hypothetical DCE data may not mirror real-world choices, and products will have more attributes in reality than represented in choice tasks. Background data on participants, including sensitive areas of HIV status and condom use, was self-reported. CONCLUSIONS: These results suggest that stimulating demand for new HIV prevention products may require a more a nuanced approach than simply developing highly effective products. No single product is likely to be equally attractive or acceptable across different groups. This study strengthens the call for effective and attractive multipurpose prevention products to be deployed as part of a comprehensive combination prevention strategy.

HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis and early antiretroviral treatment among female sex workers in South Africa: Results from a prospective observational demonstration project.

BACKGROUND: Operational research is required to design delivery of pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) and early antiretroviral treatment (ART). This paper presents the primary analysis of programmatic data, as well as demographic, behavioural, and clinical data, from the TAPS Demonstration Project, which offered both interventions to female sex workers (FSWs) at 2 urban clinic sites in South Africa. METHODS AND FINDINGS: The TAPS study was conducted between 30 March 2015 and 30 June 2017, with the enrolment period ending on 31 July 2016. TAPS was a prospective observational cohort study with 2 groups receiving interventions delivered in existing service settings: (1) PrEP as part of combination prevention for HIV-negative FSWs and (2) early ART for HIV-positive FSWs. The main outcome was programme retention at 12 months of follow-up. Of the 947 FSWs initially seen in clinic, 692 were HIV tested. HIV prevalence was 49%. Among those returning to clinic after HIV testing and clinical screening, 93% of the women who were HIV-negative were confirmed as clinically eligible for PrEP (n = 224/241), and 41% (n = 110/270) of the women who were HIV-positive had CD4 counts within National Department of Health ART initiation guidelines at assessment. Of the remaining women who were HIV-positive, 93% were eligible for early ART (n = 148/160). From those eligible, 98% (n = 219/224) and 94% (n = 139/148) took up PrEP and early ART, respectively. At baseline, a substantial fraction of women had a steady partner, worked in brothels, and were born in Zimbabwe. Of those enrolled, 22% on PrEP (n = 49/219) and 60% on early ART (n = 83/139) were seen at 12 months; we observed high rates of loss to follow-up: 71% (n = 156/219) and 30% (n = 42/139) in the PrEP and early ART groups, respectively. Little change over time was reported in consistent condom use or the number of sexual partners in the last 7 days, with high levels of consistent condom use with clients and low use with steady partners in both study groups. There were no seroconversions on PrEP and 7 virological failures on early ART among women remaining in the study. Reported adherence to PrEP varied over time between 70% and 85%, whereas over 90% of participants reported taking pills daily while on early ART. Data on provider-side costs were also collected and analysed. The total cost of service delivery was approximately US$126 for PrEP and US$406 for early ART per person-year. The main limitations of this study include the lack of a control group, which was not included due to ethical considerations; clinical study requirements imposed when PrEP was not approved through the regulatory system, which could have affected uptake; and the timing of the implementation of a national sex worker HIV programme, which could have also affected uptake and retention. CONCLUSIONS: PrEP and early ART services can be implemented within FSW routine services in high prevalence, urban settings. We observed good uptake for both PrEP and early ART; however, retention rates for PrEP were low. Retention rates for early ART were similar to retention rates for the current standard of care. While the cost of the interventions was higher than previously published, there is potential for cost reduction at scale. The TAPS Demonstration Project results provided the basis for the first government PrEP and early ART guidelines and the rollout of the national sex worker HIV programme in South Africa.

Evidence that a tax on sugar sweetened beverages reduces the obesity rate: a meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Excess intake of sugar sweetened beverages (SSBs) has been shown to result in weight gain. To address the growing epidemic of obesity, one option is to combine programmes that target individual behaviour change with a fiscal policy such as excise tax on SSBs. This study evaluates the literature on SSB taxes or price increases, and their potential impact on consumption levels, obesity, overweight and body mass index (BMI). The possibility of switching to alternative drinks is also considered. METHODS: The following databases were used: Pubmed/Medline, The Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews, Google Scholar, Econlit, National Bureau of Economics Research (NBER), Research Papers in Economics (RePEc). Articles published between January 2000 and January 2013, which reported changes in diet or BMI, overweight and/or obesity due to a tax on, or price change of, SSBs were included. RESULTS: Nine articles met the criteria for the meta-analysis. Six were from the USA and one each from Mexico, Brazil and France. All showed negative own-price elasticity, which means that higher prices are associated with a lower demand for SSBs. Pooled own price-elasticity was -1.299 (95% CI: -1.089 - -1.509). Four articles reported cross-price elasticities, three from the USA and one from Mexico; higher prices for SSBs were associated with an increased demand for alternative beverages such as fruit juice (0.388, 95% CI: 0.009 - 0.767) and milk (0.129, 95% CI: -0.085 - 0.342), and a reduced demand for diet drinks (-0.423, 95% CI: -0.628 - -1.219). Six articles from the USA showed that a higher price could also lead to a decrease in BMI, and decrease the prevalence of overweight and obesity. CONCLUSIONS: Taxing SSBs may reduce obesity. Future research should estimate price elasticities in low- and middle-income countries and identify potential health gains and the wider impact on jobs, monetary savings to the health sector, implementation costs and government revenue. Context-specific cost-effectiveness studies would allow policy makers to weigh these factors.