Antagonistic Effects of Assortative Mating on the Evolution of Phenotypic Plasticity along Environmental Gradients.

AbstractPrevious theory has shown that assortative mating for plastic traits can maintain genetic divergence across environmental gradients despite high gene flow. Yet these models did not examine how assortative mating affects the evolution of plasticity. We here describe patterns of genetic variation across elevation for plasticity in a trait under assortative mating, using multiple-year observations of budburst date in a common garden of sessile oaks. Despite high gene flow, we found significant spatial genetic divergence for the intercept, but not for the slope, of reaction norms to temperature. We then used individual-based simulations, where both the slope and the intercept of the reaction norm evolve, to examine how assortative mating affects the evolution of plasticity, varying the intensity and distance of gene flow. Our model predicts the evolution of either suboptimal plasticity (reaction norms with a slope shallower than optimal) or hyperplasticity (slopes steeper than optimal) in the presence of assortative mating when optimal plasticity would evolve under random mating. Furthermore, a cogradient pattern of genetic divergence for the intercept of the reaction norm (where plastic and genetic effects are in the same direction) always evolves in simulations with assortative mating, consistent with our observations in the studied oak populations.

Masting is uncommon in trees that depend on mutualist dispersers in the context of global climate and fertility gradients.

The benefits of masting (volatile, quasi-synchronous seed production at lagged intervals) include satiation of seed predators, but these benefits come with a cost to mutualist pollen and seed dispersers. If the evolution of masting represents a balance between these benefits and costs, we expect mast avoidance in species that are heavily reliant on mutualist dispersers. These effects play out in the context of variable climate and site fertility among species that vary widely in nutrient demand. Meta-analyses of published data have focused on variation at the population scale, thus omitting periodicity within trees and synchronicity between trees. From raw data on 12 million tree-years worldwide, we quantified three components of masting that have not previously been analysed together: (i) volatility, defined as the frequency-weighted year-to-year variation; (ii) periodicity, representing the lag between high-seed years; and (iii) synchronicity, indicating the tree-to-tree correlation. Results show that mast avoidance (low volatility and low synchronicity) by species dependent on mutualist dispersers explains more variation than any other effect. Nutrient-demanding species have low volatility, and species that are most common on nutrient-rich and warm/wet sites exhibit short periods. The prevalence of masting in cold/dry sites coincides with climatic conditions where dependence on vertebrate dispersers is less common than in the wet tropics. Mutualist dispersers neutralize the benefits of masting for predator satiation, further balancing the effects of climate, site fertility and nutrient demands.

Oak masting drivers vary between populations depending on their climatic environments.

Large interannual variation in seed production, called masting, is very common in wind-pollinated tree populations and has profound implications for the dynamics of forest ecosystems and the epidemiology of certain human diseases.1,2,3,4,5 Comparing the reproductive characteristics of populations established in climatically contrasting environments would provide powerful insight into masting mechanisms, but the required data are extremely scarce. We built a database from an unprecedented fine-scale 8-year survey of 150 sessile oak trees (Quercus petraea) from 15 populations distributed over a broad climatic gradient, including individual recordings of annual flowering effort, fruiting rate, and fruit production. Although oak masting was previously considered to depend mainly on fruiting rate variations,6,7 we show that the female flowering effort is highly variable from year to year and explains most of the fruiting dynamics in two-thirds of the populations. What drives masting was found to differ among populations living under various climates. In soft-climate populations, the fruiting rate increases initially strongly with the flowering effort, and the intensity of masting results mainly from the flowering synchrony level between individuals. By contrast, the fruiting rate of harsh-climate populations depends mainly on spring weather, which ensures intense masting regardless of the flowering synchronization level. Our work highlights the need for jointly measuring flowering effort and fruit production to decipher the diversity of masting mechanisms among populations. Accounting for such diversity will be decisive in proposing accurate, and possibly contrasted, scenarios about future reproductive patterns of perennial plants with ongoing climate change and their numerous cascading effects.

Limits to reproduction and seed size-number trade-offs that shape forest dominance and future recovery.

The relationships that control seed production in trees are fundamental to understanding the evolution of forest species and their capacity to recover from increasing losses to drought, fire, and harvest. A synthesis of fecundity data from 714 species worldwide allowed us to examine hypotheses that are central to quantifying reproduction, a foundation for assessing fitness in forest trees. Four major findings emerged. First, seed production is not constrained by a strict trade-off between seed size and numbers. Instead, seed numbers vary over ten orders of magnitude, with species that invest in large seeds producing more seeds than expected from the 1:1 trade-off. Second, gymnosperms have lower seed production than angiosperms, potentially due to their extra investments in protective woody cones. Third, nutrient-demanding species, indicated by high foliar phosphorus concentrations, have low seed production. Finally, sensitivity of individual species to soil fertility varies widely, limiting the response of community seed production to fertility gradients. In combination, these findings can inform models of forest response that need to incorporate reproductive potential.

Globally, tree fecundity exceeds productivity gradients.

Lack of tree fecundity data across climatic gradients precludes the analysis of how seed supply contributes to global variation in forest regeneration and biotic interactions responsible for biodiversity. A global synthesis of raw seedproduction data shows a 250-fold increase in seed abundance from cold-dry to warm-wet climates, driven primarily by a 100-fold increase in seed production for a given tree size. The modest (threefold) increase in forest productivity across the same climate gradient cannot explain the magnitudes of these trends. The increase in seeds per tree can arise from adaptive evolution driven by intense species interactions or from the direct effects of a warm, moist climate on tree fecundity. Either way, the massive differences in seed supply ramify through food webs potentially explaining a disproportionate role for species interactions in the wet tropics.

MASTREE+: Time-series of plant reproductive effort from six continents.

Significant gaps remain in understanding the response of plant reproduction to environmental change. This is partly because measuring reproduction in long-lived plants requires direct observation over many years and such datasets have rarely been made publicly available. Here we introduce MASTREE+, a data set that collates reproductive time-series data from across the globe and makes these data freely available to the community. MASTREE+ includes 73,828 georeferenced observations of annual reproduction (e.g. seed and fruit counts) in perennial plant populations worldwide. These observations consist of 5971 population-level time-series from 974 species in 66 countries. The mean and median time-series length is 12.4 and 10 years respectively, and the data set includes 1122 series that extend over at least two decades (≥20 years of observations). For a subset of well-studied species, MASTREE+ includes extensive replication of time-series across geographical and climatic gradients. Here we describe the open-access data set, available as a.csv file, and we introduce an associated web-based app for data exploration. MASTREE+ will provide the basis for improved understanding of the response of long-lived plant reproduction to environmental change. Additionally, MASTREE+ will enable investigation of the ecology and evolution of reproductive strategies in perennial plants, and the role of plant reproduction as a driver of ecosystem dynamics.

Aún existen importantes vacíos en la comprensión de la respuesta reproductiva de las plantas al cambio medioambiental, en parte, porque su monitoreo en especies de plantas longevas requiere una observación directa durante muchos años, y estos conjuntos de datos rara vez han estado disponibles. Aquí presentamos a MASTREE +, una base de datos que recopila series de tiempo de la reproducción de las plantas de todo el planeta, poniendo a disposición estos datos de libre acceso para la comunidad científica. MASTREE + incluye 73.828 puntos de observación de la reproducción anual georreferenciados (ej. conteos de semillas y frutos) en poblaciones de plantas perennes en todo el mundo. Estas observaciones consisten en 5971 series temporales a nivel de población provenientes de 974 especies en 66 países. La mediana de la duración de las series de tiempo es de 10 años (media = 12.4 años) y el conjunto de datos incluye 1.122 series de al menos dos décadas (≥20 años de observaciones). Para un subconjunto de especies bien estudiadas, MASTREE +incluye un amplio conjunto de series temporales replicadas en gradientes geográficos y climáticos. Describimos el conjunto de datos de acceso abierto disponible como un archivo.csv y presentamos una aplicación web asociada para la exploración de datos. MASTREE+ proporcionará la base para mejorar la comprensión sobre la respuesta reproductiva de plantas longevas al cambio medioambiental. Además, MASTREE+ facilitará los avances en la investigación de la ecología y la evolución de las estrategias reproductivas en plantas perennes y el papel de la reproducción vegetal como determinante de la dinámica de ecosistemas.

Is there tree senescence? The fecundity evidence.

Despite its importance for forest regeneration, food webs, and human economies, changes in tree fecundity with tree size and age remain largely unknown. The allometric increase with tree diameter assumed in ecological models would substantially overestimate seed contributions from large trees if fecundity eventually declines with size. Current estimates are dominated by overrepresentation of small trees in regression models. We combined global fecundity data, including a substantial representation of large trees. We compared size-fecundity relationships against traditional allometric scaling with diameter and two models based on crown architecture. All allometric models fail to describe the declining rate of increase in fecundity with diameter found for 80% of 597 species in our analysis. The strong evidence of declining fecundity, beyond what can be explained by crown architectural change, is consistent with physiological decline. A downward revision of projected fecundity of large trees can improve the next generation of forest dynamic models.

Maternal effects shape the seed mycobiome in Quercus petraea.

The tree seed mycobiome has received little attention despite its potential role in forest regeneration and health. The aim of the present study was to analyze the processes shaping the composition of seed fungal communities in natural forests as seeds transition from the mother plant to the ground for establishment. We used metabarcoding approaches and confocal microscopy to analyze the fungal communities of seeds collected in the canopy and on the ground in four natural populations of sessile oak (Quercus petraea). Ecological processes shaping the seed mycobiome were inferred using joint species distribution models. Fungi were present in seed internal tissues, including the embryo. The seed mycobiome differed among oak populations and trees within the same population. Its composition was largely influenced by the mother, with weak significant environmental influences. The models also revealed several probable interactions among fungal pathogens and mycoparasites. Our results demonstrate that maternal effects, environmental filtering and biotic interactions all shape the seed mycobiome of sessile oak. They provide a starting point for future research aimed at understanding how maternal genes and environments interact to control the vertical transmission of fungal species that could then influence seed dispersal and germination, and seedling recruitment.

Counter-gradient variation of reproductive effort in a widely distributed temperate oak (Quercus petraea).

The genetic and phenotypic variability of life history traits determines the demographic attributes of tree populations and, thus, their responses to anthropogenic climate change. Growth- and survival-related traits have been widely studied in forest ecology, but little is known about the determinism of reproductive traits.Using an elevation gradient experiment in the Pyrenees we assessed the degree to which variations in reproductive effort along climatic gradients are environmentally or genetically driven, by comparing oak populations (Quercus petraea) growing under field and common garden conditions.In situ monitoring revealed a decline in reproductive effort with increasing elevation and decreasing temperature. In common garden conditions, significant genetic differentiation was observed between provenances for reproduction and growth: trees from cold environments (high elevations) grew more slowly, and produced larger acorns in larger numbers. Our observations show that genetic and phenotypic clines for reproductive traits have opposite signs (counter-gradient) along the environmental gradient as opposed to growth, for which genetic variation parallels phenotypic variation (co-gradient).The counter-gradient found here for reproductive effort reveals that genetic variation partly counteracts the phenotypic effect of temperature, moderating the change in reproductive effort according to temperature. We consider the possible contribution to this counter-gradient in reproductive effort as an evolutionary trade-off between reproduction and growth.

Where is the optimum? Predicting the variation of selection along climatic gradients and the adaptive value of plasticity. A case study on tree phenology.

Many theoretical models predict when genetic evolution and phenotypic plasticity allow adaptation to changing environmental conditions. These models generally assume stabilizing selection around some optimal phenotype. We however often ignore how optimal phenotypes change with the environment, which limit our understanding of the adaptive value of phenotypic plasticity. Here, we propose an approach based on our knowledge of the causal relationships between climate, adaptive traits, and fitness to further these questions. This approach relies on a sensitivity analysis of the process-based model phenofit, which mathematically formalizes these causal relationships, to predict fitness landscapes and optimal budburst dates along elevation gradients in three major European tree species. Variation in the overall shape of the fitness landscape and resulting directional selection gradients were found to be mainly driven by temperature variation. The optimal budburst date was delayed with elevation, while the range of dates allowing high fitness narrowed and the maximal fitness at the optimum decreased. We also found that the plasticity of the budburst date should allow tracking the spatial variation in the optimal date, but with variable mismatch depending on the species, ranging from negligible mismatch in fir, moderate in beech, to large in oak. Phenotypic plasticity would therefore be more adaptive in fir and beech than in oak. In all species, we predicted stronger directional selection for earlier budburst date at higher elevation. The weak selection on budburst date in fir should result in the evolution of negligible genetic divergence, while beech and oak would evolve counter-gradient variation, where genetic and environmental effects are in opposite directions. Our study suggests that theoretical models should consider how whole fitness landscapes change with the environment. The approach introduced here has the potential to be developed for other traits and species to explore how populations will adapt to climate change.

Pollen limitation as a main driver of fruiting dynamics in oak populations.

In many perennial wind-pollinated plants, the dynamics of seed production is commonly known to be highly fluctuating from year to year and synchronised among individuals within populations. The proximate causes of such seeding dynamics, called masting, are still poorly understood in oak species that are widespread in the northern hemisphere, and whose fruiting dynamics dramatically impacts forest regeneration and biodiversity. Combining long-term surveys of oak airborne pollen amount and acorn production over large-scale field networks in temperate areas, and a mechanistic modelling approach, we found that the pollen dynamics is the key driver of oak masting. Mechanisms at play involved both internal resource allocation to pollen production synchronised among trees and spring weather conditions affecting the amount of airborne pollen available for reproduction. The sensitivity of airborne pollen to weather conditions might make oak masting and its ecological consequences highly sensitive to climate change.

Heritability and genetic architecture of reproduction-related traits in a temperate oak species.

Reproduction, one of the main components of plant fitness, is highly variable in response to environmental cues, but little is known about the genetic determinism underlying reproduction-related traits in forest tree species. There is therefore an urgent need to characterize the genetic architecture of those traits if we are to predict the evolutionary trajectories of forest populations facing rapidly changing environment and mitigate their impacts. Using a full-sib family of pedunculate oak (Quercus robur), we investigated the within population variability of seed production and mean seed mass during four consecutive years. Reproductive traits were highly variable between trees and between years. The high narrow sense heritability and evolvability estimated underline the important genetic effect on the variability in seed production and mean seed mass. Despite a large variability over years, reproductive traits show significant genetic correlation between years. Furthermore, for the first time in forest tree species, quantitative trait loci (QTLs) associated with seed production and mean mass of a seed have been identified. While it is commonly assumed and observed that fitness-traits have low narrow sense heritabilities, our findings show that reproduction-related traits may undergo evolutionary changes under selective pressure and may be determinant for tree adaptation.

Increasing spring temperatures favor oak seed production in temperate areas.

The changes in reproductive phenology (i.e. timing of flowering and fruiting) observed in recent decades demonstrate that tree reproduction has already been altered by climate change. However, understanding the impact of these changes in reproductive success and fitness remains a major challenge for ecologists. We describe here a previously unreported phenomenon: a significant increase in the reproductive effort (seed production) of temperate oaks with increasing spring temperature, observed over the last decade. In contrast, no relationship was found between seed production and precipitation. This sensitivity of seed production to temperature was confirmed by a "space-for-time" substitution based on elevation gradients. Our findings suggest that global warming may enhance oak reproductive effort in temperate ecosystems. Nevertheless, while fitness can be enhanced by higher levels of seed production, it also depends on the frequency and synchronization of mast seeding production, which may also be influenced by climate change.