The effect of combination prevention strategies on HIV incidence among gay and bisexual men who have sex with men in the UK: a model-based analysis.

BACKGROUND: In the UK, the number of new HIV diagnoses among gay and bisexual men who have sex with men (GBMSM) has decreased substantially. We aimed to understand the contribution of different interventions in reducing HIV incidence so far; to estimate future HIV incidence with continuation of current policies and with further scaling up of current interventions; and to estimate the maximum additional annual cost that should be spent towards these interventions for them to offer value for money. METHODS: We calibrated a dynamic, individual-based, stochastic simulation model, the HIV Synthesis Model, to multiple sources of data on HIV among GBMSM aged 15 years or older in the UK. Primarily these were routine HIV surveillance data collected by the UK Health Security Agency. We compared HIV incidence in 2022 with the counterfactual incidence: if HIV testing rates stopped increasing in 2012 and the policy of antiretroviral therapy (ART) at diagnosis was not introduced in mid-2015; if pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) was not introduced; if condom use was low from 2012 in all GBMSM, at levels similar to those observed in 1980; and in the first and second scenario combined. We also projected future outcomes under the assumption of continuation of current policies and considering increases in PrEP and HIV testing uptake and a decrease in condomless sex. FINDINGS: Our model estimated a 77% (90% uncertainty interval [UI] 61-88) decline in HIV incidence since around 2014, with an estimated 597 infections ([90% UI 312-956]; 1·1 per 1000 person-years [90% UI 0·6-1·8]) in men aged 15-64 years in 2022. Both PrEP introduction and increased HIV testing with ART initiation at diagnosis each had a substantial effect on HIV incidence. Without PrEP introduction, we estimate there would have been 2·16 times the number of infections that actually occurred (90% UI 1·06-3·75) between 2012 and 2022; without increased HIV testing and ART initiation at diagnosis there would have been 2·18 times the number of infections that actually occurred (1·18-3·60), and if condomless sex was at the levels before the HIV epidemic, there would have been 2·27 times the number of infections that actually occurred (0·9-5·4). If rates of testing, ART use, and PrEP use remain as they are currently, there is a predicted decline in incidence to 388 HIV infections in 2025 (90% UI 226-650) and to 263 (137-433) in 2030. Increases in HIV testing and PrEP use were predicted to accelerate the decline in HIV incidence. Given the quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) benefit and a cost-effectiveness threshold of £30 000 per QALY gained, in order to be cost-effective an additional £1·62 million could be spent per year to increase testing levels by 34% (90% UI 25-46) and PrEP use by 55% (10-107). To achieve that, a 16% reduction in the cost of delivery of testing and PrEP would be required. INTERPRETATION: Combination prevention, including a PrEP strategy, played a major role in the reduction in HIV incidence observed so far in the UK among GBMSM. Continuation of current activities should lead to a continued decline; however, it is unlikely to lead to reaching the target of fewer than 50 HIV infections per year among GBMSM by 2030. It will be important to reduce costs for testing and PrEP for their continued expansion to be cost-effective. FUNDING: National Institute for Health Research under its Programme Grants for Applied Research Programme and Medical Research Council-UK Research and Innovation.

PrEP in the Context of Other HIV Risk Reduction Strategies Among Men Who Have Sex with Men: Results from the Flash! PrEP in Europe Survey.

Combination HIV prevention covers a range of biomedical, behavioral, and socio-structural interventions. Despite the growing availability of pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP), it is not always accessible in European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control reporting countries and may not meet the needs of all at-risk populations. Based on the Flash! PrEP in Europe data, multiple correspondence analysis and hierarchical clustering were used to identify patterns in HIV prevention strategies among 9980 men who have sex with men (MSM). PrEP interest was evaluated among four identified clusters: (A) "high condom use, sometimes Treatment as Prevention (TasP)"; (B) "mix of methods, infrequent condom use"; (C) "high condom use, tendency to choose partners based on serological status" and (D) "moderate use of condoms mixed with other prevention strategies". Clusters B and D had higher PrEP interest. These results suggest that MSM use a range of behavioral and biomedical risk reduction strategies that are often combined. On-demand PrEP may meet the needs of MSM who infrequently use condoms and other prevention methods.

Achievements and gaps to provide pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) for women across the European Region - Results from a European survey study.

INTRODUCTION: The use of pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) is a safe and effective prevention option to all people at substantial risk of HIV acquisition, irrespective of gender. However, in most European countries PrEP services focus on key populations, in particular men who have sex with men (MSM). This study aims to explore PrEP availability and implementation for women across the European region. METHODS: An online survey was sent to all members of Women Against Viruses in Europe (WAVE) from 50 countries in September 2019. It consisted of 19 questions, including both multiple choice and free text answers. RESULTS: In total, responses from 34 countries were included in the study (Western Europe n â€‹= â€‹12, Central Europe â€‹= â€‹12, Eastern Europe n â€‹= â€‹6). PrEP was accessible in 30 WHO European countries. More than half of them stated that PrEP was available for all groups at-risk of HIV acquisition (n â€‹= â€‹18), while in many countries PrEP was only available to MSM and transgender persons. Two-thirds of country respondents confirmed the availability of a national guideline for PrEP (n â€‹= â€‹23), of which six countries had specific recommendations for PrEP in women. The most cited obstacles for PrEP access were lack of information about PrEP, lack of political support, and high cost for the individual. Fifteen country respondents stated that there were specific obstacles for PrEP access for women, such as guidelines prioritizing MSM, women not being seen as a target population for PrEP, and lack of knowledge about which subgroup of women would benefit most from PrEP. Seven countries had made efforts to encourage women's access to PrEP, most of which were individually based or initiated by local NGOs. CONCLUSIONS: PrEP is an important addition to HIV combination prevention. Women's access to PrEP in Europe remains limited. Women are often not included in the guidelines or targeted with education or information, resulting in a general lack of information about the use of PrEP for women.

Challenges of HIV diagnosis and management in the context of pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP), post-exposure prophylaxis (PEP), test and start and acute HIV infection: a scoping review.

INTRODUCTION: Knowledge of HIV status relies on accurate HIV testing, and is the first step towards access to HIV treatment and prevention programmes. Globally, HIV-status unawareness represents a significant challenge for achieving zero new HIV infections and deaths. In order to enhance knowledge of HIV status, the World Health Organisation (WHO) recommends a testing strategy that includes the use of HIV-specific antibody point-of-care tests (POCT). These POCTs do not detect acute HIV infection, the stage of disease when viral load is highest but HIV antibodies are undetectable. Complicating things further, in the presence of antiretroviral therapy (ART) for pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) or post-exposure prophylaxis (PEP), other currently available testing technologies, such as viral load detection for diagnosis of acute HIV infection, may yield false-negative results. In this scoping review, we evaluate the evidence and discuss alternative HIV testing algorithms that may mitigate diagnostic dilemmas in the setting of increased utilization of ART for immediate treatment and prevention of HIV infection. DISCUSSION: Missed acute HIV infection prevents people living with HIV (PLHIV) from accessing early treatment, increases likelihood of onward transmission, and allows for inappropriate initiation or continuation of PrEP, which may result in HIV drug resistance. While immediate ART is recommended for all PLHIV, studies have shown that starting ART in the setting of acute HIV infection may result in a delayed or complete absence of development of HIV-specific antibodies, posing a diagnostic challenge that is particularly pertinent to resource-limited, high HIV burden settings where HIV-antibody POCTs are standard of care. Similarly, ART used as PrEP or PEP may supress HIV RNA viral load, complicating current HIV testing algorithms in resource-wealthy settings where viral detection is included. As rollout of PrEP continues, HIV testing algorithms may need to be modified. CONCLUSIONS: With increasing use of PrEP and ART in acute infection we anticipate diagnostic challenges using currently available HIV testing strategies. Research and surveillance are needed to determine the most appropriate assays and optimal testing algorithms that are accurate, affordable and sustainable.

Cost-effectiveness of pre-exposure prophylaxis for HIV prevention in men who have sex with men in the UK: a modelling study and health economic evaluation.

BACKGROUND: In the UK, HIV incidence among men who have sex with men (MSM) has remained high for several years, despite widespread use of antiretroviral therapy and high rates of virological suppression. Pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) has been shown to be highly effective in preventing further infections in MSM, but its cost-effectiveness is uncertain. METHODS: In this modelling study and economic evaluation, we calibrated a dynamic, individual-based stochastic model, the HIV Synthesis Model, to multiple data sources (surveillance data provided by Public Health England and data from a large, nationally representative survey, Natsal-3) on HIV among MSM in the UK. We did a probabilistic sensitivity analysis (sampling 22 key parameters) along with a range of univariate sensitivity analyses to evaluate the introduction of a PrEP programme with sexual event-based use of emtricitabine and tenofovir for MSM who had condomless anal sexual intercourse in the previous 3 months, a negative HIV test at baseline, and a negative HIV test in the preceding year. The main model outcomes were the number of HIV infections, quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), and costs. FINDINGS: Introduction of such a PrEP programme, with around 4000 MSM initiated on PrEP by the end of the first year and almost 40 000 by the end of the 15th year, would result in a total cost saving (£1·0 billion discounted), avert 25% of HIV infections (42% of which would be directly because of PrEP), and lead to a gain of 40 000 discounted QALYs over an 80-year time horizon. This result was particularly sensitive to the time horizon chosen, the cost of antiretroviral drugs (for treatment and PrEP), and the underlying trend in condomless sex. INTERPRETATION: This analysis suggests that the introduction of a PrEP programme for MSM in the UK is cost-effective and possibly cost-saving in the long term. A reduction in the cost of antiretroviral drugs (including the drugs used for PrEP) would substantially shorten the time for cost savings to be realised. FUNDING: National Institute for Health Research.

PrEP: controversy, agency and ownership.

Pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) has been and continues to be an intervention that causes controversy and debate between stakeholders involved in providing or advocating for it, and within communities in need of it. These controversies extend beyond the intrinsically complex issues of making it available. In this commentary, some of the possible roots of the air of dissent and drama that accompanies PrEP are explored. The similarities between the controversies that dogged the earliest human trials of PrEP and the ones we see today in the era of licensing and implementation are explored. We outline five mediating principles or cultural norms that may influence arguments about PrEP differently. Three areas of specific concern are identified: medical risk versus benefit, distrust and fear of healthcare interventions, and fears for individual responsibility and community cohesion. The fear that PrEP may somehow represent a loss of control over one or more of these domains is suggested as an underlying factor. The development of countervailing measures, to institute greater community "ownership" of PrEP, and concomitant improvements in the sense of individual agency over sexual risk are outlined and recommended.

The European preexposure prophylaxis revolution.

PURPOSE OF REVIEW: The review describes the European epidemic and the challenges in moving from clinical trials of preexposure prophylaxis (PrEP) to routine practice. RECENT FINDINGS: Two European trials conducted in gay and other MSM and transgender women reported a high and consistent reduction in HIV incidence using oral PrEP with tenofovir/emtricitabine (TDF/FTC). The incidence of HIV infection in the control group was much higher than anticipated, based on routine surveillance data in MSM, in spite of the highest standard of HIV prevention available. SUMMARY: Recent results have highlighted the urgent need to make PrEP available to key populations in Europe as an additional prevention tool. Gilead has not yet submitted an application to use TDF/FTC as PrEP in Europe. Although regulatory approval would accelerate implementation, countries are already dispensing TDF/FTC as postexposure prophylaxis without this. Services for prevention are diverse across countries ranging from free, walk-in services for the diagnosis and treatment of HIV and other sexually transmitted infections, to insurance-dependent reimbursement of private clinical services. Momentum is gathering in Europe with PrEP demonstration projects in MSM and a growing demand from community organizations. Each Member State urgently needs to identify their key populations and determine the service best placed to provide this new prevention strategy within a comprehensive prevention package.

Treatment as prevention: arriving at community consensus.

At a satellite meeting preceding the 2013 Controlling the HIV Epidemic With Antiretrovirals evidence summit in London, England, a group of organizations and advocates discussed and formulated the final draft of a document, the Community Consensus Statement on the Use of Antiretroviral Therapy in Preventing HIV Transmission, that succinctly outlines a set of principles that should be followed in the provision of antiretroviral therapy to people with living with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) for the purposes of preventing HIV, particularly as a public health measure. The satellite meeting's conclusions were subsequently outlined in a presentation and panel discussion at the evidence summit.

Controlling the HIV epidemic with antiretrovirals: IAPAC consensus statement on treatment as prevention and preexposure prophylaxis.

In the context of emerging evidence related to preexposure prophylaxis and HIV treatment as prevention, an evidence summit was held in mid-2012 to discuss the current state of the science and to provide a platform for consensus building around whether and how these prevention strategies might be implemented globally. Health care providers, researchers, policy makers, people living with HIV/AIDS, and representatives of government authorities, donor agencies, pharmaceutical companies, advocacy organizations, and professional associations attended from 52 countries. An international advisory committee was convened to identify key messages and recommendations based upon the data presented and discussed at the summit. The advisory committee further worked to develop this consensus statement meant to assist relevant stakeholders in taking stock and mapping out a route forward to enhance the HIV prevention armamentarium.

British HIV Association guidelines for the treatment of HIV-1-positive adults with antiretroviral therapy 2012.

The overall purpose of these guidelines is to provide guidance on best clinical practice in the treatment and management of adults with HIV infection with antiretroviral therapy (ART). The scope includes: (i) guidance on the initiation of ART in those previously naïve to therapy; (ii)support of patients on treatment; (iii) management of patients experiencing virological failure; and (iv) recommendations in specific patient populations where other factors need to be taken into consideration. The guidelines are aimed at clinical professionals directly involved with and responsible for the care of adults with HIV infection and at community advocates responsible for promoting the best interests and care of HIV-positive adults. They should be read in conjunction with other published BHIVA guidelines.

Earlier testing for HIV--how do we prevent late presentation?

HIV testing policies and practices vary widely across Europe. It is clear that there are individuals who might present late for HIV diagnosis and care within all risk groups, and potentially in any healthcare setting. This article explores the need to ensure earlier identification and treatment of late-presenting patients by reviewing strategies that might be considered. Such strategies could include routine provider-initiated HIV testing of at-risk groups in settings such as sexually transmitted infection clinics, drug dependency programmes or antenatal care. Healthcare providers might also consider routine HIV testing in all healthcare facilities, in settings including emergency and primary care, where local HIV prevalence is above a threshold that should be further evaluated. They should also take advantage of rapid testing technologies and be aware of barriers to HIV testing among specific groups to provide opportunities for testing that are relevant to local communities.

New directions in HIV prevention: serosorting and universal testing.

The use of HIV testing and information about one's serostatus as an HIV prevention tool remains a complex and controversial area of debate, largely due to issues of trust: trust in the confidentiality of information, trust that health care providers will not test without consent, and trust that partners are telling the truth about their status.