Human impacts outpace natural processes in the Amazon.

Amazonian environments are being degraded by modern industrial and agricultural activities at a pace far above anything previously known, imperiling its vast biodiversity reserves and globally important ecosystem services. The most substantial threats come from regional deforestation, because of export market demands, and global climate change. The Amazon is currently perched to transition rapidly from a largely forested to a nonforested landscape. These changes are happening much too rapidly for Amazonian species, peoples, and ecosystems to respond adaptively. Policies to prevent the worst outcomes are known and must be enacted immediately. We now need political will and leadership to act on this information. To fail the Amazon is to fail the biosphere, and we fail to act at our peril.

A framework for near-real time monitoring of diversity patterns based on indirect remote sensing, with an application in the Brazilian Atlantic rainforest.

Monitoring biodiversity change is key to effective conservation policy. While it is difficult to establish in situ biodiversity monitoring programs at broad geographical scales, remote sensing advances allow for near-real time Earth observations that may help with this goal. We combine periodical and freely available remote sensing information describing temperature and precipitation with curated biological information from several groups of animals and plants in the Brazilian Atlantic rainforest to design an indirect remote sensing framework that monitors potential loss and gain of biodiversity in near-real time. Using data from biological collections and information from repeated field inventories, we demonstrate that this framework has the potential to accurately predict trends of biodiversity change for both taxonomic and phylogenetic diversity. The framework identifies areas of potential diversity loss more accurately than areas of species gain, and performs best when applied to broadly distributed groups of animals and plants.

A mid-Pleistocene rainforest corridor enabled synchronous invasions of the Atlantic Forest by Amazonian anole lizards.

Shifts in the geographic distribution of habitats over time can promote dispersal and vicariance, thereby influencing large-scale biogeographic patterns and ecological processes. An example is that of transient corridors of suitable habitat across disjunct but ecologically similar regions, which have been associated with climate change over time. Such connections likely played a role in the assembly of tropical communities, especially within the highly diverse Amazonian and Atlantic rainforests of South America. Although these forests are presently separated by open and dry ecosystems, paleoclimatic and phylogenetic evidence suggest that they have been transiently connected in the past. However, little is known about the timing, magnitude and the distribution of former forest connections. We employ sequence data at multiple loci from three codistributed arboreal lizards (Anolis punctatus, Anolis ortonii and Polychrus marmoratus) to infer the phylogenetic relationships among Amazonian and Atlantic Forest populations and to test alternative historical demographic scenarios of colonization and vicariance using coalescent simulations and approximate Bayesian computation (ABC). Data from the better-sampled Anolis species support colonization of the Atlantic Forest from eastern Amazonia. Hierarchical ABC indicates that the three species colonized the Atlantic Forest synchronously during the mid-Pleistocene. We find support of population bottlenecks associated with founder events in the two Anolis, but not in P. marmoratus, consistently with their distinct ecological tolerances. Our findings support that climatic fluctuations provided key opportunities for dispersal and forest colonization in eastern South America through the cessation of environmental barriers. Evidence of species-specific histories strengthens assertions that biological attributes play a role in responses to shared environmental change.

Revisiting the vanishing refuge model of diversification.

Much of the debate around speciation and historical biogeography has focused on the role of stabilizing selection on the physiological (abiotic) niche, emphasizing how isolation and vicariance, when associated with niche conservatism, may drive tropical speciation. Yet, recent re-emphasis on the ecological dimensions of speciation points to a more prominent role of divergent selection in driving genetic, phenotypic, and niche divergence. The vanishing refuge model (VRM), first described by Vanzolini and Williams (1981), describes a process of diversification through climate-driven habitat fragmentation and exposure to new environments, integrating both vicariance and divergent selection. This model suggests that dynamic climates and peripheral isolates can lead to genetic and functional (i.e., ecological and phenotypic) diversity, resulting in sister taxa that occupy contrasting habitats with abutting distributions. Here, we provide predictions for populations undergoing divergence according to the VRM that encompass habitat dynamics, phylogeography, and phenotypic differentiation across populations. Such integrative analyses can, in principle, differentiate the operation of the VRM from other speciation models. We applied these principles to a lizard species, Coleodactylus meridionalis, which was used to illustrate the model in the original paper. We incorporate data on inferred historic habitat dynamics, phylogeography and thermal physiology to test for divergence between coastal and inland populations in the Atlantic Forest of Brazil. Environmental and genetic analyses are concordant with divergence through the VRM, yet physiological data are not. We emphasize the importance of multidisciplinary approaches to test this and alternative speciation models while seeking to explain the extraordinarily high genetic and phenotypic diversity of tropical biomes.

Latitude, elevational climatic zonation and speciation in New World vertebrates.

Many biodiversity hotspots are located in montane regions, especially in the tropics. A possible explanation for this pattern is that the narrow thermal tolerances of tropical species and greater climatic stratification of tropical mountains create more opportunities for climate-associated parapatric or allopatric speciation in the tropics relative to the temperate zone. However, it is unclear whether a general relationship exists among latitude, climatic zonation and the ecology of speciation. Recent taxon-specific studies obtained different results regarding the role of climate in speciation in tropical versus temperate areas. Here, we quantify overlap in the climatic distributions of 93 pairs of sister species of mammals, birds, amphibians and reptiles restricted to either the New World tropics or to the Northern temperate zone. We show that elevational ranges of tropical- and temperate-zone species do not differ from one another, yet the temperature range experienced by species in the temperate zone is greater than for those in the tropics. Moreover, tropical sister species tend to exhibit greater similarity in their climatic distributions than temperate sister species. This pattern suggests that evolutionary conservatism in the thermal niches of tropical taxa, coupled with the greater thermal zonation of tropical mountains, may result in increased opportunities for allopatric isolation, speciation and the accumulation of species in tropical montane regions. Our study exemplifies the power of combining phylogenetic and spatial datasets of global climatic variation to explore evolutionary (rather than purely ecological) explanations for the high biodiversity of tropical montane regions.