Hidden multiple comparisons increase forensic error rates.

When wires are cut, the tool produces striations on the cut surface; as in other forms of forensic analysis, these striation marks are used to connect the evidence to the source that created them. Here, we argue that the practice of comparing two wire cut surfaces introduces complexities not present in better-investigated forensic examination of toolmarks such as those observed on bullets, as wire comparisons inherently require multiple distinct comparisons, increasing the expected false discovery rate. We call attention to the multiple comparison problem in wire examination and relate it to other situations in forensics that involve multiple comparisons, such as database searches.

An Ex-Ante Analysis of the Impact of Biofortified Zinc Rice on Dietary Zinc Inadequacy: Evidence from Bangladesh, Indonesia, and the Philippines.

BACKGROUND: South, East, and Southeast Asia are among the regions of the world with the highest estimated prevalence of inadequate zinc intake. Because populations in those regions eat rice as their main staple, zinc biofortification of rice can potentially improve zinc intake, especially among the most vulnerable. OBJECTIVES: We modeled the impact of the consumption of zinc-biofortified rice on zinc intake and inadequacy among women of childbearing age and young children nationally in Indonesia, the Philippines, and at a subnational level in Bangladesh. METHODS: We conducted an ex-ante analysis by applying increments of zinc content in rice, from a baseline level of 16 parts per million (ppm) to 100 ppm, and based on rice consumption data to substitute levels of conventional rice with zinc-biofortified rice varying between 10% and 70%. RESULTS: Among all datasets evaluated from these 3 countries, the prevalence of dietary zinc inadequacy at baseline was 94%-99% among women of childbearing age, 77%-100% among children 4-5 y old, and 27%-78% among children 1-3 y old. At the current breeding target of 28 ppm, zinc-biofortified rice has the potential to decrease zinc inadequacy by ≤50% among women and children in rural Bangladesh and among children in the Philippines where consumption of rice is higher compared with Indonesia. CONCLUSIONS: Our analysis shows that increasing zinc content in rice ≤45 ppm reduces the burden of zinc inadequacy substantially, after which we encourage programs to increase coverage to reach the highest number of beneficiaries.

ShoeCase: A data set of mock crime scene footwear impressions.

This project's main objective is to create an open-source database containing a sizeable number of high-quality images of shoe impressions. The Center for Statistics and Applications in Forensic Evidence (CSAFE) team collected images that represented those found at crime scenes and constructed a database that is publicly available to forensic science and research communities. The database includes images obtained from mixed impression types: full blood impression, partial blood impression, and dust impression. The impressions are made on different flooring (vinyl and tile), and captured via various lift techniques: gel lifts and handiprints (exemplar prints with high definition using graphite powder and clear sticky vinyl, backed by a white sheet), and saved in multiple digital file types (TIF, XMP, CR3, and JPG). Our data were collected to ensure reproducibility, using simple but well-described protocols and easily accessible materials. The complete dataset includes 936 unique shoeprint images saved in 3,275 digital files. Data were collected by trained volunteers making shoe impressions on flooring with the two mediums: spatter blood and graphite powder. To make an impression, volunteers wearing a shoe stepped into the material and then walked on the flooring. A separate "lighter" step was taken to create a partial print for the blood prints. The blood prints were brought to the photography station, where researchers labeled and photographed them. Graphite prints were covered with a gel lifter before being moved to the photography room. There, the researchers removed the lift, labeled, and then photographed them. Our data will be of significant use to researchers, examiners, and anyone who could benefit from using a large dataset like this. Footwear datasets are often difficult to find, especially ones that resemble crime scenes, so our data can help fill that gap.

Assessing adult physical activity and compliance with 2008 CDC guidelines using a Bayesian two-part measurement error model.

While there is wide agreement that physical activity is an important component of a healthy lifestyle, it is unclear how many people adhere to public health recommendations on physical activity. The Physical Activity Guidelines (PAG), published by the CDC, provides guidelines to American adults, but it is difficult to assess compliance with these guidelines. The PAG further complicates adherence assessment by recommending activity to occur in at least 10 min bouts. To better understand the measurement capabilities of various instruments to quantify activity, and to propose an approach to evaluate activity relative to the PAG, researchers at Iowa State University administered the Physical Activity Measurement Survey (PAMS) to over 1000 participants in four different Iowa counties. In this paper, we develop a two-part Bayesian measurement error model and apply it to the PAMS data in order to assess compliance with the PAG in the Iowa adult population. The model accurately accounts for the 10 min bout requirement put forth in the PAG. The measurement error model corrects biased estimates and accounts for day-to-day variation in activity. The model is also applied to the nationally representative National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey.

A statistical approach to aid examiners in the forensic analysis of handwriting.

We develop a statistical approach to model handwriting that accommodates all styles of writing (cursive, print, connected print). The goal is to compute a posterior probability of writership of a questioned document given a closed set of candidate writers. Such probabilistic statements can support examiner conclusions and enable a quantitative forensic evaluation of handwritten documents. Writing is treated as a sequence of disjoint graphical structures, which are extracted using an automated and open-source process. The graphs are grouped based on the similarity of their shapes through a K-means clustering template. A person's writing pattern can be characterized by the rate at which graphs are emitted to each cluster. The cluster memberships serve as data for a Bayesian hierarchical model with a mixture component. The rate of mixing between two parameters in the hierarchy indicates writing style.

The relationship between moderate to vigorous physical activity and metabolic syndrome: a Bayesian measurement error approach.

Metabolic Syndrome (MetS) is a serious condition that can be an early warning sign of heart disease and Type 2 diabetes. MetS is characterized by having elevated levels of blood pressure, cholesterol, waist circumference, and fasting glucose. There are many articles in the literature exploring the relationship between physical activity and MetS, but most do not consider the measurement error in the physical activity measurements nor the correlations among the MetS risk factors. Furthermore, previous work has generally treated MetS as binary, rather than directly modeling the risk factors on their measured, continuous space. Using data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES), we explore the relationship between minutes of moderate to vigorous physical activity (MVPA) and MetS risk factors. We construct a measurement error model for the accelerometry data, and then model its relationship between MetS risk factors with nonlinear seemingly unrelated regressions, incorporating dependence among MetS risk factors. The novel features of this model give the medical research community a new way to understand relationships between MVPA and MetS. The results of this approach present the field with a different modeling perspective than previously taken and suggest future avenues of scientific discovery.

Hierarchical Bayesian non-response models for error rates in forensic black-box studies.

Forensic science plays a critical role in the United States criminal legal system. Historically, however, most feature-based fields of forensic science, including firearms examination and latent print analysis, have not been shown to be scientifically valid. Recently, black-box studies have been proposed as a means of assessing whether these feature-based disciplines are valid, at least in terms of accuracy, reproducibility and repeatability. In these studies, forensic examiners frequently either do not respond to every test item or select an answer equivalent to 'don't know'. Current black-box studies do not account for these high levels of missingness in statistical analyses. Unfortunately, the authors of black-box studies typically do not share the data necessary to meaningfully adjust estimates for the high proportion of missing responses. Borrowing from work in the context of small area estimation, we propose the use of hierarchical Bayesian models that do not require auxiliary data to adjust for non-response. Using these models, we offer the first formal exploration of the impact that missingness is playing in error rate estimations reported in black-box studies. We show that error rates currently reported as low as 0.4% could actually be at least 8.4% in models accounting for non-response where inconclusive decisions are counted as correct, and over 28% when inconclusives are counted as missing responses. These proposed models are not the answer to the missingness problem in black-box studies. But with the release of auxiliary information, they can be the foundation for new methodologies to adjust for missingness in error rate estimations. This article is part of the theme issue 'Bayesian inference: challenges, perspectives, and prospects'.

[Processed and ultra-processed products and their relationship to quality of diet in childrenProdutos processados e ultraprocessados e sua relação com a qualidade da dieta em crianças]. / Productos procesados y ultraprocesados y su relación con la calidad de la dieta en niños.

Objective: Estimate the impact on quality in the early childhood diet (ages 2 to 4 years) in Uruguay, resulting from consumption of products containing excessive amounts of critical nutrients associated with noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) (free sugars, total fats, saturated fats, and sodium), according to the Pan American Health Organization (PAHO) Nutrient Profile Model. Methods: A 24-hour dietary recall survey was used with a representative sample of 401 participants from the 2018 Nutrition, Child Development, and Health Survey. The NOVA classification system was used to categorize foods according to the nature and purposes of the industrial processes they undergo. Foods were then analyzed using the PAHO Nutrient Profile Model, enabling identification of products with excessive amounts of these nutrients. Results: Fifty percent of children consumed three or more products with an excess of some of the nutrients linked to NCDs. About 9 out of 10 children consume products with an excess of at least one of the critical nutrients studied. Conclusion: Diets that do not contain ultra-processed and processed products with excess free sugars, total fats, saturated fats, or sodium were the best choice for children aged 2 to 4 years. Based on PAHO criteria, the consumption of products with excess critical nutrients (and of each additional gram of these products) significantly worsens diet quality, and impedes adherence to World Health Organization recommendations.

Objetivo: Estimar o efeito do consumo de produtos que contêm quantidades excessivas de nutrientes críticos associados a doenças não transmissíveis (DCNTs) ­ açúcares livres, gorduras totais, gorduras saturadas e sódio ­, de acordo com o modelo de perfil nutricional da Organização Pan-Americana da Saúde (OPAS), na qualidade da dieta da primeira infância uruguaia (crianças de 2 a 4 anos). Métodos: Um recordatório alimentar de 24 horas foi aplicado a uma amostra representativa de 401 participantes da Pesquisa de Nutrição, Desenvolvimento Infantil e Saúde de 2018. Foi utilizada a classificação proposta pelo sistema NOVA para categorizar os alimentos de acordo com sua natureza e os processos industriais a que são submetidos. A análise foi feita com base no modelo de perfil nutricional da OPAS, que possibilitou identificar os produtos com teor excessivo dos nutrientes supracitados. Resultados: Das crianças avaliadas, 50% consumiram três ou mais produtos com excesso de algum dos nutrientes vinculados às DCNT. Aproximadamente 9 em cada 10 crianças consomem produtos com excesso de pelo menos um dos nutrientes críticos estudados. Conclusão: As dietas que não contêm produtos ultraprocessados e processados com excesso de açúcares livres, gordura total, gordura saturada e sódio foram a melhor opção para crianças de 2 a 4 anos. A ingestão de produtos com excesso de nutrientes críticos segundo a OPAS (e cada grama adicional consumido desses produtos) piora significativamente a qualidade da dieta e impede o cumprimento das recomendações da Organização Mundial da Saúde.

Productos procesados y ultraprocesados y su relación con la calidad de la dieta en niños

[RESUMEN]. Objetivo. Estimar el efecto que representa en la calidad de la dieta de la primera infancia uruguaya —niños de 2 a 4 años— el consumo de productos que contienen cantidades excesivas de nutrientes críticos asociados a las enfermedades no transmisibles (ENT) (azúcares libres, grasas totales, grasas saturadas y sodio), según el modelo de perfil de nutrientes de la Organización Panamericana de la Salud (OPS). Métodos. Se utilizó un recordatorio de ingesta de alimentos durante 24 horas en una muestra representativa de 401 participantes de la Encuesta de Nutrición, Desarrollo Infantil y Salud del año 2018. Se usó la clasificación de alimentos propuesta por el sistema NOVA para categorizarlos según su naturaleza y los procesos industriales a los que son sometidos. A partir de esto se lo analizó con base en el modelo de perfil de nutrientes de la OPS, lo cual permitió identificar los productos con contenido excesivo de estos nutrientes. Resultados. El 50 % de los niños consumieron tres o más productos con exceso de alguno de los nutrientes vinculados con las ENT. Aproximadamente 9 de cada 10 niños consumen productos con exceso de al menos uno de los nutrientes críticos estudiados. Conclusión. Las dietas que no contienen productos ultraprocesados y procesados con exceso de azúcares libres, grasas totales, grasas saturadas y sodio fueron la mejor opción para los niños de 2 a 4 años. La ingesta de productos con exceso de nutrientes críticos según la OPS (y cada gramo adicional consumido de tales productos) empeora la calidad de la dieta de manera significativa, e impide que se cumpla con las recomendaciones de la Organización Mundial de la Salud.

[ABSTRACT]. Objective. Estimate the impact on quality in the early childhood diet (ages 2 to 4 years) in Uruguay, resulting from consumption of products containing excessive amounts of critical nutrients associated with noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) (free sugars, total fats, saturated fats, and sodium), according to the Pan American Health Organization (PAHO) Nutrient Profile Model. Methods. A 24-hour dietary recall survey was used with a representative sample of 401 participants from the 2018 Nutrition, Child Development, and Health Survey. The NOVA classification system was used to categorize foods according to the nature and purposes of the industrial processes they undergo. Foods were then analyzed using the PAHO Nutrient Profile Model, enabling identification of products with excessive amounts of these nutrients. Results. Fifty percent of children consumed three or more products with an excess of some of the nutrients linked to NCDs. About 9 out of 10 children consume products with an excess of at least one of the critical nutrients studied. Conclusion. Diets that do not contain ultra-processed and processed products with excess free sugars, total fats, saturated fats, or sodium were the best choice for children aged 2 to 4 years. Based on PAHO criteria, the consumption of products with excess critical nutrients (and of each additional gram of these products) significantly worsens diet quality, and impedes adherence to World Health Organization recommendations.

[RESUMO]. Objetivo. Estimar o efeito do consumo de produtos que contêm quantidades excessivas de nutrientes críticos associados a doenças não transmissíveis (DCNTs) – açúcares livres, gorduras totais, gorduras saturadas e sódio –, de acordo com o modelo de perfil nutricional da Organização Pan-Americana da Saúde (OPAS), na qualidade da dieta da primeira infância uruguaia (crianças de 2 a 4 anos). Métodos. Um recordatório alimentar de 24 horas foi aplicado a uma amostra representativa de 401 participantes da Pesquisa de Nutrição, Desenvolvimento Infantil e Saúde de 2018. Foi utilizada a classificação proposta pelo sistema NOVA para categorizar os alimentos de acordo com sua natureza e os processos industriais a que são submetidos. A análise foi feita com base no modelo de perfil nutricional da OPAS, que possibilitou identificar os produtos com teor excessivo dos nutrientes supracitados. Resultados. Das crianças avaliadas, 50% consumiram três ou mais produtos com excesso de algum dos nutrientes vinculados às DCNT. Aproximadamente 9 em cada 10 crianças consomem produtos com excesso de pelo menos um dos nutrientes críticos estudados. Conclusão. As dietas que não contêm produtos ultraprocessados e processados com excesso de açúcares livres, gordura total, gordura saturada e sódio foram a melhor opção para crianças de 2 a 4 anos. A ingestão de produtos com excesso de nutrientes críticos segundo a OPAS (e cada grama adicional consumido desses produtos) piora significativamente a qualidade da dieta e impede o cumprimento das recomendações da Organização Mundial da Saúde.

Estimation of Intake of Critical Nutrients Associated with Noncommunicable Diseases According to the PAHO/WHO Criteria in the Diet of School-Age Children in Montevideo, Uruguay.

PURPOSE: To estimate the effect of the consumption of products with an excessive amount of critical nutrients associated with NCDs, according to the PAHO Nutrient Profile Model on the quality of the diet of Uruguayan school-age children (4 to 12 years). METHODS: A 24 h recall of food intake was conducted in a representative sample of 332 participants in the evaluation of the School Feeding Program in 2018 in public schools in Montevideo, Uruguay. Food and preparations were categorized according to the NOVA food classification, according to the nature, extent, and purposes of the industrial processes they undergo. Later, they were analyzed according to the Pan American Health Organization Nutrient Profile Model (PAHO NPM) to identify processed and ultra-processed products with an excessive content of critical nutrients. RESULTS: Only 0.52% of children consumed exclusively natural foods, or culinary ingredients. Twenty-five per cent of children consumed ≥4 products categorized with an excessive content of free sugars, total fat, or saturated fat according to the PAHO NPM; in the case of excessive sodium, this was 40%. In general, children who included products with excessive free sugars, sodium, or saturated fat in their diet exceeded the limits established by the World Health Organization, and, as a result, their diet is of poorer nutritional quality compared to children who did not consume such products. CONCLUSION: Diets free of ultra-processed and processed products with excess free sugars, total fats, saturated fats, and sodium increased the chances of school-age children in Montevideo of meeting WHO nutrient intake recommendations. Meanwhile, intake of each additional gram of products with excessive critical nutrients according to PAHO NPM, significantly worsens diets, preventing children from meeting WHO recommendations.

The effect of image descriptors on the performance of classifiers of footwear outsole image pairs.

Shoe prints are commonly found at the scene of a crime and can sometimes help link a suspect to the scene. Because prints tend to be partially observed or smudgy, comparing crime scene prints with reference images from a putative shoe can be challenging. Footwear examiners rely on guidelines such as those published by SWGTREAD [1] to visually assess the similarity between two or more footwear impressions, one reason being that reliable, quantitative methods have yet to be validated for use in real cases. To help in the development of such methods, we created a study dataset of images of outsole impressions that shared class characteristics and degree of wear and that were subject to a specific type of degradation. We also propose a method to quantify the similarity between two outsole images that extends the capabilities of MC-COMP [2]. The proposed method is composed of three steps; (1) extracting image descriptors, (2) aligning images using the maximum clique, (3) calculating similarity values using two different classifiers; (a) degree of overlap between the two images, and (b) a score produced by a random forest. To explore the performance of the algorithm we propose, we compared degraded, crime scene-like images to high-quality reference images produced by the same or by different shoes. Even though comparisons involved matches or very close non-matches, and one of the images was blurry, the algorithm shows good source classification performance.

Productos procesados y ultraprocesados y su relación con la calidad de la dieta en niños / Processed and ultra-processed products and their relationship to quality of diet in children / Produtos processados e ultraprocessados e sua relação com a qualidade da dieta em crianças

RESUMEN Objetivo. Estimar el efecto que representa en la calidad de la dieta de la primera infancia uruguaya —niños de 2 a 4 años— el consumo de productos que contienen cantidades excesivas de nutrientes críticos asociados a las enfermedades no transmisibles (ENT) (azúcares libres, grasas totales, grasas saturadas y sodio), según el modelo de perfil de nutrientes de la Organización Panamericana de la Salud (OPS). Métodos. Se utilizó un recordatorio de ingesta de alimentos durante 24 horas en una muestra representativa de 401 participantes de la Encuesta de Nutrición, Desarrollo Infantil y Salud del año 2018. Se usó la clasificación de alimentos propuesta por el sistema NOVA para categorizarlos según su naturaleza y los procesos industriales a los que son sometidos. A partir de esto se lo analizó con base en el modelo de perfil de nutrientes de la OPS, lo cual permitió identificar los productos con contenido excesivo de estos nutrientes. Resultados. El 50 % de los niños consumieron tres o más productos con exceso de alguno de los nutrientes vinculados con las ENT. Aproximadamente 9 de cada 10 niños consumen productos con exceso de al menos uno de los nutrientes críticos estudiados. Conclusión. Las dietas que no contienen productos ultraprocesados y procesados con exceso de azúcares libres, grasas totales, grasas saturadas y sodio fueron la mejor opción para los niños de 2 a 4 años. La ingesta de productos con exceso de nutrientes críticos según la OPS (y cada gramo adicional consumido de tales productos) empeora la calidad de la dieta de manera significativa, e impide que se cumpla con las recomendaciones de la Organización Mundial de la Salud.

ABSTRACT Objective. Estimate the impact on quality in the early childhood diet (ages 2 to 4 years) in Uruguay, resulting from consumption of products containing excessive amounts of critical nutrients associated with noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) (free sugars, total fats, saturated fats, and sodium), according to the Pan American Health Organization (PAHO) Nutrient Profile Model. Methods. A 24-hour dietary recall survey was used with a representative sample of 401 participants from the 2018 Nutrition, Child Development, and Health Survey. The NOVA classification system was used to categorize foods according to the nature and purposes of the industrial processes they undergo. Foods were then analyzed using the PAHO Nutrient Profile Model, enabling identification of products with excessive amounts of these nutrients. Results. Fifty percent of children consumed three or more products with an excess of some of the nutrients linked to NCDs. About 9 out of 10 children consume products with an excess of at least one of the critical nutrients studied. Conclusion. Diets that do not contain ultra-processed and processed products with excess free sugars, total fats, saturated fats, or sodium were the best choice for children aged 2 to 4 years. Based on PAHO criteria, the consumption of products with excess critical nutrients (and of each additional gram of these products) significantly worsens diet quality, and impedes adherence to World Health Organization recommendations.

RESUMO Objetivo. Estimar o efeito do consumo de produtos que contêm quantidades excessivas de nutrientes críticos associados a doenças não transmissíveis (DCNTs) - açúcares livres, gorduras totais, gorduras saturadas e sódio -, de acordo com o modelo de perfil nutricional da Organização Pan-Americana da Saúde (OPAS), na qualidade da dieta da primeira infância uruguaia (crianças de 2 a 4 anos). Métodos. Um recordatório alimentar de 24 horas foi aplicado a uma amostra representativa de 401 participantes da Pesquisa de Nutrição, Desenvolvimento Infantil e Saúde de 2018. Foi utilizada a classificação proposta pelo sistema NOVA para categorizar os alimentos de acordo com sua natureza e os processos industriais a que são submetidos. A análise foi feita com base no modelo de perfil nutricional da OPAS, que possibilitou identificar os produtos com teor excessivo dos nutrientes supracitados. Resultados. Das crianças avaliadas, 50% consumiram três ou mais produtos com excesso de algum dos nutrientes vinculados às DCNT. Aproximadamente 9 em cada 10 crianças consomem produtos com excesso de pelo menos um dos nutrientes críticos estudados. Conclusão. As dietas que não contêm produtos ultraprocessados e processados com excesso de açúcares livres, gordura total, gordura saturada e sódio foram a melhor opção para crianças de 2 a 4 anos. A ingestão de produtos com excesso de nutrientes críticos segundo a OPAS (e cada grama adicional consumido desses produtos) piora significativamente a qualidade da dieta e impede o cumprimento das recomendações da Organização Mundial da Saúde.

A clustering method for graphical handwriting components and statistical writership analysis.

Handwritten documents can be characterized by their content or by the shape of the written characters. We focus on the problem of comparing a person's handwriting to a document of unknown provenance using the shape of the writing, as is done in forensic applications. To do so, we first propose a method for processing scanned handwritten documents to decompose the writing into small graphical structures, often corresponding to letters. We then introduce a measure of distance between two such structures that is inspired by the graph edit distance, and a measure of center for a collection of the graphs. These measurements are the basis for an outlier tolerant K-means algorithm to cluster the graphs based on structural attributes, thus creating a template for sorting new documents. Finally, we present a Bayesian hierarchical model to capture the propensity of a writer for producing graphs that are assigned to certain clusters. We illustrate the methods using documents from the Computer Vision Lab dataset. We show results of the identification task under the cluster assignments and compare to the same modeling, but with a less flexible grouping method that is not tolerant of incidental strokes or outliers.

Quantifying the similarity of 2D images using edge pixels: an application to the forensic comparison of footwear impressions.

We propose a novel method to quantify the similarity between an impression (Q) from an unknown source and a test impression (K) from a known source. Using the property of geometrical congruence in the impressions, the degree of correspondence is quantified using ideas from graph theory and maximum clique (MC). The algorithm uses the x and y coordinates of the edges in the images as the data. We focus on local areas in Q and the corresponding regions in K and extract features for comparison. Using pairs of images with known origin, we train a random forest to classify pairs into mates and non-mates. We collected impressions from 60 pairs of shoes of the same brand and model, worn over six months. Using a different set of very similar shoes, we evaluated the performance of the algorithm in terms of the accuracy with which it correctly classified images into source classes. Using classification error rates and ROC curves, we compare the proposed method to other algorithms in the literature and show that for these data, our method shows good classification performance relative to other methods. The algorithm can be implemented with the R package shoeprintr.

Planning Nutritionally Adequate Diets for Groups: Methods Used to Develop Recommendations for a Child and Adult Care Food Program.

Planning nutritionally adequate intakes for large groups of people presents many challenges. Because of between-person variations in both food choices and nutrient requirements, it is necessary to examine nutrient intake distributions and select a Target Median Intake (TMI) that will lead to a low prevalence of inadequate nutrient intakes. The TMI may then be used to guide a feeding or education program. A comprehensive report from the Institute of Medicine evaluated nutrient intakes from the NHANES and recommended new meal patterns for all age groups (other than infants) served by the Child and Adult Day Care Food Program, which provides meals and snacks to children and adults in a variety of care settings. The Estimated Average Requirement, a DRI value, for each nutrient of interest was used to estimate both the prevalence of inadequate intakes as well as the changes in the intake distribution that are needed to reduce unacceptably high levels of inadequacy. For nutrients with an Adequate Intake (AI), the prevalence of inadequacy could not be estimated, but the AI could be used as the TMI. Simultaneously, it was important to ensure that the new intake distributions did not result in intakes that exceeded the Tolerable Upper Intake Level for any nutrient. Data for 2- to 4-y-old children are presented in detail to illustrate this process. Of 18 nutrients examined, analyses showed that intakes of vitamin E, potassium, and fiber should be increased, while intakes of sodium should be decreased. If more recent nutrient standards are used, revised assessments show that calcium intake should also be increased, while potassium intake is adequate. These methods and results should be useful when designing feeding programs for other population groups within the United States, as well as in other countries.

Knot selection in sparse Gaussian processes with a variational objective function.

Sparse, knot-based Gaussian processes have enjoyed considerable success as scalable approximations of full Gaussian processes. Certain sparse models can be derived through specific variational approximations to the true posterior, and knots can be selected to minimize the Kullback-Leibler divergence between the approximate and true posterior. While this has been a successful approach, simultaneous optimization of knots can be slow due to the number of parameters being optimized. Furthermore, there have been few proposed methods for selecting the number of knots, and no experimental results exist in the literature. We propose using a one-at-a-time knot selection algorithm based on Bayesian optimization to select the number and locations of knots. We showcase the competitive performance of this method relative to optimization of knots simultaneously on three benchmark datasets, but at a fraction of the computational cost.

A database of two-dimensional images of footwear outsole impressions.

Footwear outsole images were obtained from 150 pairs of used shoes. The motivation for constructing the database was to enable a statistical analysis of two-dimensional (2D) images of shoe outsoles, to understand within shoe (between replicate images of the same shoe) and between shoe variability, and to develop methods for the evaluation of forensic pattern evidence of shoeprints. Since we scanned the outsole of the used shoes, the images capture not only the outsole pattern design but also the marks that arise from wear and tear and that may help identify the shoe that made the impression. Each shoe in a pair was scanned five times, so that replicate images can be used to estimate within-shoe variability. In total, there are 1500 2D images in the database. The EverOS footwear scanner was used to capture the outsole of each shoe. The scanner detects the weight distribution of the person wearing the shoe when he or she steps on the scanning surface. It images the portions of the outsole that make contact with the scanning surface. The database is a useful resource for forensic scientists or for anybody else with an interest in image comparison. The database we describe, was constructed by researchers in the Center for Statistics and Applications in Forensic Evidence (CSAFE) at Iowa State University.

A database of elemental compositions of architectural float glass samples measured by LA-ICP-MS.

We measured the elemental chemical composition of architectural float glass fragments using inductively coupled mass spectrometry with a laser ablation add-in. Measurements of 18 elemental concentrations were obtained from each fragment at each measurement occasion. These data can be used for statistical analysis with the purpose of evaluating forensic trace evidence. The data collection and measurement process in this database were carefully designed by the authors to enable understanding similarities and differences in elemental composition within a fragment, between fragments within a pane, between panes produced by the same manufacturer, and between manufacturers, to help in forensic glass evaluation. We received 48 panes that were produced on consecutive days, from two glass manufacturers in the U.S. Half of each pane was broken into small fragments and 24 fragments were randomly sampled from each half pane. To compute well-conditioned estimates of high-dimensional covariance matrices at all levels, we replicated measurements on each fragment; for three of the 24 fragments from a pane, we obtained 20 replicate measurements, and for the other 21 fragments, we made five replicate measurements. Analytical procedures to carry out the measurements followed the protocols recommended for forensic float glass samples by ENFSI [1] and the ASTM [2]. The database described in this article is related to two published research articles, "Learning algorithms to evaluate forensic glass evidence" by Park and Carriquiry (2019) [3] and "Evaluation and comparison of methods for forensic glass source conclusions" by Park and Tyner (2019) [4].

An algorithm to compare two-dimensional footwear outsole images using maximum cliques and speeded-up robust feature.

Footwear examiners are tasked with comparing an outsole impression (Q) left at a crime scene with an impression (K) from a database or from the suspect's shoe. We propose a method for comparing two shoe outsole impressions that relies on robust features (speeded-up robust feature; SURF) on each impression and aligns them using a maximum clique (MC). After alignment, an algorithm we denote MC-COMP is used to extract additional features that are then combined into a univariate similarity score using a random forest (RF). We use a database of shoe outsole impressions that includes images from two models of athletic shoes that were purchased new and then worn by study participants for about 6 months. The shoes share class characteristics such as outsole pattern and size, and thus the comparison is challenging. We find that the RF implemented on SURF outperforms other methods recently proposed in the literature in terms of classification precision. In more realistic scenarios where crime scene impressions may be degraded and smudged, the algorithm we propose-denoted MC-COMP-SURF-shows the best classification performance by detecting unique features better than other methods. The algorithm can be implemented with the R-package shoeprintr.