ABSTRACT
Despite being the most cost-effective tobacco control policy, tobacco taxation is the least implemented of the WHO MPOWER package to reduce smoking worldwide. In Mexico, both smoking prevalence and taxation have remained stable for more than a decade. This study aims to provide evidence about the potential effects of taxation to reduce the burden of tobacco-related diseases and the main attributable social costs in Mexico, including informal (unpaid) care costs, which are frequently ignored. We employ a first-order Monte Carlo microsimulation model that follows hypothetical population cohorts considering the risks of an adverse health event and death. First, we estimate tobacco-attributable morbidity and mortality, direct medical costs, and indirect costs, such as labour productivity losses and informal care costs. Then, we assess the potential effects of a 50% cigarette price increase through taxation and two alternative scenarios of 25% and 75%. The inputs come from several sources, including national surveys and vital statistics. Each year, 63,000 premature deaths and 427,000 disease events are attributable to tobacco in Mexico, while social costs amount to MX$194.6 billion (US$8.5) -MX$116.2 (US$5.1) direct medical costs and MX$78.5 (US$3.4) indirect costs-, representing 0.8% of GDP. Current tobacco tax revenue barely covers 23.3% of these costs. Increasing cigarette prices through taxation by 50% could reduce premature deaths by 49,000 over the next decade, while direct and indirect costs averted would amount to MX$87.9 billion (US$3.8) and MX$67.6 billion (US$2.9), respectively. The benefits would far outweigh any potential loss even in a pessimistic scenario of increased illicit trade. Tobacco use imposes high social costs on the Mexican population, but tobacco taxation is a win-win policy both for gaining population health as well as reducing tobacco societal costs.
ABSTRACT
El consumo de tabaco es, todavía, uno de los principales factores de riesgo de morbilidad y mortalidad en todo el mundo. Sin embargo, las acciones realizadas para el control del tabaco en las últimas décadas, en especial desde la llegada del Convenio Marco para el Control del Tabaco (CMCT) de la Organización Mundial de la Salud (OMS) y su ratificación por diversas partes, han llevado a una notable reducción de la prevalencia del consumo de tabaco. Debido a estos avances, en diferentes países se ha producido un cambio del paradigma del control del tabaco al de “fin del juego”. En el pasado, el concepto de “fin del juego” no estaba definido con claridad, pero en la actualidad se suele concretar en los objetivos de reducir la prevalencia del consumo de tabaco por debajo de un umbral (p. ej., por debajo de 5%) o lograr generaciones libres de tabaco en un plazo determinado (p. ej., antes del año 2030) en un territorio específico. El objetivo final es acabar con la epidemia de consumo de tabaco, en lugar de controlarla.
Subject(s)
Tobacco Use , Tobacco-Derived Products Publicity , Taxation of the Tobacco-Derived Products , Costa RicaABSTRACT
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ABSTRACT
Tobacco tax increases, the most cost-effective measure in reducing consumption, remain underutilized in low and middle-income countries. This study estimates the health and economic burden of smoking in Argentina and forecasts the benefits of tobacco tax hikes, accounting for the potential effects of illicit trade. Using a probabilistic Markov microsimulation model, this study quantifies smoking-related deaths, health events, and societal costs. The model also estimates the health and economic benefits of different increases in the price of cigarettes through taxes. Annually, smoking causes 45,000 deaths and 221,000 health events in Argentina, costing USD 2782 million in direct medical expenses, USD 1470 million in labor productivity loss costs, and USD 1069 million in informal care costs-totaling 1.2% of the national gross domestic product. Even in a scenario that considers illicit trade of tobacco products, a 50% cigarette price increase through taxes could yield USD 8292 million in total economic benefits accumulated over a decade. Consequently, raising tobacco taxes could significantly reduce the health and economic burdens of smoking in Argentina while increasing fiscal revenue.
Subject(s)
Tobacco Products , Humans , Argentina/epidemiology , Smoking/epidemiology , Taxes , CommerceABSTRACT
INTRODUCTION: Tobacco consumption is associated with nearly 30 000 deaths annually in Nigeria alongside other adverse health and economic effects. Our objective was to estimate the health and economic implications of the current cigarette labeling policies (text-only HWs); new health warnings policies in the country (adding graphic health warnings with up to 60% coverage), and plain packaging policy as recommended by the World Health Organization. AIMS AND METHODS: We used a probabilistic state-transition individual microsimulation model, considering natural history, healthcare costs, and quality-of-life losses associated with main tobacco-attributable diseases; and the potential effects of packaging and labeling policies. We used three scenarios: (1) text-only health warnings (HWs) covering 50% of the pack, (2) introduction of graphic HWs of 50% (and later increasing to 80%) of the pack, and (3) plain packaging with HWs covering 80% of the pack. RESULTS: A total of 748 deaths are averted in the current situation; 7478 and 14 208 deaths can be averted with the new policy and with plain packaging, respectively. The number of cardiac, cerebrovascular, and cancer events that could be averted by adopting text and graphic HWs are 3093, 5093, and 1346, respectively; increasing to 5876, 9676, and 2557, respectively, with plain packaging. Up to 251 794 years were lost because of early deaths and disability, and â¦144.6 billion (USD 469 million) in health costs could be saved with HWs covering 50% to 80% of the pack over 10 years. With plain packaging and graphic HWs covering 80% of the package 478,408 years and â¦274.7 billion (USD 895 million) would be saved. CONCLUSIONS: The new cigarette labeling policy in Nigeria may yield significant health and economic benefits over 10 years. Moving the current policy to plain packaging can significantly improve these benefits. IMPLICATIONS: The new cigarette labeling policy that Nigeria is implementing should aim to achieve 100% compliance with its current regulation and the logical next step: Plain packaging with large warnings. The present study adds evidence of the potential health effects and cost savings of these levels of implementation, which is valuable for local policymakers.
Subject(s)
Tobacco Products , Humans , Nigeria/epidemiology , Product Packaging , Product LabelingABSTRACT
OBJECTIVE: To investigate the tobacco-attributable burden on disease, medical costs, productivity losses and informal caregiving; and to estimate the health and economic gains that can be achieved if the main tobacco control measures (raising taxes on tobacco, plain packaging, advertising bans and smoke-free environments) are fully implemented in eight countries that encompass 80% of the Latin American population. DESIGN: Markov probabilistic microsimulation economic model of the natural history, costs and quality of life associated with the main tobacco-related diseases. Model inputs and data on labour productivity, informal caregivers' burden and interventions' effectiveness were obtained through literature review, surveys, civil registrations, vital statistics and hospital databases. Epidemiological and economic data from January to October 2020 were used to populate the model. FINDINGS: In these eight countries, smoking is responsible each year for 351 000 deaths, 2.25 million disease events, 12.2 million healthy years of life lost, US$22.8 billion in direct medical costs, US$16.2 billion in lost productivity and US$10.8 billion in caregiver costs. These economic losses represent 1.4% of countries' aggregated gross domestic products. The full implementation and enforcement of the four strategies: taxes, plain packaging, advertising bans and smoke-free environments would avert 271 000, 78 000, 71 000 and 39 000 deaths, respectively, in the next 10 years, and result in US$63.8, US$12.3, US$11.4 and US$5.7 billions in economic gains, respectively, on top of the benefits being achieved today by the current level of implementation of these measures. CONCLUSIONS: Smoking represents a substantial burden in Latin America. The full implementation of tobacco control measures could successfully avert deaths and disability, reduce healthcare spending and caregiver and productivity losses, likely resulting in large net economic benefits.
ABSTRACT
BACKGROUND: Informal care is a key element of health care and well-being for society, yet it is scarcely visible and rarely studied in health economic evaluations. This study aims to estimate the time use and cost associated with informal care for cardiovascular diseases, pneumonia and ten different cancers in eight Latin American countries (Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Ecuador, Mexico and Peru). METHODS: We carried out an exhaustive literature review on informal caregivers' time use, focusing on the selected diseases. We developed a survey for professional caregivers and conducted expert interviews to validate this data in the local context. We used an indirect estimate through the interpolation of the available data, for those cases in which we do not found reliable information. We used the proxy good method to estimate the monetary value of the use of time of informal care. National household surveys databases were processed to obtain the average wage per hour of a proxy of informal caregiver. Estimates were expressed in 2020 US dollars. RESULTS: The study estimated approximately 1,900 million hours of informal care annually and $ 4,300 million per year in average informal care time cost for these fifteen diseases and eight countries analyzed. Cardiovascular diseases accounted for an informal care burden that ranged from 374 to 555 h per year, while cancers varied from 512 to 1,825 h per year. The informal care time cost share on GDP varied from 0.26% (Mexico) to 1.38% (Brazil), with an average of 0.82% in the studied American countries. Informal care time cost represents between 16 and 44% of the total economic cost (direct medical and informal care cost) associated with health conditions. CONCLUSIONS: The study shows that there is a significant informal care economic burden -frequently overlooked- in different chronic and acute diseases in Latin American countries; and highlights the relevance of including the economic value of informal care in economic evaluations of healthcare.
Subject(s)
Caregivers , Patient Care , Humans , Cardiovascular Diseases/therapy , Caregivers/economics , Latin America , Neoplasms/therapy , Costs and Cost Analysis , Pneumonia/therapy , Patient Care/economics , Patient Care/statistics & numerical data , Time FactorsABSTRACT
Introduction: Tobacco use has significant health consequences in Latin America, and while studies have examined the overall impact, the gender-specific effects have not been thoroughly researched. Understanding these differences is crucial for effective tobacco control policies. The objective of this study was to explore the differences in tobacco-attributable disease and economic burden between men and women in Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Ecuador, Mexico, and Peru. Methods: We used a previously validated economic model to quantify the impact of tobacco-related illnesses, including morbidity, mortality, healthcare costs, productivity losses, informal care expenses, and DALYs, by gender and age. We utilized data from national surveys, records, studies, and expert opinions to populate the model. Results: In 2020, there were 351,000 smoking-attributable deaths. Men accounted for 69% and women 31%. Ecuador and Mexico had the highest male-to-female death ratio, while Peru and Chile had the smallest disparities. 2.3 million tobacco-related disease events occurred, with 65% in men and 35% in women. Ecuador and Mexico had higher disease rates among men, while Peru had a more balanced ratio. Regarding DALYs, men lost 6.3 million due to tobacco, while women lost 3.3 million, primarily from COPD, cardiovascular disease, and cancer. Brazil and Mexico had the highest DALY losses for both genders. Costa Rica had a lower male-to-female tobacco use prevalence ratio but ranked second in deaths, disease events, and DALYs attributed to tobacco. Colombia had a unique pattern with a male-to-female death ratio of 2.08 but a higher ratio for disease events. The health systems spent $22.8 billion to treat tobacco-attributable diseases, with a male-to-female cost ratio 2.15. Ecuador showed the greatest gender cost difference, while Peru had the lowest. Productivity loss due to tobacco was $16.2 billion, with Ecuador and Mexico exhibiting the highest gender disparities and Peru the lowest. Informal care costs amounted to $10.8 billion, with men incurring higher costs in Ecuador, Costa Rica, and Mexico. Discussion: Tobacco causes significant health and economic burdens in Latin America, with gender-based differences. There is a need for gender-disaggregated data to improve tobacco control policies.
Subject(s)
Financial Stress , Smoking , Female , Male , Humans , Latin America/epidemiology , Mexico , Smoking/epidemiology , Tobacco ProductsABSTRACT
BACKGROUND: Globally, tobacco consumption continues to cause a considerable burden of preventable diseases. Although the smoking prevalence in Nigeria may be declining over the last years, the absolute number of active smokers remains one of the highest in Africa. Little is known about the disease burden and economic costs of cigarette smoking in Nigeria. Consequently, there is an evidence gap to inform the design and implementation of an effective policy for tobacco control. METHODS: We applied a microsimulation model to estimate the burden attributable to smoking in terms of morbidity, mortality, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and direct medical costs and indirect costs (e.g., productivity loss costs, informal caregivers' costs). We also modeled the health and economic impact of different scenarios of tobacco price increases through taxes. RESULTS: We estimated that smoking is responsible for approximately 29,000 annual deaths in Nigeria. This burden corresponds to 816,230 DALYs per year. In 2019, the total economic burden attributable to tobacco was estimated at ⦠634 billion annually (approximately U$D 2.07 billion). If tobacco cigarettes' prices were to be raised by 50% through taxes, more than 30,000 deaths from smoking-attributable diseases would be averted in 10 years, with subsequent savings on direct and indirect costs of â¦597 billion and increased tax revenue collection of â¦369 billion. CONCLUSION: In Nigeria, tobacco is responsible for substantial health and economic burden. Increasing tobacco taxes could reduce this burden and produce net economic benefits.