ABSTRACT
In 2012, the World Health Organization Regional Committee for the Western Pacific Region (WPR) reaffirmed its commitment to eliminate measles and urged WPR member states to interrupt endemic measles virus transmission as rapidly as possible. In 2013, a large measles outbreak occurred in the Philippines despite implementation of measles elimination strategies including a nationwide supplemental immunization activity (SIA) in 2011 using measles- and rubella-containing vaccine and targeting children aged nine months to seven years. To prevent future measles outbreaks a new tool was developed to assess district-level risk for measles outbreaks, based on the WPR polio risk assessment tool previously applied in the Philippines. Risk was assessed as a function of combined indicator scores from four data input categories: population immunity, surveillance quality, program performance, and threat assessment. On the basis of the overall score, the tool assigned each district a risk category of low, medium, high, or very high. Of the 122 districts and highly urbanized cities in the Philippines, 58 (48%) were classified as high risk or very high risk, including the district of the Metro Manila area and Region 4A where the outbreak began in 2013. Risk assessment results were used to guide the monitoring and supervision during the nationwide SIA conducted in 2014. The initial tool drafted in the Philippines served as a template for development of the global risk assessment tool. Regular annual measles programmatic risk assessments can be used to help plan risk mitigation activities and measure progress toward measles elimination.
