Estimating spatiotemporally varying malaria reproduction numbers in a near elimination setting.

In 2016 the World Health Organization identified 21 countries that could eliminate malaria by 2020. Monitoring progress towards this goal requires tracking ongoing transmission. Here we develop methods that estimate individual reproduction numbers and their variation through time and space. Individual reproduction numbers, Rc, describe the state of transmission at a point in time and differ from mean reproduction numbers, which are averages of the number of people infected by a typical case. We assess elimination progress in El Salvador using data for confirmed cases of malaria from 2010 to 2016. Our results demonstrate that whilst the average number of secondary malaria cases was below one (0.61, 95% CI 0.55-0.65), individual reproduction numbers often exceeded one. We estimate a decline in Rc between 2010 and 2016. However we also show that if importation is maintained at the same rate, the country may not achieve malaria elimination by 2020.

Factors Associated with the Rapid and Durable Decline in Malaria Incidence in El Salvador, 1980-2017.

A decade after the Global Malaria Eradication Program, El Salvador had the highest burden of malaria in Mesoamerica, with approximately 20% due to Plasmodium falciparum. A resurgence of malaria in the 1970s led El Salvador to alter its national malaria control strategy. By 1995, El Salvador recorded its last autochthonous P. falciparum case with fewer than 20 Plasmodium vivax cases annually since 2011. By contrast, its immediate neighbors continue to have the highest incidences of malaria in the region. We reviewed and evaluated the policies and interventions implemented by the Salvadoran National Malaria Program that likely contributed to this progress toward malaria elimination. Decentralization of the malaria program, early regional stratification by risk, and data-driven stratum-specific actions resulted in the timely and targeted allocation of resources for vector control, surveillance, case detection, and treatment. Weekly reporting by health workers and volunteer collaborators-distributed throughout the country by strata and informed via the national surveillance system-enabled local malaria teams to provide rapid, adaptive, and focalized program actions. Sustained investments in surveillance and response have led to a dramatic reduction in local transmission, with most current malaria cases in El Salvador due to importation from neighboring countries. Additional support for systematic elimination efforts in neighboring countries would benefit the region and may be needed for El Salvador to achieve and maintain malaria elimination. El Salvador's experience provides a relevant case study that can guide the application of similar strategies in other countries committed to malaria elimination.

Acute Chagas disease in El Salvador 2000-2012 - need for surveillance and control.

Several parasitological studies carried out in El Salvador between 2000-2012 showed a higher frequency of acute cases of Chagas disease than that in other Central American countries. There is an urgent need for improved Chagas disease surveillance and vector control programs in the provinces where acute Chagas disease occurs and throughout El Salvador as a whole.

Chagas disease: assessing the existence of a threshold for bug infestation rate.

To examine the existence of a possible threshold for the domestic infestation rate of Triatoma dimidiata, below which transmission becomes unlikely, a census was conducted in 59 Chagas disease endemic communities of El Salvador and Honduras. Entomological and serological tests were conducted targeting 4,083 households and 6,324 children between 6 months and 15 years of age. The overall domestic infestation rate of Triatoma dimidiata and seroprevalence among children were 12.9% and 0.49%, respectively. Communities with a domestic infestation rate at 8% or less consistently showed a seroprevalence of 0%. In communities with a domestic infestation rate above 8%, there was a wide range in seroprevalence. A domestic infestation rate of 8% could serve as the possible threshold below which transmission would become unlikely. The implementation of an 8% threshold for determining needs for universal insecticide spraying would lead to a 21% reduction in spraying-related costs.