Niche partitioning and the storage effect facilitate coexistence in an amphibian community.

Virtually all natural community assemblages are dominated by a handful of common species. Dominant species can exert negative impacts on biodiversity through competitive exclusion, and thus there is a strong incentive to understand imbalances in community composition, changes in dominance hierarchies through time, and mechanisms of coexistence. Pond-breeding amphibians that utilize ephemeral wetlands provide an excellent opportunity to evaluate theoretical predictions of community composition in stochastic environments. One of the most striking features of pond-breeding amphibians is the marked stochastic fluctuations in abundance across years. Given strong theoretical and empirical links between evenness and biomass, one would expect community evenness to change from year to year. Moreover, if different species exhibit different boom-and-bust reproductive cycles, then a storage effect may help to explain why one species does not outcompete all others. Here, we explore the interplay between biotic and abiotic conditions in shaping amphibian communities at two ephemeral wetlands on Eglin Air Force Base, Florida. We document consistent community composition over 6 years of monitoring, resulting from a lack of species turnover and similar responses of all community members to environmental conditions. The similar dynamics of species argues against a storage effect as the sole mechanism for coexistence and instead points to niche partitioning as a more important factor. In support of this conclusion, we show that the degree of synchrony in breeding migrations only correlates with environmental conditions within species, not between species. The lack of pattern seen between species implies that individuals are somewhat constrained in the timing of breeding migrations, perhaps owing in part to competition with other community members. We hope that our work reinvigorates interest in amphibian communities and highlights ephemeral wetlands as model systems to study community dynamics in stochastic environments.

Forecasting the flooding dynamics of flatwoods salamander breeding wetlands under future climate change scenarios.

Ephemeral wetlands are globally important systems that are regulated by regular cycles of wetting and drying, which are primarily controlled by responses to relatively short-term weather events (e.g., precipitation and evapotranspiration). Climate change is predicted to have significant effects on many ephemeral wetland systems and the organisms that depend on them through altered filling or drying dates that impact hydroperiod. To examine the potential effects of climate change on pine flatwoods wetlands in the southeastern United States, we created statistical models describing wetland hydrologic regime using an approximately 8-year history of water level monitoring and a variety of climate data inputs. We then assessed how hydrology may change in the future by projecting models forward (2025-2100) under six future climate scenarios (three climate models each with two emission scenarios). We used the model results to assess future breeding conditions for the imperiled Reticulated Flatwoods Salamander (Ambystoma bishopi), which breeds in many of the study wetlands. We found that models generally fit the data well and had good predictability across both training and testing data. Across all models and climate scenarios, there was substantial variation in the predicted suitability for flatwoods salamander reproduction. However, wetlands with longer hydroperiods tended to have fewer model iterations that predicted at least five consecutive years of reproductive failure (an important metric for population persistence). Understanding potential future risk to flatwoods salamander populations can be used to guide conservation and management actions for this imperiled species.

Is the future female for turtles? Climate change and wetland configuration predict sex ratios of a freshwater species.

Climate change and land-use change are leading drivers of biodiversity decline, affecting demographic parameters that are important for population persistence. For example, scientists have speculated for decades that climate change may skew adult sex ratios in taxa that express temperature-dependent sex determination (TSD), but limited evidence exists that this phenomenon is occurring in natural settings. For species that are vulnerable to anthropogenic land-use practices, differential mortality among sexes may also skew sex ratios. We sampled the spotted turtle (Clemmys guttata), a freshwater species with TSD, across a large portion of its geographic range (Florida to Maine), to assess the environmental factors influencing adult sex ratios. We present evidence that suggests recent climate change has potentially skewed the adult sex ratio of spotted turtles, with samples following a pattern of increased proportions of females concomitant with warming trends, but only within the warmer areas sampled. At intermediate temperatures, there was no relationship with climate, while in the cooler areas we found the opposite pattern, with samples becoming more male biased with increasing temperatures. These patterns might be explained in part by variation in relative adaptive capacity via phenotypic plasticity in nest site selection. Our findings also suggest that spotted turtles have a context-dependent and multi-scale relationship with land use. We observed a negative relationship between male proportion and the amount of crop cover (within 300 m) when wetlands were less spatially aggregated. However, when wetlands were aggregated, sex ratios remained consistent. This pattern may reflect sex-specific patterns in movement that render males more vulnerable to mortality from agricultural machinery and other threats. Our findings highlight the complexity of species' responses to both climate change and land use, and emphasize the role that landscape structure can play in shaping wildlife population demographics.

Cryptosporidium serpentis Surveillance in Free-Ranging Snakes to Inform a Reintroduction Strategy for the Eastern Indigo Snake (Drymarchon couperi).

Understanding risk factors associated with reintroductions is important for making informed decisions within an adaptive framework. Biosecurity measures minimizing the risk of the introduction or spread of transmissible diseases are a priority when considering the release of captive-reared wildlife. Eastern indigo snake (EIS; Drymarchon couperi) reintroductions have been occurring in Alabama since 2010 and in Florida since 2017. During this effort the pathogen Cryptosporidium serpentis was detected, affecting several of the captive breeding snakes. Infected snakes were quarantined and removed from breeding efforts, which reduced snakes available for the reintroduction projects. To make informed management decisions about future reintroduction strategies, 155 free-ranging snakes were sampled at the two release sites and a third site in Georgia to evaluate the natural occurrence of C. serpentis. Additionally, 72 free-ranging EIS and other species incidentally encountered throughout the EIS range were tested opportunistically. All snakes sampled at the three focal sites tested negative, but one opportunistically tested EIS from South Florida tested positive. These results indicate that C. serpentis is present in the environment in at least one location, but at low levels. Our results suggest that, pending additional surveillance, C. serpentispositive snakes should not be included in reintroduction efforts, and that maintaining a high level of biosecurity is important in captive breeding programs.

Accounting for geographic variation in species-habitat associations during habitat suitability modeling.

Range-wide species conservation efforts are facilitated by spatially explicit estimates of habitat suitability. However, species-environment relationships often vary geographically and models assuming geographically constant relationships may result in misleading inferences. We present the first range-wide habitat suitability model (HSM) for the federally threatened eastern indigo snake (Drymarchon couperi) as a case study illustrating an approach to account for known latitudinal variation in habitat associations. Specifically, we modeled habitat suitability using interactive relationships between minimum winter temperature and several a priori environmental covariates and compared our results to those from models assuming geographically constant relationships. We found that multi-scale models including interactive effects with winter temperature outperformed single-scale models and models not including interactive effects with winter temperature. Our top-ranked model had suitable range-wide predictive performance and identified numerous large (i.e., ≥1000 ha) potential habitat patches throughout the indigo snake range. Predictive performance was greatest in southern Georgia and northern Florida likely reflecting more restrictive indigo snake habitat associations in these regions. This study illustrates how modeling interactive effects between temperature and environmental covariates can improve the performance of HSMs across geographically varying environmental gradients.

Does long-term fire suppression impact leaf litter breakdown and aquatic invertebrate colonization in pine flatwoods wetlands?

Ephemeral wetlands are commonly embedded within pine uplands of the southeastern United States. These wetlands support diverse communities but have often been degraded by a lack of growing-season fires that historically maintained the vegetation structure. In the absence of fire, wetlands develop a dense mid-story of woody vegetation that increases canopy cover and decreases the amount of herbaceous vegetation. To understand how reduced fire frequency impacts wetland processes, we measured leaf litter breakdown rates and invertebrate communities using three common plant species (Longleaf Pine (Pinus palustris), Pineland Threeawn Grass (Aristida stricta), and Black Gum (Nyssa sylvatica)) that occur in pine flatwoods wetlands located on Eglin Air Force Base, Florida. We also tested whether or not the overall habitat type within a wetland (fire maintained or fire suppressed) affected these processes. We placed leaf packs containing 15.0 g of dried leaf litter from each species in both fire-maintained and fire-suppressed sections of three wetlands, removing them after 103-104 days submerged in the wetland. The amount of leaf litter remaining at the end of the study varied across species (N. sylvatica = 7.97 ± 0.17 g, A. stricta = 11.84 ± 0.06 g, and P. palustris = 11.37 ± 0.07 g (mean ± SE)) and was greater in fire-maintained habitat (leaf type: F 2,45 = 437.2, P < 0.001; habitat type: F 1,45 = 4.6, P = 0.037). We identified an average of 260 ± 33.5 (SE) invertebrates per leaf pack (range: 19-1,283), and the most abundant taxonomic groups were Cladocera, Isopoda, Acariformes, and Diptera. Invertebrate relative abundance varied significantly among litter species (approximately 39.9 ± 9.4 invertebrates per gram of leaf litter remaining in N. sylvatica leaf packs, 27.2 ± 5.3 invertebrates per gram of A. stricta, and 14.6 ± 3.1 invertebrates per gram of P. palustris (mean ± SE)) but not habitat type. However, both habitat (pseudo-F1,49 = 4.30, P = 0.003) and leaf litter type (pseudo-F2,49 = 3.62, P = 0.001) had a significant effect on invertebrate community composition. Finally, this work was part of ongoing projects focusing on the conservation of the critically imperiled Reticulated Flatwoods Salamander (Ambystoma bishopi), which breeds exclusively in pine flatwoods wetlands, and we examined the results as they relate to potential prey items for larval flatwoods salamanders. Overall, our results suggest that the vegetation changes associated with a lack of growing-season fires can impact both invertebrate communities and leaf litter breakdown.

Publisher Correction: Ophidiomycosis surveillance of snakes in Georgia, USA reveals new host species and taxonomic associations with disease.

An amendment to this paper has been published and can be accessed via a link at the top of the paper.

Ophidiomycosis surveillance of snakes in Georgia, USA reveals new host species and taxonomic associations with disease.

Ophidiomycosis (snake fungal disease) is caused by the fungus Ophidiomyces ophiodiicola and threatens snake health worldwide. It has been documented throughout the eastern United States and severe cases have recently been reported in Georgia, USA. To evaluate disease distribution and prevalence in this state, 786 free-ranging snakes were examined for skin lesions consistent with ophidiomycosis and swabbed to detect O. ophiodiicola DNA using qPCR. Sampled snakes represented 34 species and 4 families; 27.5% had skin lesions, 13.3% were positive for O. ophiodiicola DNA, and 77.8% of the qPCR positive individuals had skin lesions. This is the first report of O. ophiodiicola in five of the 22 species that were qPCR positive. Multinomial logistic regression modeling indicated that Drymarchon couperi had a higher relative risk of apparent ophidiomycosis (lesions present and qPCR positive), and the best models predicting qPCR result and ophidiomycosis category included individual factors and excluded temporal and spatial factors. Phylogeny-based bipartite network analysis showed that Nerodia erythrogaster, Nerodia taxispilota, and D. couperi had the highest prevalence of apparent ophidiomycosis; this category was more prevalent in the subfamily Colubrinae and less prevalent in Natricinae. These results provide important information about ophidiomycosis epidemiology, which has implications for snake conservation.

Ophidiomycosis prevalence in Georgia's Eastern Indigo Snake (Drymarchon couperi) populations.

Wildlife diseases have posed a significant challenge to the conservation of many species in recent years. Diseases have been implicated in population declines over large geographic areas, with severe disease outbreaks leading to either local or complete extinctions of wild populations. Ophidiomycosis, commonly known as snake fungal disease, is caused by the fungus Ophidiomyces ophiodiicola, which has been documented in snake populations across the eastern and southern United States. We collected swab samples from the federally threatened Eastern Indigo Snake (Drymarchon couperi) in populations across the species' Georgia range. We used quantitative PCR to determine the presence of O. ophiodiicola DNA and also recorded skin abnormalities characteristic of ophidiomycosis. From 1 September 2016 to 4 August 2018, Eastern Indigo Snakes tested positive for O. ophiodiicola DNA on 47 of 107 occasions (43.9%) and tested negative for fungal DNA but had skin lesions consistent with ophidiomycosis on 42 occasions (39.3%). Symptomatic and qPCR positive individuals were more likely to be encountered during January and February when compared to November and December. We found no effect of sex (p = 0.517), age-class (p = 0.106), or body size (snout-vent length: p = 0.083; mass: p = 0.206; body condition: p = 0.063) on ophidiomycosis status. Over the two-year study, we encountered individuals in which infection was clearly negatively impacting overall health and also documented individuals in which infection apparently cleared from one year to the next. These results demonstrate that O. ophiodiicola and lesions characteristic of ophidiomycosis are widespread in Georgia's Eastern Indigo Snake populations. However, there are many unanswered questions regarding this disease, including the effects of disease on populations and individuals, the presence of infection vectors, and the change in prevalence over time. More research is needed to address ophidiomycosis and understand its impacts on ongoing conservation efforts.

Hindcasting Historical Breeding Conditions for an Endangered Salamander in Ephemeral Wetlands of the Southeastern USA: Implications of Climate Change.

The hydroperiod of ephemeral wetlands is often the most important characteristic determining amphibian breeding success, especially for species with long development times. In mesic and wet pine flatwoods of the southeastern United States, ephemeral wetlands were a common landscape feature. Reticulated flatwoods salamanders (Ambystoma bishopi), a federally endangered species, depend exclusively on ephemeral wetlands and require at least 11 weeks to successfully metamorphose into terrestrial adults. We empirically modeled hydroperiod of 17 A. bishopi breeding wetlands by combining downscaled historical climate-model data with a recent 9-year record (2006-2014) of observed water levels. Empirical models were subsequently used to reconstruct wetland hydrologic conditions from 1896-2014 using the downscaled historical climate datasets. Reconstructed hydroperiods for the 17 wetlands were highly variable through time but were frequently unfavorable for A. bishopi reproduction (e.g., only 61% of years, using a conservative estimate of development time [12 weeks], were conducive to larval development and metamorphosis). Using change-point analysis, we identified significant shifts in average hydroperiod over the last century in all 17 wetlands. Mean hydroperiods were shorter in recent years than at any other point since 1896, and thus less suitable for A. bishopi reproduction. We suggest that climate change will continue to impact the reproductive success of flatwoods salamanders and other ephemeral wetland breeders by reducing the number of years these wetlands have suitable hydroperiods. Consequently, we emphasize the importance of conservation and management for mitigating other forms of habitat degradation, especially maintenance of high quality breeding sites where reproduction can occur during appropriate environmental conditions.