Achieving a "step change" in the tuberculosis epidemic through comprehensive community-wide intervention: a model-based analysis.

BACKGROUND: Global progress towards reducing tuberculosis (TB) incidence and mortality has consistently lagged behind the World Health Organization targets leading to a perception that large reductions in TB burden cannot be achieved. However, several recent and historical trials suggest that intervention efforts that are comprehensive and intensive can have a substantial epidemiological impact. We aimed to quantify the potential epidemiological impact of an intensive but realistic, community-wide campaign utilizing existing tools and designed to achieve a "step change" in the TB burden. METHODS: We developed a compartmental model that resembled TB transmission and epidemiology of a mid-sized city in India, the country with the greatest absolute TB burden worldwide. We modeled the impact of a one-time, community-wide screening campaign, with treatment for TB disease and preventive therapy for latent TB infection (LTBI). This one-time intervention was followed by the strengthening of the tuberculosis-related health system, potentially facilitated by leveraging the one-time campaign. We estimated the tuberculosis cases and deaths that could be averted over 10 years using this comprehensive approach and assessed the contributions of individual components of the intervention. RESULTS: A campaign that successfully screened 70% of the adult population for active and latent tuberculosis and subsequently reduced diagnostic and treatment delays and unsuccessful treatment outcomes by 50% was projected to avert 7800 (95% range 5450-10,200) cases and 1710 (1290-2180) tuberculosis-related deaths per 1 million population over 10 years. Of the total averted deaths, 33.5% (28.2-38.3) were attributable to the inclusion of preventive therapy and 52.9% (48.4-56.9) to health system strengthening. CONCLUSIONS: A one-time, community-wide mass campaign, comprehensively designed to detect, treat, and prevent tuberculosis with currently existing tools can have a meaningful and long-lasting epidemiological impact. Successful treatment of LTBI is critical to achieving this result. Health system strengthening is essential to any effort to transform the TB response.

Understanding why at-risk population segments do not seek care for tuberculosis: a precision public health approach in South India.

INTRODUCTION: Delaying care-seeking for tuberculosis (TB) symptoms is a major contributor to mortality, leading to worse outcomes and spread. To reduce delays, it is essential to identify barriers to care-seeking and target populations most at risk of delaying. Previous work identifies barriers only in people within the health system, often long after initial care-seeking. METHODS: We conducted a community-based survey of 84 625 households in Chennai, India, to identify 1667 people with TB-indicative symptoms in 2018-2019. Cases were followed prospectively to observe care-seeking behaviour. We used a comprehensive survey to identify care-seeking drivers, then performed multivariate analyses to identify care-seeking predictors. To identify profiles of individuals most at risk to delay care-seeking, we segmented the sample using unsupervised clustering. We then estimated the per cent of the TB-diagnosed population in Chennai in each segment. RESULTS: Delayed care-seeking characteristics include smoking, drinking, being employed, preferring different facilities than the community, believing to be at lower risk of TB and believing TB is common. Respondents who reported fever or unintended weight loss were more likely to seek care. Clustering analysis revealed seven population segments differing in care-seeking, from a retired/unemployed/disabled cluster, where 70% promptly sought care, to a cluster of employed men who problem-drink and smoke, where only 42% did so. Modelling showed 54% of TB-diagnosed people who delay care-seeking might belong to the latter segment, which is most likely to acquire TB and least likely to promptly seek care. CONCLUSION: Interventions to increase care-seeking should move from building general awareness to addressing treatment barriers such as lack of time and low-risk perception. Care-seeking interventions should address specific beliefs through a mix of educational, risk perception-targeting and social norms-based campaigns. Employed men who problem-drink and smoke are a prime target for interventions. Reducing delays in this group could dramatically reduce TB spread.