Temporal Dynamics, Discovery, and Emergence of Human-Transmissible RNA Viruses.

Transmissibility, the ability to spread within host populations, is a prerequisite for a pathogen to have epidemic or pandemic potential. Here, we estimate the phylogenies of human infectivity and transmissibility using 1,408 genome sequences from 743 distinct RNA virus species/types in 59 genera. By repeating this analysis using data sets censored by virus discovery date, we explore how temporal changes in the known diversity of RNA viruses-especially recent increases in recognized nonhuman viruses-have altered these phylogenies. Over time, we find significant increases in the proportion of RNA virus genera estimated to have a nonhuman-infective ancestral state, in the fraction of distinct human virus lineages that are purely human-transmissible or strictly zoonotic (compared to mixed lineages), and in the number of human viruses with nearest relatives known not to infect humans. Our results are consistent with viruses that are capable of spreading in human populations commonly emerging from a nonhuman reservoir. This is more likely in lineages that already contain human-transmissible viruses but is rare in lineages that contain only strictly zoonotic viruses.

Phylogenetic relationship and virulence composition of Escherichia coli O26:H11 cattle and human strain collections in Scotland; 2002-2020.

O26 is the commonest non-O157 Shiga toxin (stx)-producing Escherichia coli serogroup reported in human infections worldwide. Ruminants, particularly cattle, are the primary reservoir source for human infection. In this study, we compared the whole genomes and virulence profiles of O26:H11 strains (n = 99) isolated from Scottish cattle with strains from human infections (n = 96) held by the Scottish Escherichia coli O157/STEC Reference Laboratory, isolated between 2002 and 2020. Bovine strains were from two national cross-sectional cattle surveys conducted between 2002-2004 and 2014-2015. A maximum likelihood phylogeny was constructed from a core-genome alignment with the O26:H11 strain 11368 reference genome. Genomes were screened against a panel of 2,710 virulence genes using the Virulence Finder Database. All stx-positive bovine O26:H11 strains belonged to the ST21 lineage and were grouped into three main clades. Bovine and human source strains were interspersed, and the stx subtype was relatively clade-specific. Highly pathogenic stx2a-only ST21 strains were identified in two herds sampled in the second cattle survey and in human clinical infections from 2010 onwards. The closest pairwise distance was 9 single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) between Scottish bovine and human strains and 69 SNPs between the two cattle surveys. Bovine O26:H11 was compared to public EnteroBase ST29 complex genomes and found to have the greatest commonality with O26:H11 strains from the rest of the UK, followed by France, Italy, and Belgium. Virulence profiles of stx-positive bovine and human strains were similar but more conserved for the stx2a subtype. O26:H11 stx-negative ST29 (n = 17) and ST396 strains (n = 5) were isolated from 19 cattle herds; all were eae-positive, and 10 of these herds yielded strains positive for ehxA, espK, and Z2098, gene markers suggestive of enterohaemorrhagic potential. There was a significant association (p < 0.001) between nucleotide sequence percent identity and stx status for the bacteriophage insertion site genes yecE for stx2 and yehV for stx1. Acquired antimicrobial resistance genes were identified in silico in 12.1% of bovine and 17.7% of human O26:H11 strains, with sul2, tet, aph(3″), and aph(6″) being most common. This study describes the diversity among Scottish bovine O26:H11 strains and investigates their relationship to human STEC infections.

Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation (SIMD) indicators as predictors of mortality among patients hospitalised with COVID-19 disease in the Lothian Region, Scotland during the first wave: a cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Sars-CoV-2, the causative agent of COVID-19, has led to more than 226,000 deaths in the UK and multiple risk factors for mortality including age, sex and deprivation have been identified. This study aimed to identify which individual indicators of the Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation (SIMD), an area-based deprivation index, were predictive of mortality. METHODS: This was a prospective cohort study of anonymised electronic health records of 710 consecutive patients hospitalised with Covid-19 disease between March and June 2020 in the Lothian Region of Southeast Scotland. Data sources included automatically extracted data from national electronic platforms and manually extracted data from individual admission records. Exposure variables of interest were SIMD quintiles and 12 indicators of deprivation deemed clinically relevant selected from the SIMD. Our primary outcome was mortality. Age and sex adjusted univariable and multivariable analyses were used to determine measures of association between exposures of interest and the primary outcome. RESULTS: After adjusting for age and sex, we found an increased risk of mortality in the more deprived SIMD quintiles 1 and 3 (OR 1.75, CI 0.99-3.08, p = 0.053 and OR 2.17, CI 1.22-3.86, p = 0.009, respectively), but this association was not upheld in our multivariable model containing age, sex, Performance Status and clinical parameters of severity at admission. Of the 12 pre-selected indicators of deprivation, two were associated with greater mortality in our multivariable analysis: income deprivation rate categorised by quartile (Q4 (most deprived): 2.11 (1.20-3.77) p = 0.011)) and greater than expected hospitalisations due to alcohol per SIMD data zone (1.96 (1.28-3.00) p = 0.002)). CONCLUSIONS: SIMD as an aggregate measure of deprivation was not predictive of mortality in our cohort when other exposure measures were accounted for. However, we identified a two-fold increased risk of mortality in patients residing in areas with greater income-deprivation and/or number of hospitalisations due to alcohol. In areas where aggregate measures fail to capture pockets of deprivation, exploring the impact of specific SIMD indicators may be helpful in targeting resources to residents at risk of poorer outcomes from Covid-19.

Analysis of Escherichia coli O157 strains in cattle and humans between Scotland and England & Wales: implications for human health.

For the last two decades, the human infection frequency of Escherichia coli O157 (O157) in Scotland has been 2.5-fold higher than in England and Wales. Results from national cattle surveys conducted in Scotland and England and Wales in 2014/2015 were combined with data on reported human clinical cases from the same time frame to determine if strain differences in national populations of O157 in cattle could be associated with higher human infection rates in Scotland. Shiga toxin subtype (Stx) and phage type (PT) were examined within and between host (cattle vs human) and nation (Scotland vs England and Wales). For a subset of the strains, whole genome sequencing (WGS) provided further insights into geographical and host association. All three major O157 lineages (I, II, I/II) and most sub-lineages (Ia, Ib, Ic, IIa, IIb, IIc) were represented in cattle and humans in both nations. While the relative contribution of different reservoir hosts to human infection is unknown, WGS analysis indicated that the majority of O157 diversity in human cases was captured by isolates from cattle. Despite comparable cattle O157 prevalence between nations, strain types were localized. PT21/28 (sub-lineage Ic, Stx2a+) was significantly more prevalent in Scottish cattle [odds ratio (OR) 8.7 (2.3-33.7; P<0.001] and humans [OR 2.2 (1.5-3.2); P<0.001]. In England and Wales, cattle had a significantly higher association with sub-lineage IIa strains [PT54, Stx2c; OR 5.6 (1.27-33.3); P=0.011] while humans were significantly more closely associated with sub-lineage IIb [PT8, Stx1 and Stx2c; OR 29 (4.9-1161); P<0.001]. Therefore, cattle farms in Scotland were more likely to harbour Stx2a+O157 strains compared to farms in E and W (P<0.001). There was evidence of limited cattle strain migration between nations and clinical isolates from one nation were more similar to cattle isolates from the same nation, with sub-lineage Ic (mainly PT21/28) exhibiting clear national association and evidence of local transmission in Scotland. While we propose the higher rate of O157 clinical cases in Scotland, compared to England and Wales, is a consequence of the nationally higher level of Stx2a+O157 strains in Scottish cattle, we discuss the multiple additional factors that may also contribute to the different infection rates between these nations.

Prevalence of Shiga Toxin-Producing Escherichia coli O157 in Wild Scottish Deer with High Human Pathogenic Potential.

Shiga toxin-producing E. coli (STEC) infections associated with wildlife are increasing globally, highlighting many 'spillover' species as important reservoirs for these zoonotic pathogens. A human outbreak of STEC serogroup O157 in 2015 in Scotland, associated with the consumption of venison meat products, highlighted several knowledge gaps, including the prevalence of STEC O157 in Scottish wild deer and the potential risk to humans from wild deer isolates. In this study, we undertook a nationwide survey of wild deer in Scotland and determined that the prevalence of STEC O157 in wild deer is low 0.28% (95% confidence interval = 0.06-0.80). Despite the low prevalence of STEC O157 in Scottish wild deer, identified isolates were present in deer faeces at high levels (>104 colony forming units/g faeces) and had high human pathogenic potential based on whole genome sequencing and virulence gene profiling. A retrospective epidemiological investigation also identified one wild deer isolate from this study as a possible source of a Scottish human outbreak in 2017. These results emphasise the importance of food hygiene practices during the processing of wild deer carcasses for human consumption.

The WUR0000125 PRRS resilience SNP had no apparent effect on pigs' infectivity and susceptibility in a novel transmission trial.

BACKGROUND: Porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome (PRRS) remains one of the most important infectious diseases for the pig industry. A novel small-scale transmission experiment was designed to assess whether the WUR0000125 (WUR for Wageningen University and Research) PRRS resilience single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) confers lower susceptibility and infectivity to pigs under natural porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome virus (PRRSV-2) transmission. METHODS: Commercial full- and half-sib piglets (n = 164) were assigned as either Inoculation, Shedder, or Contact pigs. Pigs were grouped according to their relatedness structure and WUR genotype, with R- and R+ referring to pigs with zero and one copy of the dominant WUR resilience allele, respectively. Barcoding of the PRRSV-2 strain (SD09-200) was applied to track pig genotype-specific transmission. Blood and nasal swab samples were collected and concentrations of PRRSV-2 were determined by quantitative (q)-PCR and cell culture and expressed in units of median tissue culture infectious dose (TCID50). The Log10TCID50 at each sampling event, derived infection status, and area under the curve (AUC) were response variables in linear and generalized linear mixed models to infer WUR genotype differences in Contact pig susceptibility and Shedder pig infectivity. RESULTS: All Shedder and Contact pigs, except one, became infected through natural transmission. There was no significant (p > 0.05) effect of Contact pig genotype on any virus measures that would indicate WUR genotype differences in susceptibility. Contact pigs tended to have higher serum AUC (p = 0.017) and log10TCID50 (p = 0.034) when infected by an R+ shedder, potentially due to more infectious R+ shedders at the early stages of the transmission trial. However, no significant Shedder genotype effect was found in serum (p = 0.274) or nasal secretion (p = 0.951) that would indicate genotype differences in infectivity. CONCLUSIONS: The novel design demonstrated that it is possible to estimate genotype effects on Shedder pig infectivity and Contact pig susceptibility that are not confounded by family effects. The study, however, provided no supportive evidence that genetic selection on WUR genotype would affect PRRSV-2 transmission. The results of this study need to be independently validated in a larger trial using different PRRSV strains before dismissing the effects of the WUR marker or the previously detected GBP5 gene on PRRSV transmission.

Performance status: A key factor in predicting mortality in the first wave of COVID-19 in South-East Scotland.

BACKGROUND: COVID-19 mortality risk factors have been established in large cohort studies; long-term mortality outcomes are less documented. METHODS: We performed multivariable logistic regression to identify factors associated with in-patient mortality and intensive care unit (ICU) admission in symptomatic COVID-19 patients admitted to hospitals in South-East Scotland from 1st March to 30th June 2020. One-year mortality was reviewed. RESULTS: Of 726 patients (median age 72; interquartile range: 58-83 years, 55% male), 104 (14%) required ICU admission and 199 (27%) died in hospital. A further 64 died between discharge and 30th June 2021 (36% overall 1-year mortality). Stepwise logistic regression identified age >79 (odds ratio (OR), 4.77 (95% confidence interval (CI), 1.96-12.75)), male sex (OR, 1.83 (95% CI, 1.21-2.80)) and higher European Cooperative Oncology Group/World Health Organization performance status as associated with higher mortality risk. DISCUSSION: Poor functional baseline was the predominant independent risk factor for mortality in COVID-19. More than one-third of individuals had died by 1 year following admission.

Antimicrobial resistant Escherichia coli in Scottish wild deer: Prevalence and risk factors.

Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) is a recognised threat to global health. Obtaining data on the prevalence of AMR in environmental bacteria is key to understanding drivers and routes of transmission. Here, 325 Shiga toxin negative deer faecal samples-gathered from across the Scottish mainland-were screened for the presence of AMR Escherichia coli and investigated for potential risk factors associated with AMR occurrence. E. coli with resistance to antimicrobials of clinical health concern, including carbapenems and 3rd generation cephalosporins, were targeted. Ninety-nine percent of samples yielded E. coli, and the prevalence of resistant E. coli at the level of faecal samples was 21.8% (n = 71) for tetracycline, 6.5% (n = 21) for cefpodoxime, 0.3% for ciprofloxacin (n = 1), with no recorded resistance to meropenem. Potential risk factors for tetracycline and cefpodoxime resistance were investigated. The presence of broadleaved woodlands was significantly associated with both AMR phenotypes, which may relate to land use within or around such woodlands. Associated risk factors varied across resistance phenotype and deer species, with proximity or density of horses an indicator of significantly decreased and increased risk, respectively, or tetracycline and cefpodoxime resistance in E. coli from roe deer, but not from red deer. Distance from wastewater treatment plants was a significant risk factor for tetracycline resistance in E. coli from red deer but not from roe deer. Data indicated that AMR E. coli can occur in wild deer populations that are not directly exposed to the selective pressure exerted by antimicrobial treatment. Overall, resistance to critically important antimicrobials was found to be low in the studied population, suggesting no immediate cause for concern regarding human health. Utilising existing culling frameworks, wild deer in Scotland could function well as a sentinel species for the surveillance of AMR in the Scottish environment.

The microbial condition of Scottish wild deer carcasses collected for human consumption and the hygiene risk factors associated with Escherichia coli and total coliforms contamination.

Wild deer hunting is necessary in Scotland to control deer population density, with most carcasses being processed for human consumption. As limited information is available on the microbial condition of Scottish venison, we studied the variation of total coliforms and Escherichia coli (E. coli) on 214 wild deer carcasses collected from six approved establishments. Samples were collected from the hide, body cavity and external surface of each carcass and mean values were determined following bacterial plate counts. The mean log10/cm2 coliforms were 5.78 (hide), 6.80 (body cavity) and 6.36 (external surface). The mean log10/cm2E. coli were 1.82 (hide), 2.27 (body cavity) and 2.17 (external carcass). Significantly higher coliforms counts were associated with storage-to-dressing times above 6 days and with longer transport distances. Risk factors that increased E. coli were red deer species, ambient temperature above 7 °C during hunting, dirty hides, faecal contamination and moisture or slimy film on the carcass. Although the bacterial counts obtained in this study indicated some hygienic processing, for around half of the carcasses, the E. coli counts were above 2 log10/cm2. Therefore, the above risk factors suggest a few handling hygiene practices that should be further improved to enhance quality and safety.

Predictors of human-infective RNA virus discovery in the United States, China, and Africa, an ecological study.

Background: The variation in the pathogen type as well as the spatial heterogeneity of predictors make the generality of any associations with pathogen discovery debatable. Our previous work confirmed that the association of a group of predictors differed across different types of RNA viruses, yet there have been no previous comparisons of the specific predictors for RNA virus discovery in different regions. The aim of the current study was to close the gap by investigating whether predictors of discovery rates within three regions-the United States, China, and Africa-differ from one another and from those at the global level. Methods: Based on a comprehensive list of human-infective RNA viruses, we collated published data on first discovery of each species in each region. We used a Poisson boosted regression tree (BRT) model to examine the relationship between virus discovery and 33 predictors representing climate, socio-economics, land use, and biodiversity across each region separately. The discovery probability in three regions in 2010-2019 was mapped using the fitted models and historical predictors. Results: The numbers of human-infective virus species discovered in the United States, China, and Africa up to 2019 were 95, 80, and 107 respectively, with China lagging behind the other two regions. In each region, discoveries were clustered in hotspots. BRT modelling suggested that in all three regions RNA virus discovery was better predicted by land use and socio-economic variables than climatic variables and biodiversity, although the relative importance of these predictors varied by region. Map of virus discovery probability in 2010-2019 indicated several new hotspots outside historical high-risk areas. Most new virus species since 2010 in each region (6/6 in the United States, 19/19 in China, 12/19 in Africa) were discovered in high-risk areas as predicted by our model. Conclusions: The drivers of spatiotemporal variation in virus discovery rates vary in different regions of the world. Within regions virus discovery is driven mainly by land-use and socio-economic variables; climate and biodiversity variables are consistently less important predictors than at a global scale. Potential new discovery hotspots in 2010-2019 are identified. Results from the study could guide active surveillance for new human-infective viruses in local high-risk areas. Funding: FFZ is funded by the Darwin Trust of Edinburgh (https://darwintrust.bio.ed.ac.uk/). MEJW has received funding from the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement No. 874735 (VEO) (https://www.veo-europe.eu/).

High Prevalence and Factors Associated With the Distribution of the Integron intI1 and intI2 Genes in Scottish Cattle Herds.

Integrons are genetic elements that capture and express antimicrobial resistance genes within arrays, facilitating horizontal spread of multiple drug resistance in a range of bacterial species. The aim of this study was to estimate prevalence for class 1, 2, and 3 integrons in Scottish cattle and examine whether spatial, seasonal or herd management factors influenced integron herd status. We used fecal samples collected from 108 Scottish cattle herds in a national, cross-sectional survey between 2014 and 2015, and screened fecal DNA extracts by multiplex PCR for the integrase genes intI1, intI2, and intI3. Herd-level prevalence was estimated [95% confidence interval (CI)] for intI1 as 76.9% (67.8-84.0%) and intI2 as 82.4% (73.9-88.6%). We did not detect intI3 in any of the herd samples tested. A regional effect was observed for intI1, highest in the North East (OR 11.5, 95% CI: 1.0-130.9, P = 0.05) and South East (OR 8.7, 95% CI: 1.1-20.9, P = 0.04), lowest in the Highlands. A generalized linear mixed model was used to test for potential associations between herd status and cattle management, soil type and regional livestock density variables. Within the final multivariable model, factors associated with herd positivity for intI1 included spring season of the year (OR 6.3, 95% CI: 1.1-36.4, P = 0.04) and watering cattle from a natural spring source (OR 4.4, 95% CI: 1.3-14.8, P = 0.017), and cattle being housed at the time of sampling for intI2 (OR 75.0, 95% CI: 10.4-540.5, P < 0.001). This study provides baseline estimates for integron prevalence in Scottish cattle and identifies factors that may be associated with carriage that warrant future investigation.

Predictors of COVID-19 epidemics in countries of the World Health Organization African Region.

Countries of the World Health Organization (WHO) African Region have experienced a wide range of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) epidemics. This study aimed to identify predictors of the timing of the first COVID-19 case and the per capita mortality in WHO African Region countries during the first and second pandemic waves and to test for associations with the preparedness of health systems and government pandemic responses. Using a region-wide, country-based observational study, we found that the first case was detected earlier in countries with more urban populations, higher international connectivity and greater COVID-19 test capacity but later in island nations. Predictors of a high first wave per capita mortality rate included a more urban population, higher pre-pandemic international connectivity and a higher prevalence of HIV. Countries rated as better prepared and having more resilient health systems were worst affected by the disease, the imposition of restrictions or both, making any benefit of more stringent countermeasures difficult to detect. Predictors for the second wave were similar to the first. Second wave per capita mortality could be predicted from that of the first wave. The COVID-19 pandemic highlights unanticipated vulnerabilities to infectious disease in Africa that should be taken into account in future pandemic preparedness planning.

Prevalence and Epidemiology of Non-O157 Escherichia coli Serogroups O26, O103, O111, and O145 and Shiga Toxin Gene Carriage in Scottish Cattle, 2014-2015.

Cattle are a reservoir for Shiga toxin-producing Escherichia coli (STEC), zoonotic pathogens that cause serious clinical disease. Scotland has a higher incidence of STEC infection in the human population than the European average. The aim of this study was to investigate the prevalence and epidemiology of non-O157 serogroups O26, O103, O111, and O145 and Shiga toxin gene carriage in Scottish cattle. Fecal samples (n = 2783) were collected from 110 herds in 2014 and 2015 and screened by real-time PCR. Herd-level prevalence (95% confidence interval [CI]) for O103, O26, and O145 was estimated as 0.71 (0.62, 0.79), 0.43 (0.34, 0.52), and 0.23 (0.16, 0.32), respectively. Only two herds were positive for O111. Shiga toxin prevalence was high in both herds and pats, particularly for stx2 (herd level: 0.99; 95% CI: 0.94, 1.0). O26 bacterial strains were isolated from 36 herds on culture. Fifteen herds yielded O26 stx-positive isolates that additionally harbored the intimin gene; six of these herds shed highly pathogenic stx2-positive strains. Multiple serogroups were detected in herds and pats, with only 25 herds negative for all serogroups. Despite overlap in detection, regional and seasonal effects were observed. Higher herd prevalence for O26, O103, and stx1 occurred in the South West, and this region was significant for stx2 at the pat level (P = 0.015). Significant seasonal variation was observed for O145 prevalence, with the highest prevalence in autumn (P = 0.032). Negative herds were associated with Central Scotland and winter. Herds positive for all serogroups were associated with autumn and larger herd size and were not housed at sampling.IMPORTANCE Cattle are reservoirs for Shiga toxin-producing Escherichia coli (STEC), bacteria shed in animal feces. Humans are infected through consumption of contaminated food or water and by direct contact, resulting in serious disease and kidney failure in the most vulnerable. The contribution of non-O157 serogroups to STEC illness was underestimated for many years due to the lack of specific tests. Recently, non-O157 human cases have increased, with O26 STEC of particular note. It is therefore vital to investigate the level and composition of non-O157 in the cattle reservoir and to compare them historically and by the clinical situation. In this study, we found cattle prevalence high for toxin, as well as for O103 and O26 serogroups. Pathogenic O26 STEC were isolated from 14% of study herds, with toxin subtypes similar to those seen in Scottish clinical cases. This study highlights the current risk to public health from non-O157 STEC in Scottish cattle.

Efficacy of praziquantel has been maintained over four decades (from 1977 to 2018): A systematic review and meta-analysis of factors influence its efficacy.

BACKGROUND: The antihelminthic drug praziquantel has been used as the drug of choice for treating schistosome infection for more than 40 years. Although some epidemiological studies have reported low praziquantel efficacy in cure rate (CR) and/or egg reduction rate (ERR), there is no consistent robust evidence of the development of schistosome resistance to praziquantel (PZQ). There is need to determine factors that lead to variable treatment CR and/or ERR. Therefore, we conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis to review CR and ERR as well as identify their predictors. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: In this systematic review and meta-analysis, a literature review was conducted using Biosis Citation Index, Data Citation Index, MEDLINE, and Web of Science Core Collection all of which were provided through Web of Science. Alongside these, EMBASE, and CAB abstracts were searched to identify relevant articles. Random effect meta-regression models were used to identify the factors that influence CR and/or ERR by considering differences in host characteristics and drug dose. In total, 12,127 potential articles were screened and 146 eligible articles (published from 1979 to 2020) were identified and included for the meta-analysis. We found that there has been no significant reduction in CR or ERR over the study period. The results showed more variability in CR, compared with ERR which was more consistent and remained high. The results showed a positive effect of "PZQ treatment dose" with the current recommended dose of 40 mg/kg body weight achieving 57% to 88% CR depending on schistosome species, age of participants, and number of parasitological samples used for diagnosis, and ERR of 95%. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Based on a review of over 40 years of research there is no evidence to support concerns about schistosomes developing resistance to PZQ. These results indicate that PZQ remains effective in treating schistosomiasis.

Risk factors for carbapenemase-producing organisms among inpatients in Scotland: A national matched case-control study.

OBJECTIVE: To determine risk factors for carbapenemase-producing organisms (CPOs) and to determine the prognostic impact of CPOs. DESIGN: A retrospective matched case-control study. PATIENTS: Inpatients across Scotland in 2010-2016 were included. Patients with a CPO were matched with 2 control groups by hospital, admission date, specimen type, and bacteria. One group comprised patients either infected or colonized with a non-CPO and the other group were general inpatients. METHODS: Conditional logistic regression models were used to identify risk factors for CPO infection and colonization, respectively. Mortality rates and length of postisolation hospitalization were compared between CPO and non-CPO patients. RESULTS: In total, 70 CPO infection cases (with 210 general inpatient controls and 121 non-CPO controls) and 34 CPO colonization cases (with 102 general inpatient controls and 60 non-CPO controls) were identified. Risk factors for CPO infection versus general inpatients were prior hospital stay (adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 4.05; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.52-10.78; P = .005), longer hospitalization (aOR, 1.07; 95% CI, 1.04-1.10; P < .001), longer intensive care unit (ICU) stay (aOR, 1.41; 95% CI, 1.01-1.98; P = .045), and immunodeficiency (aOR, 3.68; 95% CI, 1.16-11.66; P = .027). Risk factors for CPO colonization were prior high-dependency unit (HDU) stay (aOR, 11.46; 95% CI, 1.27-103.09; P = .030) and endocrine, nutritional, and metabolic (ENM) diseases (aOR, 3.41; 95% CI, 1.02-11.33; P = .046). Risk factors for CPO infection versus non-CPO infection were prolonged hospitalization (aOR, 1.02; 95% CI, 1.00-1.03; P = .038) and HDU stay (aOR, 1.13; 95% CI, 1.02-1.26; P = .024). No differences in mortality rates were detected between CPO and non-CPO patients. CPO infection was associated with longer hospital stay than non-CPO infection (P = .041). CONCLUSIONS: A history of (prolonged) hospitalization, prolonged ICU or HDU stay; ENM diseases; and being immunocompromised increased risk for CPO. CPO infection was not associated with increased mortality but was associated with prolonged hospital stay.

Global discovery of human-infective RNA viruses: A modelling analysis.

RNA viruses are a leading cause of human infectious diseases and the prediction of where new RNA viruses are likely to be discovered is a significant public health concern. Here, we geocoded the first peer-reviewed reports of 223 human RNA viruses. Using a boosted regression tree model, we matched these virus data with 33 explanatory factors related to natural virus distribution and research effort to predict the probability of virus discovery across the globe in 2010-2019. Stratified analyses by virus transmissibility and transmission mode were also performed. The historical discovery of human RNA viruses has been concentrated in eastern North America, Europe, central Africa, eastern Australia, and north-eastern South America. The virus discovery can be predicted by a combination of socio-economic, land use, climate, and biodiversity variables. Remarkably, vector-borne viruses and strictly zoonotic viruses are more associated with climate and biodiversity whereas non-vector-borne viruses and human transmissible viruses are more associated with GDP and urbanization. The areas with the highest predicted probability for 2010-2019 include three new regions including East and Southeast Asia, India, and Central America, which likely reflect both increasing surveillance and diversity of their virome. Our findings can inform priority regions for investment in surveillance systems for new human RNA viruses.

Investigating a strategy for quantifying schistosome infection levels in preschool-aged children using prevalence data from school-aged children.

In 2012, the World Health Organisation (WHO) set out a roadmap for eliminating schistosomiasis as a public health problem by 2025. To achieve this target, preschool-aged children (PSAC; aged 6 years and below) will need to be included in schistosomiasis treatment programmes. As the global community discusses the tools and approaches for treating this group, one of the main questions that remains unanswered is how to quantify infection in this age group to inform treatment strategies. The aim of this study was thus to determine whether a relationship exists between levels of schistosome infection in PSAC and school-aged children (SAC), that can be used to determine unknown schistosome infection prevalence levels in PSAC. A systematic search of publications reporting schistosomiasis prevalence in African PSAC and SAC was conducted. The search strategy was formulated using the PRISMA guidelines and SPIDER search strategy tool. The published data was subjected to regression analysis to determine if a relationship exists between infection levels in PSAC and SAC. The interaction between SAC and community treatment history was also entered in the regression model to determine if treatment history significantly affected the relationship between PSAC and SAC prevalence. The results showed that a significant positive relationship exists between infection prevalence levels in PSAC and SAC for Schistosoma mansoni (r = 0.812, df (88, 1), p = <0.0001) and S. haematobium (r = 0.786, df (53, 1), p = <0.0001). The relationship was still significant after allowing for diagnostic method, treatment history, and the African sub-region where the study was conducted (S. mansoni: F = 25.63, df (88, 9), p = <0.0001; S. haematobium: F = 10.20, df (53, 10), p = <0.0001). Using the regression equation for PSAC and SAC prevalence, over 90% of the PSAC prevalence studies were placed in the correct WHO classifications category based on the SAC levels, regardless of treatment history. The study indicated that schistosome prevalence in SAC can be extended as a proxy for infection levels in PSAC, extending on its current use in the adult population. SAC prevalence data could identify where there is a need to accelerate and facilitate the treatment of PSAC for schistosomiasis in Africa.

Pathogen transmission from vaccinated hosts can cause dose-dependent reduction in virulence.

Many livestock and human vaccines are leaky because they block symptoms but do not prevent infection or onward transmission. This leakiness is concerning because it increases vaccination coverage required to prevent disease spread and can promote evolution of increased pathogen virulence. Despite leakiness, vaccination may reduce pathogen load, affecting disease transmission dynamics. However, the impacts on post-transmission disease development and infectiousness in contact individuals are unknown. Here, we use transmission experiments involving Marek disease virus (MDV) in chickens to show that vaccination with a leaky vaccine substantially reduces viral load in both vaccinated individuals and unvaccinated contact individuals they infect. Consequently, contact birds are less likely to develop disease symptoms or die, show less severe symptoms, and shed less infectious virus themselves, when infected by vaccinated birds. These results highlight that even partial vaccination with a leaky vaccine can have unforeseen positive consequences in controlling the spread and symptoms of disease.

New insights about vaccine effectiveness: Impact of attenuated PRRS-strain vaccination on heterologous strain transmission.

Vaccination is the main tool for controlling infectious diseases in livestock. Yet current vaccines only provide partial protection raising concerns about vaccine effectiveness in the field. Two successive transmission trials were performed involving 52 pigs to evaluate the effectiveness of a Porcine Reproductive and Respiratory Syndrome (PRRS) vaccinal strain candidate against horizontal transmission of a virulent heterologous strain. PRRS virus, above the specified limit of detection, was observed in serum and nasal secretions for all but one pig (the exception only tested positive for serum), indicating that vaccination did not protect pigs from becoming infected and shedding the heterologous strain. However, vaccination delayed the onset of viraemia, reduced the duration of shedding and significantly decreased viral load throughout infection. Serum antibody profiles indicated that 4 out of 13 (31%) vaccinates in one trial had no serological response (NSR). A Bayesian epidemiological model was fitted to the data to assess the impact of vaccination and presence of NSRs on PRRS virus transmission dynamics. Despite little evidence for reduction in the transmission rate, vaccinated animals were on average slower to become infectious, experienced a shorter infectious period and recovered faster. The overall PRRSV transmission potential, represented by the reproductive ratio R0 was lower for the vaccinated animals, although there was substantial overlap in the credibility intervals for both groups. Model selection suggests that transmission parameters of vaccinated pigs with NSR were more similar to those of unvaccinated animals. The presence of NSRs in a population, however, seemed to only marginally affect the transmission dynamics. The results suggest that even when vaccination can't prevent infection, it can still have beneficial impacts on the transmission dynamics and contribute to reducing a herd's R0. However, biosecurity and other measures need to be considered to decrease contact rates and lower R0 below 1.

A cross-sectional survey of practices and knowledge among antibiotic retailers in Nairobi, Kenya.

BACKGROUND: Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) driven by antibiotic consumption is a growing global health threat. However, data on antimicrobial consumption patterns in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) is sparse. Here, we investigate the patterns of antibiotic sales in humans and livestock in urban Nairobi, Kenya, and evaluate the level of awareness and common behaviours related to antibiotic use and AMR amongst human and veterinary pharmacists. METHODS: A total of 40 human and 19 veterinary drug store pharmacists were interviewed in Nairobi in 2018 using a standard questionnaire. Data recorded included demographic variables, types of antibiotics sold, antibiotic customers, antibiotic prescribing practices and knowledge of antibiotic use and AMR. RESULTS: Our study shows that at the retail level, there is a considerable overlap between antibiotic classes (10/15) sold for use in both human and veterinary medicine. Whilst in our study, clinical training significantly influenced knowledge on issues related to antibiotic use and AMR and respondents had a relatively adequate level of knowledge about AMR, several inappropriate prescribing practices were identified. For example, we found that most veterinary and human drug stores (100% and 52% respectively) sold antibiotics without a prescription and noted that customer preference was an important factor when prescribing antibiotics in half of the drug stores. CONCLUSION: Although more research is needed to understand the drivers of antibiotic consumption in both human and animal populations, these findings highlight the need for immediate strategies to improve prescribing practices across the pharmacists in Nairobi and by extension other low- and middle-income country settings.