Novel nomogram for predicting risk of early postoperative small bowel obstruction after right colectomy for cancer.

BACKGROUND: Early postoperative small bowel obstruction (EPSBO) is a common complication after colorectal cancer surgery. Few studies have specifically studied risk factors for early small bowel obstruction after right colectomy, especially in establishing predictive models. The purpose of the current study was to establish an effective nomogram to predict the incidence of EPSBO after right colectomy. METHODS: The current study retrospectively analyzed data from a total of 424 patients who underwent right colectomy in a local hospital from January 2014 to March 2021. A logistic regression model was used to identify potential risk factors for EPSBO after right colectomy. A nomogram was established by independent risk factors, and the prediction performance of the model was evaluated using an area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and calibration chart. RESULTS: A total of 45 patients (10.6%) developed early small bowel obstruction after right colectomy. Male sex, emergency operation, history of abdominal surgery, open surgery, long operative time, anastomotic leakage, and preoperative albumin were closely related to EPSBO. Analysis of postoperative rehabilitation indices showed that EPSBO remarkably slowed the postoperative rehabilitation speed of patients. Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that male sex, open surgery, operative time, and anastomotic leakage were independent risk factors (P < 0.05), and the operation time had the greatest impact on EPSBO. On the basis of multivariate logistic regression, a nomogram was constructed, which showed moderate accuracy in predicting EPSBO, with a C-statistic of 0.716. The calibration chart showed good consistency between the predicted probability and ideal probability. CONCLUSION: The current study constructed a nomogram based on the clinical data of patients who underwent right colectomy, which had moderate predictability and could provide reference value for clinicians to evaluate the risk of EPSBO.

Nomogram for predicting chylous ascites after right colectomy.

BACKGROUND: Chylous ascites following right colectomy has a high incidence which is a critical challenge. At present, there are few studies on the factors affecting chylous ascites after right colectomy and especially after D3 Lymphadenectomy. A predictive model for chylous ascites has not yet been established. Therefore, we created the first nomogram to predict the incidence of chylous ascites after right hemicolectomy. AIM: To analyze the risk factors for chylous ascites after right colectomy and establish a nomogram to predict the incidence of chylous ascites. METHODS: We retrospectively collected patients who underwent right hemicolectomy between January 2012 and May 2021 and were pathologically diagnosed with cancer. Multivariate logistic regression was used to analyze the influencing factors of chylous ascites and a nomogram was established. The predictive ability was assessed by the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. RESULTS: Operative time, the type of operation (standard or extended), the number of lymph nodes retrieved, and somatostatin administration were considered important risk factors. Multivariate logistic regression and nomograms can be used to accurately predict whether chylous ascites occurs. The area under the ROC curve of the model is 0.770. The C-statistic of this model is 0.770 which indicates that it has a relatively moderate ability to predict the risk of chylous ascites. CONCLUSION: We found a novel set of risk factors, created a nomogram, and validated it. The nomogram had a relatively accurate forecasting ability for chylous ascites after right hemicolectomy and can be used as a reference for risk assessment of chylous ascites and whether to prevent it after surgery.

Cerebral Circulation Time Is a Potential Predictor of Disabling Ischemic Cerebrovascular Events in Patients With Non-disabling Middle Cerebral Artery Stenosis.

Patients with non-disabling middle cerebral artery (MCA) stenosis (ND-MCAS) are at risk for disabling ischemic cerebrovascular events (DICE) despite aggressive medical therapy. In this study, we aimed to verify whether cerebral circulation time (CCT) was a potential predictor of DICE in patients with ND-MCAS. From January 2015 to January 2020, 46 patients with ND-MCAS treated with aggressive medical therapy were enrolled for digital subtraction angiography (DSA) in this convenience sampling study. They were divided into the DICE (-) and DICE (+) groups based on the occurrence of DICE within 3 months after DSA. The CCT was defined as the time from the appearance of the MCA to the peak intensity of the Trolard vein during DSA. The rCCT (relative CCT) was defined as the ratio of the CCT of the stenotic side (sCCT) to the CCT of the healthy side (hCCT). The differences in sCCT, hCCT, and rCCT between the two groups were analyzed with Mann-Whitney U tests. Logistic regression analysis was performed to evaluate the association between the risk factors and DICE. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were constructed to assess the predictive value of rCCT in identifying DICE in ND-MCAS patients. The results showed that DICE appeared in 5 of the 46 patients within 3 months. rCCT were significantly increased in the DICE (+) group compared with the DICE (-) group [1.08 (1.05, 1.14) vs. 1.30 (1.22, 1.54), p < 0.001]. Logistic regression analysis found that prolonged rCCT was an independent positive prognostic factor for DICE (odds ratio = 1.273, p = 0.019) after adjustment for potential confounders (age, diabetes, antithrombotic use, and stenosis degree). ROC analysis showed that rCCT provided satisfactory accuracy in distinguishing the DICE (+) group from the DICE (-) group among ND-MCAS patients (area under the curve = 0.985, p < 0.001), with an optimal cutoff point of 1.20 (100% sensitivity, 97.6% specificity). In conclusion, prolonged rCCT is independently associated with the occurrence of DICE in ND-MCAS patients and may be used to identify individuals at risk of DICE.

Vascular, inflammatory and metabolic risk factors in relation to dementia in Parkinson's disease patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus.

There are limited data on vascular, inflammatory, metabolic risk factors of dementia in Parkinson's disease (PD) with type 2 diabetes mellitus (DM) (PD-DM). In a study of 928 subjects comprising of 215 PD with DM (including 31 PD-DM with dementia, PD-DMD), 341 PD without DM (including 31 PD with dementia, PDD) and 372 DM without PD (including 35 DM with dementia, DMD) patients, we investigated if vascular, inflammatory, metabolic, and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) markers were associated with dementia in PD-DM. Lower fasting blood glucose (FBG<5mmol/L, OR=4.380; 95%CI: 1.748-10.975; p=0.002), higher homocysteine (HCY>15µmol/L, OR=3.131; 95%CI: 1.243-7.888; p=0.015) and hyperlipidemia (OR=3.075; 95%CI: 1.142-8.277; p=0.026), increased age (OR=1.043; 95%CI: 1.003-1.084; p=0.034) were the most significant risk factors in PDD patients. Lower low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C<2mmol/L, OR=4.499; 95%CI: 1.568-12.909; p=0.005) and higher fibrinogen (>4g/L, OR=4.066; 95%CI: 1.467-11.274; p=0.007) were the most significant risk factors in PD-DMD patients. The area under the curve (AUC) for fibrinogen and LDL-C was 0.717 (P=0.001), with a sensitivity of 80.0% for the prediction of PD-DMD.In summary, we identified several factors including LDL-C and fibrinogen as significant risk factors for PD-DMD and these may have prognostic and treatment implications.