Urban-rural disparities in the short-term effects of cold and heat on myocardial infarction mortality in Anhui Province, China.

Non-optimal ambient temperatures are risk factors for myocardial infarction (MI) and urban-rural temperature differences in the context of climate change may have caused and will lead to differential association between temperature and MI. We collected daily mean temperature and daily MI deaths from 1 January 2016 to 31 December 2020 in Anhui Province, China. A distributed lag nonlinear model was performed to estimate the area-specific association of heat and cold (defined as the 2.5th and 97.5th percentile of the daily mean temperature) with MI mortality; the random-effects meta-analysis was then used to pool the effects of cold and heat. We found the risk of MI death due to cold was higher in rural areas [relative risk (RR): 1.13, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.02-1.26, lag0) than in urban areas (RR: 0.99, 95% CI: 0.80-1.21, lag0), whereas the risk of MI death associated with heat was higher in urban areas (RR: 1.14, 95% CI: 1.03-1.27, lag0) than in rural areas (RR: 1.04, 95% CI: 0.99-1.10, lag0). Our findings may help to develop targeted protective strategies to reduce the adverse effects of cold and heat on cardiovascular disease.

Increased Suicide Mortality and Reduced Life Expectancy Associated With Ambient Heat Exposure.

INTRODUCTION: Ambient heat exposure is a risk factor for suicide in many regions of the world. However, little is known about the extent to which life expectancy has been shortened by heat-related suicide deaths. This study aimed to evaluate the short-term effects of heat on suicide mortality and quantify the reduced life expectancy associated with heat in China. METHODS: A time-stratified, case-crossover analysis in 2023 was performed during the warm season (May to September) from 2016 to 2020 to assess the short-term association between extreme heat (the 95th percentile of mean temperature) and suicide mortality in Anhui Province, China. A subgroup analysis was performed according to sex, age, marital status, suicide type, and region. The attributable fraction and years of life lost due to heat were calculated, and the heat-related life expectancy loss was estimated. RESULTS: This study included 9,642 suicide deaths, with an average age of 62.4 years and 58.8% of suicides in males. Suicide risk was associated with an 80.7% increase (95% confidence interval [CI]: 21.4%-68.9%) after exposure to extreme heat (30.6°C) in comparison to daily minimum temperature (7.9°C). Subgroup analysis revealed that heat-related suicide risk was more prominent in the married population than in the unmarried population. Heat was estimated to be associated with 31.7% (95% CI: 18.0%-43.2%) of the suicides, corresponding to 7.0 years of loss in life expectancy for each decedent. CONCLUSIONS: Heat exposure was associated with an increased risk of suicide and reduced life expectancy. However, further prospective studies are required to confirm this relationship.

Can global or national disability weights represent provincial level?

BACKGROUND: A universal set of disability weights(DWs) is mainly based on the survey of North America, Australia and Europe, whereas the participants in Asia was limited. The debate hasn't yet settled whether a universal DW is desirable or useful.The focus of the debate is its representativenes-s.After all, the DWs come from people's subjective evaluation of pain, and they may vary according to cultural background.The differences of the DWs could have implications for the magnitude or ranking of disease burdens.The DWs of Anhui Province has not been completely presented.This paper aims to obtain the DWs suitable for the general population of Anhui Province of China, and attempts to explore the differences between different DWs by comparing the DWs with the similar-cultural background and the DWs with cross-cultural background. METHODS: A web-based survey was conducted to estimate the DWs for 206 health states of Anhui province in 2020. Paired comparison (PC) data were analyzed and anchored by probit regression and fitting loess model. We compared the DWs in Anhui with other provinces in China and those in Global burden of disease (GBD) and Japan. RESULTS: Compared with Anhui province, the proportion of health states which showed 2 times or more differences ranged from 1.94% (Henan) to 11.17% (Sichuan) in China and domestic provinces. It was 19.88% in Japan and 21.51% in GBD 2013 respectively. In Asian countries or regions, most of the health states with top 15 DWs belonged to the category of mental, behavioral, and substance use disorders. But in GBD, most were infectious diseases and cancer. The differences of DWs in neighboring provinces were smaller than other geographically distant provinces or countries. CONCLUSION: PC responses were largely consistent across very distinct settings,but the exceptions do need to be faced squarely.The differences of DWs among similar-cultural regions were smaller than cross-cultural regions. There is an urgent need for relevant gold standards.

Eliciting national and subnational sets of disability weights in mainland China: Findings from the Chinese disability weight measurement study.

Background: The disability weight (DW) quantifies the severity of health states from disease sequela and is a pivotal parameter for disease burden calculation. We conducted a national and subnational DW measurement in China. Methods: In 2020-2021, we conducted a web-based survey to assess DWs for 206 health states in 31 Chinese provinces targeting health workers via professional networks. We fielded questions of paired comparison (PC) and population health equivalence (PHE). The PC data were analysed by probit regression analysis, and the regression results were anchored by results from the PHE responses on the DW scale between 0 (no loss of health) and 1 (health loss equivalent to death). Findings: We used PC responses from 468,541 respondents to estimate DWs of health states. Eight of 11 domains of health had significantly negative coefficients in the regression of the difference between Chinese and Global Burden of Disease (GBD) DWs, suggesting lower DW values for health states with mention of these domains in their lay description. We noted considerable heterogeneity within domains, however. After applying these Chinese DWs to the 2019 GBD estimates for China, total years lived with disability (YLDs) increased by 14·9% to 177 million despite lower estimates for musculoskeletal disorders, cardiovascular diseases, mental disorders, diabetes and chronic kidney disease. The lower estimates of YLDs for these conditions were more than offset by higher estimates of common, low-severity conditions. Interpretation: The differences between the GBD and Chinese DWs suggest that there might be some contextual factors influencing the valuation of health states. While the reduced estimates for mental disorders, alcohol use disorder, and dementia could hint at a culturally different valuation of these conditions in China, the much greater shifts in YLDs from low-severity conditions more likely reflects methodological difficulty to distinguish between health states that vary a little in absolute DW value but a lot in relative terms. Funding: This work was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China [grant number 82173626], the National Key Research and Development Program of China [grant numbers 2018YFC1315302], Wuhan Medical Research Program of Joint Fund of Hubei Health Committee [grant number WJ2019H304], and Ningxia Natural Science Foundation Project [grant number 2020AAC03436].

[Temporal trend of probability of premature death caused by four major non-communicable diseases in Anhui province, 2014 to 2018, and the potential of achieving healthy goals].

Objective: To investigate the current status and temporal trend of probability of premature death, caused by four major non-communicable diseases (NCDs) in Anhui province, from 2014 to 2018, and to explore the possibility of achieving the goal of "Healthy China 2030". Methods: Data of death were collected from the "Information System for Death Cause Register and Management". The mortality, standardized mortality, premature mortality rate and annual percentage change (APC) were calculated. Based on the reduction target of "Healthy China 2030"(-30%) and "Healthy Anhui 2030"(-25%) for premature death probability of four major NCDs, the possibility of achieving the target was evaluated. Results: From 2014 to 2018, the proportion of four major NCDs deaths to total deaths increased from 82.76% to 84.77%, showing an upward trend(APC=0.50%). The standardized mortality rate of four major NCDs in the population aged 30-69 years was decreasing annually (APC=-1.78%). The premature death probability of four major NCDs decreased from 15.53% to 14.43% with a downward trend. The decline rate of men (APC=-1.80%) was slightly lower than that of women (APC=-2.00%). The decline rate of urban (APC=-1.57%) and rural (APC=-1.99%), Northern Anhui (APC=-2.32%) and Central Anhui (APC=-1.81%) areas were all showed a downward trend. The premature death probability in the same year was higher in men, rural areas and northern Anhui areas. The decrease of chronic respiratory diseases was the greatest (APC=-9.19%), followed by cancer (APC=-1.77%), but increased in diabetes for men (APC=-2.90%). According to the average growth rate of premature death probability from 2014 to 2018, it was predicted that the goal of healthy Anhui would be achieved by 2030. However, to achieve the goal of healthy China, the rate of decline needs to be increased by 26.40% on the existing basis. Comparing to the proportion, the descent speed needs to be increased between different genders, urban and rural areas and regions. Conclusions: The premature death probability of four major NCDs in Anhui province has a continuous downward trend. Men, rural residents and residents in northern Anhui province are the key population. We should carry out intervention against the main risk factors of NCDs, reduce the premature mortality rate of NCDs, and strive to achieve the goal of "Healthy China 2030".

Elevated Blood and Urinary ICAM-1 is a Biomarker for Systemic Lupus Erythematosus: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

Background: Systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) is an autoimmune disease with complex etiology. Intercellular cell adhesion molecule-1 (ICAM-1) is critical for leukocyte adhesion to endothelium and migration out of blood vessels and thus participates in many autoimmune diseases. Previous studies of blood and urinary ICAM-1 in SLE have yielded inconsistent results.Methods: The following databases were searched for studies that compared blood and/or urinary ICAM-1 in SLE patients vs. healthy control subjects, and/or in SLE with active vs. inactive diseases: PubMed, EMBASE, Cochrane Library, China National Knowledge Infrastructure and Web of Science. Standardized mean difference (SMD) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) were calculated using a random-effects model when there was significant heterogeneity (assesses using the Cochrane Q test and I2 statistics), and using a fixed-effects model otherwise. Publication bias was assessed using funnel plot and egger text.Results: The initial screening yielded a total of 1,215 articles; 22 articles (14 reporting blood ICAM-1, 7 reporting urinary ICAM-1 and 1 reporting both) were included in the meta-analysis. In comparison to healthy controls, SLE patients had elevated urinary ICAM-1 (SMD: 0.711; 95% CI: 0.521, 0.901) as well as blood ICAM-1 (SMD: 0.725; 95% CI: 0.385, 1.065). Blood ICAM-1 did not differ significantly between active and inactive SLE (SMD: 0.396; 95% CI: -0.556, 1.347).Conclusion: Elevated blood and urinary ICAM-1 is a biomarker for SLE, but does not differentiate active and inactive SLE.

A Meta-Analysis of Cardiovascular Events in Systemic Lupus Erythematosus.

Objective: To identify accurate occurrence and risk of cardiovascular (CV) events (stroke and myocardial infarction [MI]) in patients with systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE). Methods: Systemic literature search in PubMed and additional manual search were performed to obtain interested studies until March 31, 2018. The pooled incidences and risk of stroke and MI were calculated. Results: A total of 24 studies were included in this meta-analysis. For MI, a total of 1,516 SLE patients were reported to had MI (n = 96,154) over a mean follow-up of 9.98 years: incidence 2.0% (95% CI: 1.7-2.4%), i.e. 0.20/100 pyrs; in the five studies, 360 SLE patients (n = 18,943) and 817 controls had MI (n = 111,525), revealing that the risk of MI in SLE population was 3.04 times higher than in the general population (RR = 3.04, 95% CI: 1.81-5.11). For stroke, the incidence of 17 studies during the 10.09 follow-up period using random model was 4.4% (95% CI: 3.6-5.1%), i.e. 0.44/100 pyrs; in the 7 studies, 694 SLE patients (n = 22,594) and 4,034 controls had stroke (n = 255,023), indicating that the risk of MI in SLE population was 1.95 times higher than that in the general population (RR = 1.95, 95% CI: 1.52-2.53). Conclusion: Based on the findings from previous reports, our meta-analysis showed that patients with SLE have been at higher risk of CV events.

Circulating Insulin-like Growth Factor-1 Levels in Patients with Rheumatoid Arthritis: A Meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Insulin-like growth factor-1 (IGF-1) levels have been investigated in rheumatoid arthritis (RA), however, produced inconsistent results. The purpose of this meta-analysis was to derive a more precise conclusion about serum/plasma IGF-1 levels in RA patients. METHODS: PubMed, Embase and the Cochrane Library databases were searched up to December 2018 in English, and the studies comparing serum/plasma IGF-1 levels between RA group and healthy control group were what we are interested in. The Newcastle-Ottawa Scale (NOS) was used to assess the methodological quality of the included studies. The heterogeneity test was performed by the Cochrane Q statistic and I2 -statistic. The publication bias was evaluated by the funnel plot and Egger's test. The standard mean difference (SMD) with 95% confidence interval (CI) was calculated by the fixed-effects or random-effects model. RESULTS: A total of eleven articles with 334 cases and 261 controls were finally included. Compared with the healthy group, the RA group had lower circulating IGF-1 levels (pooled SMD= -0.936, 95% CI= -1.382 to -0.489, p<0.001). The subgroup analysis showed that RA patients from Asia (SMD= -0.645, 95% CI= -1.063 to -0.228, p= 0.002) and Europe (SMD= -1.131, 95% CI= -1.767 to -0.495, p<0.001) had lower circulating IGF-1 levels, no significant difference in plasma/serum IGF-1 levels was observed in RA patients from America. Sensitivity analysis indicated the stability and credibility of the overall effect sizes. CONCLUSION: Patients with RA have lower circulating IGF-1 level than healthy controls, particularly for patients from Asia and Europe. Further studies are necessary to elucidate the role of IGF-1 in the pathological process of RA.

Diagnostic accuracy of anti-keratin antibody for rheumatoid arthritis: a meta-analysis.

OBJECTIVES: Anti-keratin antibody (AKA) is a serum antibody for patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA), and it has a high specificity. Diagnostic role of AKA in RA was evaluated in this study. METHODS: PubMed, EMBASE, and Web of Science were searched to acquire eligible studies. Articles published before 15 March 2018 were considered to be included. Quality Assessment of Diagnostic Accuracy Studies 2 was used to evaluate the risk of bias and application concern of the included articles. Pooled analysis of diagnostic indicators of AKA for RA was conducted by using a random effects model. Subgroup analysis was employed to explore the potential influencing factors. RevMan 5.3, Stata 11.0, and Meta-DiSc 1.4 software were used in this study. RESULTS: A total of 15 studies (2350 positive and 2067 negative participants) were included. The pooled sensitivity was 0.46 (95% CI 0.44-0.48), pooled specificity was 0.94 (95% CI 0.93-0.95), and pooled diagnostic odds ratio was 15.86 (95% CI 9.48-26.52). In addition, the area under the curve was 0.7194. CONCLUSIONS: The current evidence indicated that AKA has high diagnostic specificity in RA and may be useful for RA diagnostic application in clinic.