Recalibration of a Non-Laboratory-Based Risk Model to Estimate Pre-Diabetes/Diabetes Mellitus Risk in Primary Care in Hong Kong.

INTRODUCTION/OBJECTIVES: A non-laboratory-based pre-diabetes/diabetes mellitus (pre-DM/DM) risk prediction model developed from the Hong Kong Chinese population showed good external discrimination in a primary care (PC) population, but the estimated risk level was significantly lower than the observed incidence, indicating poor calibration. This study explored whether recalibrating/updating methods could improve the model's accuracy in estimating individuals' risks in PC. METHODS: We performed a secondary analysis on the model's predictors and blood test results of 919 Chinese adults with no prior DM diagnosis recruited from PC clinics from April 2021 to January 2022 in HK. The dataset was randomly split in half into a training set and a test set. The model was recalibrated/updated based on a seven-step methodology, including model recalibrating, revising and extending methods. The primary outcome was the calibration of the recalibrated/updated models, indicated by calibration plots. The models' discrimination, indicated by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUC-ROC), was also evaluated. RESULTS: Recalibrating the model's regression constant, with no change to the predictors' coefficients, improved the model's accuracy (calibration plot intercept: -0.01, slope: 0.69). More extensive methods could not improve any further. All recalibrated/updated models had similar AUC-ROCs to the original model. CONCLUSION: The simple recalibration method can adapt the HK Chinese pre-DM/DM model to PC populations with different pre-test probabilities. The recalibrated model can be used as a first-step screening tool and as a measure to monitor changes in pre-DM/DM risks over time or after interventions.

Impact of outdoor nature-related activities on gut microbiota, fecal serotonin, and perceived stress in preschool children: the Play&Grow randomized controlled trial.

Due to rapid urbanization, children today have fewer opportunities to interact with nature and this may result in a greater risk for developing stress and depression. Outdoor nature-related activities can enhance general well-being. However, the underlying mechanisms are not fully delineated. Here we recruited 54 preschool children to participate in a 10-week structured nature-related "Play&Grow" program. Following the intervention, children were assessed for connectedness to nature and perceived stress levels using validated questionnaires. Moreover, fecal serotonin level and gut microbiota profiles were measured by ELISA and 16S rDNA amplicon sequencing, respectively. Children were significantly more connected to nature after the intervention. Their gut microbiota altered, especially by modulating the abundance of Roseburia and the fecal-serotonin level. Moreover, we also observed a reduction in the overall perceived stress, particularly in the frequency of anger among these children. This study is the first to demonstrate the impact of nature-related activities on gut microbiota, fecal serotonin and psychosocial behaviour of preschool children. However, further mechanistic studies are needed to confirm the functional role of gut microbiota in the association between connectedness to nature and improved psychosocial behavior.

Does connectedness to nature improve the eating behaviours of pre-schoolers? Emerging evidence from the Play&Grow randomised controlled trial in Hong Kong.

BACKGROUND: Nature-based interventions, which focus on outdoor play, mental health, and self-directed autonomous play, are becoming popular in promoting well-being. The objective of this study was to test whether connecting to nature would contribute to better feeding and eating habits in families with pre-schoolers. METHODS: 241 families with children aged two to five were randomly assigned to the Intervention (IG) and Control Groups (CG). IG received 10 sessions of a family-based programme, which included a novel Connectedness to Nature (CN) element. CG received only the government's health recommendations. The effectiveness of the intervention's primary outcomes (CN, eating/feeding behaviours) was analysed by a repeated measures structural equation model with intervention status as a causal predictor. RESULTS: 204 families (IG, n = 120; CG, n = 84) completed the measurements before and after the trial. The intervention had a medium effect on caregivers' CN (f2 = 0.16, (95%CI = 0.06, 0.30)) and a large effect on children's CN (f2 = 0.58, (95%CI = 0.36, 0.89)). In the IG, children's CN strongly predicted caregivers' feeding style (ß = 0.48 (p < .01, 95%CI = 0.14, 0.83)) and moderately, children's eating behaviours (ß = 0.21 (p = .16, 95%CI = -0.09, 0.52)). This produced a positive trend for greater vegetable consumption in the IG compared to the CG (ß = 0.20 (95%CI = 0.01, 0.39) vs. ß = -0.05, (95%CI = -0.18, 0.08)). Interestingly, the path values in the CG significantly reflected the traditional pattern, (e.g., parental feeding style strongly influenced children's eating behaviour (ß = 0.33, p = .001, 95%CI = 0.13, 0.54). CONCLUSIONS: The Play&Grow intervention positively increased caregivers' and children's CN. It also improved eating behaviors in children independent of their caregivers' feeding style. This may indicate a higher degree of autonomy in children's eating behaviour if they are exposed to nature. Further research should test the CN component in promotion of healthy eating in pre-schoolers.