African bushpigs exhibit porous species boundaries and appeared in Madagascar concurrently with human arrival.

Several African mammals exhibit a phylogeographic pattern where closely related taxa are split between West/Central and East/Southern Africa, but their evolutionary relationships and histories remain controversial. Bushpigs (Potamochoerus larvatus) and red river hogs (P. porcus) are recognised as separate species due to morphological distinctions, a perceived lack of interbreeding at contact, and putatively old divergence times, but historically, they were considered conspecific. Moreover, the presence of Malagasy bushpigs as the sole large terrestrial mammal shared with the African mainland raises intriguing questions about its origin and arrival in Madagascar. Analyses of 67 whole genomes revealed a genetic continuum between the two species, with putative signatures of historical gene flow, variable FST values, and a recent divergence time (<500,000 years). Thus, our study challenges key arguments for splitting Potamochoerus into two species and suggests their speciation might be incomplete. Our findings also indicate that Malagasy bushpigs diverged from southern African populations and underwent a limited bottleneck 1000-5000 years ago, concurrent with human arrival in Madagascar. These results shed light on the evolutionary history of an iconic and widespread African mammal and provide insight into the longstanding biogeographic puzzle surrounding the bushpig's presence in Madagascar.

Morphological variability or inter-observer bias? A methodological toolkit to improve data quality of multi-researcher datasets for the analysis of morphological variation.

OBJECTIVES: The investigation of morphological variation in animals is widely used in taxonomy, ecology, and evolution. Using large datasets for meta-analyses has dramatically increased, raising concerns about dataset compatibilities and biases introduced by contributions of multiple researchers. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We compiled morphological data on 13 variables for 3073 individual mouse lemurs (Cheirogaleidae, Microcebus spp.) from 25 taxa and 153 different sampling locations, measured by 48 different researchers. We introduced and applied a filtering pipeline and quantified improvements in data quality (Shapiro-Francia statistic, skewness, and excess kurtosis). The filtered dataset was then used to test for genus-wide sexual size dimorphism and the applicability of Rensch's, Allen's, and Bergmann's rules. RESULTS: Our pipeline reduced inter-observer bias (i.e., increased normality of data distributions). Inter-observer reliability of measurements was notably variable, highlighting the need to reduce data collection biases. Although subtle, we found a consistent pattern of sexual size dimorphism across Microcebus, with females being the larger (but not heavier) sex. Sexual size dimorphism was isometric, providing no support for Rensch's rule. Variations in tail length but not in ear size were consistent with the predictions of Allen's rule. Body mass and length followed a pattern contrary to predictions of Bergmann's rule. DISCUSSION: We highlighted the usefulness of large multi-researcher datasets for testing ecological hypotheses after correcting for inter-observer biases. Using genus-wide tests, we outlined generalizable patterns of morphological variability across all mouse lemurs. This new methodological toolkit aims to facilitate future large-scale morphological comparisons for a wide range of taxa and applications.

The genomic diversity of the Eliurus genus in northern Madagascar with a putative new species.

Madagascar exhibits extraordinarily high level of species richness and endemism, while being severely threatened by habitat loss and fragmentation (HL&F). In front of these threats to biodiversity, conservation effort can be directed, for instance, in the documentation of species that are still unknown to science, or in investigating how species respond to HL&F. The tufted-tail rats genus (Eliurus spp.) is the most speciose genus of endemic rodents in Madagascar, with 13 described species, which occupy two major habitat types: dry or humid forests. The large species diversity and association to specific habitat types make the Eliurus genus a suitable model for investigating species adaptation to new environments, as well as response to HL&F (dry vs humid). In the present study, we investigated Eliurus spp. genomic diversity across northern Madagascar, a region covered by both dry and humid fragmented forests. From the mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) and nuclear genomic (RAD-seq) data of 124 Eliurus individuals sampled in poorly studied forests of northern Madagascar, we identified an undescribed Eliurus taxon (Eliurus sp. nova). We tested the hypothesis of a new Eliurus species using several approaches: i) DNA barcoding; ii) phylogenetic inferences; iii) species delimitation tests based on the Multi-Species Coalescent (MSC) model, iv) genealogical divergence index (gdi); v) an ad-hoc test of isolation-by-distance within versus between sister-taxa, vi) comparisons of %GC content patterns and vii) morphological analyses. All analyses support the recognition of the undescribed lineage as a putative distinct species. In addition, we show that Eliurus myoxinus, a species known from the dry forests of western Madagascar, is, surprisingly, found mostly in humid forests in northern Madagascar. In conclusion, we discuss the implications of such findings in the context of Eliurus species evolution and diversification, and use the distribution of northern Eliurus species as a proxy for reconstructing past changes in forest cover and vegetation type in northern Madagascar.

Effects of Forest Fragmentation on Connectivity and Genetic Diversity in an Endemic and an Invasive Rodent in Northwestern Madagascar.

Habitat loss and fragmentation are of concern to conservation biologists worldwide. However, not all organisms are affected equally by these processes; thus, it is important to study the effects of living in fragmented habitats on species that differ in lifestyle and habitat requirements. In this study, we examined the dispersal and connectivity patterns of rodents, one endemic (Eliurus myoxinus) and one invasive (Rattus rattus), in two landscapes containing forest fragments and adjacent continuous forest patches in northwestern Madagascar. We generated genetic (RADseq) data for 66 E. myoxinus and 81 R. rattus individuals to evaluate differences in genetic diversity as well as inbreeding and connectivity in two landscapes. We found higher levels of inbreeding and lower levels of genetic diversity in E. myoxinus compared with R. rattus. We observed related dyads both within and between habitat patches and positive spatial autocorrelation at lower distance classes for both species, with a stronger pattern of spatial autocorrelation in R. rattus. Across each site, we identified contrasting migration rates for each species, but these did not correspond to habitat-matrix dichotomies. The relatively low genetic diversity in the endemic E. myoxinus suggests ecological constraints that require further investigation.

The importance of well protected forests for the conservation genetics of West African colobine monkeys.

In tropical forests, anthropogenic activities are major drivers of the destruction and degradation of natural habitats, causing severe biodiversity loss. African colobine monkeys (Colobinae) are mainly folivore and strictly arboreal primates that require large forests to subsist, being among the most vulnerable of all nonhuman primates. The Western red colobus Piliocolobus badius and the King colobus Colobus polykomos inhabit highly fragmented West African forests, including the Cantanhez Forests National Park (CFNP) in Guinea-Bissau. Both species are also found in the largest and best-preserved West African forest-the Taï National Park (TNP) in Ivory Coast. Colobine monkeys are hunted for bushmeat in both protected areas, but these exhibit contrasting levels of forest fragmentation, thus offering an excellent opportunity to investigate the importance of well-preserved forests for the maintenance of evolutionary potential in these arboreal primates. We estimated genetic diversity, population structure, and demographic history by using microsatellite loci and mitochondrial DNA. We then compared the genetic patterns of the colobines from TNP with the ones previously obtained for CFNP and found contrasting genetic patterns. Contrary to the colobines from CFNP that showed very low genetic diversity and a strong population decline, the populations in TNP still maintain high levels of genetic diversity and we found no clear signal of population decrease in Western red colobus and a limited decrease in King colobus. These results suggest larger and historically more stable populations in TNP compared to CFNP. We cannot exclude the possibility that the demographic effects resulting from the recent increase of bushmeat hunting are not yet detectable in TNP using genetic data. Nevertheless, the fact that the TNP colobus populations are highly genetically diverse and maintain large effective population sizes suggests that well-preserved forests are crucial for the maintenance of populations, species, and probably for the evolutionary potential in colobines.

Population genomic structure in Goodman's mouse lemur reveals long-standing separation of Madagascar's Central Highlands and eastern rainforests.

Madagascar's Central Highlands are largely composed of grasslands, interspersed with patches of forest. The historical perspective was that Madagascar's grasslands had anthropogenic origins, but emerging evidence suggests that grasslands were a component of the pre-human Central Highlands vegetation. Consequently, there is now vigorous debate regarding the extent to which these grasslands have expanded due to anthropogenic pressures. Here, we shed light on the temporal dynamics of Madagascar's vegetative composition by conducting a population genomic investigation of Goodman's mouse lemur (Microcebus lehilahytsara; Cheirogaleidae). These small-bodied primates occur both in Madagascar's eastern rainforests and in the Central Highlands, making them a valuable indicator species. Population divergences among forest-dwelling mammals will reflect changes to their habitat, including fragmentation, whereas patterns of post-divergence gene flow can reveal formerly wooded migration corridors. To explore these patterns, we used RADseq data to infer population genetic structure, demographic models of post-divergence gene flow, and population size change through time. The results offer evidence that open habitats are an ancient component of the Central Highlands, and that widespread forest fragmentation occurred naturally during a period of decreased precipitation near the last glacial maximum. Models of gene flow suggest that migration across the Central Highlands has been possible from the Pleistocene through the recent Holocene via riparian corridors. Though our findings support the hypothesis that Central Highland grasslands predate human arrival, we also find evidence for human-mediated population declines. This highlights the extent to which species imminently threatened by human-mediated deforestation may already be vulnerable from paleoclimatic conditions.

Heterogeneity in effective size across the genome: effects on the inverse instantaneous coalescence rate (IICR) and implications for demographic inference under linked selection.

The relative contribution of selection and neutrality in shaping species genetic diversity is one of the most central and controversial questions in evolutionary theory. Genomic data provide growing evidence that linked selection, i.e. the modification of genetic diversity at neutral sites through linkage with selected sites, might be pervasive over the genome. Several studies proposed that linked selection could be modeled as first approximation by a local reduction (e.g. purifying selection, selective sweeps) or increase (e.g. balancing selection) of effective population size (Ne). At the genome-wide scale, this leads to variations of Ne from one region to another, reflecting the heterogeneity of selective constraints and recombination rates between regions. We investigate here the consequences of such genomic variations of Ne on the genome-wide distribution of coalescence times. The underlying motivation concerns the impact of linked selection on demographic inference, because the distribution of coalescence times is at the heart of several important demographic inference approaches. Using the concept of inverse instantaneous coalescence rate, we demonstrate that in a panmictic population, linked selection always results in a spurious apparent decrease of Ne along time. Balancing selection has a particularly large effect, even when it concerns a very small part of the genome. We also study more general models including genuine population size changes, population structure or transient selection and find that the effect of linked selection can be significantly reduced by that of population structure. The models and conclusions presented here are also relevant to the study of other biological processes generating apparent variations of Ne along the genome.

Impact of model assumptions on demographic inferences: the case study of two sympatric mouse lemurs in northwestern Madagascar.

BACKGROUND: Quaternary climate fluctuations have been acknowledged as major drivers of the geographical distribution of the extraordinary biodiversity observed in tropical biomes, including Madagascar. The main existing framework for Pleistocene Malagasy diversification assumes that forest cover was strongly shaped by warmer Interglacials (leading to forest expansion) and by cooler and arid glacials (leading to forest contraction), but predictions derived from this scenario for forest-dwelling animals have rarely been tested with genomic datasets. RESULTS: We generated genomic data and applied three complementary demographic approaches (Stairway Plot, PSMC and IICR-simulations) to infer population size and connectivity changes for two forest-dependent primate species (Microcebus murinus and M. ravelobensis) in northwestern Madagascar. The analyses suggested major demographic changes in both species that could be interpreted in two ways, depending on underlying model assumptions (i.e., panmixia or population structure). Under panmixia, the two species exhibited larger population sizes across the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and towards the African Humid Period (AHP). This peak was followed by a population decline in M. ravelobensis until the present, while M. murinus may have experienced a second population expansion that was followed by a sharp decline starting 3000 years ago. In contrast, simulations under population structure suggested decreasing population connectivity between the Last Interglacial and the LGM for both species, but increased connectivity during the AHP exclusively for M. murinus. CONCLUSION: Our study shows that closely related species may differ in their responses to climatic events. Assuming that Pleistocene climatic conditions in the lowlands were similar to those in the Malagasy highlands, some demographic dynamics would be better explained by changes in population connectivity than in population size. However, changes in connectivity alone cannot be easily reconciled with a founder effect that was shown for M. murinus during its colonization of the northwestern Madagascar in the late Pleistocene. To decide between the two alternative models, more knowledge about historic forest dynamics in lowland habitats is necessary. Altogether, our study stresses that demographic inferences strongly depend on the underlying model assumptions. Final conclusions should therefore be based on a comparative evaluation of multiple approaches.

Past environmental changes affected lemur population dynamics prior to human impact in Madagascar.

Quaternary climatic changes have been invoked as important drivers of species diversification worldwide. However, the impact of such changes on vegetation and animal population dynamics in tropical regions remains debated. To overcome this uncertainty, we integrated high-resolution paleoenvironmental reconstructions from a sedimentary record covering the past 25,000 years with demographic inferences of a forest-dwelling primate species (Microcebus arnholdi), in northern Madagascar. Result comparisons suggest that climate changes through the African Humid Period (15.2 - 5.5 kyr) strongly affected the demographic dynamics of M. arnholdi. We further inferred a population decline in the last millennium which was likely shaped by the combination of climatic and anthropogenic impacts. Our findings demonstrate that population fluctuations in Malagasy wildlife were substantial prior to a significant human impact. This provides a critical knowledge of climatically driven, environmental and ecological changes in the past, which is essential to better understand the dynamics and resilience of current biodiversity.

Inferring number of populations and changes in connectivity under the n-island model.

Inferring the demographic history of species is one of the greatest challenges in populations genetics. This history is often represented as a history of size changes, ignoring population structure. Alternatively, when structure is assumed, it is defined a priori as a population tree and not inferred. Here we propose a framework based on the IICR (Inverse Instantaneous Coalescence Rate). The IICR can be estimated for a single diploid individual using the PSMC method of Li and Durbin (2011). For an isolated panmictic population, the IICR matches the population size history, and this is how the PSMC outputs are generally interpreted. However, it is increasingly acknowledged that the IICR is a function of the demographic model and sampling scheme with limited connection to population size changes. Our method fits observed IICR curves of diploid individuals with IICR curves obtained under piecewise stationary symmetrical island models. In our models we assume a fixed number of time periods during which gene flow is constant, but gene flow is allowed to change between time periods. We infer the number of islands, their sizes, the periods at which connectivity changes and the corresponding rates of connectivity. Validation with simulated data showed that the method can accurately recover most of the scenario parameters. Our application to a set of five human PSMCs yielded demographic histories that are in agreement with previous studies using similar methods and with recent research suggesting ancient human structure. They are in contrast with the view of human evolution consisting of one ancestral population branching into three large continental and panmictic populations with varying degrees of connectivity and no population structure within each continent.

A reference-free approach to analyse RADseq data using standard next generation sequencing toolkits.

Genotyping-by-sequencing methods such as RADseq are popular for generating genomic and population-scale data sets from a diverse range of organisms. These often lack a usable reference genome, restricting users to RADseq specific software for processing. However, these come with limitations compared to generic next generation sequencing (NGS) toolkits. Here, we describe and test a simple pipeline for reference-free RADseq data processing that blends de novo elements from STACKS with the full suite of state-of-the art NGS tools. Specifically, we use the de novo RADseq assembly employed by STACKS to create a catalogue of RAD loci that serves as a reference for read mapping, variant calling and site filters. Using RADseq data from 28 zebra sequenced to ~8x depth-of-coverage we evaluate our approach by comparing the site frequency spectra (SFS) to those from alternative pipelines. Most pipelines yielded similar SFS at 8x depth, but only a genotype likelihood based pipeline performed similarly at low sequencing depth (2-4x). We compared the RADseq SFS with medium-depth (~13x) shotgun sequencing of eight overlapping samples, revealing that the RADseq SFS was persistently slightly skewed towards rare and invariant alleles. Using simulations and human data we confirm that this is expected when there is allelic dropout (AD) in the RADseq data. AD in the RADseq data caused a heterozygosity deficit of ~16%, which dropped to ~5% after filtering AD. Hence, AD was the most important source of bias in our RADseq data.

Cryptic Patterns of Speciation in Cryptic Primates: Microendemic Mouse Lemurs and the Multispecies Coalescent.

Mouse lemurs (Microcebus) are a radiation of morphologically cryptic primates distributed throughout Madagascar for which the number of recognized species has exploded in the past two decades. This taxonomic revision has prompted understandable concern that there has been substantial oversplitting in the mouse lemur clade. Here, we investigate mouse lemur diversity in a region in northeastern Madagascar with high levels of microendemism and predicted habitat loss. We analyzed RADseq data with multispecies coalescent (MSC) species delimitation methods for two pairs of sister lineages that include three named species and an undescribed lineage previously identified to have divergent mtDNA. Marked differences in effective population sizes, levels of gene flow, patterns of isolation-by-distance, and species delimitation results were found among the two pairs of lineages. Whereas all tests support the recognition of the presently undescribed lineage as a separate species, the species-level distinction of two previously described species, M. mittermeieri and M. lehilahytsara is not supported-a result that is particularly striking when using the genealogical discordance index (gdi). Nonsister lineages occur sympatrically in two of the localities sampled for this study, despite an estimated divergence time of less than 1 Ma. This suggests rapid evolution of reproductive isolation in the focal lineages and in the mouse lemur clade generally. The divergence time estimates reported here are based on the MSC calibrated with pedigree-based mutation rates and are considerably more recent than previously published fossil-calibrated relaxed-clock estimates. We discuss the possible explanations for this discrepancy, noting that there are theoretical justifications for preferring the MSC estimates in this case. [Cryptic species; effective population size; microendemism; multispecies coalescent; speciation; species delimitation.].

Genetic consequences of social structure in the golden-crowned sifaka.

Many species are structured in social groups (SGs) where individuals exhibit complex mating strategies. Yet, most population genetic studies ignore SGs either treating them as small random-mating units or focusing on a higher hierarchical level (the population). Empirical studies acknowledging SGs have found an overall excess of heterozygotes within SGs and usually invoke inbreeding avoidance strategies to explain this finding. However, there is a lack of null models against which ecological theories can be tested and inbreeding avoidance quantified. Here, we investigate inbreeding (deviation from random mating) in an endangered forest-dwelling pair-living lemur species (Propithecus tattersalli). In particular, we measure the inbreeding coefficient (FIS) in empirical data at different scales: SGs, sampling sites and forest patches. We observe high excess of heterozygotes within SGs. The magnitude of this excess is highly dependent on the sampling scheme: while offspring are characterised by a high excess of heterozygotes (FIS < 0), the reproductive pair does not show dramatic departures from Hardy-Weinberg expectations. Moreover, the heterozygosity excess disappears at larger geographic scales (sites and forests). We use a modelling framework that incorporates details of the sifaka mating system but does not include active inbreeding avoidance mechanisms. The simulated data show that, although apparent "random mating" or even inbreeding may occur at the "population" level, outbreeding is maintained within SGs. Altogether our results suggest that social structure leads to high levels of outbreeding without the need for active inbreeding avoidance mechanisms. Thus, demonstrating and measuring the existence of active inbreeding avoidance mechanisms may be more difficult than usually assumed.

Ecology and morphology of mouse lemurs (Microcebus spp.) in a hotspot of microendemism in northeastern Madagascar, with the description of a new species.

Delimitation of cryptic species is increasingly based on genetic analyses but the integration of distributional, morphological, behavioral, and ecological data offers unique complementary insights into species diversification. We surveyed communities of nocturnal mouse lemurs (Microcebus spp.) in five different sites of northeastern Madagascar, measuring a variety of morphological parameters and assessing reproductive states for 123 individuals belonging to five different lineages. We documented two different non-sister lineages occurring in sympatry in two areas. In both cases, sympatric species pairs consisted of a locally restricted (M. macarthurii or M. sp. #3) and a more widespread lineage (M. mittermeieri or M. lehilahytsara). Estimated Extents of Occurrence (EOO) of these lineages differed remarkably with 560 and 1,500 km2 versus 9,250 and 50,700 km2 , respectively. Morphometric analyses distinguished unambiguously between sympatric species and detected more subtle but significant differences among sister lineages. Tail length and body size were most informative in this regard. Reproductive schedules were highly variable among lineages, most likely impacted by phylogenetic relatedness and environmental variables. While sympatric species pairs differed in their reproductive timing (M. sp. #3/M. lehilahytsara and M. macarthurii/M. mittermeieri), warmer lowland rainforests were associated with a less seasonal reproductive schedule for M. mittermeieri and M. lehilahytsara compared with populations occurring in montane forests. Distributional, morphological, and ecological data gathered in this study support the results of genomic species delimitation analyses conducted in a companion study, which identified one lineage, M. sp. #3, as meriting formal description as a new species. Consequently, a formal species description is included. Worryingly, our data also show that geographically restricted populations of M. sp. #3 and its sister species (M. macarthurii) are at high risk of local and perhaps permanent extinction from both deforestation and habitat fragmentation.

Genetic and morphological diversity of mouse lemurs (Microcebus spp.) in northern Madagascar: The discovery of a putative new species?

Tropical forests harbor extremely high levels of biological diversity and are quickly disappearing. Despite the increasingly recognized high rate of habitat loss, it is expected that new species will be discovered as more effort is put to document tropical biodiversity. Exploring under-studied regions is particularly urgent if we consider the rapid changes in habitat due to anthropogenic activities. Madagascar is known for its extraordinary biological diversity and endemicity. It is also threatened by habitat loss and fragmentation. It holds more than 100 endemic primate species (lemurs). Among these, Microcebus (mouse lemurs) is one of the more diverse genera. We sampled mouse lemurs from several sites across northern Madagascar, including forests never sampled before. We obtained morphological data from 99 Microcebus individuals; we extracted DNA from tissue samples of 42 individuals and amplified two mitochondrial loci (cytb and cox2) commonly used for species identification. Our findings update the distribution of three species (Microcebus tavaratra, Microcebus arnholdi, and Microcebus mamiratra), including a major increase in the distribution area of M. arnholdi. We also report the discovery of a new Microcebus lineage genetically related to M. arnholdi. Several complementary approaches suggest that the newly identified Microcebus lineage might correspond to a new putative species, to be confirmed or rejected with additional data. In addition, morphological analyses showed (a) clear phenotypic differences between M. tavaratra and M. arnholdi, but no clear differences between the new Microcebus lineage and the sister species M. arnholdi; and (b) a significant correlation between climatic variables and morphology, suggesting a possible relationship between species identity, morphology, and environment. By integrating morphological, climatic, genetic, and spatial data of two northern Microcebus species, we show that the spatial distribution of forest-dwelling species may be used as a proxy to reconstruct the past spatial changes in forest cover and vegetation type.

Consequences of breed formation on patterns of genomic diversity and differentiation: the case of highly diverse peripheral Iberian cattle.

BACKGROUND: Iberian primitive breeds exhibit a remarkable phenotypic diversity over a very limited geographical space. While genomic data are accumulating for most commercial cattle, it is still lacking for these primitive breeds. Whole genome data is key to understand the consequences of historic breed formation and the putative role of earlier admixture events in the observed diversity patterns. RESULTS: We sequenced 48 genomes belonging to eight Iberian native breeds and found that the individual breeds are genetically very distinct with FST values ranging from 4 to 16% and have levels of nucleotide diversity similar or larger than those of their European counterparts, namely Jersey and Holstein. All eight breeds display significant gene flow or admixture from African taurine cattle and include mtDNA and Y-chromosome haplotypes from multiple origins. Furthermore, we detected a very low differentiation of chromosome X relative to autosomes within all analyzed taurine breeds, potentially reflecting male-biased gene flow. CONCLUSIONS: Our results show that an overall complex history of admixture resulted in unexpectedly high levels of genomic diversity for breeds with seemingly limited geographic ranges that are distantly located from the main domestication center for taurine cattle in the Near East. This is likely to result from a combination of trading traditions and breeding practices in Mediterranean countries. We also found that the levels of differentiation of autosomes vs sex chromosomes across all studied taurine and indicine breeds are likely to have been affected by widespread breeding practices associated with male-biased gene flow.

Coalescence times for three genes provide sufficient information to distinguish population structure from population size changes.

The increasing amount of genomic data currently available is expanding the horizons of population genetics inference. A wide range of methods have been published allowing to detect and date major changes in population size during the history of species. At the same time, there has been an increasing recognition that population structure can generate genetic data similar to those generated under models of population size change. Recently, Mazet et al. (Heredity 116(4):362-371, 2016) introduced the idea that, for any model of population structure, it is always possible to find a panmictic model with a particular function of population size-change having an identical distribution of [Formula: see text] (the time of the first coalescence for a sample of size two). This implies that there is an identifiability problem between a panmictic and a structured model when we base our analysis only on [Formula: see text]. In this paper, based on an analytical study of the rate matrix of the ancestral lineage process, we obtain new theoretical results about the joint distribution of the coalescence times [Formula: see text] for a sample of three haploid genes in a n-island model with constant size. Even if, for any [Formula: see text], it is always possible to find a size-change scenario for a panmictic population such that the marginal distribution of [Formula: see text] is exactly the same as in a n-island model with constant population size, we show that the joint distribution of the coalescence times [Formula: see text] for a sample of three genes contains enough information to distinguish between a panmictic population and a n-island model of constant size.