Non-invasive prediction of post-sustained virological response HCC in HCV: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

Background: Despite advances in antiviral therapy for hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection, hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) still develops even after sustained viral response (SVR) in patients with advanced liver fibrosis or cirrhosis. This meta-analysis investigated the predictive performance of transient elastography (TE) and fibrosis 4-index (FIB-4) for the development of HCC after SVR. Methods: We searched PubMed, MEDLINE, EMBASE, and the Cochrane Library for studies examining the predictive performance of these tests in adult patients with HCV. Two authors independently screened the studies' methodological quality and extracted data. Pooled estimates of sensitivity, specificity, and area under the curve (AUC) were calculated for HCC development using random-effects bivariate logit normal and linear-mixed effect models. Results: We included 27 studies (169,911 patients). Meta-analysis of HCC after SVR was possible in nine TE and 15 FIB-4 studies. Regarding the prediction of HCC development after SVR, the pooled AUCs of pre-treatment TE >9.2-13 kPa and FIB-4 >3.25 were 0.79 and 0.73, respectively. TE >8.4-11 kPa and FIB-4 >3.25 measured after SVR, maintained good predictive performance, albeit slightly reduced (pooled AUCs: 0.77 and 0.70, respectively). The identified optimal cut-off value for HCC development after SVR was 12.6 kPa for pre-treatment TE. That of TE measured after the SVR was 11.2 kPa. Conclusion: TE and FIB-4 showed acceptable predictive performance for HCC development in patients with HCV who achieved SVR, underscoring their utility in clinical practice for guiding surveillance strategies. Future studies are needed to validate these findings prospectively and validate their clinical impact.

Risk Assessment of Hepatitis B virus-related Hepatocellular Carcinoma Development Using Transient Elastography: Systematic Review and Meta-analysis.

Background and Aims: Liver stiffness measurement (LSM) using transient elastography (TE) can assess fibrotic burden in chronic liver diseases. The systematic review and meta-analysis was conducted to determine whether LSM using TE can predict the risk of development of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in chronic hepatitis B (CHB) patients. Methods: A systematic literature search of the Ovid-Medline, EMBASE, Cochrane, and KoreaMed databases (from January 2010 to June 2023) was conducted. Of the 1,345 individual studies identified, 10 studies that used TE were finally registered. Hazard ratios (HRs) and the 95% confidence interval (CIs) were considered summary estimates of treatment effect sizes of ≥ 11 kilopascal (kPa) standard for HCC development. Meta-analysis was performed using the restricted Maximum Likelihood random effects model. Results: Among the ten studies, data for risk ratios for HCC development could be obtained from nine studies. When analyzed for the nine studies, the HR for HCC development was high at 3.33 (95% CI, 2.45-4.54) in CHB patients with a baseline LSM of ≥ 11 kPa compared to patients who did not. In ten studies included, LSM of ≥ 11 kPa showed the sensitivity and specificity for predicting HCC development were 61% (95% CI, 50-71%) and 78% (95% CI, 66-86%), respectively, and the diagnostic accuracy was 0.74 (95% CI, 0.70-0.77). Conclusions: The risk of HCC development was elevated in CHB patients with TE-determined LSM of ≥11 kPa. This finding suggests that TE-determined LSM values may aid the risk prediction of HCC development in CHB patients.

Transient elastography for significant fibrosis in treatment-naïve CHB patients: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

Background and Aims: Accurate diagnosis of significant liver fibrosis in patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB) is crucial when determining whether to initiate antiviral treatment (AVT). We conduct a meta-analysis to assess the diagnostic performance of transient elastography (TE) for significant liver fibrosis in AVT-naïve CHB patients with serum alanine transaminase (ALT) levels within 5-fold the upper limit of normal (ULN). Methods: The Ovid-Medline, EMBASE, Cochrane, and KoreaMed databases were searched to identify studies that compared the performance of TE and liver biopsy (reference standard) when diagnosing significant liver fibrosis (≥ F2) in AVT-naïve CHB patients with ALT within 5-fold the ULN. A hierarchical summary receiver operating characteristic curve (HSROC) and bivariate model were performed to evaluate the diagnostic performance of TE in the meta-analysis. Results: Eight studies (2,003 patients) were included. The summary sensitivity and specificity for diagnosis of significant liver fibrosis were 0.78 [95% confidence interval (CI), 0.66-0.86] and 0.72 (95% CI, 0.60-0.82), respectively. The HSROC for the diagnosis of significant liver fibrosis was 0.81 (95% CI, 0.72-0.86). The optimal cut-off value of TE for diagnosis of significant liver fibrosis was 7.7 kPa with a sensitivity of 0.64 (95% CI, 0.50-0.76) and specificity of 0.83 (95% CI, 0.72-0.90). Conclusions: Our study demonstrated that TE has an acceptable diagnostic performance for significant liver fibrosis in AVT-naïve CHB patients with ALT within 5-fold the ULN.

Diagnostic accuracy of the Fibrosis-4 index for advanced liver fibrosis in metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease with type 2 diabetes: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

Background/Aims: The Fibrosis-4 index (FIB-4) is a non-invasive test widely used to rule out advanced liver fibrosis (AF) in patients with metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD). However, its diagnostic accuracy in MASLD patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) are controversial due to the high prevalence of AF in this population. Methods: Research focusing on the diagnostic accuracy of FIB-4 for liver fibrosis as validated by liver histology in MASLD patients with T2DM was included, and 12 studies (n=5,624) were finally included in the meta-analysis. Sensitivity, specificity, hierarchical summary receiver operating characteristic (HSROC), positive predictive values (PPVs), and negative predictive values (NPVs) at low cutoffs (1.3-1.67) and high cutoffs (2.67-3.25) for ruling in and out AF, were calculated. Results: At low cutoffs, the meta-analysis revealed a sensitivity of 0.74, specificity of 0.62, and HSROC of 0.75. At high cutoffs, the analysis showed a sensitivity of 0.33, specificity of 0.92, and HSROC of 0.85, suggesting FIB-4 as useful for identifying or excluding AF. In subgroup analyses, high mean age and F3 prevalence were associated with lower sensitivity. The calculated NPV and PPV were 0.82 and 0.49 at low cutoffs, whereas the NPV was 0.28 and the PPV was 0.70 at high cutoffs. There were insufficient estimated NPVs <0.90 at a hypothesized prevalence of AF >30% at an FIB-4 cutoff range of 1.3-1.67. Conclusions: Collectively, FIB-4 has moderate diagnostic accuracy for identifying or excluding AF in MASLD patients with T2DM, but more evidence must be accumulated due to the limited number of currently reported studies and their heterogeneity.

Prevalence of clinically significant liver fibrosis in the general population: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

Background/Aims: Although important, clinically significant liver fibrosis is often overlooked in the general population. We aimed to examine the prevalence of clinically significant liver fibrosis using noninvasive tests (NITs) in the general population. Methods: We collected data from four databases (MEDLINE, Embase, Cochrane Library, and KoreaMed) from inception to June 13, 2023. Original articles reporting the prevalence of clinically significant liver fibrosis in the general population were included. The Stata metaprop function was used to obtain the pooled prevalence of liver fibrosis with NITs in the general population. Results: We screened 6,429 articles and included 45 eligible studies that reported the prevalence of clinically significant liver fibrosis in the general population. The prevalence of advanced liver fibrosis, using the high probability cutoff of the fibrosis-4 (FIB-4) index, was 2.3% (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.2-3.7%). The prevalence of significant liver fibrosis, advanced liver fibrosis, and liver cirrhosis, assessed using vibration-controlled transient elastography (VCTE) among the general population, was 7.3% (95% CI, 5.9-8.8%), 3.5% (95% CI, 2.7-4.5), and 1.2% (95% CI, 0.8-1.8%), respectively. Region-based subgroup analysis revealed that the highest prevalence of advanced fibrosis using the high probability cutoff of the FIB-4 index was observed in the American region. Furthermore, the American region exhibits the highest prevalence of significant liver fibrosis, advanced liver fibrosis, and liver cirrhosis, using VCTE. Conclusions: Previously undiagnosed clinically significant liver fibrosis is found in the general population through NITs. Future research is necessary to stratify the risk in the general population.

Effect of direct-acting antivirals on disease burden of hepatitis C virus infection in South Korea in 2007-2021: a nationwide, multicentre, retrospective cohort study.

Background: It is unclear whether direct-acting antivirals (DAAs) treatment improves the disease burden in hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection. This study aimed to investigate the effect of DAA treatment on the reduction of disease burden in patients with HCV infection using individual participant data. Methods: This nationwide multicentre retrospective cohort study recruited patients with HCV infection from 29 tertiary institutions in South Korea. The data collection was done from medical records in each institution. The study included the untreated patients and the DAAs-treated patients and excluded those with a history of interferon-based treatments. Disease burden was the primary outcome, as represented by disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). Improvement in fibrosis after DAA treatment was assessed using APRI, FIB-4 index, and liver stiffness (LS) as assessed by transient elastography. Clinical outcomes were hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), decompensation, and mortality. Findings: Between January 1, 2007, and February 17, 2022, data from 11,725 patients with HCV infection, 8464 (72%) of whom were treated with DAAs, were analysed. DAA treatment significantly improved APRI- (median 0.64 [interquartile range (IQR), 0.35-1.31]-0.33 [0.23-0.52], p < 0.0001), FIB-4- (median 2.42 [IQR, 1.48-4.40]-1.93 [1.31-2.97], p < 0.0001), and liver LS-based fibrosis (median 7.4 [IQR, 5.3-12.3]-6.2 [4.6-10.2] kPa, p < 0.0001). During the median follow-up period of 27.5 months (IQR, 10.6-52.4), 469 patients died (4.0%), 586 (5.0%) developed HCC, and 580 (4.9%) developed decompensation. The APRI-based DALY estimate was significantly lower in the DAA group than in the untreated group (median 4.55 vs. 5.14 years, p < 0.0001), as was the FIB-4-based DALY estimate (median 5.43 [IQR, 3.00-6.44] vs. 5.79 [3.85-8.07] years, p < 0.0001). The differences between the untreated and DAA groups were greatest in patients aged 40-60 years. In multivariable analyses, the DAA group had a significantly reduced risk of HCC, decompensation, and mortality compared with the untreated group (hazard ratios: 0.41 [95% confidence interval (CI), 0.34-0.48], 0.31 [95% CI, 0.30-0.38], and 0.22 [95% CI, 0.17-0.27], respectively; p < 0.0001). Interpretation: Our findings suggest that DAA treatment is associated with the improvement of liver-related outcomes and a reduction of liver fibrosis-based disease burden in patients with HCV infection. However, further studies using liver biopsy are needed to clarify the effect of DAA treatment on the reduction in the exact fibrosis-based disease burden beyond noninvasive tests. Funding: The Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency.

Sorafenib vs. Lenvatinib in advanced hepatocellular carcinoma after atezolizumab/bevacizumab failure: A real-world study.

BACKGROUND/AIMS: Atezolizumab plus bevacizumab (ATE+BEV) therapy has become the recommended first-line therapy for patients with unresectable hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) because of favorable treatment responses. However, there is a lack of data on sequential regimens after ATE+BEV treatment failure. We aimed to investigate the clinical outcomes of patients with advanced HCC who received subsequent systemic therapy for disease progression after ATE+BEV. METHODS: This multicenter, retrospective study included patients who started second-line systemic treatment with sorafenib or lenvatinib after HCC progressed on ATE+BEV between August 2019 and December 2022. Treatment response was assessed using the Response Evaluation Criteria in Solid Tumors (version 1.1.). Clinical features of the two groups were balanced through propensity score (PS) matching. RESULTS: This study enrolled 126 patients, 40 (31.7%) in the lenvatinib group, and 86 (68.3%) in the sorafenib group. The median age was 63 years, and males were predominant (88.1%). In PS-matched cohorts (36 patients in each group), the objective response rate was similar between the lenvatinib- and sorafenib-treated groups (5.6% vs. 8.3%; P=0.643), but the disease control rate was superior in the lenvatinib group (66.7% vs. 22.2%; P<0.001). Despite the superior progression- free survival (PFS) in the lenvatinib group (3.5 vs. 1.8 months, P=0.001), the overall survival (OS, 10.3 vs. 7.5 months, P=0.353) did not differ between the two PS-matched treatment groups. CONCLUSION: In second-line therapy for unresectable HCC after ATE+BEV failure, lenvatinib showed better PFS and comparable OS to sorafenib in a real-world setting. Future studies with larger sample sizes and longer follow-ups are needed to optimize second-line treatment.

Asian Pacific Association for the Study of the Liver clinical practice guidelines on liver transplantation.

Liver transplantation is a highly complex and challenging field of clinical practice. Although it was originally developed in western countries, it has been further advanced in Asian countries through the use of living donor liver transplantation. This method of transplantation is the only available option in many countries in the Asia-Pacific region due to the lack of deceased organ donation. As a result of this clinical situation, there is a growing need for guidelines that are specific to the Asia-Pacific region. These guidelines provide comprehensive recommendations for evidence-based management throughout the entire process of liver transplantation, covering both deceased and living donor liver transplantation. In addition, the development of these guidelines has been a collaborative effort between medical professionals from various countries in the region. This has allowed for the inclusion of diverse perspectives and experiences, leading to a more comprehensive and effective set of guidelines.

Extrahepatic Malignancies Are the Leading Cause of Death in Patients with Chronic Hepatitis B without Cirrhosis: A Large Population-Based Cohort Study.

(1) Background: Accurate statistics on the causes of death in patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB) are lacking. We investigated mortality rates and causes of death over time. (2) Methods: Data on patients newly diagnosed with CHB from 2007 to 2010 (cohort 1, n = 223,424) and 2012 to 2015 (cohort 2, n = 177,966) were retrieved from the Korean National Health Insurance Service. Mortality data were obtained from Statistics Korea. The causes of death were classified as liver-related (hepatic decompensation or hepatocellular carcinoma [HCC]) or extrahepatic (cardiovascular-related, cerebrovascular-related, or extrahepatic malignancy-related). (3) Results: Over a 10-year follow-up period of 223,424 patients (cohort 1) with CHB, the overall mortality was 1.54 per 100 person-years. The mortality associated with HCC was the highest (0.65 per 100 person-years), followed by mortality related to extrahepatic malignancies (0.26 per 100 person-years), and cardio/cerebrovascular diseases (0.18 per 100 person-years). In the non-cirrhotic CHB (87.4%), 70% (11,198/15,996) of patients died due to non-liver-related causes over ten years. The 10-year overall mortality was 0.86 per 100 person-years. Among these, mortality due to extrahepatic malignancies had the highest rate (0.23 per 100 person-years), followed by mortality related to HCC (0.20 per 100 person-years), and cardio/cerebrovascular diseases (0.16 per 100 person-years). The 5-year mortality associated with extrahepatic malignancies increased from 0.36 per 100 person-years (cohort 1) to 0.40 per 100 person-years (cohort 2). (4) Conclusions: Mortality related to HCC decreased, whereas mortality related to extrahepatic malignancies increased in the antiviral era. Extrahepatic malignancies were the leading cause of death among patients with CHB without cirrhosis.

Impact of anthropometric parameters on outcomes in Asians with metabolic dysfunction-associated fatty liver disease.

BACKGROUND: We examined the incidence and predictors of clinical outcomes in metabolic dysfunction-associated fatty liver disease (MAFLD), focusing on anthropometric parameters. METHODS: Adult patients with MAFLD were identified in nationwide databases and a hospital cohort. Primary endpoints were atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) and advanced fibrosis. Logistic and Cox regression analyses were used to analyse the association between anthropometric parameters and endpoints. RESULTS: In total, 4407 of 15 256 (28.9%) and 6274 of 25 784 subjects (24.3%) had MAFLD in the nationwide database; of these, 403 (9.2%) and 437 (7.0%) subjects were of lean/normal weight, respectively. Compared to the overweight/obese group, the lean/normal weight group had a significantly lower muscle mass (15.0 vs. 18.9 kg) and handgrip strength (31.9 vs. 35.1 kg) and had a higher ASCVD risk (9.0% vs. 6.3% and 15.9% vs. 8.5%; Ps < 0.001). Sarcopenia (odds ratio [OR], 6.66; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.79-24.80) and handgrip strength (OR, 0.92; 95% CI, 0.86-0.97; Ps = 0.005) were associated with the ASCVD risk in the lean/normal weight group. In a hospital cohort (n = 1363), the ASCVD risk was significantly higher in the lean/normal weight group than in the overweight/obese group (median follow-up, 39.1 months). Muscle mass was inversely correlated with the ASCVD risk (hazard ratio [HR], 0.72; 95% CI, 0.56-0.94), while visceral adiposity was associated with advanced fibrosis (HR, 1.36; 95% CI, 1.10-1.69; Ps < 0.05). CONCLUSIONS: Muscle mass/strength was significantly associated with the ASCVD risk in patients with MAFLD. Visceral adiposity was an independent predictor of advanced fibrosis.

Five-year on-treatment variables-based PPACS model predicts subsequent hepatocellular carcinoma in entecavir/tenofovir-treated patients.

Considering the lower risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in chronic hepatitis B (CHB) patients receiving long-term potent antiviral therapy, models predicting HCC after 5 years of therapy are needed. We conducted a multicenter retrospective cohort study to construct and validate a model predicting HCC after 5 years of entecavir (ETV) or tenofovir (TFV) therapy for CHB. The endpoint was HCC after 5 years of ETV/TFV therapy. Information on age, sex, liver cirrhosis (assessed by diagnosis code and confirmed by clinical findings) and type of antiviral agent was obtained at baseline (initiation of ETV/TFV). Laboratory values were collected at baseline and 5 years. Risk factors for HCC were identified in the training set and the final prediction model was validated using the test set. Among 7542 patients, 345 (4.6%) developed HCC after 5 years of ETV/TFV therapy. HCC risk after 5 years of ETV/TFV therapy was increased by 4-fold in patients with liver cirrhosis than in those without cirrhosis at baseline. Furthermore, Platelet counts and Prothrombin time at 5 years, Age at baseline and Sex were associated with risk of HCC and were incorporated into a prediction model, PPACS. PPACS showed a good performance with a time-dependent area under the curve of 0.80 (95% confidence interval, 0.75-0.85) at 8-year of ETV/TFV therapy, a Brier score of 0.031 and an integrated Brier score of 0.006 in the test set. In conclusion, the PPACS model provides a reliable assessment of HCC risk after 5 years of ETV/TFV therapy (https://ppacs.shinyapps.io/shiny_app_up/).

A machine learning model for predicting hepatocellular carcinoma risk in patients with chronic hepatitis B.

BACKGROUND: Machine learning (ML) algorithms can be used to overcome the prognostic performance limitations of conventional hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) risk models. We established and validated an ML-based HCC predictive model optimized for patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB) infections receiving antiviral therapy (AVT). METHODS: Treatment-naïve CHB patients who were started entecavir (ETV) or tenofovir disoproxil fumarate (TDF) were enrolled. We used a training cohort (n = 960) to develop a novel ML model that predicted HCC development within 5 years and validated the model using an independent external cohort (n = 1937). ML algorithms consider all potential interactions and do not use predefined hypotheses. RESULTS: The mean age of the patients in the training cohort was 48 years, and most patients (68.9%) were men. During the median 59.3 (interquartile range 45.8-72.3) months of follow-up, 69 (7.2%) patients developed HCC. Our ML-based HCC risk prediction model had an area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.900, which was better than the AUCs of CAMD (0.778) and REAL B (0.772) (both p < .05). The better performance of our model was maintained (AUC = 0.872 vs. 0.788 for CAMD and 0.801 for REAL B) in the validation cohort. Using cut-off probabilities of 0.3 and 0.5, the cumulative incidence of HCC development differed significantly among the three risk groups (p < .001). CONCLUSIONS: Our new ML model performed better than models in terms of predicting the risk of HCC development in CHB patients receiving AVT.

Changes in liver stiffness values assessed using transient elastography in chronic hepatitis B patients treated with tenofovir disoproxil fumarate: a prospective observational study.

BACKGROUND/AIMS: Regression of liver fibrosis during antiviral therapy in chronic hepatitis B (CHB) patients has been demonstrated, but data on the influence of long-term treatment with tenofovir disoproxil fumarate (TDF) on liver stiffness (LS) measured by transient elastography are scarce. We aimed to investigate the changes in LS values during the 144-week TDF therapy in treatment-naïve CHB patients. METHODS: This prospective observational study was conducted from April 2015 to July 2020 at CHA Bundang Medical Center. Laboratory tests and LS measurements were performed at baseline and repeated at weeks 12, 24, 48, 96, and 144. A significant decline in LS was defined as ≥ 30% decrease in LS value at week 96 from baseline. RESULTS: A total of 48 treatment-naïve CHB patients initiating TDF therapy were screened, and 36 patients were included in the final analysis (median age, 46 [interquartile range, 34.5-55.8] years; 19 men [52.8%]). During TDF therapy, the median LS values decreased from 13.8 kPa at baseline to 8.7 kPa, 6.5 kPa, and 6.4 kPa at weeks 48, 96, and 144, respectively (all P < 0.001). At week 96, virological and biochemical responses were achieved in 34 (94.4%) patients and 20 (76.9%) patients, respectively. Moreover, 21 of 36 (58.3%) patients showed a significant decline in LS value. A higher baseline LS value was a single independent predictor for the reduction in LS value at week 96 from baseline (P < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: During the 144-week TDF therapy, LS values declined significantly in treatment-naïve CHB patients.

Core indicators related to the elimination of hepatitis B and C virus infection in South Korea: A nationwide study.

BACKGROUND/AIMS: To eliminate hepatitis B virus (HBV) and hepatitis C virus (HCV) according to the World Health Organization (WHO) criteria in 2021, this study investigated the national core indicators representing the current status of viral hepatitis B and C in South Korea. METHODS: We analyzed the incidence, linkage-to-care, treatment, and mortality rates of HBV and HCV infection using the integrated nationwide big data of South Korea. RESULTS: According to data from 2018-2020, the incidence of acute HBV infection in South Korea was 0.71 cases per 100,000 population; tthe linkage-to-care rate was only 39.4%. Among those who need hepatitis B treatment, the treatment rate was 67.3%, which was less than 80% reported in the WHO program index. The annual liver-related mortality due to HBV was 18.85 cases per 100,000 population, exceeding the WHO target of four; the most frequent cause of death was liver cancer (54.1%). The annual incidence of newly diagnosed HCV infection was 11.9 cases per 100,000 population, which was higher than the WHO impact target of five. Among HCV-infected patients, the linkage-to-care rate was 65.5% while the treatment rate was 56.8%, which were below the targets of 90% and 80%, respectively. The liver-related annual mortality rate due to HCV infection was 2.02 cases per 100,000 population. CONCLUSION: Many of the current indicators identified in the Korean population did not satisfy the WHO criteria for validation of viral hepatitis elimination. Hence, a comprehensive national strategy should be urgently developed with continuous monitoring of the targets in South Korea.

The Incidence and Care Cascade of the Hepatitis C Virus in Korea.

Background/Aims: The 2030 hepatitis C virus (HCV) elimination targets of the World Health Organization are an 80% reduction in incidence and 65% reduction in mortality compared to the 2015 rates. However, information on the nationwide incidence and treatment rates of HCV infection are limited. We aimed to investigate the nationwide incidence and status of the care cascade for HCV infection in Korea. Methods: This study used data from the Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency linked with the data of the Korea National Health Insurance Service. Linkage to care was defined as visiting hospitals twice or more due to HCV infection within 1.5 years of the index date. The treatment rate was the number who had been prescribed antiviral medication within 1.5 years from the index date out of patients newly diagnosed with HCV. Results: The new HCV infection rate was 17.2 per 100,000 person-years (n=8,810) in 2019. The number of new HCV infections was the highest in patients aged 50 to 59 years (n=2,480), and the new HCV infection rate significantly increased with age (p<0.001). Among newly infected patients with HCV, the linkage to care rate was 78.2% (78.2% men, 78.2% women) and the treatment rate was 58.1% (56.8% men, 59.3% women) within 1.5 years. Conclusions: The new HCV infection rate was 17.2 per 100,000 person-years in Korea. It is necessary to continuously monitor the incidence and care cascade of HCV to establish proper strategies to reach the goal of HCV elimination by 2030.

Hepatocellular carcinoma incidence is decreasing in Korea but increasing in the very elderly.

BACKGROUND/AIMS: A comprehensive analysis of trends in the incidence of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is important for planning public health initiatives. We aimed to analyze the trends in HCC incidence in South Korea over 10 years and to predict the incidence for the year 2028. METHODS: Data from patients with newly diagnosed HCC between 2008 and 2018 were obtained from Korean National Health Insurance Service database. Age-standardized incidence rates (ASRs) were calculated to compare HCC incidence. A poisson regression model was used to predict the future incidence of HCC. RESULTS: The average crude incidence rate (CR) was 22.4 per 100,000 person-years, and the average ASR was 17.6 per 100,000 person-years between 2008 and 2018. The CR (from 23.9 to 21.2 per 100,000 person-years) and ASR (from 21.9 to 14.3 per 100,000 person-years) of HCC incidence decreased during the past ten years in all age groups, except in the elderly. The ASR of patients aged ≥80 years increased significantly (from 70.0 to 160.2/100,000 person-years; average annual percent change, +9.00%; P<0.001). The estimated CR (17.9 per 100,000 person-years) and ASR (9.7 per 100,000 person-years) of HCC incidence in 2028 was declined, but the number of HCC patients aged ≥80 years in 2028 will be quadruple greater than the number of HCC patients in 2008 (from 521 to 2,055), comprising 21.3% of all HCC patients in 2028. CONCLUSION: The ASRs of HCC in Korea have gradually declined over the past 10 years, but the number, CR, and ASR are increasing in patients aged ≥80 years.

Predictive biomarkers of survival in patients with advanced hepatocellular carcinoma receiving atezolizumab plus bevacizumab treatment.

BACKGROUND: Since atezolizumab plus bevacizumab (ATE+BEV) regimen for patients with unresectable hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) was released quite recently, real-world data are lacking. We evaluated efficacy, safety, and predictive biomarkers for survival in patients receiving ATE+BEV. METHODS: Between 2020 and 2021, HCC patients receiving ATE+BEV at academic teaching hospitals were recruited. Treatment response was assessed using the Response Evaluation Criteria in Solid Tumors (version 1.1.). RESULTS: Among 121 patients enrolled, the median age was 63 years, with male predominance (82.6%). Complete response, partial response, stable disease, and progressive disease were identified in 2.5%, 26.4%, 54.5%, and 16.6%, respectively. Patients with alpha-fetoprotein and des-gamma-carboxy prothrombin (DCP) response, defined as ≥30% and ≥50% decreases, respectively, at the first response evaluation relative to baseline, and those with neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) <2.5, had significantly higher objective response rates (42.6% vs. 21.5%, 50.0% vs. 26.2%, and 39.0% vs. 19.4%, respectively; all p < 0.05). During follow-up, the median overall survival (OS) was not reached, and the median progression-free survival (PFS) was 5.7 months. Multivariable analyses showed that macrovascular invasion (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] 2.541; p = 0.017), DCP ≥186 mAU/ml (aHR 5.102; p < 0.001), NLR ≥2.5 (aHR 3.584; p = 0.001), and an NLR decrease ≥10% at the first response (aHR 0.305; p = 0.002) were independent predictors of OS, and DCP ≥186 mAU (aHR 2.311; p = 0.002) and NLR ≥2.5 (aHR 1.938; p = 0.012) were independent predictors of PFS. Grade ≥3 treatment-related adverse events (AEs) occurred in 33 (27.3%) patients. CONCLUSION: ATE+BEV showed favorable efficacy and safety. Baseline high DCP and NLR may be useful prognostic predictors for OS and PFS.

Regular Alpha-Fetoprotein Tests Boost Curative Treatment and Survival for Hepatocellular Carcinoma Patients in an Endemic Area.

Guidelines vary on alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) testing for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) screening. This study aims to reassess AFP's role in HCC surveillance, utilizing a comprehensive, recent, nationwide cohort. Utilizing the National Health Claims Database from the Korean National Health Insurance Service, this research included data from 185,316 HCC patients registered between 2008 and 2018. Specifically, 81,520 patients diagnosed with HCC from 2008 to 2014 were analyzed. The study focused primarily on mortality and, secondarily, on the status of curative treatments. Multivariate analysis revealed that frequent AFP testing significantly impacts overall survival in HCC patients. Specifically, each additional AFP test correlated with a 6% relative improvement in survival (hazard ratio = 0.94, 95% CI: 0.940-0.947, p < 0.001). Patients who underwent AFP testing three or more times within two years prior to HCC diagnosis showed improved survival rates, with 55.6% receiving liver transplantation or hepatectomy. This trend was particularly pronounced in hepatitis B patients undergoing antiviral treatment. The findings highlight the potential of regular AFP testing to enhance survival in HCC patients, especially those with hepatitis B. Integrating frequent AFP testing with ultrasonography could increase the likelihood of early detection and access to curative treatments.