Association of Metformin Use During Hospitalization and Mortality in Critically Ill Adults With Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus and Sepsis.

OBJECTIVES: Whether metformin exposure is associated with improved outcomes in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus and sepsis. DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study. SETTING: Patients admitted to ICUs in 16 hospitals in Pennsylvania from October 2008 to December 2014. PATIENTS: Adult critical ill patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus and sepsis. INTERVENTIONS: None. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: We conducted a retrospective cohort study to compare 90-day mortality in diabetic patients with sepsis with and without exposure to metformin during hospitalization. Data were obtained from the electronic health record of a large healthcare system in Pennsylvania from October 2008 to December 2014, on patients admitted to the ICU at any of the 16 hospitals within the system. The primary outcome was mortality at 90 days. The absolute and adjusted odds ratio (OR) with 95% CI were calculated in a propensity score-matched cohort. Among 14,847 patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus and sepsis, 682 patients (4.6%) were exposed to metformin during hospitalization and 14,165 (95.4%) were not. Within a total of 2,691 patients subjected to propensity score-matching at a 1:4 ratio, exposure to metformin (n = 599) was associated with decreased 90-day mortality (71/599, 11.9% vs 475/2,092, 22.7%; OR, 0.46; 95% CI, 0.35-0.60), reduced severe acute kidney injury (50% vs 57%; OR, 0.75; 95% CI, 0.62-0.90), less Major Adverse Kidney Events at 1 year (OR, 0.27; 95% CI, 0.22-0.68), and increased renal recovery (95% vs 86%; OR, 6.43; 95% CI, 3.42-12.1). CONCLUSIONS: Metformin exposure during hospitalization is associated with a decrease in 90-day mortality in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus and sepsis.

Sepsis Subclasses: A Framework for Development and Interpretation.

Sepsis is defined as a dysregulated host response to infection that leads to life-threatening acute organ dysfunction. It afflicts approximately 50 million people worldwide annually and is often deadly, even when evidence-based guidelines are applied promptly. Many randomized trials tested therapies for sepsis over the past 2 decades, but most have not proven beneficial. This may be because sepsis is a heterogeneous syndrome, characterized by a vast set of clinical and biologic features. Combinations of these features, however, may identify previously unrecognized groups, or "subclasses" with different risks of outcome and response to a given treatment. As efforts to identify sepsis subclasses become more common, many unanswered questions and challenges arise. These include: 1) the semantic underpinning of sepsis subclasses, 2) the conceptual goal of subclasses, 3) considerations about study design, data sources, and statistical methods, 4) the role of emerging data types, and 5) how to determine whether subclasses represent "truth." We discuss these challenges and present a framework for the broader study of sepsis subclasses. This framework is intended to aid in the understanding and interpretation of sepsis subclasses, provide a mechanism for explaining subclasses generated by different methodologic approaches, and guide clinicians in how to consider subclasses in bedside care.

Reading the Mind in the Eyes: A Population-Based Study of Social Cognition in Older Adults.

BACKGROUND: Social cognition indicates the cognitive processes involved in perceiving, interpreting, and processing social information. Although it is one of the six core DSM-5 cognitive domains for diagnosing neurocognitive disorders, it is not routinely assessed in older adults. The Reading the Mind in the Eyes Test assesses Theory of Mind, the social cognition mechanism which forms the root of empathy. OBJECTIVES: To describe the distribution of, and factors associated with, scores on a 10-item version of Reading the Mind in the Eyes Test (RMET-10) in older adults. DESIGN: Population-based cross-sectional study. SETTING: Small-town communities in Pennsylvania. PARTICIPANTS: Adults aged 66-105 years (N = 902, mean age = 76.6). MEASUREMENTS: The assessment included RMET-10, demographics, cognitive screening, literacy, depression symptoms, anxiety symptoms, cognitive composites derived from a neuropsychological test battery, Social Norms Questionnaire, and Clinical Dementia Rating (CDR). RESULTS: RMET-10 score was normally distributed in our overall study sample. Normative RMET-10 scores among those rated as CDR = 0 were calculated by age, sex, and education. RMET-10 score was significantly higher with younger age, higher education, white race, higher cognitive screening scores, literacy, social norms scores, higher scores in all five domains in cognitive composites, and lower CDR. RMET-10 score was also significantly higher with fewer depression and anxiety symptoms after adjusting for demographics. CONCLUSIONS: The RMET is a potentially useful measure of social cognition for use in the research assessment of older adults. With appropriate calibration it should also have utility in the clinical setting.

Economic Analysis of Mandated Protocolized Sepsis Care in New York Hospitals.

OBJECTIVES: Initial evidence suggests that state-level regulatory mandates for sepsis quality improvement are associated with decreased sepsis mortality. However, sepsis mandates require financial investments on the part of hospitals and may lead to increased spending. We evaluated the effects of the 2013 New York State sepsis regulations on the costs of care for patients hospitalized with sepsis. DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study using state discharge data from the U.S. Healthcare Costs and Utilization Project and a comparative interrupted time series analytic approach. Costs were calculated from admission-level charge data using hospital-specific cost-to-charge ratios. SETTING: General, short stay, acute care hospitals in New York, and four control states: Florida, Massachusetts, Maryland, and New Jersey. PATIENTS: All patients hospitalized with sepsis between January 1, 2011, and September 30, 2015. INTERVENTIONS: The 2013 New York mandate that all hospitals develop and implement protocols for sepsis identification and treatment, educate staff, and report performance data to the state. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: The analysis included 1,026,664 admissions in 520 hospitals. Mean unadjusted costs per hospitalization in New York State were $42,036 ± $60,940 in the pre-regulation period and $39,719 ± $59,063 in the post-regulation period, compared with $34,642 ± $52,403 pre-regulation and $31,414 ± $48,155 post-regulation in control states. In the comparative interrupted time series analysis, the regulations were not associated with a significant difference in risk-adjusted mean cost per hospitalization (p = 0.12) or risk-adjusted mean cost per hospital day (p = 0.44). For example, in the 10th quarter after implementation of the regulations, risk-adjusted mean cost per hospitalization was $3,627 (95% CI, -$681 to $7,934) more than expected in New York State relative to control states. CONCLUSIONS: Mandated protocolized sepsis care was not associated with significant changes in hospital costs in patients hospitalized with sepsis in New York State.

A Multicenter Study of the Causes and Consequences of Optimistic Expectations About Prognosis by Surrogate Decision-Makers in ICUs.

OBJECTIVES: Optimistic expectations about prognosis by surrogate decision-makers in ICUs are common, but there are few data about the causes and clinical consequences. Our objective was to determine the causes of optimistic expectations about prognosis among surrogates and whether it is associated with more use of life support at the end of life. DESIGN: Prospective, multicenter cohort study from 2009 to 2012. SETTING: Twelve ICUs from multiple regions of the United States. SUBJECTS: The surrogates and physicians of 275 incapacitated ICU patients at high risk of death. INTERVENTIONS: None. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: Surrogates and physicians completed a validated instrument assessing their prognostic expectations for hospital survival. We determined the proportion of surrogates with optimistic expectations, defined as a prognostic estimate that was at least 20% more optimistic than the physician's, then determined how frequently this arose from surrogates miscomprehending the physicians' prognosis versus holding more hopeful beliefs compared with the physician. We used multivariable regression to examine whether optimistic expectations were associated with length of stay, stratified by survival status, and time to withdrawal of life support among nonsurvivors. Overall, 45% of surrogates (95% CI, 38-51%) held optimistic expectations about prognosis, which arose from a combination of misunderstanding the physician's prognostic expectations and from holding more hopeful beliefs compared with the physician. Optimistic expectations by surrogates were associated with significantly longer duration of ICU treatment among nonsurvivors before death (ß coefficient = 0.44; 95% CI, 0.05-0.83; p = 0.027), corresponding to a 56% longer ICU stay. This difference was associated with a significantly longer time to withdrawal of life support among dying patients whose surrogates had optimistic prognostic expectations compared with those who did not (ß coefficient = 0.61; 95% CI, 0.16-1.07; p = 0.009). CONCLUSIONS: The prevalent optimism about prognosis among surrogates in ICUs arises both from surrogates' miscomprehension of physicians' prognostications and from surrogates holding more hopeful beliefs. This optimism is associated with longer duration of life support at the end of life.

Evaluation of Repeated Quick Sepsis-Related Organ Failure Assessment Measurements Among Patients With Suspected Infection.

OBJECTIVES: Among patients with suspected infection, a single measurement of the quick Sepsis-related Organ Failure Assessment has good predictive validity for sepsis, yet the increase in validity from repeated measurements is unknown. We sought to determine the incremental predictive validity for sepsis of repeated quick Sepsis-related Organ Failure Assessment measurements over 48 hours compared with the initial measurement. DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study. SETTING: Twelve hospitals in southwestern Pennsylvania in 2012. PATIENTS: All adult medical and surgical encounters in the emergency department, hospital ward, postanesthesia care unit, and ICU. INTERVENTIONS: None. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: Among 1.3 million adult encounters, we identified those with a first episode of suspected infection. Using the maximum quick Sepsis-related Organ Failure Assessment score in each 6-hour epoch from onset of suspected infection until 48 hours later, we characterized repeated quick Sepsis-related Organ Failure Assessment with: 1) summary measures (e.g., mean over 48 hr), 2) crude trajectory groups, and 3) group-based trajectory modeling. We measured the predictive validity of repeated quick Sepsis-related Organ Failure Assessment using incremental changes in the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for in-hospital mortality beyond that of baseline risk (age, sex, race/ethnicity, and comorbidity). Of 37,591 encounters with suspected infection, 1,769 (4.7%) died before discharge. Both the mean quick Sepsis-related Organ Failure Assessment at 48 hours (area under the receiver operating characteristic, 0.86 [95% CI, 0.85-0.86]) and crude trajectory groups (area under the receiver operating characteristic, 0.83 [95% CI, 0.83-0.83]) improved predictive validity compared with initial quick Sepsis-related Organ Failure Assessment (area under the receiver operating characteristic, 0.79 [95% CI, 0.78-0.80]) (p < 0.001 for both). Group-based trajectory modeling found five trajectories (quick Sepsis-related Organ Failure Assessment always low, increasing, decreasing, moderate, and always high) with greater predictive validity than the initial measurement (area under the receiver operating characteristic, 0.85 [95% CI, 0.84-0.85]; p < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Repeated measurements of quick Sepsis-related Organ Failure Assessment improve predictive validity for sepsis using in-hospital mortality compared with a single measurement of quick Sepsis-related Organ Failure Assessment at the time a clinician suspects infection.

Children with Chronic Disease Bear the Highest Burden of Pediatric Sepsis.

OBJECTIVE: To describe the contemporary epidemiology of pediatric sepsis in children with chronic disease, and the contribution of chronic diseases to mortality. We examined the incidence and hospital mortality of pediatric sepsis in a nationally representative sample and described the contribution of chronic diseases to hospital mortality. STUDY DESIGN: We analyzed the 2013 Nationwide Readmissions Database using a retrospective cohort design. We included non-neonatal patients <19 years of age hospitalized with sepsis. We examined patient characteristics, the distribution of chronic disease, and the estimated national incidence, and described hospital mortality. We used mixed effects logistic regression to explore the association between chronic diseases and hospital mortality. RESULTS: A total of 16 387 admissions, representing 14 243 unique patients, were for sepsis. The national incidence was 0.72 cases per 1000 per year (54 060 cases annually). Most (68.6%) had a chronic disease. The in-hospital mortality was 3.7% overall-0.7% for previously healthy patients and 5.1% for patients with chronic disease. In multivariable analysis, oncologic, hematologic, metabolic, neurologic, cardiac and renal disease, and solid organ transplantation were associated with increased in-hospital mortality. CONCLUSIONS: More than 2 of 3 children admitted with sepsis have ≥1 chronic disease and these patients have a higher in-hospital mortality than previously healthy patients. The burden of sepsis in hospitalized children is greatest in pediatric patients with chronic disease.

Differences in Hospital Risk-standardized Mortality Rates for Acute Myocardial Infarction When Assessed Using Transferred and Nontransferred Patients.

BACKGROUND: One in 5 patients with acute myocardial infarction (AMI) are transferred between hospitals. However, current hospital performance measures based on AMI mortality exclude these patients from the evaluation of referral hospitals. OBJECTIVE: To determine the relationship between risk-standardized mortality for transferred and nontransferred patients at referral hospitals. RESEARCH DESIGN: This is a retrospective cohort study. SUBJECTS: Fee-for-service Medicare claims from 2011 for patients hospitalized with a primary diagnosis of AMI, at hospitals admitting at least 15 patients in transfer. MEASURES: Hospital-specific risk-standardized 30-day mortality rates (RSMRs) for 2 groups of patients: those admitted through transfer from another hospital, and those natively admitted without a preceding or subsequent interhospital transfer. RESULTS: There were 304 hospitals admitting at least 15 patients in transfer. These hospitals cared for 77,711 natively admitted patients (median, 254; interquartile range, 162-321), and 11,829 patients admitted in transfer (median, 26; interquartile range, 19-46). Risk-standardized mortality rates were higher for natively admitted patients than for those admitted in transfer (mean, 11.5%±1.2% vs. 7.2%±1.1%). There was weak correlation between hospital performance as assessed by RSMR for patients natively admitted versus those admitted in transfer (Pearson r=0.24, P<0.001); when performance was arrayed by quartile, 102 hospitals (33.6%) differed at least 2 quartiles of performance across the 2 patient groups. CONCLUSIONS: For Medicare patients with AMI, hospital-specific RSMRs for natively admitted patients are only weakly associated with RSMRs for patients transferred in from another hospital. Current AMI performance metrics may fail to provide guidance about hospital quality for transferred patients.

An Examination of Claims-based Predictors of Overdose from a Large Medicaid Program.

BACKGROUND: Health systems may play an important role in identification of patients at-risk of opioid medication overdose. However, standard measures for identifying overdose risk in administrative data do not exist. OBJECTIVE: Examine the association between opioid medication overdose and 2 validated measures of nonmedical use of prescription opioids within claims data. RESEARCH DESIGN: A longitudinal retrospective cohort study that estimated associations between overdose and nonmedical use. SUBJECTS: Adult Pennsylvania Medicaid program 2007-2012 patients initiating opioid treatment who were: nondual eligible, without cancer diagnosis, and not in long-term care facilities or receiving hospice. MEASURES: Overdose (International Classification of Disease, ninth edition, prescription opioid poisonings codes), opioid abuse (opioid use disorder diagnosis while possessing an opioid prescription), opioid misuse (a composite indicator of number of opioid prescribers, number of pharmacies, and days supplied), and dose exposure during opioid treatment episodes. RESULTS: A total of 372,347 Medicaid enrollees with 583,013 new opioid treatment episodes were included in the cohort. Opioid overdose was higher among those with abuse (1.5%) compared with those without (0.2%, P<0.001). Overdose was higher among those with probable (1.8%) and possible (0.9%) misuse compared with those without (0.2%, P<0.001). Abuse [adjusted rate ratio (ARR), 1.52; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.10-2.10), probable misuse (ARR, 1.98; 95% CI, 1.46-2.67), and possible misuse (ARR, 1.76; 95% CI, 1.48-2.09) were associated with significantly more events of opioid medication overdose compared with those without. CONCLUSIONS: Claims-based measures can be used by health systems to identify individuals at-risk of overdose who can be targeted for restrictions on opioid prescribing, dispensing, or referral to treatment.

Effect of a Quality Improvement Intervention With Daily Round Checklists, Goal Setting, and Clinician Prompting on Mortality of Critically Ill Patients: A Randomized Clinical Trial.

IMPORTANCE: The effectiveness of checklists, daily goal assessments, and clinician prompts as quality improvement interventions in intensive care units (ICUs) is uncertain. OBJECTIVE: To determine whether a multifaceted quality improvement intervention reduces the mortality of critically ill adults. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: This study had 2 phases. Phase 1 was an observational study to assess baseline data on work climate, care processes, and clinical outcomes, conducted between August 2013 and March 2014 in 118 Brazilian ICUs. Phase 2 was a cluster randomized trial conducted between April and November 2014 with the same ICUs. The first 60 admissions of longer than 48 hours per ICU were enrolled in each phase. INTERVENTIONS: Intensive care units were randomized to a quality improvement intervention, including a daily checklist and goal setting during multidisciplinary rounds with follow-up clinician prompting for 11 care processes, or to routine care. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: In-hospital mortality truncated at 60 days (primary outcome) was analyzed using a random-effects logistic regression model, adjusted for patients' severity and the ICU's baseline standardized mortality ratio. Exploratory secondary outcomes included adherence to care processes, safety climate, and clinical events. RESULTS: A total of 6877 patients (mean age, 59.7 years; 3218 [46.8%] women) were enrolled in the baseline (observational) phase and 6761 (mean age, 59.6 years; 3098 [45.8%] women) in the randomized phase, with 3327 patients enrolled in ICUs (n = 59) assigned to the intervention group and 3434 patients in ICUs (n = 59) assigned to routine care. There was no significant difference in in-hospital mortality between the intervention group and the usual care group, with 1096 deaths (32.9%) and 1196 deaths (34.8%), respectively (odds ratio, 1.02; 95% CI, 0.82-1.26; P = .88). Among 20 prespecified secondary outcomes not adjusted for multiple comparisons, 6 were significantly improved in the intervention group (use of low tidal volumes, avoidance of heavy sedation, use of central venous catheters, use of urinary catheters, perception of team work, and perception of patient safety climate), whereas there were no significant differences between the intervention group and the control group for 14 outcomes (ICU mortality, central line-associated bloodstream infection, ventilator-associated pneumonia, urinary tract infection, mean ventilator-free days, mean ICU length of stay, mean hospital length of stay, bed elevation to ≥30°, venous thromboembolism prophylaxis, diet administration, job satisfaction, stress reduction, perception of management, and perception of working conditions). CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: Among critically ill patients treated in ICUs in Brazil, implementation of a multifaceted quality improvement intervention with daily checklists, goal setting, and clinician prompting did not reduce in-hospital mortality. TRIAL REGISTRATION: clinicaltrials.gov Identifier: NCT01785966.

Inflammatory/hemostatic biomarkers and coronary artery calcification in midlife women of African-American and White race/ethnicity: the Study of Women's Health Across the Nation (SWAN) heart study.

OBJECTIVE: Inflammatory/hemostatic biomarkers are associated with coronary heart disease events, but relationships in asymptomatic midlife women are uncertain. We evaluated separately whether high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hsCRP), fibrinogen, plasminogen-activator inhibitor 1, tissue plasminogen activator antigen, and circulating factor VII (factor VIIc) were associated with coronary artery calcification (CAC) in healthy midlife women. METHODS: A cross-sectional study was performed of participants from the Study of Women's Health Across the Nation. Logistic and Tobit regression was used to assess associations between log-transformed biomarkers, and CAC presence (CAC > 0) and extent. Effect modification by race/ethnicity was evaluated. RESULTS: The study included 372 women (mean age 51.3 y; 35.2% African-American). All biomarkers were positively associated with CAC presence and extent (P < 0.001 for all), adjusting for Framingham risk score, site, race/ethnicity, menopause status, income, and education. Additional adjustment for body mass index explained all associations except for factor VIIc, which remained associated with CAC extent only (P = 0.02). Final adjustment for insulin resistance, family history of cardiovascular disease, and cardiovascular medication use produced similar results. Associations between hsCRP, and CAC presence and extent were modified by race/ethnicity (P < 0.05). Log(hsCRP) was positively associated with CAC presence (odds ratio 3.25; 95% CI, 1.53-6.90; P = 0.002; per 1 log unit increase) and CAC extent (ß = 19.66; SE = 7.67; P = 0.01; per 1 log unit increase) in African-Americans only. CONCLUSIONS: Inflammatory/hemostatic biomarkers were associated with CAC through obesity, except for factor VIIc. Among African-American women only, hsCRP was independently associated with CAC, suggesting that hsCRP may have a role in coronary heart disease prevention in African-American midlife women.

A cluster-randomised trial of a multifaceted quality improvement intervention in Brazilian intensive care units (Checklist-ICU trial): statistical analysis plan.

BACKGROUND: The Checklist During Multidisciplinary Visits for Reduction of Mortality in Intensive Care Units (Checklist- ICU) trial is a pragmatic, two-arm, cluster-randomised trial involving 118 intensive care units in Brazil, with the primary objective of determining if a multifaceted qualityimprovement intervention with a daily checklist, definition of daily care goals during multidisciplinary daily rounds and clinician prompts can reduce inhospital mortality. OBJECTIVE: To describe our trial statistical analysis plan (SAP). METHODS: This is an ongoing trial conducted in two phases. In the preparatory observational phase, we collect three sets of baseline data: ICU characteristics; patient characteristics, processes of care and outcomes; and completed safety attitudes questionnaires (SAQs). In the randomised phase, ICUs are assigned to the experimental or control arms and we collect patient data and repeat the SAQ. RESULTS: Our SAP includes the prespecified model for the primary and secondary outcome analyses, which account for the cluster-randomised design and availability of baseline data. We also detail the multiple mediation models that we will use to assess our secondary hypothesis (that the effect of the intervention on inhospital mortality is mediated not only through care processes targeted by the checklist, but also through changes in safety culture). We describe our approach to sensitivity and subgroup analyses and missing data. CONCLUSION: We report our SAP before closing our study database and starting analysis. We anticipate that this should prevent analysis bias and enhance the utility of results.

A cluster randomized trial of a multifaceted quality improvement intervention in Brazilian intensive care units: study protocol.

BACKGROUND: The uptake of evidence-based therapies in the intensive care environment is suboptimal, particularly in limited-resource countries. Checklists, daily goal assessments, and clinician prompts may improve compliance with best practice processes of care and, in turn, improve clinical outcomes. However, the available evidence on the effectiveness of checklists is unreliable and inconclusive, and the mechanisms are poorly understood. We aim to evaluate whether the use of a multifaceted quality improvement intervention, including the use of a checklist and the definition of daily care goals during multidisciplinary daily rounds and clinician prompts, can improve the in-hospital mortality of patients admitted to intensive care units (ICUs). Our secondary objectives are to assess the effects of the study intervention on specific processes of care, clinical outcomes, and the safety culture and to determine which factors (the processes of care and/or safety culture) mediate the effect of the study intervention on mortality. METHODS/DESIGN: This is a cluster randomized trial involving 118 ICUs in Brazil conducted in two phases. In the observational preparatory phase, we collect baseline data on processes of care and clinical outcomes from 60 consecutive patients with lengths of ICU stay longer than 48 h and apply the Safety Attitudes Questionnaire (SAQ) to 75% or more of the health care staff in each ICU. In the randomized phase, we assign ICUs to the experimental or control arm and repeat data collection. Experimental arm ICUs receive the multifaceted quality improvement intervention, including a checklist and definition of daily care goals during daily multidisciplinary rounds, clinician prompting, and feedback on rates of adherence to selected care processes. Control arm ICUs maintain usual care. The primary outcome is in-hospital mortality, truncated at 60 days. Secondary outcomes include the rates of adherence to appropriate care processes, rates of other clinical outcomes, and scores on the SAQ domains. Analysis follows the intention-to-treat principle, and the primary outcome is analyzed using mixed effects logistic regression. DISCUSSION: This is a large scale, pragmatic cluster-randomized trial evaluating whether a multifaceted quality improvement intervention, including checklists applied during the multidisciplinary daily rounds and clinician prompting, can improve the adoption of proven therapies and decrease the mortality of critically ill patients. If this study finds that the intervention reduces mortality, it may be widely adopted in intensive care units, even those in limited-resource settings. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT01785966.

Rates and risk factors for progression to incident dementia vary by age in a population cohort.

OBJECTIVE: To estimate rate of progression from normal cognition or mild impairment to dementia, and to identify potential risk and protective factors for incident dementia, based on age at dementia onset in a prospective study of a population-based cohort (n = 1,982) aged 65 years and older. METHODS: Following the cohort annually for up to 5 years, we estimated incidence of dementia (Clinical Dementia Rating ≥1) among individuals previously normal or mildly impaired (Clinical Dementia Rating 0 or 0.5). In the whole cohort, and also stratified by median onset age, we examined several vascular, metabolic, and inflammatory variables as potential risk factors for developing dementia, using interval-censored survival models. RESULTS: Based on 67 incident cases of dementia, incidence rate (per 1,000 person-years) was 10.0 overall, 5.8 in those with median onset age of 87 years or younger, and 31.5 in those with onset age after 87 years. Adjusting for demographics, the risk of incident dementia with onset age of 87 years or younger (n = 33) was significantly increased by baseline smoking, stroke, low systolic blood pressure, and APOE*4 genotype, and reduced by current alcohol use. Among those with dementia with onset after 87 years (n = 34), no risk or protective factor was significant. CONCLUSION: Risk and protective factors were only found for incident dementia with onset before the median onset age of 87 years, and not for those with later onset. Either unexplored risk factors explain the continued increase in incidence with age, or unknown protective factors are allowing some individuals to delay onset into very old age.

How well do MCI criteria predict progression to severe cognitive impairment and dementia?

BACKGROUND: The International Working Group (IWG) criteria for mild cognitive impairment have variable utility in predicting progression to dementia, partly depending on the setting. We explored an empiric approach to optimize the criteria and cutoff points in a population study. METHODS: In a cohort of adults aged 65 years or older, we identified 1129 individuals with normal or only mildly impaired cognition by cognitive classification, and 1146 individuals without dementia (Clinical Dementia Rating <1). Operationally defining the IWG criterion set, we examined its sensitivity and specificity for the development of severe cognitive impairment and dementia (Clinical Dementia Rating ≥1) over 4 years. We then disaggregated the criteria and used Classification and Regression Tree analyses to identify the optimal predictive model. RESULTS: The operational IWG criteria had 49% sensitivity and 86% specificity for the outcome of severe cognitive impairment, and 40% sensitivity and 84% specificity for the outcome of dementia. Classification and Regression Tree modeling improved sensitivity to 82% for the cognitive outcome and 76% for the dementia outcome; specificity remained high. Memory scores were the most important predictors for both outcomes. The optimal cutoff points were around 1.0 SD below the age-education mean. The best fit was observed when prediction was modeled separately for each age-education group. CONCLUSIONS: Objective cognitive measurements contributed more to the prediction of dementia than subjective and functional measures. Those with less education only required memory testing, whereas those with more education required assessment of several cognitive domains. In cases in which only overall norms are available, the appropriate threshold will vary according to the individual's age and education.

Myocardial damage detected by late gadolinium enhancement cardiovascular magnetic resonance is associated with subsequent hospitalization for heart failure.

BACKGROUND: Hospitalization for heart failure (HHF) is among the most important problems confronting medicine. Late gadolinium enhancement (LGE) cardiovascular magnetic resonance (CMR) robustly identifies intrinsic myocardial damage. LGE may indicate inherent vulnerability to HHF, regardless of etiology, across the spectrum of heart failure stage or left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF). METHODS AND RESULTS: We enrolled 1068 consecutive patients referred for CMR where 448 (42%) exhibited LGE. After a median of 1.4 years (Q1 to Q3: 0.9 to 2.0 years), 57 HHF events occurred, 15 deaths followed HHF, and 43 deaths occurred without antecedent HHF (58 total deaths). Using multivariable Cox regression adjusting for LVEF, heart failure stage, and other covariates, LGE was associated with first HHF after CMR (HR: 2.70, 95% CI: 1.32 to 5.50), death (HR: 2.13, 95% CI: 1.08 to 4.21), or either death or HHF (HR: 2.52, 95% CI: 1.49 to 4.25). Quantifying LGE extent yielded similar results; more LGE equated higher risks. LGE improved model discrimination (IDI: 0.016, 95% CI: 0.005 to 0.028, P=0.002) and reclassification of individuals at risk (continuous NRI: 0.40, 95% CI: 0.05 to 0.70, P=0.024). Adjustment for competing risks of death that shares common risk factors with HHF strengthened the LGE and HHF association (HR: 4.85, 95% CI: 1.40 to 16.9). CONCLUSIONS: The presence and extent of LGE is associated with vulnerability for HHF, including higher risks of HHF across the spectrum of heart failure stage and LVEF. Even when LVEF is severely decreased, those without LGE appear to fare reasonably well. LGE may enhance risk stratification for HHF and may enhance both clinical and research efforts to reduce HHF through targeted treatment.

Health Beliefs about Osteoporosis and Osteoporosis Screening in Older Women and Men.

OBJECTIVE: To examine older adults' beliefs about osteoporosis and osteoporosis screening to identify barriers to screening. DESIGN: Cross-sectional mailed survey. SETTING: Western Pennsylvania. METHODS: Surveys were mailed to 1830 women and men aged 60 years and older. The survey assessed sociodemographic characteristics, osteoporosis and general health-related characteristics, and beliefs about osteoporosis severity, susceptibility, screening self-efficacy, and screening response efficacy. Analyses included Wilcoxon rank-sum tests to compare belief dimension scores, and multivariable ordinal logistic regression analyses to evaluate association between osteoporosis beliefs and potential explanatory variables. RESULTS: Surveys were completed by 1268 individuals (69.3 per cent). Mean age of respondents was 73.3 years, and most were female (58.7 per cent). Individuals demonstrated greatest belief in the severity of osteoporosis and least belief in personal susceptibility (P <.001). Older individuals believed less strongly than younger individuals in osteoporosis severity (OR, 0.95 per 1-year increase in age; 95 per cent CI, 0.92-0.97) and response efficacy (OR, 0.97 per 1-year increase in age; 95 per cent CI, 0.95-0.99). Women believed more strongly than men in osteoporosis susceptibility (OR, 1.87; 95 per cent CI, 1.38-2.53) and screening self-efficacy (OR, 2.87; 95 per cent CI, 1.17-7.07). Individuals with high self-rated health status had greater belief than those with low self-rated health status in screening self-efficacy (OR, 3.59; 95 per cent CI, 1.89-6.83). CONCLUSION: Older adults demonstrate several beliefs that may be barriers to osteoporosis screening, including low belief in susceptibility to osteoporosis. These beliefs should be targeted with patient education to improve screening rates.

Fractional mercury levels in Brazilian gold refiners and miners.

A field study survey of individuals residing in the region of Para, Brazil, was conducted to determine fractional mercury levels in individuals at risk for exposure in the Brazilian Amazon region. Subjects with a history of exposure to mercury either in the gold mining or refining industry, or exposure to these processes through proximity were included. Three groups were identified as either having recent (less than 2 d since last exposure), intermediate (less than 60 d), or remote (greater than 60 d) exposure to mercury vapors. Fractional blood and urinary mercury levels were assessed for these groups. Group I (recent) had the highest geometric mean blood 24.8 (SD 44.1, range 7.6-158.8) micrograms/L and urine 75.6 (SD 213.4, range 6.5-735.9) micrograms/g-cr (microgram mercury per gram of creatinine) mercury; intermediate (group II) geometric mean blood 7.6 (SD 5.5, range 2.2-19.4) micrograms/L and urine levels 23.8 (SD 84.0, range 7.8-297.0) micrograms/g-cr; the lowest levels in remote exposure (group III): geometric mean blood 5.6 (SD 3.3, range 3.1-14.3) micrograms/L and urine 7.0 (SD 9.8, range 3.1 to 32.9) micrograms/g-cr. The fraction of organic was lowest in group I (32.4%), higher in group II (65.7%), and highest in group III (72.2%). While the frequency of symptoms was comparable in the recent and intermediate groups (2.6 mean, SD 2.3, range 0-8, and 3.1 mean, SD 1.9, range 0-7, symptoms per patient), those with remote exposure demonstrated the highest rate of reporting (6.4 mean, SD 4.1, range 0-11, symptoms per patient). There is significant exposure to mercury for those working in or living near the mining and refining industry. Blood and urine levels are a better marker of recent than remote exposure. The fraction of organic mercury increases with time since exposure. Symptoms may be persistent and low levels of blood and urine mercury do not exclude remote or cumulative toxicity.