Causal impact analysis of weir opening on cyanobacterial blooms and water quality in the Yeongsan River, Korea: A bayesian structural time-series analysis and median difference test.

The construction of weirs in Korea's Four Major Rivers Project has led to an increase in cyanobacterial blooms, posing environmental challenges. To address this, the government began opening weirs in 2017. However, interpreting experimental results has proven to be complex due to the multifaceted nature of blooms. This study aimed to assess the impact of opening the Juksan Weir on cyanobacterial blooms and water quality in the Yeongsan River. Using a median difference test (MDT) and causal impact analysis (CIA) with Bayesian structural time-series (BSTS) models, changes in cyanobacterial cell density (Cyano) and chlorophyll a concentration (Chl-a) before (January 2013 to June 2017) and after (July 2017 to December 2021) the weir-opening event were analyzed. The MDT revealed no significant change in Cyano post-weir opening (p = 0.267), but Chl-a significantly increased by 48.1 % (p < 0.01). As a result of CIA, Cyano decreased, albeit statistically insignificantly (p = 0.454), while Chl-a increased by 59.0 % (p < 0.01). These findings contradict the expectation that Cyano decrease due to the increased flow velocity resulting from weir opening. The absence of changes in Cyano and the increase in Chl-a can be attributed to several factors, including the constrained and inadequate duration of full weir opening combined with conducive conditions for the proliferation of other algae such as diatoms and green algae. These findings suggest that the effectiveness of weir opening in controlling Cyano may have been compromised by factors influencing the overall aquatic ecosystem dynamics. Further analysis revealed that factors such as elevated water temperatures (≥ 30 °C) and reduced flow rates (< 37 m3/s) contributed to the flourishing of cyanobacteria, whose concentrations exceeded 10,000 cells/mL. In analyzing causal relationships in environmental management, especially when there are complex causal interactions, the application of MDT and CIA provides valuable insights.

Causal impact analysis of enhanced phosphorus effluent standard on river water quality.

The effect of environmental policies on water quality is an important factor in evaluating a project's impact and economic feasibility. The aim of this study was to evaluate the causal relationship between strengthening the total phosphorus (TP) concentration standard in wastewater treatment plant (WWTP) effluents and river water quality in the Geum River watershed (Rep. of Korea). Data, including precipitation, streamflow, and water quality, were collected for 2005-2020 and temporally divided into "before" and "after" the event of strengthening standards (in 2012). Further, the data were spatially divided into influence sites (impact) affected by the event and control sites (control) unaffected by the event. A median difference test for a before/after and control/impact (BACI) analysis and a causal impact analysis (CIA) based on a Bayesian structural time-series model were performed to evaluate the changes in water quality after the event. The BACI test showed that the TP concentration was reduced significantly (p-value<0.05) at all impact sites after the event, whereas the difference was not significant at the control sites. In contrast, other water quality variables, except TP, showed different statistical significance depending on the site. The CIA was performed by controlling the rainfall, flow rate, suspended solids, water temperature, biochemical oxygen demand, and chemical oxygen demand as covariates, which were selected based on a directed acyclic graph and bi-variable correlation analysis. The CIA results showed that the TP concentration was reduced significantly (p-value<0.05) at all impact sites, except for the control sites after the event, which is consistent with the BACI results. The causal impact of environmental management policies was previously difficult to evaluate by objectively targeting the natural systems because of the confounding bias. Our study demonstrated that strengthening the TP concentration standard from WWTPs majorly contributed to reducing TP in the receiving river, even when confounding factors, such as fluctuations in non-point source pollution loads caused by rainfall and runoff, were excluded. The statistical approaches used in this study can be valuable and practical methods for such evaluations if sufficient prior and posterior data and appropriate covariates are obtained.

Variability of pCO2 in surface waters and development of prediction model.

Inland waters are substantial sources of atmospheric carbon, but relevant data are rare in Asian monsoon regions including Korea. Emissions of CO2 to the atmosphere depend largely on the partial pressure of CO2 (pCO2) in water; however, measured pCO2 data are scarce and calculated pCO2 can show large uncertainty. This study had three objectives: 1) to examine the spatial variability of pCO2 in diverse surface water systems in Korea; 2) to compare pCO2 calculated using pH-total alkalinity (Alk) and pH-dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) with pCO2 measured by an in situ submersible nondispersive infrared detector; and 3) to characterize the major environmental variables determining the variation of pCO2 based on physical, chemical, and biological data collected concomitantly. Of 30 samples, 80% were found supersaturated in CO2 with respect to the overlying atmosphere. Calculated pCO2 using pH-Alk and pH-DIC showed weak prediction capability and large variations with respect to measured pCO2. Error analysis indicated that calculated pCO2 is highly sensitive to the accuracy of pH measurements, particularly at low pH. Stepwise multiple linear regression (MLR) and random forest (RF) techniques were implemented to develop the most parsimonious model based on 10 potential predictor variables (pH, Alk, DIC, Uw, Cond, Turb, COD, DOC, TOC, Chla) by optimizing model performance. The RF model showed better performance than the MLR model, and the most parsimonious RF model (pH, Turb, Uw, Chla) improved pCO2 prediction capability considerably compared with the simple calculation approach, reducing the RMSE from 527-544 to 105µatm at the study sites.

Occurrence of micropollutants in four major rivers in Korea.

There has been an increasing concern in recent years over the presence of numerous micropollutants in river water. Simultaneously, risk assessment of micropollutants has become increasingly important due to their high toxicity. Therefore, the aims of this study were to characterize the levels of micropollutants in rivers, to identify the sources of these pollutants, and to evaluate their risk quotients (RQ) to the ecological system. Monitoring data from 159 sites distributed across four major rivers in Korea were collected from the Ministry of the Environment (KME) reports. Tests were performed to check for the presence of 35 pollutants in river waters, from which 29 pollutants were detected. Organochlorine pesticides (OCPs) occurred most frequently, at low concentrations, whereas volatile organic compounds (VOCs) and phthalates were detected at higher concentrations. Based on this study, it was suggested that the factories near the sampling sites where pollutants were found represent one of the main sources of chemicals. After comparing the industrial activities with the measured pollutants, although the released amounts were not reported, representative intermediate chemicals were found in the river water. The RQs of most VOCs were below one, despite their concentration range being higher, compared with other pollutants. Methyl bromide and di-n-octyl phthalate occurred frequently in the Han River Basin and the Nakdong River Basin, respectively, and their RQs were consistently high, so further studies should focus on their exact emission source in order to reduce ecological risk. The results suggest that it will be necessary to develop methods of risk assessment that are more tailored to the various micropollutants present in river water, in addition to the implementation of water treatment systems to reduce ecological risk.

Prediction of the fate and transport processes of atrazine in a reservoir.

The fate and transport processes of a toxic chemical such as atrazine, an herbicide, in a reservoir are significantly influenced by hydrodynamic regimes of the reservoir. The two-dimensional (2D) laterally-integrated hydrodynamics and mass transport model, CE-QUAL-W2, was enhanced by incorporating a submodel for toxic contaminants and applied to Saylorville Reservoir, Iowa. The submodel describes the physical, chemical, and biological processes and predicts unsteady vertical and longitudinal distributions of a toxic chemical. The simulation results from the enhanced 2D reservoir model were validated by measured temperatures and atrazine concentrations in the reservoir. Although a strong thermal stratification was not identified from both observed and predicted water temperatures, the spatial variation of atrazine concentrations was largely affected by seasonal flow circulation patterns in the reservoir. In particular, the results showed the effect of flow circulation on spatial distribution of atrazine during summer months as the river flow formed an underflow within the reservoir and resulted in greater concentrations near the surface of the reservoir. Atrazine concentrations in the reservoir peaked around the end of May and early June. A good agreement between predicted and observed times and magnitudes of peak concentrations was obtained. The use of time-variable decay rates of atrazine led to more accurate prediction of atrazine concentrations, while the use of a constant half-life (60 days) over the entire period resulted in a 40% overestimation of peak concentrations. The results provide a better understanding of the fate and transport of atrazine in the reservoir and information useful in the development of reservoir operation strategies with respect to timing, amount, and depth of withdrawal.

The effect of hydrodynamic flow regimes on the algal bloom in a monomictic reservoir.

The effectiveness of a proposed curtain weir to be installed in the transitional zone of a eutrophic reservoir located in monsoon areas on the control of algal blooms in the lacustrine zone where drinking water withdrawals occur was assessed with various hydrodynamic flow regimes. A two-dimensional hydrodynamic and eutrophication model that can accommodate vertical displacement of the weir following the water surface changes was developed and validated using field data obtained from two distinctive hydrological years; drought (2001) and wet (2004). The model adequately reproduced the temporal and spatial variations of temperature, nutrients and phytoplankton concentrations in the reservoir. The efficacy of the curtain weir method found to be diverse for different hydrological conditions and dependent on the inflow densimetric Froude number (Fr(i)). Algal blooming was considerably mitigated by curtailing the transport of nutrients and algae from riverine zone to lacustrine epilimnion zone during the drought year as long as Fr(i) < 1.0. However, some flood events with Fr(i) > 1.0 transported nutrients and algae built upstream of the weir into the downstream euphotic zone by strong entrainments in 2004. Numerical experiments revealed that the efficiency of the weir on the control of algal blooming becomes marginal if the Fr(i) > 3.0.

Airways are more reactive to histamine than to methacholine in patients with mild airway hyperresponsiveness, regardless of atopy.

BACKGROUND: The airway muscles from allergen-sensitized animals in vitro show a heightened response to histamine, but not to carbachol. This study investigated whether the airway responsiveness to histamine in vivo is comparable to that of methacholine in human subjects with varying degrees of atopy. METHODS: One-hundred-and-sixty-eight consecutive adult asthma patients or volunteers underwent bronchoprovocation tests to both histamine and methacholine after determining their blood eosinophil counts, serum total IgE levels and skin test reactivity to 10 common aeroallergens. RESULTS: The responsiveness to histamine was significantly related to that to methacholine (r=0.609, p<0.001), but many individuals with a negative methacholine test response showed a positive response to histamine. The histamine-bronchial reactivity index (BRindex) was significantly higher than the methacholine-BRindex in subjects with a positive response to none (n=69, p<0.01) or only one (n=42, p<0.001) of histamine and methacholine, while there was no significant difference in the subjects with positive responses to both of them (n=57). The histamine-BRindex was significantly higher than the methacholine-BRindex in the subjects with mild histamine hyperresponsiveness (n=58, 1.28+/-0.01 vs. 1.20+/-0.02, respectively, p<0.001). Both histamine and methacholine responsiveness was significantly related to the atopy markers. However, the histamine-BRindex/methacholine-BRindex ratio of the atopics was not significantly different from that of the non-atopics. CONCLUSIONS: The airway responsiveness to histamine is comparable to that of methacholine in the subjects with positive responses to both histamine and methacholine, but the airway responsiveness to histamine is greater than that to methacholine in those subjects with mild airway hyperresponsiveness, regardless of atopy.

Water quality of runoff from agricultural-forestry watersheds in the Geum River Basin, Korea.

Forestry and agricultural land uses constitute 85% of Korea and these land uses are typically mixed in many watersheds. Land cover is one of the most important factors affecting diffuse pollution and water quality. The aim of this study is to estimate the pollutant concentrations in runoff from four study watersheds consisting of a mix of forestry and agricultural land uses at different ratios in the Geum River Basin. The effect of topographical variables was also considered. The ratio of agricultural land use to the total area of study watersheds was in the range of 0.01-0.36. Flow rate and water quality (suspended solids, organics and nutrients) of runoff from 40 rainfall events were monitored at the study watersheds. Descriptive statistics showed higher nutrients and organic concentrations in runoff from watershed with higher agricultural activities. Event Mean Concentration (EMC) of individual runoff event was calculated for each water quality constituent based on the flow rate and concentration data of runoff discharge, and arranged on a cumulative probability scale according to runoff occurrence. From the correlation analysis between EMC data and affecting variables, the ratio of agricultural land use to the total area was identified as the parameter that most affected the magnitude of EMC.

Effects of anti-asthma therapy on dyspnea perception in acute asthma patients.

Blunted perception of dyspnea may predispose patients to fatal asthma attacks. To examine whether this impaired perception of dyspnea in patients with acute asthma could be corrected by anti-asthma therapy, the medical records of 104 consecutive asthma patients who had been hospitalized as a result of asthma attacks were analyzed retrospectively. During the course of treatment with conventional asthma medications, the forced expiratory volume in 1s (FEV1) and the Borg scale-based dyspnea perception scores during breathing through an inspiratory muscle trainer were measured at least twice. The baseline Borg score measured just before discharge was significantly lower than from that measured initially, regardless of improvement in FEV1. In contrast, the Borg score at the highest resistance (HR; 3.12+/-0.26 vs. 5.03+/-0.53; P<0.01) and the HR-induced DeltaBorg score (1.68+/-0.20 vs. 4.47+/-0.54, P<0.001) were increased significantly in the Poor Perceivers (Borg score 5 at HR and HR-induced DeltaBorg score 3). Patient age (r=0.363, P<0.001), blood eosinophil counts (r=-0.285, P<0.01), and serum total IgE levels (r=-0.213, P<0.05), but not FEV1, were significantly related to the effect of the treatment on the HR-induced DeltaBorg scores. These findings suggest that anti-asthma treatments decrease dyspnea even without a concomitant improvement in lung function and correct the impaired perception of inspiratory resistive load in acute asthma, and that age and allergy influence the effect of treatment on impaired perception.

Airway hyperresponsiveness to hypertonic saline as a predictive index of exercise-induced bronchoconstriction.

BACKGROUND: Changes in airway mucosal osmolarity are an underlying mechanism of bronchoconstrictive responses to exercise and hypertonic saline (HS). The purpose of this study was to examine whether an osmotic challenge test using HS can predict exercise-induced bronchospasm (EIB) in asthma patients. METHODS: Thirty-six young male asthmatic patients underwent bronchial challenge tests based on 4.5% HS, exercise (> 24h later), and methacholine (MCh) at the Chonnam National University Hospital. The relationships between responses to HS and exercise, and between MCh and exercise were evaluated. RESULTS: The maximal fall in forced expiratory volume in one second following exercise was significantly higher in the HS-responders (n=19) than in the HS-nonresponders (n=17, 35.9 +/- 4.1% vs. 17.9 +/- 2.7%, p<0.001), and there was a significant correlation between the severity of EIB and HS-airway hyperresponsiveness (AHR). When compared with the MCh-AHR test in terms of predicting EIB, the HS-AHR test showed higher specificity (71.4% vs. 42.90%), but a lower sensitivity (58.6% vs. 89.7%) and negative predictive value (29.4% vs. 50.0%). At the moderate AHR cutoff value, the MCh-AHR test had a specificity that was comparable with and predictive values that were higher than those of the HS-AHR test. CONCLUSIONS: The HS-AHR test was more specific than the MCh-AHR test, but was less sensitive and had a poorer negative predictive value, which in combination preclude the use of the HS-AHR test as a screening tool for EIB. The MCh-AHR test had a cutoff value for moderate AHR that may be more useful for predicting EIB in asthmatic patients.

Increased releasability of skin mast cells after exercise in patients with exercise-induced asthma.

The role of lung mast cells in exercise-induced asthma (EIA) is controversial. To investigate whether the skin mast cell releasability is increased after exercise in EIA, 49 young atopic men with or without asthma took part in a free-running test for 6 min and were given skin prick tests using morphine, a mast cell secretagogue, before and after the exercise. The mean diameters of the wheal induced by morphine in patients with EIA were not significantly different from those in patients without EIA before exercise, although the baseline lung function was significantly lower and the airway hyperresponsiveness, the peripheral blood eosinophil count, and the size of the wheal in response to Dermatophagoides pteronyssinus were significantly higher in patients with EIA. However, the differences of the morphine-induced wheal diameter between patients with EIA and those without EIA became significant at 120 min after exercise (p<0.05), while the responses to histamine were not significantly different. These results suggest that exercise increases the releasability of skin mast cells in EIA patients whose asthma/allergy are relatively severe.

Late local urticaria as a long-term sequela of allergen-specific immunotherapy.

Local reaction to allergen-specific immunotherapy (SIT) usually appears within 30 minutes, but cases with exercise-induced urticaria at the SIT site 2-3 weeks after the last allergen injection have been reported. A 28-year-old man was treated with house dust mite-SIT for 5 years, due to asthma when he was an 11-year-old boy. On a treadmill exercise test for 50 minutes, erythema, swelling, and pruritus occurred at the SIT site, which lasted for one hour. There was no evidence of complement activation, and the skin biopsy specimens showed no apparent difference between the lesion and normal sites in the distribution of inflammatory cells and in mast cell degranulation. However, the morphine, but not the histamine, skin test responses were increased after the exercise. There must be a remaining long-term sequela of the SIT, including an increased releasability of mast cells, even after more than 10 years.

A two-dimensional model for simulating the transport and fate of toxic chemicals in a stratified reservoir.

A two-dimensional reservoir toxics model is essential to establishing effective water resources management and protection. In a reservoir, the fate of a toxic chemical is closely connected with flow regimes and circulation patterns. To better understand the kinetic processes and persistence and predict the dissipation of toxic contaminants in the reservoir during a spill or storm runoff event, a toxics submodel was developed and incorporated into an existing laterally integrated hydrodynamics and transport model. The toxics submodel describes the physical, chemical, and biological processes and predicts unsteady vertical and longitudinal distributions of a toxic chemical. The two-dimensional toxicant simulation model was applied to Shasta Reservoir in California to simulate the physico-chemical processes and fate of a volatile toxic compound, methyl isothiocyanate (MITC), during a chemical spill into the Sacramento River in 1991. The predicted MITC concentrations were compared with those observed. The effect of reservoir flow regimes on the transport and fate of the toxic substance was investigated. The results suggested that the persistence of MITC is significantly influenced by different flow regimes. Methyl isothiocyanate is more persistent in the reservoir under an interflow condition due to reduced volatilization from deep layers than under an overflow condition. In the overflow situation, the plume moved more slowly toward the dam and experienced greater dissipation. This analysis can assist in toxic spill control and reservoir management, including field sampling and closure of water intakes.