To what extent can we predict variation of bryophyte and tracheophyte community composition at fine spatial scale along an elevation gradient?

Mounting evidence points to the need for high-resolution climatic data in biodiversity analyses under global change. As we move to finer resolution, other factors than climate, including other abiotic variables and biotic interactions play, however, an increasing role, raising the question of our ability to predict community composition at fine scales. Focusing on two lineages of land plants, bryophytes and tracheophytes, we determine the relative contribution of climatic, non-climatic environmental drivers, spatial effects, community architecture and composition of one lineage to predict community composition of the other lineage, and how our ability to predict community composition varies along an elevation gradient. The relationship between community composition of one lineage and 68 environmental variables at 2-25 m spatial resolution, architecture and composition of the other lineage, and spatial factors, was investigated by hierarchical and variance partitioning across 413 2x2m plots in the Swiss Alps. Climatic data, although significant, contributed less to the model than any other variable considered. Community composition of one lineage, reflecting both direct interactions and unmeasured (hidden) abiotic factors, was the best predictor of community composition of the other lineage. Total explained variance substantially varied with elevation, underlining the fact that the strength of the species composition-environment relationship varies depending on environmental conditions. Total variance explained increased towards high elevation up to 50 %, with an increasing importance of spatial effects and vegetation architecture, pointing to increasing positive interactions and aggregated species distribution patterns in alpine environments. In tracheophytes, an increase of the contribution of non-climatic environmental factors was also observed at high elevation, in line with the hypothesis of a stronger environmental control under harsher conditions. Further improvements of our ability to predict changes in plant community composition may involve the implementation of historical variables and higher-resolution climatic data to better describe the microhabitat conditions actually experienced by organisms.

Disentangling climate change from air pollution effects on epiphytic bryophytes.

At the interface between atmosphere and vegetation, epiphytic floras have been largely used as indicators of air quality. The recovery of epiphytes from high levels of SO2 pollution has resulted in major range changes, whose interpretation has, however, been challenged by concomitant variation in other pollutants as well as climate change. Here, we combine historical and contemporary information on epiphytic bryophyte species distributions, climatic conditions, and pollution loads since the 1980s in southern Belgium to disentangle the relative impact of climate change and air pollution on temporal shifts in species composition. The relationship between the temporal variation of species composition, climatic conditions, SO2 , NO2 , O3 , and fine particle concentrations, was analyzed by variation partitioning. The temporal shift in species composition was such, that it was, on average, more than twice larger than the change in species composition observed today among communities scattered across the study area. The main driver, contributing to 38% of this temporal shift in species composition, was the variation of air quality. Climate change alone did not contribute to the substantial compositional shifts in epiphytic bryophyte communities in the course of the last 40 years. As a consequence of the substantial drop of N and S loads over the last decades, present-day variations of epiphytic floras were, however, better explained by the spatial variation of climatic conditions than by extant pollution loads. The lack of any signature of recolonization delays of formerly polluted areas in the composition of modern floras suggests that epiphytic bryophytes efficiently disperse at the landscape scale. We suggest that a monitoring of epiphyte communities at 10-year intervals would be desirable to assess the impact of raising pollution sources, and especially pesticides, whose impact on bryophytes remains poorly documented.