ABSTRACT
BACKGROUND: Early recognition of high-risk patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) may improve outcomes. Although many predictive scoring systems exist, their complexity may limit utility in COVID-19. We assessed the prognostic performance of the National Early Warning Score (NEWS) and an age-based modification (NEWS+age) among hospitalized COVID-19 patients enrolled in a prospective, multicenter US Military Health System (MHS) observational cohort study. METHODS: Hospitalized adults with confirmed COVID-19 not requiring invasive mechanical ventilation at admission and with a baseline NEWS were included. We analyzed each scoring system's ability to predict key clinical outcomes, including progression to invasive ventilation or death, stratified by baseline severity (low [0-3], medium [4-6], and high [≥7]). RESULTS: Among 184 included participants, those with low baseline NEWS had significantly shorter hospitalizations (Pâ <â .01) and lower maximum illness severity (Pâ <â .001). Most (80.2%) of low NEWS vs 15.8% of high NEWS participants required no or at most low-flow oxygen supplementation. Low NEWS (≤3) had a negative predictive value of 97.2% for progression to invasive ventilation or death; a high NEWS (≥7) had high specificity (93.1%) but low positive predictive value (42.1%) for such progression. NEWS+age performed similarly to NEWS at predicting invasive ventilation or death (NEWS+age: area under the receiver operating characteristics curve [AUROC], 0.69; 95% CI, 0.65-0.73; NEWS: AUROC, 0.70; 95% CI, 0.66-0.75). CONCLUSIONS: NEWS and NEWS+age showed similar test characteristics in an MHS COVID-19 cohort. Notably, low baseline scores had an excellent negative predictive value. Given their easy applicability, these scoring systems may be useful in resource-limited settings to identify COVID-19 patients who are unlikely to progress to critical illness.
ABSTRACT
A documented side-effect of artemisinin therapy is post-artemisinin delayed hemolysis (PADH), primarily occurring after parenteral treatment for severe P. falciparum infections. PADH has been infrequently reported after oral therapy and is rarely severe enough to require hospitalization and blood transfusions. A 24 year old man was diagnosed with P. falciparum, prompting initiation of oral artemether-lumefantrine (AL). Further work-up demonstrated that he met WHO criteria for severe malaria infection on the basis of high parasitemia and his regimen was switched to intravenous quinidine and oral doxycycline. He was transitioned back to AL after 4 days and was discharged on hospital day six. Five days later, he was readmitted for hemolytic anemia. His peripheral blood was absent of malaria parasites and he was diagnosed with PADH, ultimately requiring multiple blood transfusions. Severe hemolytic anemia requiring blood transfusions after oral artemisinin therapy is rare and may be associated with higher parasite loads. This case demonstrates the importance of close reassessment and consideration of PADH in patients treated with oral therapies, particularly in the setting of severe malarial infections.
