Mapping coexisting hotspots of multidimensional food market (in)accessibility and climate vulnerability.

With the increasing likelihood of agricultural production failures under a warmer global climate, the importance of markets in providing access to nutrient-dense foods (NDFs) through trade is predicted to grow. However, regions with relatively poor access to markets and supporting infrastructures (e.g. roads and storage facilities) are potentially ill-equipped to deal with both short-term hydrometeorological hazards such as droughts and floods, and longer-term shifts in agricultural productivity. Despite the increasing focus upon markets within academic and policymaking circles, a regional-scale assessment of these potentially coexisting hotspots of vulnerability has not been conducted. We conduct a two-stage geospatial analysis integrating three publicly available datasets across the Indian states of Bihar, Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand, and Odisha. Combining the 2011 national census with the new PMGSY-GeoSadak database, we conduct nearest neighbour analysis to measure multidimensional market inaccessibility by: (i) distance from a settlement to its nearest village, town or city with a market, (ii) distance from a settlement to its nearest major road, and (iii) distance from a settlement to its subdistrict headquarters. We then correlate these measures with India's only district-wise assessment of climate vulnerability to identify hotspots of market inaccessibility and climate hazards. We find that the three market access measures are spatially autocorrelated and positively interrelated at the settlement (n = 129 555) and district (n = 107) levels, meaning that settlements located further from their nearest market tend to experience poorer road connectivity and access to the subdistrict economic hub. Approximately 18.5-million people live in districts with relatively high climate vulnerability and relatively high and multidimensional market inaccessibility. Hotspots of coexisting vulnerabilities are also disproportionately populated by 'Schedule Castes and Schedule Tribes' (SC/ST) communities. The identification of coexisting hotspots has important implications for the development of equitable and resilient markets that bolster NDF access for climate vulnerable and nutritionally insecure populations.

Investigating market-based opportunities for the provision of nutritious and safe diets to prevent childhood stunting: a UKRI-GCRF action against stunting hub protocol paper.

BACKGROUND: Inadequate access to affordable, safe, desirable and convenient nutrient-dense food is one of the underlying causes of child stunting. While targeted nutrition-sensitive interventions (eg, backyard 'nutri-gardens') may increase dietary diversity within farming households, such interventions have limited scalability across the wider food system where markets remain underdeveloped. This research aims to develop and assess market-based interventions for key nutrient-dense foods to help improve the diets of women and children in the first 1000 days of life. METHODS: Data collection uses four parallel approaches in each of the three study countries (India, Indonesia and Senegal). (1) A novel food environment tool will be developed to characterise the accessibility and affordability of nutrient-dense foods in the study countries. The tool will be validated through pretesting using cognitive interviewing and piloting in purposively sampled households, 10 (cognitive interviewing) and 30 (piloting) households in each country; (2) stakeholder interviews (eg, with producers, intermediaries and retailers) will be conducted to map out nutrition-sensitive entry points of key value chains (eg, animal-sourced foods), before hotspots of potential food safety hazards will be identified from food samples collected along the chains; (3) the Optifood and Agrifood tools will be used to identify foods that can address food system nutrient gaps and engage key stakeholders to prioritise market interventions to improve nutrition outcomes. Optifood and Agrifood parameters will be informed by publicly available data, plus interviews and focus groups with value chain stakeholders; (4) informed by the previous three approaches and a campaign of participatory 'group model building', a novel system dynamics model will evaluate the impact of alternative market-based solutions on the availability and affordability of nutrient-dense foods over time. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: The study has received ethical approval in the United Kingdom, Senegal, Indonesia and India. Dissemination comprises peer-reviewed journals, international disciplinary conferences and multistakeholder dissemination workshops.

Identifying value chain trade-offs from fruit and vegetable aggregation services in Bangladesh using a system dynamics approach.

Significant progress has been made in cereal production in Bangladesh due to an agricultural policy environment that prioritizes the productivity of staple crops over fruit and vegetables (F&V). However, many smallholder farmers remain poorly connected to markets, which may lead to a limited supply response of F&V that can reduce opportunities for sufficient intake in neglected, consumer-facing, smaller retail markets. To address this issue, aggregation schemes have been conceived that collect and transport F&Vs on behalf of multiple farmers. Given the volume of horticultural produce produced and the reliance on developed transport infrastructure, aggregation schemes tend to supply wholesale and urban markets rather than underdeveloped rural and isolated markets. To this end, we investigated how a particular aggregation intervention ('Loop') could potentially improve the distribution of F&V to smaller markets whilst improving farmer benefits. We used an innovative system dynamics modeling approach based on Loop`s aggregation services in Jashore, Bangladesh, and to identify the potential trade-offs between consumer outcomes in retail markets and farmer benefits. We find that combining aggregation with a quota at the smaller market, transport subsidy, and current price growth does not result in trade-offs between consumer purchases and farmers`benefits. However, combining aggregation with current price growth can increase demand without losing farmers`benefits. The findings emphasize that standalone and multiple market-oriented interventions generate broader win-win benefits to promote inclusive food systems.