Predicting the risk of pancreatic cancer in women with new-onset diabetes mellitus.

BACKGROUND AND AIM: People with new-onset diabetes mellitus (diabetes) could be a possible target population for pancreatic cancer surveillance. However, distinguishing diabetes caused by pancreatic cancer from type 2 diabetes remains challenging. We aimed to develop and validate a model to predict pancreatic cancer among women with new-onset diabetes. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective cohort study among Australian women newly diagnosed with diabetes, using first prescription of anti-diabetic medications, sourced from administrative data, as a surrogate for the diagnosis of diabetes. The outcome was a diagnosis of pancreatic cancer within 3 years of diabetes diagnosis. We used prescription medications, severity of diabetes (i.e., change/addition of medication within 2 months after first medication), and age at diabetes diagnosis as potential predictors of pancreatic cancer. RESULTS: Among 99 687 women aged ≥ 50 years with new-onset diabetes, 602 (0.6%) were diagnosed with pancreatic cancer within 3 years. The area under the receiver operating curve for the risk prediction model was 0.73. Age and diabetes severity were the two most influential predictors followed by beta-blockers, acid disorder drugs, and lipid-modifying agents. Using a risk threshold of 50%, sensitivity and specificity were 69% and the positive predictive value (PPV) was 1.3%. CONCLUSIONS: Our model doubled the PPV of pancreatic cancer in women with new-onset diabetes from 0.6% to 1.3%. Age and rapid progression of diabetes were important risk factors, and pancreatic cancer occurred more commonly in women without typical risk factors for type 2 diabetes. This model could prove valuable as an initial screening tool, especially as new biomarkers emerge.

Association between unstable diabetes mellitus and risk of pancreatic cancer.

BACKGROUND: Deterioration of glycaemic control in people with long-standing diabetes mellitus (diabetes) may be a possible indicator of pancreatic cancer. However, the magnitude of the association between diabetes deterioration and pancreatic cancer has received little attention. METHODS: We conducted a matched cohort study, nested within a population-based cohort of Australian women with diabetes. Women with unstable diabetes, defined as a change in medication after a 2-year period of stable medication use, were matched by birth year to those with stable diabetes, in a 1:4 ratio. We used flexible parametric survival models to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CI). RESULTS: We included 134,954 and 539,789 women in the unstable and stable diabetes cohorts, respectively (mean age 68 years). In total, 1,315 pancreatic cancers were diagnosed. Deterioration of stable diabetes was associated with a 2.5-fold increased risk of pancreatic cancer (HR 2.55; 95% CI 2.29-2.85). The risk was particularly high within the first year after diabetes deteriorated. HRs at 3 months, 6 months and 1 year were: 5.76 (95% CI 4.72-7.04); 4.56 (95% CI 3.81-5.46); and 3.33 (95% CI 2.86-3.89), respectively. The risk was no longer significantly different after 7 years. CONCLUSIONS: Deterioration in glycaemic control in people with previously stable diabetes may be an indicator of pancreatic cancer, suggesting investigations of the pancreas may be appropriate. The weaker longer-term (3-7 years) association between diabetes deterioration and pancreatic cancer may indicate that poor glycaemic control can be a risk factor for pancreatic cancer.

Association between antihypertensive medicine use and risk of ovarian cancer in women aged 50 years and older.

BACKGROUND: Epithelial ovarian cancer (EOC) has few modifiable risk factors. There is evidence that some antihypertensive medicines may have cancer preventive and/or therapeutic actions; therefore, we assessed the associations between use of different antihypertensive medicines and risk of specific EOC histotypes. METHODS: Our nested case-control study of linked administrative health data included 6070 Australian women aged over 50 years diagnosed with EOC from 2004 to 2013, and 30,337 matched controls. We used multivariable conditional logistic regression to estimate odds ratios (ORs) and 95 % confidence intervals (CIs) for the association between ever use of each antihypertensive medicine group, including beta-adrenergic blockers, angiotensin converting enzyme inhibitors, angiotensin II receptor blockers, calcium channel blockers, diuretics, and alpha blockers, and the risk of EOC overall and separately for the serous, endometrioid, mucinous, clear cell and other histotypes. RESULTS: We found that most antihypertensive medicines were not associated with risk of EOC. However, women who used calcium channel blockers had a reduced risk of serous EOC (OR= 0.89, 95 % CI:0.81,0.98) and use of combination thiazide and potassium-sparing diuretics was associated with an increased risk of endometroid EOC (OR= 2.09, 95 % CI:1.15,3.82). CONCLUSION: Our results provide little support for a chemo-preventive role for most antihypertensives, however, the histotype-specific associations we found warrant further investigation.

Validation of a tool for determining the clinical utility of stillbirth investigations.

BACKGROUND: Up to 20% of all stillbirths and 45% of term stillbirths are currently classified as unexplained. Many of these stillbirths do not undergo currently recommended investigations. This may leave questions unanswered and not identify stillbirths with a recurrence risk in subsequent pregnancies. AIMS: To validate a new tool (Stillbirth Investigation Utility Tool) to identify the clinical utility of investigations in stillbirth and the inter-rater agreement on cause of stillbirth using the Perinatal Society of Australia and New Zealand-Perinatal Death Classification (PSANZ-PDC). MATERIALS AND METHODS: Thirty-four stillbirths were randomly selected for inclusion, each assessed independently by five blinded assessors. The investigations were grouped into three categories: clinical and laboratory; placental pathology; and autopsy examination. The cause of death was assigned at the end of each group. Outcome measures were clinical utility of investigations measured by assessor rated usefulness and inter-rater agreement on the assigned cause of death. RESULTS: Comprehensive maternal history, maternal full blood count, maternal blood group and screen and placenta histopathology were useful in all cases. Clinical photographs were not performed and should have been performed in 50% of cases. The inter-rater agreement on cause of death assigned after all investigation results was 0.93 (95% CI 0.87-1.0). CONCLUSIONS: The new Stillbirth Investigation Utility Tool showed very good agreement in assigning the cause of death using PSANZ-PDC. Four investigations were useful in all cases. Minor refinements will be made based on feedback to enhance usability for wider implementation in research studies to assess the yield of investigations in stillbirths.

My Baby's Movements: An assessment of the effectiveness of the My Baby's Movements phone program in reducing late-gestation stillbirth rates.

BACKGROUND: Delayed reporting of decreased fetal movements (DFM) could represent a missed opportunity to prevent stillbirth. Mobile phone applications (apps) have the potential to improve maternal awareness and reporting of DFM and contribute to stillbirth prevention. AIMS: To evaluate the effectiveness of the My Baby's Movements (MBM) app on late-gestation stillbirth rates. MATERIALS AND METHODS: The MBM trial evaluated a multifaceted fetal movements awareness package across 26 maternity services in Australia and New Zealand between 2016 and 2019. In this secondary analysis, generalised linear mixed models were used to compare rates of late-gestation stillbirth, obstetric interventions, and neonatal outcomes between app users and non-app users including calendar time, cluster, primiparity and other potential confounders as fixed effects, and hospital as a random effect. RESULTS: Of 140 052 women included, app users comprised 9.8% (n = 13 780). The stillbirth rate was not significantly lower among app users (1.67/1000 vs 2.29/1000) (adjusted odds ratio (aOR) 0.79; 95% CI 0.51-1.23). App users were less likely to have a preterm birth (aOR 0.81; 0.75-0.88) or a composite adverse neonatal outcome (aOR 0.87; 0.81-0.93); however, they had higher rates of induction of labour (IOL) (aOR 1.27; 1.22-1.32) and early term birth (aOR 1.08; 1.04-1.12). CONCLUSIONS: The MBM app had low uptake and its use was not associated with stillbirth rates but was associated with some neonatal benefit, and higher rates of IOL and early term birth. Use and acceptability of tools designed to promote fetal movement awareness is an important knowledge gap. The implications of increased IOL and early term births warrant consideration in future studies.

Perioperative Beta-Blocker Supply and Survival in Women With Epithelial Ovarian Cancer and a History of Cardiovascular Conditions.

PURPOSE: Surgery for epithelial ovarian cancer (EOC) may activate stress-inflammatory responses that stimulate tumor growth and increase metastatic growth. Animal and in vitro studies have shown that inhibition of the catecholamine-induced inflammatory response via beta-adrenergic receptor blockade has antitumor potential in EOC. However, observational studies have reported mixed results. We assessed whether beta-blocker (BB) use at the time of primary ovarian cancer surgery was associated with improved survival in a large population-based study. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Using linked administrative data, a population-based cohort of 3,844 Australian women age 50 years or older with a history of cardiovascular conditions who underwent surgery for EOC was followed for survival outcomes. The average treatment effect of selective BB (SBB) and nonselective BB (NSBB) supply at the time of surgery on survival was estimated from a causal inference perspective using covariate-balanced inverse probability of treatment weights with flexible parametric survival models that allowed for time-varying survival effects. RESULTS: Around the time of surgery, 560 (14.5%) women were supplied a SBB and 67 (1.7%) were supplied a NSBB. At 2 years postsurgery, the survival proportion was 80% (95% CI, 68 to 88) for women dispensed NSBBs at surgery compared with 69% (95% CI, 67 to 70) for women not supplied NSBBs. The survival advantage appeared to extend to at least 8 years postsurgery. No association was observed for women dispensed a SBB around the time of surgery. CONCLUSION: Perioperative supply of NSBBs appeared to confer a survival advantage for women age over 50 years with a history of cardiovascular conditions. Long-term clinical trials are required to confirm these findings.

The association between diabetes mellitus of different durations and risk of pancreatic cancer: an Australian national data-linkage study in women.

AIMS: The bidirectional association between diabetes mellitus (DM) and pancreatic cancer (PC) is established; however, the strength of association between duration of DM and risk of PC needs further investigation. METHODS: We conducted a case-control study nested within a population-based cohort of Australian women established using record linkage. Women diagnosed with PC from July 2007 to December 2013, were matched to five controls based on age and state of residence. DM was defined according to prescription of anti-diabetic medication from administrative prescription data. We used conditional logistic regression to calculate odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI), adjusted for area-level socioeconomic status, rurality of residence, weighted comorbidity score, and predicted probability of obesity. RESULTS: The analyses included 7,267 cases and 35,978 controls. The mean age at the time of DM diagnosis was 71 years whereas the mean age at the time of diagnosis of PC was 76 years. A history of DM of any duration was associated with a 2-fold increase in risk of PC (OR=2.12; 95%CI:1.96-2.29) compared to having no history of DM. The risk decreased with increasing duration of DM. The highest risk was in those who had recent-onset DM (OR=8.08; 95%CI:6.88-9.50 for <12 months of DM), but the risk remained elevated with ≥5 years of DM (OR=1.40; 95%CI:1.27-1.55). CONCLUSION: The markedly increased risk of PC in those with recent-onset DM emphasises the need for further research to distinguish patients for whom new-onset DM is a manifestation of PC from those with type-2 DM. The elevated risk associated with long-standing DM suggests that preventing DM may contribute to a reduction in the incidence of PC.

Nitrogen-based Bisphosphonate Use and Ovarian Cancer Risk in Women Aged 50 Years and Older.

BACKGROUND: There are few readily modifiable risk factors for epithelial ovarian cancer; preclinical studies suggest bisphosphonates could have chemopreventive actions. Our study aimed to assess the association between use of nitrogen-based bisphosphonate medicine and risk of epithelial ovarian cancer, overall and by histotype. METHODS: We conducted a case-control study nested within a large, linked administrative dataset including all Australian women enrolled for Medicare, Australia's universal health insurance scheme, between July 2002 and December 2013. We included all women with epithelial ovarian cancer diagnosed at age 50 years and older between July 1, 2004, and December 31, 2013 (n = 9367) and randomly selected up to 5 controls per case, individually matched to cases by age, state of residence, area-level socioeconomic status, and remoteness of residence category (n = 46 830). We used prescription records to ascertain use of nitrogen-based bisphosphonates (ever use and duration of use), raloxifene, and other osteoporosis medicines (no nitrogen-based bisphosphonates, strontium and denosumab). We calculated adjusted odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) using conditional logistic regression. RESULTS: Ever use of nitrogen-based bisphosphonates was associated with a reduced risk of epithelial ovarian cancer compared with no use (OR = 0.81, 95% CI = 0.75 to 0.88). There was a reduced risk of endometrioid (OR = 0.51, 95% CI = 0.33 to 0.79) and serous histotypes (OR = 0.84, 95% CI = 0.75 to 0.93) but no association with the mucinous or clear cell histotypes. CONCLUSION: Use of nitrogen-based bisphosphonates was associated with a reduced risk of endometrioid and serous ovarian cancer. This suggests the potential for use for prevention, although validation of our findings is required.

Prospective cohort study: Causes of stillbirth in Australia 2013-2018.

BACKGROUND: Stillbirth is a major public health problem that is slow to improve in Australia. Understanding the causes of stillbirth through appropriate investigation is the cornerstone of prevention and important for parents to understand why their baby died. AIM: The aim of this study is to assess compliance with the Perinatal Society of Australia and New Zealand (PSANZ) Perinatal Mortality Clinical Practice Guidelines (2009) for stillbirths. METHODS: This is a prospective multi-centred cohort study of stillbirths at participating hospitals (2013-2018). Data were recorded into a purpose-built database. The frequency of the recommended core investigations was calculated, and χ2 test was performed for subgroup analyses by gestational age groups and timing of fetal death. A 70% compliance threshold was defined for investigations. The cause of death categories was provided according to PSANZ Perinatal Death Classification. RESULTS: Among 697 reported total stillbirths, 562 (81%) were antepartum, and 101 (15%) were intrapartum. The most common cause of death categories were 'congenital abnormality' (12.5%), 'specific perinatal conditions' (12.2%) and 'unexplained antepartum death' (29%). According to 2009 guidelines, there were no stillbirths where all recommended investigations were performed (including or excluding autopsy). A compliance of 70% was observed for comprehensive history (82%), full blood count (94%), cytomegalovirus (71%), toxoplasmosis (70%), renal function (75%), liver function (79%), external examination (86%), post-mortem examination (84%) and placental histopathology (92%). The overall autopsy rate was 52%. CONCLUSIONS: Compliance with recommended investigations for stillbirth was suboptimal, and many stillbirths remain unexplained. Education on the value of investigations for stillbirth is needed. Future studies should focus on understanding the yield and value of investigations and service delivery gaps that impact compliance.

Evaluation of Pregnancy Outcomes Among Women With Decreased Fetal Movements.

Importance: Stillbirth is a devastating pregnancy outcome with far-reaching economic and psychosocial consequences, but despite significant investment, a screening tool for identifying those fetuses at risk for stillbirth remains elusive. Maternal reporting of decreased fetal movements (DFM) has been found to be associated with stillbirth and other adverse perinatal outcomes. Objective: To examine pregnancy outcomes of women presenting with DFM in the third trimester at a tertiary Australian center with a clear clinical management algorithm. Design, Setting, and Participants: This cohort study used data on all births meeting the inclusion criteria from 2009 through 2019 at Mater Mothers' Hospital in Brisbane, Australia. This is a tertiary center and Australia's largest maternity hospital. All singleton births without a known congenital anomaly after 28 weeks' gestation were included. Among 203 071 potential participants identified from the hospital database, 101 597 individuals met the eligibility criteria. Data analysis was performed from May through September 2020. Exposure: Presentation to hospital with DFM after 28 weeks gestation. Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary outcome of this study was the incidence of stillbirth. Multivariate analysis was undertaken to determine the association between DFM and stillbirth, obstetric intervention, and other adverse outcomes, including being born small for gestational age (SGA) and a composite adverse perinatal outcome (at least 1 of the following: neonatal intensive care unit admission, severe acidosis [ie, umbilical artery pH <7.0 or base excess -12.0 mmol/L or less], 5-minute Apgar score <4, or stillbirth or neonatal death). The hypothesis being tested was formulated prior to data collection. Results: Among 101 597 women with pregnancies that met the inclusion criteria, 8821 (8.7%) presented at least once with DFM and 92 776 women (91.3%) did not present with DFM (ie, the control population). Women presenting with DFM, compared with those presenting without DFM, were younger (mean [SD] age, 30.4 [5.4] years vs 31.5 [5.2] years; P < .001), more likely to be nulliparous (4845 women [54.9%] vs 42 210 women [45.5%]; P < .001) and have a previous stillbirth (189 women [2.1%] vs 1156 women [1.2%]; P < .001), and less likely to have a previous cesarean delivery (1199 women [13.6%] vs 17 444 women [18.8%]; P < .001). During the study period, the stillbirth rate was 2.0 per 1000 births after 28 weeks' gestation. Presenting with DFM was not associated with higher odds of stillbirth (9 women [0.1%] vs 185 women [0.2%]; adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 0.54; 95% CI, 0.23-1.26, P = .16). However, presenting with DFM was associated with higher odds of a fetus being born SGA (aOR, 1.14; 95% CI, 1.03-1.27; P = .01) and the composite adverse perinatal outcome (aOR, 1.14; 95% CI, 1.02-1.27; P = .02). Presenting with DFM was also associated with higher odds of planned early term birth (aOR, 1.26; 95% CI, 1.15-1.38; P < .001), induction of labor (aOR, 1.63; 95% CI, 1.53-1.74; P < .001), and emergency cesarean delivery (aOR, 1.18; 95% CI, 1.09-1.28; P < .001). Conclusions and Relevance: The presence of DFM is a marker associated with increased risk for a fetus. This study's findings of a nonsignificantly lower rate of stillbirth among women with DFM may be reflective of increased community awareness of timely presentation to their obstetric care clinician when concerned about fetal movements and the benefits of tertiary level care guided by a clear clinical management protocol. However, DFM was associated with increased odds of an infant being born SGA, obstetric intervention, early term birth, and a composite of adverse perinatal outcomes.

Treatment and Outcomes for Central Nervous System Tumors in Australian Adolescents and Young Adults: A Population-Based National Study.

Purpose: While central nervous system (CNS) tumors account for only 10% of adolescent and young adult (AYA) cancers, they are the leading cause of cancer death in this age group. Using national data for Australia, we describe the presentation, treatment, and survival for AYAs diagnosed with CNS tumors. Methods: A population-based study of 15-24 year-olds diagnosed with CNS tumors (low- and high-grade glioma [LGG, HGG], medulloblastoma [MB], primitive neuroectodermal tumors [PNET], ependymoma [EP]) or other (e.g., low-grade neuronal tumor) between 2007 and 2012. Clinical details were extracted from hospital medical records for each patient. Treatment centers were classified as pediatric or adult services. Results: Two hundred seventy-five patients (129 LGG, 77 HGG, 23 MB, 10 PNET, 19 EP, 17 other) were identified, with 17% treated at pediatric hospitals. Symptoms (headache [53%], nausea [31%]) were present for a median of 3 weeks before consulting a health professional. Of LGG patients, 15% had radiotherapy (RT) and 12% chemotherapy (CT). Of HGG patients, 81% had RT and 75% CT. All MB and PNET were managed with surgery, and 74% of MB and 80% of PNET had both RT and CT. Treatment did not differ by treatment center type. Five-year survival for LGG and EP was over 80%, but was 42% for HGG and 20% for PNET. Conclusions: This national, population-based study indicates similar treatment for AYA patients with CNS tumors between pediatric and adult services. Poor outcomes for HGG and PNET patients highlight the need for clinical trials of novel approaches for these tumors.

Protocol for the development and validation of a risk prediction model for stillbirths from 35 weeks gestation in Australia.

BACKGROUND: Despite advances in the care of women and their babies in the past century, an estimated 1.7 million babies are born still each year throughout the world. A robust method to estimate a pregnant woman's individualized risk of late-pregnancy stillbirth is needed to inform decision-making around the timing of birth to reduce the risk of stillbirth from 35 weeks of gestation in Australia, a high-resource setting. METHODS: This is a protocol for a cross-sectional study of all late-pregnancy births in Australia (2005-2015) from 35 weeks of gestation including 5188 stillbirths among 3.1 million births at an estimated rate of 1.7 stillbirths per 1000 births. A multivariable logistic regression model will be developed in line with current Transparent Reporting of a multivariable prediction model for Individual Prognosis or Diagnosis (TRIPOD) guidelines to estimate the gestation-specific probability of stillbirth with prediction intervals. Candidate predictors were identified from systematic reviews and clinical consultation and will be described through univariable regression analysis. To generate a final model, elimination by backward stepwise multivariable logistic regression will be performed. The model will be internally validated using bootstrapping with 1000 repetitions and externally validated using a temporally unique dataset. Overall model performance will be assessed with R2, calibration, and discrimination. Calibration will be reported using a calibration plot with 95% confidence intervals (α = 0.05). Discrimination will be measured by the C-statistic and area underneath the receiver-operator curves. Clinical usefulness will be reported as positive and negative predictive values, and a decision curve analysis will be considered. DISCUSSION: A robust method to predict a pregnant woman's individualized risk of late-pregnancy stillbirth is needed to inform timely, appropriate care to reduce stillbirth. Among existing prediction models designed for obstetric use, few have been subject to internal and external validation and many fail to meet recommended reporting standards. In developing a risk prediction model for late-gestation stillbirth with both providers and pregnant women in mind, we endeavor to develop a validated model for clinical use in Australia that meets current reporting standards.

Stillbirth in Australia 1: The road to now: Two decades of stillbirth research and advocacy in Australia.

Stillbirth is a major public health problem with an enormous mortality burden and psychosocial impact on parents, families and the wider community both globally and in Australia. In 2015, Australia's late gestation stillbirth rate was over 30% higher than that of the best-performing countries globally, highlighting the urgent need for action. We present an overview of the foundations which led to the establishment of Australia's NHMRC Centre of Research Excellence in Stillbirth (Stillbirth CRE) in 2017 and highlight key activities in the following areas: Opportunities to expand and improve collaborations between research teams; Supporting the conduct and development of innovative, high quality, collaborative research that incorporates a strong parent voice; Promoting effective translation of research into health policy and/or practice; and the Regional and global work of the Stillbirth CRE. We highlight the first-ever Senate Inquiry into Stillbirth in Australia in 2018. These events ultimately led to the development of a National Stillbirth Action and Implementation Plan for Australia with the aims of reducing stillbirth rates by 20% over the next five years, reducing the disparity in stillbirth rates between advantaged and disadvantaged communities, and improving care for all families who experience this loss.

A Simple Clinical Tool for Stratifying Risk of Clinically Significant CKD after Nephrectomy: Development and Multinational Validation.

BACKGROUND: Clinically significant CKD following surgery for kidney cancer is associated with increased morbidity and mortality, but identifying patients at increased CKD risk remains difficult. Simple methods to stratify risk of clinically significant CKD after nephrectomy are needed. METHODS: To develop a tool for stratifying patients' risk of CKD arising after surgery for kidney cancer, we tested models in a population-based cohort of 699 patients with kidney cancer in Queensland, Australia (2012-2013). We validated these models in a population-based cohort of 423 patients from Victoria, Australia, and in patient cohorts from single centers in Queensland, Scotland, and England. Eligible patients had two functioning kidneys and a preoperative eGFR ≥60 ml/min per 1.73 m2. The main outcome was incident eGFR <45 ml/min per 1.73 m2 at 12 months postnephrectomy. We used prespecified predictors-age ≥65 years old, diabetes mellitus, preoperative eGFR, and nephrectomy type (partial/radical)-to fit logistic regression models and grouped patients according to degree of risk of clinically significant CKD (negligible, low, moderate, or high risk). RESULTS: Absolute risks of stage 3b or higher CKD were <2%, 3% to 14%, 21% to 26%, and 46% to 69% across the four strata of negligible, low, moderate, and high risk, respectively. The negative predictive value of the negligible risk category was 98.9% for clinically significant CKD. The c statistic for this score ranged from 0.84 to 0.88 across derivation and validation cohorts. CONCLUSIONS: Our simple scoring system can reproducibly stratify postnephrectomy CKD risk on the basis of readily available parameters. This clinical tool's quantitative assessment of CKD risk may be weighed against other considerations when planning management of kidney tumors and help inform shared decision making between clinicians and patients.

FDA Approval Summary: Pembrolizumab plus Lenvatinib for Endometrial Carcinoma, a Collaborative International Review under Project Orbis.

On September 17, 2019, FDA granted accelerated approval to pembrolizumab plus lenvatinib for the treatment of patients with advanced endometrial carcinoma that is not microsatellite instability-high (MSI-H) or mismatch repair deficient (dMMR) and who have disease progression following prior systemic therapy but are not candidates for curative surgery or radiation. The submission and review of this application was conducted through an FDA Oncology Center of Excellence initiative named Project Orbis whereby the FDA, the Australian Therapeutic Goods Administration, and Health Canada were able to simultaneously review and collaborate, rendering simultaneous approval decisions in all countries. Accelerated approval of the pembrolizumab plus lenvatinib combination was based on a single-arm trial of 94 patients, with previously treated metastatic endometrial cancer whose tumors were not MSI-H/dMMR. Efficacy was demonstrated on the basis of an objective response rate of 38.3% (95% confidence interval, 28.5%-48.9%) with 10 complete responses (10.6%) accompanied by supportive durations of response. Trials to confirm clinical benefit of this combination are ongoing. Here, we summarize the benefit-risk analysis supporting accelerated approval of the pembrolizumab plus lenvatinib combination and describe the methodology for the first Project Orbis review.

Tumor size and postoperative kidney function following radical nephrectomy.

Background: Chronic kidney disease (CKD) following nephrectomy for kidney tumors is common, and both patient and tumor characteristics may affect postoperative kidney function. Several studies have reported that surgery for large tumors is associated with a lower likelihood of postoperative CKD, but others have reported CKD to be more common before surgery in patients with large tumors. Objective: The aim of this study was to clarify inconsistencies in the literature regarding the prognostic significance of tumor size for postoperative kidney function. Study design and setting: We analyzed data from 944 kidney cancer patients managed with radical nephrectomy between January 2012 and December 2013, and 242 living kidney donors who underwent surgery between January 2011 and December 2014 in the Australian states of Queensland and Victoria. Multivariable logistic regression was used to assess the primary outcome of CKD upstaging. Structural equation modeling was used to evaluate causal models, to delineate the influence of patient and tumor characteristics on postoperative kidney function. Results: We determined that a significant interaction between age and tumor size (P=0.03) led to the observed inverse association between large tumor size and CKD upstaging, and was accentuated by other forms of selection bias. Subgrouping patients by age and tumor size demonstrated that all patients aged ≥65 years were at increased risk of CKD upstaging, regardless of tumor size. Risk of CKD upstaging was comparable between age-matched living donors and kidney cancer patients. Conclusion: Larger tumors are unlikely to confer a protective effect with respect to postoperative kidney function. The reason for the previously reported inconsistency is likely a combination of the analytical approach and selection bias.

Incident Chronic Kidney Disease After Radical Nephrectomy for Renal Cell Carcinoma.

BACKGROUND: Chronic kidney disease (CKD) after surgery for kidney cancer is common, and is associated with increased morbidity and mortality. This study aimed to identify factors associated with incident CKD in patients managed with radical nephrectomy. PATIENTS AND METHODS: All patients diagnosed with renal cell carcinoma between January 2012 and December 2013 were ascertained from state-based cancer registries in Queensland and Victoria. Information on patient, tumor, and health service characteristics was obtained via chart review. Multivariable logistic regression was used to evaluate exposures associated with incident CKD (estimated glomerular filtration rate [eGFR] <60 mL per minute per 1.73 m2) at 12 months after nephrectomy. RESULTS: Older age (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] per 5-year increase, 1.5; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.4-1.6), male sex (aOR, 1.4; 95% CI, 1.0-2.0), obese compared with not obese (aOR, 1.8; 95% CI, 1.2-2.7), rural compared with urban place of residence (aOR, 1.8; 95% CI, 1.1-3.0) were associated with a higher risk of incident CKD. Lower preoperative eGFR was also associated with a higher risk of incident CKD. Management in private compared with public hospitals was also associated with a higher risk of CKD (aOR, 1.6; 95% CI, 1.2-2.2). Factors related to tumor size and cancer severity were also associated with worse postoperative kidney function, although it is likely this was a consequence of selection bias. CONCLUSION: Patient characteristics have the strongest associations with incident CKD after radical nephrectomy. Potential risk factors were reasonably similar to recognized CKD risk factors for the general population. Patients who undergo nephrectomy who have CKD risk factors might benefit from ongoing postoperative screening for deterioration of kidney function.