OLD-TAVR score to predict 2-year mortality in patients aged 75 years and more undergoing transcatheter aortic valve replacement.

PURPOSE: Decision-making on transcatheter aortic valve replacement (TAVR) in patients aged 75 years and older is complex. It could be facilitated by the identification of predictors of long-term mortality. This study aimed to identify predictors of 2-year mortality to develop a 2-year mortality risk score. METHODS: Cohort study of consecutive patients aged ≥ 75 years who underwent TAVR after a comprehensive geriatric assessment (CGA) at our university hospital between 2012 and 2019. Predictors of 2-year mortality were determined using multivariable Cox regression. A point-based predictive model was developed based on risk factors and subsequently internally validated by fivefold cross-validation. RESULTS: The 345 patients (median age 87 years, 54% women) were fit/vulnerable (32%), mildly frail (37%), or moderately/severely frail (31%). The overall 2-year mortality rate was 26%, predicted by atrial fibrillation, hemoglobin ≤ 10 g/dL, age ≥ 87 years, BMI ≤ 24, eGFR ≤ 50 ml/min, and moderate/severe frailty. The risk score (range 0-12), named OLD-TAVR score, for 2-year mortality showed good discriminative power (AUC 0.70) and remained consistent after fivefold cross-validation (cvAUC 0.69). A risk score ≥ 8 (prevalence 20%) predicted a 45% (95%CI: 34-58%) two-year mortality, with high specificity (86%) and good positive predictive power (+ LR 2.43). CONCLUSION: A 2-year mortality risk score (OLD-TAVR score) for very old patients undergoing TAVR was developed based on six bio-clinical items. A score ≥ 8 identified patients in whom 2-year mortality was very high and thereby the TAVR futile. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER AND DATE OF REGISTRATION: Study protocol B403, 26/09/2022, retrospectively registered.

Factors to improve quality for older patients in the emergency department: a qualitative study of patient trajectory.

BACKGROUND: Managing older people in the emergency department remains a challenge. We aimed to identify the factors influencing the care quality of older patients in the emergency department, to fine-tune future interventions for older people, considering the naturalistic context of the ED. METHODS: This is a qualitative study of some 450 h of observations performed in three emergency departments selected for their diverse contexts. We performed seventy observations of older patient trajectories admitted to the emergency department. Themes were extracted from the material using an inductive reasoning approach, to highlight factors positively or negatively influencing management of patient's trajectories, in particular those presenting with typically geriatric syndromes. RESULTS: Four themes were developed: no geriatric flow routine; risk of discontinuity of care; unmet basic needs and patient-centered care; complex older patients are unwelcome in EDs. CONCLUSIONS: The overall process of care was based on an organ- and flow-centered paradigm, which ignored older people's specific needs and exposed them to discontinuity of care. Their basic needs were neglected and, when their management slowed the emergency department flow, older people were perceived as unwelcome. Findings of our study can inform the development of interventions about the influence of context and organizational factors.

Low haemoglobin at admission is associated with mortality after hip fractures in elderly patients.

AIMS: Low haemoglobin (Hb) at admission has been identified as a risk factor for mortality for elderly patients with hip fractures in some studies. However, this remains controversial. This study aims to analyze the association between Hb level at admission and mortality in elderly patients with hip fracture undergoing surgery. PATIENTS AND METHODS: All consecutive patients (prospective database) admitted with hip fracture operated in a tertiary hospital between 2012 and 2016 were analyzed. We collected patient characteristics, time to surgery, duration and type of surgery, comorbidities, Hb at admission, nadir of Hb after surgery, the use and amount of red blood cells (RBCs) transfusion products, postoperative complications, and death. The main outcome measures were mortality at 30 days, 90 days, 180 days, and one year after surgery. RESULTS: We included 829 patients; the mean age was 81 years (sd 11). Mortality at 30 days, 90 days, 180 days, and one year was 5.7%, 12.3%, 18.1%, and 23.5%, respectively. The highest mortality was observed in patients aged over 80 years (162/557, 29%) and in male patients (85/267, 32%). Survival at 90 days, 180 days, and one year after surgery was significantly lower in patients with a Hb level below 120 g/l at admission. In multivariate analysis, Hb level below 120 g/l at admission was found to be an independent factor associated with mortality (adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) 1.68 (95% confidence interval (CI) 1.22 to 2.31); p = 0.001), along with age (aHR 1.06 (95% CI 1.04 to 1.06); p < 0.001), male sex (aHR 2.19 (95% CI 1.61 to 2.96); p < 0.001), and need for RBC transfusions (aHR 1.10 (95% CI 1.02 to 1.19); p = 0.01). CONCLUSION: Our results suggest that low Hb at admission along with age and RBC transfusions is significantly associated with short- and long-term mortality after hip fracture surgery, independently of comorbidity confounders. Further studies should be performed to understand how preoperative Hb could be taken into account in perioperative management. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2019;101-B:1122-1128.

Can we predict functional decline in hospitalized older people admitted through the emergency department? Reanalysis of a predictive tool ten years after its conception.

BACKGROUND: In the Emergency Department (ED), early and rapid identification of older people at risk of adverse outcomes, who could best benefit from complex geriatric intervention, would avoid wasting time, especially in terms of prevention of adverse outcomes, and ensure optimal orientation of vulnerable patients. We wanted to test the predictive ability of a screening tool assessing risk of functional decline (FD), named SHERPA, 10 years after its conception, and to assess the added value of other clinical or biological factors associated with FD. METHODS: A prospective cohort study of older patients (n = 305, ≥ 75 years) admitted through the emergency department, for at least 48 h in non-geriatric wards (mean age 82.5 ± 4.9, 55% women). SHERPA variables (i.e. age, pre-admission instrumental Activity of Daily Living (ADL) status, falls within a year, self-rated health and 21-point MMSE) were collected within 48 h of admission, along with socio-demographic, medical and biological data. Functional status was followed at 3 months by phone. FD was defined as a decrease at 3 months of at least one point in the pre-admission basic ADL score. Predictive ability of SHERPA was assessed using c-statistic, predictive values and likelihood ratios. Measures of discrimination improvement were Net Reclassification Improvement and Integrated Discrimination Improvement. RESULTS: One hundred and five patients (34%) developed 3-month FD. Predictive ability of SHERPA decreased dramatically over 10 years (c = 0.73 vs. 0.64). Only two of its constitutive variables, i.e. falls and instrumental ADL, were significant in logistic regression analysis for functional decline, while 21-point MMSE was kept in the model for clinical relevance. Demographic, comorbidity or laboratory data available upon admission did not improve the SHERPA predictive yield. CONCLUSIONS: Prediction of FD with SHERPA is difficult, but predictive factors, i.e. falls, pre-existing functional limitation and cognitive impairment, stay consistent across time and with literature. As accuracy of SHERPA and others existing screening tools for FD is moderate, using these predictors as flags instead of using composite scales can be a way to screen for high-risk patients.

Changes in the clinical features of older patients admitted from the emergency department.

Demographic changes and healthcare reforms may impact the profile of hospitalized older persons. In this study, we sought to compare the characteristics of two prospective cohorts recruited at a ten-year interval (1999, n=253-2009, n=355). They included older patients (≥75 years) admitted through the emergency department for at least 48 h in acute non-geriatric wards in the same university hospital. The exclusion criteria were patients who were admitted directly to the intensive care unit, who were dependent for all 6 Activities of Daily Living (ADL), who had recently suffered from a major stroke, or whose with a life expectancy of less than 3 months. Median age was higher in 2009 than in 1999 (83 vs. 81; p=0.020), with a higher proportion of those aged 85 years and over (p=0.026). Patients in the 2009 cohort were less likely to live in a nursing home (p=0.018), more dependent for the basic ADL (p<0.001), more independent for the instrumental ADL (p<0.001). They were more likely to have fallen in the previous year (p<0.001). They took more medications (p<0.001). Their length-of-stay was shorter (p<0.001), but they were more likely to be discharged to a rehabilitation center (p<0.001). They underwent more early re-admissions (p=0.020) and similar 3-month functional decline (p=0.614). In conclusion, within a decade, the social, functional and medical characteristics of older patients admitted to hospital have changed significantly. In view of the high consumption of in-patient services by this population, hospitals must adapt to these rapid changes.

Impact of frailty scores on outcome of octogenarian patients undergoing transcatheter aortic valve implantation.

BACKGROUND: For selected patients with symptomatic aortic stenosis, transcatheter aortic valve implantation (TAVI) is an alternative to surgical aortic valve replacement (AVR). In addition to co-morbidities, frailty has to be taken into account in the decision-making process. Criteria for patient selection, according to current guidelines, include EuroSCORE and STS score but frailty is not easy to quantify. ISAR (Identification of Seniors At Risk) detects seniors at risk for adverse health outcome after an emergency visit and SHERPA (Score Hospitalier d'Evaluation du Risque de Perte d'Autonomie) assesses the risk of functional decline after hospitalization. OBJECTIVES: The aim of the present study was to evaluate the impact of ISAR and SHERPA scores in the prediction of patient outcome afterTAVI. METHODS AND RESULTS: A prospective cohort of 30 consecutive octogenarian patients (16 males, 86 +/- 3 y, EuroSCORE 34 +/- 12%) underwent a transfemoral TAVI and a complete geriatric assessment in our institution. Survival at one year was 73%. The ISAR score was similar between both groups (3.1 +/- 1 vs. 3.6 +/- 1; P = 0.10) but the SHERPA score was significantly higher in non-survivors (7.8 +/- 1.6) than among survivors (4.9 +/- 2.4; P = 0.001). With multivariate analysis, SHERPA score and BMI were independent predictors of 1-year mortality. Kaplan-Meier analysis showed that 1-year survival was significantly lower in patients with than in those without a SHERPA score > 7 (40 vs. 89%; P = 0.004). CONCLUSIONS: The result of this study showed that SHERPA score predicts 1-year survival after transfemoral TAVI and could be considered as a useful frailty score in patient selection.

Prediction of risk of in-hospital geriatric complications in older patients with hip fracture.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Hip fracture in older persons is a frequent reason for hospital admission and a substantial workload in orthopedic wards for geriatric liaison teams. However, robust patients who do not present in-hospital complications may not need geriatric liaison. For the sake of triage, we studied the ability of usual admission scores to identify patients who will not develop in-hospital complications, and who may therefore not be included in the overworked geriatric liaison teams. METHODS: A retrospective cohort of consecutive community- living elderly patients (age ≥ 75 yrs), admitted for traumatic hip fracture in the orthopedic divisions of a teaching hospital over 18 months was examined. The predictive value of commonly used frailty scores (ISAR, VIP, KATZ) to rule out the incidence of three frequent and preventable in-hospital acute geriatric events (major behavioral problems, pressure sores, falls) was assessed by ROC curves and negative likelihood ratio (-LR). RESULTS: Of 145 older persons with hip fracture (median age 84 years; 76% women; 57% living alone, 44% with pre-existing geriatric syndromes), 81 (56%) presented some acute geriatric events (AGE), i.e. major behavioral problems (46%), pressure sores (19%) and/or falls (5%). The three frailty admission scores showed low power for AGE prediction (area under the ROC curve: 53- 58%) and identification of patients who will not present in-hospital AGE (-LR>0.5 at the most sensitive cut-off). CONCLUSIONS: None of the three scores helped in the triage of patients according to their risk of future in-hospital AGE. All older patients with hip fracture, irrespective of their admission frailty-robustness profile, should receive geriatric evaluation and intervention.

Early evaluation of the risk of functional decline following hospitalization of older patients: development of a predictive tool.

OBJECTIVE: To develop a predictive tool that could be used on admission to identify older hospitalized people at risk of functional decline 3 months after discharge. METHODS: This was a prospective cohort study that included 625 patients aged 70 years and older (mean age 80.0 +/- 5.6 years) hospitalized by the way of the emergency room, for at least 48 h, in two academic hospitals. Three months after discharge, 550 patients remained for analysis. On admission, people were assessed for premorbid functional status with the activities of daily living (ADL) scale and instrumental ADL scale. Demographic and medical data, including cognitive function, falls, polypharmacy, comorbidity, continence, mobility and self-rated health, were collected. ADL functioning was re-assessed at discharge and 1 and 3 months later. Functional decline was defined as the loss of at least one point on the ADL scale between the premorbid and 3-month evaluation. Univariate analyses were used to select variables associated with functional decline. A logistic regression model was then constructed to predict functional status 3 months after discharge. RESULTS: Three months after discharge, 165 (31.5%) patients had declined. The predictive tool SHERPA includes five factors: age, impairment in premorbid instrumental ADLs, falls in the year before hospitalization, cognitive impairment (Abbreviated Mini Mental State below 15/21) and poor self-rated health. Sensitivity and specificity were 67.9% and 70.8%, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Older people are at high risk of functional decline following hospitalization. On admission, a simple instrument can easily identify these patients, even though the performance of this instrument is moderate.