The effect of temperature on the boundary conditions of West Nile virus circulation in Europe.

West Nile virus (WNV) is a vector-borne flavivirus that causes an increasing number of human and equine West Nile fever cases in Europe. While the virus has been present in the Mediterranean basin and the Balkans since the 1960s, recent years have witnessed its northward expansion, with the first human cases reported in Germany in 2018 and the Netherlands in 2020. WNV transmission and amplification within mosquitoes are temperature-dependent. This study applies a mathematical modelling approach to assess the conditions under which WNV circulation occurs based on the proportion of mosquito bites on WNV-competent birds (dilution), vector-host ratios, mosquito season length and the observed daily temperature data. We modelled five distinct European regions where previous WNV circulation has been observed within the Netherlands, Germany, Spain, Italy, and Greece. We observed that the number of days in which the basic reproduction number (R0) is above one, increased over the last 40 years in all five regions. In the Netherlands, the number of days in which the R0 is above one, is 70% lower than in Spain. The temperature in Greece, Spain and Italy allowed for circulation under low vector-host ratios, and at a high dilution. On the other hand in the Netherlands and Germany, given the observed daily temperature, the thresholds for circulation requires a lower dilution and higher vector-host ratios. For the Netherlands, a short window of introductions between late May and mid-June would result in detectable outbreaks. Our findings revealed that the temperate maritime climate of the Netherlands allows WNV circulation primarily during warmer summers, and only under high vector-host ratios. This research contributes valuable insights into the dynamic relationship between temperature, vector properties, and WNV transmission, offering guidance for proactive strategies in addressing this emerging health threat in Europe.

How to update a living systematic review and keep it alive during a pandemic: a practical guide.

BACKGROUND: The covid-19 pandemic has highlighted the role of living systematic reviews. The speed of evidence generated during the covid-19 pandemic accentuated the challenges of managing high volumes of research literature. METHODS: In this article, we summarise the characteristics of ongoing living systematic reviews on covid-19, and we follow a life cycle approach to describe key steps in a living systematic review. RESULTS: We identified 97 living systematic reviews on covid-19, published up to 7th November 2022, which focused mostly on the effects of pharmacological interventions (n = 46, 47%) or the prevalence of associated conditions or risk factors (n = 30, 31%). The scopes of several reviews overlapped considerably. Most living systematic reviews included both observational and randomised study designs (n = 45, 46%). Only one-third of the reviews has been updated at least once (n = 34, 35%). We address practical aspects of living systematic reviews including how to judge whether to start a living systematic review, methods for study identification and selection, data extraction and evaluation, and give recommendations at each step, drawing from our own experience. We also discuss when it is time to stop and how to publish updates. CONCLUSIONS: Methods to improve the efficiency of searching, study selection, and data extraction using machine learning technologies are being developed, their performance and applicability, particularly for reviews based on observational study designs should improve, and ways of publishing living systematic reviews and their updates will continue to evolve. Finally, knowing when to end a living systematic review is as important as knowing when to start.

Seroprevalence and associated risk factors of brucellosis, Rift Valley fever and Q fever among settled and mobile agro-pastoralist communities and their livestock in Chad.

Brucellosis, Rift Valley fever (RVF) and Q fever are zoonoses prevalent in many developing countries, causing a high burden on human and animal health. Only a few studies are available on these among agro-pastoralist communities and their livestock in Chad. The objective of our study was to estimate brucellosis, RVF and Q fever seroprevalence among Chadian agro-pastoralist communities and their livestock, and to investigate risk factors for seropositivity. We conducted a multi-stage cross-sectional serological survey in two rural health districts, Yao and Danamadji (966 human and 1041 livestock (cattle, sheep, goat and equine) samples)). The true seroprevalence were calculated applying a Bayesian framework to adjust for imperfect diagnostic test characteristics and accounting for clustering in the study design. Risk factors for each of the zoonotic diseases were estimated using mixed effects logistic regression models. The overall prevalence for brucellosis, Q fever and RVF combined for both regions was estimated at 0.2% [95% credibility Interval: 0-1.1], 49.1% [%CI: 38.9-58.8] and 28.1% [%CI: 23.4-33.3] in humans, and 0.3% [%CI: 0-1.5], 12.8% [%CI: 9.7-16.4] and 10.2% [%CI: 7.6-13.4] in animals. Risk factors correlating significantly with the respective disease seropositivity were sex for human brucellosis, sex and Q fever co-infection for animal brucellosis, age for human Q fever, species and brucellosis co-infection for animal Q fever, age and herd-level animal RVF seroprevalence within the same cluster for human RVF, and cluster-level human RVF seroprevalence within the same cluster for animal RVF. In Danamadji and Yao, Q fever and RVF are notably seroprevalent among agro-pastoralist human and animal communities, while brucellosis appears to have a low prevalence. Correlation between the seroprevalence between humans and animals living in the same communities was detected for RVF, highlighting the interlinkage of human and animal transmissible diseases and of their health, highlighting the importance of a One Health approach.

Assessment of the efficacy of SARS-CoV-2 vaccines in non-human primate studies: a systematic review.

Background: The outbreak of Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) triggered the rapid and successful development of vaccines to help mitigate the effect of COVID-19 and circulation of the virus. Vaccine efficacy is often defined as capacity of vaccines to prevent (severe) disease. However, the efficacy to prevent transmission or infectiousness is equally important at a population level. This is not routinely assessed in clinical trials. Preclinical vaccine trials provide a wealth of information about the presence and persistence of viruses in different anatomical sites. Methods: We systematically reviewed all available preclinical SARS-CoV-2 candidate vaccine studies where non-human primates were challenged after vaccination (PROSPERO registration: CRD42021231199). We extracted the underlying data, and recalculated the reduction in viral shedding. We summarized the efficacy of  vaccines to reduce viral RNA shedding after challenge by standardizing and stratifying the results by different anatomical sites and diagnostic methods. We considered shedding of viral RNA as a proxy measure for infectiousness. Results: We found a marked heterogeneity between the studies in the experimental design and the assessment of the outcomes. The best performing vaccine candidate per study caused only low (6 out of 12 studies), or moderate (5 out of 12) reduction of viral genomic RNA, and low (5 out of 11 studies) or moderate (3 out of 11 studies) reduction of subgenomic RNA in the upper respiratory tract, as assessed with nasal samples. Conclusions: Since most of the tested vaccines only triggered a low or moderate reduction of viral RNA in the upper respiratory tract, we need to consider that most SARS-CoV-2 vaccines that protect against disease might not fully protect against infectiousness and vaccinated individuals might still contribute to SARS-CoV-2 transmission. Careful assessment of secondary attack rates from vaccinated individuals is warranted. Standardization in design and reporting of preclinical trials is necessary.

Outbreaks of publications about emerging infectious diseases: the case of SARS-CoV-2 and Zika virus.

BACKGROUND: Outbreaks of infectious diseases generate outbreaks of scientific evidence. In 2016 epidemics of Zika virus emerged, and in 2020, a novel severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) caused a pandemic of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). We compared patterns of scientific publications for the two infections to analyse the evolution of the evidence. METHODS: We annotated publications on Zika virus and SARS-CoV-2 that we collected using living evidence databases according to study design. We used descriptive statistics to categorise and compare study designs over time. RESULTS: We found 2286 publications about Zika virus in 2016 and 21,990 about SARS-CoV-2 up to 24 May 2020, of which we analysed a random sample of 5294 (24%). For both infections, there were more epidemiological than laboratory science studies. Amongst epidemiological studies for both infections, case reports, case series and cross-sectional studies emerged first, cohort and case-control studies were published later. Trials were the last to emerge. The number of preprints was much higher for SARS-CoV-2 than for Zika virus. CONCLUSIONS: Similarities in the overall pattern of publications might be generalizable, whereas differences are compatible with differences in the characteristics of a disease. Understanding how evidence accumulates during disease outbreaks helps us understand which types of public health questions we can answer and when.

Zika virus infection as a cause of congenital brain abnormalities and Guillain-Barré syndrome: A living systematic review.

Background: The Zika virus (ZIKV) caused a large outbreak in the Americas leading to the declaration of a Public Health Emergency of International Concern in February 2016. A causal relation between infection and adverse congenital outcomes such as microcephaly was declared by the World Health Organization (WHO) informed by a systematic review structured according to a framework of ten dimensions of causality, based on the work of Bradford Hill. Subsequently, the evidence has continued to accumulate, which we incorporate in regular updates of the original work, rendering it a living systematic review. Methods: We present an update of our living systematic review on the causal relation between ZIKV infection and adverse congenital outcomes and between ZIKV and GBS for four dimensions of causality: strength of association, dose-response, specificity, and consistency. We assess the evidence published between January 18, 2017 and July 1, 2019. Results: We found that the strength of association between ZIKV infection and adverse outcomes from case-control studies differs according to whether exposure to ZIKV is assessed in the mother (OR 3.8, 95% CI: 1.7-8.7, I 2=19.8%) or the foetus/infant (OR 37.4, 95% CI: 11.0-127.1, I 2=0%). In cohort studies, the risk of congenital abnormalities was 3.5 times higher after ZIKV infection (95% CI: 0.9-13.5, I 2=0%). The strength of association between ZIKV infection and GBS was higher in studies that enrolled controls from hospital (OR: 55.8, 95% CI: 17.2-181.7, I 2=0%) than in studies that enrolled controls at random from the same community or household (OR: 2.0, 95% CI: 0.8-5.4, I 2=74.6%). In case-control studies, selection of controls from hospitals could have biased results. Conclusions: The conclusions that ZIKV infection causes adverse congenital outcomes and GBS are reinforced with the evidence published between January 18, 2017 and July 1, 2019.

Sexual transmission of Zika virus and other flaviviruses: A living systematic review.

BACKGROUND: Health authorities in the United States and Europe reported an increasing number of travel-associated episodes of sexual transmission of Zika virus (ZIKV) following the 2015-2017 ZIKV outbreak. This, and other scientific evidence, suggests that ZIKV is sexually transmissible in addition to having its primary mosquito-borne route. The objective of this systematic review and evidence synthesis was to clarify the epidemiology of sexually transmitted ZIKV. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We performed a living (i.e., continually updated) systematic review of evidence published up to 15 April 2018 about sexual transmission of ZIKV and other arthropod-borne flaviviruses in humans and other animals. We defined 7 key elements of ZIKV sexual transmission for which we extracted data: (1) rectal and vaginal susceptibility to infection, (2) incubation period following sexual transmission, (3) serial interval between the onset of symptoms in a primary and secondary infected individuals, (4) duration of infectiousness, (5) reproduction number, (6) probability of transmission per sex act, and (7) transmission rate. We identified 1,227 unique publications and included 128, of which 77 presented data on humans and 51 presented data on animals. Laboratory experiments confirm that rectal and vaginal mucosae are susceptible to infection with ZIKV and that the testis serves as a reservoir for the virus in animal models. Sexual transmission was reported in 36 human couples: 34/36 of these involved male-to-female sexual transmission. The median serial symptom onset interval in 15 couples was 12 days (interquartile range: 10-14.5); the maximum was 44 days. We found evidence from 2 prospective cohorts that ZIKV RNA is present in human semen with a median duration of 34 days (95% CI: 28-41 days) and 35 days (no CI given) (low certainty of evidence, according to GRADE). Aggregated data about detection of ZIKV RNA from 37 case reports and case series indicate a median duration of detection of ZIKV of 40 days (95% CI: 30-49 days) and maximum duration of 370 days in semen. In human vaginal fluid, median duration was 14 days (95% CI: 7-20 days) and maximum duration was 37 days (very low certainty). Infectious virus in human semen was detected for a median duration of 12 days (95% CI: 1-21 days) and maximum of 69 days. Modelling studies indicate that the reproduction number is below 1 (very low certainty). Evidence was lacking to estimate the incubation period or the transmission rate. Evidence on sexual transmission of other flaviviruses was scarce. The certainty of the evidence is limited because of uncontrolled residual bias. CONCLUSIONS: The living systematic review and sexual transmission framework allowed us to assess evidence about the risk of sexual transmission of ZIKV. ZIKV is more likely transmitted from men to women than from women to men. For other flaviviruses, evidence of sexual transmissibility is still absent. Taking into account all available data about the duration of detection of ZIKV in culture and from the serial interval, our findings suggest that the infectious period for sexual transmission of ZIKV is shorter than estimates from the earliest post-outbreak studies, which were based on reverse transcription PCR alone.

Zika virus infection as a cause of congenital brain abnormalities and Guillain-Barré syndrome: From systematic review to living systematic review.

Background. The Zika virus (ZIKV) outbreak in the Americas has caused international concern due to neurological sequelae linked to the infection, such as microcephaly and Guillain-Barré syndrome (GBS). The World Health Organization stated that there is "sufficient evidence to conclude that Zika virus is a cause of congenital abnormalities and is a trigger of GBS". This conclusion was based on a systematic review of the evidence published until 30.05.2016. Since then, the body of evidence has grown substantially, leading to this update of that systematic review with new evidence published from 30.05.2016 - 18.01.2017, update 1. Methods. We review evidence on the causal link between ZIKV infection and adverse congenital outcomes and the causal link between ZIKV infection and GBS or immune-mediated thrombocytopaenia purpura. We also describe the transition of the review into a living systematic review, a review that is continually updated. Results. Between 30.05.2016 and 18.01.2017, we identified 2413 publications, of which 101 publications were included. The evidence added in this update confirms the conclusion of a causal association between ZIKV and adverse congenital outcomes. New findings expand the evidence base in the dimensions of biological plausibility, strength of association, animal experiments and specificity. For GBS, the body of evidence has grown during the search period for update 1, but only for dimensions that were already populated in the previous version. There is still a limited understanding of the biological pathways that potentially cause the occurrence of autoimmune disease following ZIKV infection. Conclusions. This systematic review confirms previous conclusions that ZIKV is a cause of congenital abnormalities, including microcephaly, and is a trigger of GBS. The transition to living systematic review techniques and methodology provides a proof of concept for the use of these methods to synthesise evidence about an emerging pathogen such as ZIKV.

Canine leptospirosis in Switzerland-A prospective cross-sectional study examining seroprevalence, risk factors and urinary shedding of pathogenic leptospires.

Leptospirosis is an important worldwide zoonosis. While human leptospirosis remains rare in Switzerland, the incidence of canine leptospirosis is unusually high compared to other European countries. The aims of this cross-sectional study were to determine the exposure of asymtomatic dogs to pathogenic Leptospira in Switzerland, to characterise risk factors associated with seropositivity and to determine the prevalence of urinary shedding. Sampling was stratified to cover the whole of Switzerland. Sera were tested by microscopic agglutination test for antibodies against a panel of 12 serovars. Urine was tested for pathogenic Leptospira using a LipL32 real-time PCR. Of 377 sera, 55.7% (95%CI 51.2-60.7) showed a reciprocal MAT titre of ≥1:40 and 24.9% (95%CI 20.7-29.4) of ≥1:100 to at least one serovar. Seropositivity (MAT ≥1:100) was most common to serovars Australis (14.9%; 95% CI 11.4-18.6) and Bratislava (8.8%; 95%CI 6.1-11.7), followed by Copenhageni (6.1%; 95%CI 3.7-8.5), Canicola (5%; 95%CI 2.9-7.4), Grippotyphosa (4.5%; 95%CI 2.7-6.9), Pomona (4%; 95%CI 2.1-6.1), Autumnalis (2.7%; 95%CI 1.3-4.2) and Icterohaemorrhagiae (1.6%; 95%CI 0.5-2.9). In unvaccinated dogs (n=84) the prevalence of a MAT titre ≥100 was 17.9% (95%CI 10.7-26.2), with a similar distribution of reactive serovars. Variables associated with seropositivity (≥1:40) to any serovar included age (OR 1.29/year; 95%CI: 1.1-1.5) and bioregion with higher risks in the regions Northern Alps (OR 14.5; 95%CI 2.2-292.7), Central Plateau (OR 12.3; 95%CI 2.0-244.1) and Jura (OR 11.2; 95%CI 1.7-226.7) compared to Southern Central Alps. Dogs living with horses were significantly more likely to have antibodies to serovar Bratislava (OR 4.68;95%CI 1.2-17.2). Hunting was a significant risk factor for seropositivtiy to serovar Grippotyphosa (OR 8.03; 95%CI 1.6-30.8). Urine qPCR positivity was uncommon (1/408 dogs; 0.2%; 95% CI0-0.7). These results demonstrate that dogs in Switzerland are commonly exposed to pathogenic Leptospira; however, the risk of dogs contributing to the spread of Leptospira in the environment appears low.