AdaptSPEC-X: Covariate-Dependent Spectral Modeling of Multiple Nonstationary Time Series.

We present the AdaptSPEC-X method for the joint analysis of a panel of possibly nonstationary time series. The approach is Bayesian and uses a covariate-dependent infinite mixture model to incorporate multiple time series, with mixture components parameterized by a time-varying mean and log spectrum. The mixture components are based on AdaptSPEC, a nonparametric model which adaptively divides the time series into an unknown number of segments and estimates the local log spectra by smoothing splines. AdaptSPEC-X extends AdaptSPEC in three ways. First, through the infinite mixture, it applies to multiple time series linked by covariates. Second, it can handle missing values, a common feature of time series which can cause difficulties for nonparametric spectral methods. Third, it allows for a time-varying mean. Through these extensions, AdaptSPEC-X can estimate time-varying means and spectra at observed and unobserved covariate values, allowing for predictive inference. Estimation is performed by Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods, combining data augmentation, reversible jump, and Riemann manifold Hamiltonian Monte Carlo techniques. We evaluate the methodology using simulated data, and describe applications to Australian rainfall data and measles incidence in the US. Software implementing the method proposed in this paper is available in the R package BayesSpec.

Statistical finite elements for misspecified models.

We present a statistical finite element method for nonlinear, time-dependent phenomena, illustrated in the context of nonlinear internal waves (solitons). We take a Bayesian approach and leverage the finite element method to cast the statistical problem as a nonlinear Gaussian state-space model, updating the solution, in receipt of data, in a filtering framework. The method is applicable to problems across science and engineering for which finite element methods are appropriate. The Korteweg-de Vries equation for solitons is presented because it reflects the necessary complexity while being suitably familiar and succinct for pedagogical purposes. We present two algorithms to implement this method, based on the extended and ensemble Kalman filters, and demonstrate effectiveness with a simulation study and a case study with experimental data. The generality of our approach is demonstrated in SI Appendix, where we present examples from additional nonlinear, time-dependent partial differential equations (Burgers equation, Kuramoto-Sivashinsky equation).

No evidence of damage to the soft tissue or skeletal integrity of mesophotic corals exposed to a 3D marine seismic survey.

Scleractinian corals, primarily plate corals in families Agaricidae and Acroporidae, were monitored in situ before, during and after a 3D marine seismic survey. An initial four day seismic run, resulting in a maximum 24 h received sound exposure level (SEL24) of 204 dB re 1 µPa2·s and received 0-to-peak pressure (PK Pressure) of 226 dB re 1 µPa, had no detectable effect on soft tissues or skeletal integrity. Subsequently, a full marine seismic survey (Maxima 3D MSS), proceeded over two months and included seismic acquisition lines at 240 m spacing over the broader reef lagoon (South Scott Reef), generating maximum received SEL24 of 197 dB re 1 µPa2·s and received PK Pressure of 220 dB re 1 µPa at the coral monitoring sites. The analysis detected no effect of seismic activity measured as coral mortality, skeletal damage or visible signs of stress immediately after and up to four months following the 3D marine seismic survey.

Bayesian Analysis of Individual Level Personality Dynamics.

A Bayesian technique with analyses of within-person processes at the level of the individual is presented. The approach is used to examine whether the patterns of within-person responses on a 12-trial simulation task are consistent with the predictions of ITA theory (Dweck, 1999). ITA theory states that the performance of an individual with an entity theory of ability is more likely to spiral down following a failure experience than the performance of an individual with an incremental theory of ability. This is because entity theorists interpret failure experiences as evidence of a lack of ability which they believe is largely innate and therefore relatively fixed; whilst incremental theorists believe in the malleability of abilities and interpret failure experiences as evidence of more controllable factors such as poor strategy or lack of effort. The results of our analyses support ITA theory at both the within- and between-person levels of analyses and demonstrate the benefits of Bayesian techniques for the analysis of within-person processes. These include more formal specification of the theory and the ability to draw inferences about each individual, which allows for more nuanced interpretations of individuals within a personality category, such as differences in the individual probabilities of spiraling. While Bayesian techniques have many potential advantages for the analyses of processes at the level of the individual, ease of use is not one of them for psychologists trained in traditional frequentist statistical techniques.

Three dimensional marine seismic survey has no measurable effect on species richness or abundance of a coral reef associated fish community.

Underwater visual census was used to determine the effect of a three dimensional seismic survey on the shallow water coral reef slope associated fish community at Scott Reef. A census of the fish community was conducted on six locations at Scott Reef both before and after the survey. The census included small site attached demersal species belonging to the family Pomacentridae and larger roving demersal species belonging to the non-Pomacentridae families. These data were combined with a decade of historical data to assess the impact of the seismic survey. Taking into account spatial, temporal, spatio-temporal and observer variability, modelling showed no significant effect of the seismic survey on the overall abundance or species richness of Pomacentridae or non-Pomacentridae. The six most abundant species were also analysed individually. In all cases no detectable effect of the seismic survey was found on the abundance of these fish species at Scott Reef.

Phenotypic covariance at species' borders.

BACKGROUND: Understanding the evolution of species limits is important in ecology, evolution, and conservation biology. Despite its likely importance in the evolution of these limits, little is known about phenotypic covariance in geographically marginal populations, and the degree to which it constrains, or facilitates, responses to selection. We investigated phenotypic covariance in morphological traits at species' borders by comparing phenotypic covariance matrices (P), including the degree of shared structure, the distribution of strengths of pair-wise correlations between traits, the degree of morphological integration of traits, and the ranks of matricies, between central and marginal populations of three species-pairs of coral reef fishes. RESULTS: Greater structural differences in P were observed between populations close to range margins and conspecific populations toward range centres, than between pairs of conspecific populations that were both more centrally located within their ranges. Approximately 80% of all pair-wise trait correlations within populations were greater in the north, but these differences were unrelated to the position of the sampled population with respect to the geographic range of the species. CONCLUSIONS: Neither the degree of morphological integration, nor ranks of P, indicated greater evolutionary constraint at range edges. Characteristics of P observed here provide no support for constraint contributing to the formation of these species' borders, but may instead reflect structural change in P caused by selection or drift, and their potential to evolve in the future.