Development and validation of a prognostic model for death 30 days after adult emergency laparotomy.

The probability of death after emergency laparotomy varies greatly between patients. Accurate pre-operative risk prediction is fundamental to planning care and improving outcomes. We aimed to develop a model limited to a few pre-operative factors that performed well irrespective of surgical indication: obstruction; sepsis; ischaemia; bleeding; and other. We derived a model with data from the National Emergency Laparotomy Audit for patients who had emergency laparotomy between December 2016 and November 2018. We tested the model on patients who underwent emergency laparotomy between December 2018 and November 2019. There were 4077/40,816 (10%) deaths 30 days after surgery in the derivation cohort. The final model had 13 pre-operative variables: surgical indication; age; blood pressure; heart rate; respiratory history; urgency; biochemical markers; anticipated malignancy; anticipated peritoneal soiling; and ASA physical status. The predicted mortality probability deciles ranged from 0.1% to 47%. There were 1888/11,187 deaths in the test cohort. The scaled Brier score, integrated calibration index and concordance for the model were 20%, 0.006 and 0.86, respectively. Model metrics were similar for the five surgical indications. In conclusion, we think that this prognostic model is suitable to support decision-making before emergency laparotomy as well as for risk adjustment for comparing organisations.

Variation in Rates of Post-Mastectomy Radiotherapy Among Women with Early Invasive Breast Cancer in England and Wales: A Population-Based Cohort Study.

AIMS: This study examined whether patterns of post-mastectomy radiotherapy (PMRT) among women with early invasive breast cancer (EIBC) varied within England and Wales and explored the role of different patient factors in explaining any variation. MATERIALS AND METHODS: The study used national cancer data on women aged ≥50 years diagnosed with EIBC (stage I-IIIa) in England and Wales between January 2014 and December 2018 who had a mastectomy within 12 months of diagnosis. A multilevel mixed-effects logistic regression model was used to calculate risk-adjusted rates of PMRT for geographical regions and National Health Service acute care organisations. The study examined the variation in these rates within subgroups of women with different risks of recurrence (low: T1-2N0; intermediate: T3N0/T1-2N1; high: T1-2N2/T3N1-2) and investigated whether the variation was linked to patient case-mix within regions and organisations. RESULTS: Among 26 228 women, use of PMRT increased with greater recurrence risk (low: 15.0%; intermediate: 59.4%; high: 85.1%). In all risk groups, use of PMRT was more common among women who had received chemotherapy and decreased among women aged ≥80 years. There was weak or no evidence of an association between use of PMRT and comorbidity or frailty, for each risk group. In women with an intermediate risk, unadjusted rates of PMRT varied substantially between geographical regions (range 40.3-77.3%), but varied less for the high-risk (range 77.1-91.6%) and low-risk groups (range 4.1-32.9%). Adjusting for patient case-mix reduced the variation in regional and organisational PMRT rates to a small degree. CONCLUSIONS: Rates of PMRT are consistently high across England and Wales among women with high-risk EIBC, but variation exists across regions and organisations for women with intermediate-risk EIBC. Effort is required to reduce unwarranted variation in practice for intermediate-risk EIBC.

The Association Between Survival and Receipt of Post-mastectomy Radiotherapy According to Age at Diagnosis Among Women With Early Invasive Breast Cancer: A Population-Based Cohort Study.

AIMS: Clinical trials of post-mastectomy radiotherapy (PMRT) for early invasive breast cancer (EIBC) have included few older women. This study examined whether the association between overall survival or breast cancer-specific survival (BCSS) and receipt of PMRT for EIBC altered with age. MATERIALS AND METHODS: The study used patient-level linked cancer registration, routine hospital and radiotherapy data for England and Wales. It included 31 243 women aged ≥50 years diagnosed between 2014 and 2018 with low- (T1-2N0), intermediate- (T3N0/T1-2N1) or high-risk (T1-2N2/T3N1-2) EIBC who received a mastectomy within 12 months from diagnosis. Patterns of survival were analysed using a landmark approach. Associations between overall survival/BCSS and PMRT in each risk group were analysed with flexible parametric survival models, which included patient and tumour factors; whether the association between PMRT and overall survival/BCSS varied by age was assessed using interaction terms. RESULTS: Among 4711 women with high-risk EIBC, 86% had PMRT. Five-year overall survival was 70.5% and BCSS was 79.3%. Receipt of PMRT was associated with improved overall survival [adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) 0.75, 95% confidence interval 0.64-0.87] and BCSS (aHR 0.78, 95% confidence interval 0.65-0.95) compared with women who did not have PMRT; associations did not vary by age (overall survival, P-value for interaction term = 0.141; BCSS, P = 0.077). Among 10 814 women with intermediate-risk EIBC, 59% had PMRT; 5-year overall survival was 78.4% and BCSS was 88.0%. No association was found between overall survival (aHR 1.01, 95% confidence interval 0.92-1.11) or BCSS (aHR 1.16, 95% confidence interval 1.01-1.32) and PMRT. There was statistical evidence of a small change in the association with age for overall survival (P = 0.007), although differences in relative survival were minimal, but not for BCSS (P = 0.362). CONCLUSIONS: The association between PMRT and overall survival/BCSS does not appear to be modified by age among women with high- or intermediate-risk EIBC and, thus, treatment recommendations should not be modified on the basis of age alone.

Change in the Use of Fractionation in Radiotherapy Used for Early Breast Cancer at the Start of the COVID-19 Pandemic: A Population-Based Cohort Study of Older Women in England and Wales.

AIMS: Adjuvant radiotherapy is recommended for most patients with early breast cancer (EBC) receiving breast-conserving surgery and those at moderate/high risk of recurrence treated by mastectomy. During the first wave of COVID-19 in England and Wales, there was rapid dissemination of randomised controlled trial-based evidence showing non-inferiority for five-fraction ultra-hypofractionated radiotherapy (HFRT) regimens compared with standard moderate-HFRT, with guidance recommending the use of five-fraction HFRT for eligible patients. We evaluated the uptake of this recommendation in clinical practice as part of the National Audit of Breast Cancer in Older Patients (NABCOP). MATERIALS AND METHODS: Women aged ≥50 years who underwent surgery for EBC from January 2019 to July 2020 were identified from the Rapid Cancer Registration Dataset for England and from Wales Cancer Network data. Radiotherapy details were from linked national Radiotherapy Datasets. Multivariate mixed-effects logistic regression models were used to assess characteristics influential in the use of ultra-HFRT. RESULTS: Among 35 561 women having surgery for EBC, 71% received postoperative radiotherapy. Receipt of 26 Gy in five fractions (26Gy5F) increased from <1% in February 2020 to 70% in April 2020. Regional variation in the use of 26Gy5F during April to July 2020 was similar by age, ranging from 49 to 87% among women aged ≥70 years. Use of 26Gy5F was characterised by no known nodal involvement, no comorbidities and initial breast-conserving surgery. Of those patients receiving radiotherapy to the breast/chest wall, 85% had 26Gy5F; 23% had 26Gy5F if radiotherapy included regional nodes. Among 5139 women receiving postoperative radiotherapy from April to July 2020, nodal involvement, overall stage, type of surgery, time from diagnosis to start of radiotherapy were independently associated with fractionation choice. CONCLUSIONS: There was a striking increase in the use of 26Gy5F dose fractionation regimens for EBC, among women aged ≥50 years, within a month of guidance published at the start of the COVID-19 pandemic in England and Wales.

Prediction of long-term survival after gastrectomy using random survival forests.

BACKGROUND: No well validated and contemporaneous tools for personalized prognostication of gastric adenocarcinoma exist. This study aimed to derive and validate a prognostic model for overall survival after surgery for gastric adenocarcinoma using a large national dataset. METHODS: National audit data from England and Wales were used to identify patients who underwent a potentially curative gastrectomy for adenocarcinoma of the stomach. A total of 2931 patients were included and 29 clinical and pathological variables were considered for their impact on survival. A non-linear random survival forest methodology was then trained and validated internally using bootstrapping with calibration and discrimination (time-dependent area under the receiver operator curve (tAUC)) assessed. RESULTS: The median survival of the cohort was 69 months, with a 5-year survival of 53.2 per cent. Ten variables were found to influence survival significantly and were included in the final model, with the most important being lymph node positivity, pT stage and achieving an R0 resection. Patient characteristics including ASA grade and age were also influential. On validation the model achieved excellent performance with a 5-year tAUC of 0.80 (95 per cent c.i. 0.78 to 0.82) and good agreement between observed and predicted survival probabilities. A wide spread of predictions for 3-year (14.8-98.3 (i.q.r. 43.2-84.4) per cent) and 5-year (9.4-96.1 (i.q.r. 31.7-73.8) per cent) survival were seen. CONCLUSIONS: A prognostic model for survival after a potentially curative resection for gastric adenocarcinoma was derived and exhibited excellent discrimination and calibration of predictions.

In this study the authors used a large nationwide dataset from England and Wales and tried to make a predictive model that estimated how long patients would survive after surgery for gastric cancer. They found that using a machine learning methodology provided excellent results and accuracy in predictions, significantly in excess of any other published model and traditional staging methods. The model will be useful to provide individualized prediction of survival to patients and in the future could be used to stratify treatments.

Surgical decisions in older women with early breast cancer: patient and disease factors.

BACKGROUND: Studies reporting lower rates of surgery for older women with early invasive breast cancer have focused on women with oestrogen receptor (ER)-positive tumours. This study examined the factors that influence receipt of breast surgery in older women with ER-positive and ER-negative early invasive breast cancer . METHODS: Women aged 50 years or above with unilateral stage 1-3A early invasive breast cancer diagnosed in 2014-2017 were identified from linked English and Welsh cancer registration and routine hospital data sets. Logistic regression analysis was used to evaluate the influence of tumour and patient factors on receipt of surgery. RESULTS: Among 83 188 women, 86.8 per cent had ER-positive and 13.2 per cent had ER-negative early invasive breast cancer. These proportions were unaffected by age at diagnosis. Compared with women with ER-negative breast cancer, a higher proportion of women with ER-positive breast cancer presented with low risk tumour characteristics: G1 (20.0 versus 1.5 per cent), T1 (60.8 versus 44.2 per cent) and N0 (73.9 versus 68.8 per cent). The proportions of women with any recorded co-morbidity (13.7 versus 14.3 per cent) or degree of frailty (25 versus 25.8 per cent) were similar among women with ER-positive and ER-negative disease respectively. In women with ER-positive early invasive breast cancer aged 70-74, 75-79 and 80 years or above, the rate of no surgery was 5.6, 11.0 and 41.9 per cent respectively. Among women with ER-negative early invasive breast cancer, the corresponding rates were 3.8, 3.7 and 12.3 per cent. The relatively lower rate of surgery for ER-positive breast cancer persisted in women with good fitness. CONCLUSION: The reasons for the observer differences should be further explored to ensure consistency in treatment decisions.

Effectiveness of a quality improvement collaborative in reducing time to surgery for patients requiring emergency cholecystectomy.

Background: Acute gallstone disease is a high-volume emergency general surgery presentation with wide variations in the quality of care provided across the UK. This controlled cohort evaluation assessed whether participation in a quality improvement collaborative approach reduced time to surgery for patients with acute gallstone disease to fewer than 8 days from presentation, in line with national guidance. Methods: Patients admitted to hospital with acute biliary conditions in England and Wales between 1 April 2014 and 31 December 2017 were identified from Hospital Episode Statistics data. Time series of quarterly activity were produced for the Cholecystectomy Quality Improvement Collaborative (Chole-QuIC) and all other acute National Health Service hospitals (control group). A negative binomial regression model was used to compare the proportion of patients having surgery within 8 days in the baseline and intervention periods. Results: Of 13 sites invited to join Chole-QuIC, 12 participated throughout the collaborative, which ran from October 2016 to January 2018. Of 7944 admissions, 1160 patients had a cholecystectomy within 8 days of admission, a significant improvement (P < 0·050) from baseline performance. This represented a relative change of 1·56 (95 per cent c.i. 1·38 to 1·75), compared with 1·08 for the control group. At the individual site level, eight of the 12 Chole-QuIC sites showed a significant improvement (P < 0·050), with four sites increasing their 8-day surgery rate to over 20 per cent of all emergency admissions, well above the mean of 15·3 per cent for control hospitals. Conclusion: A surgeon-led quality improvement collaborative approach improved care for patients requiring emergency cholecystectomy.

Antecedentes: La patología biliar aguda litiásica es una de las urgencias con más volumen de casos en cirugía general, con amplias variaciones en la calidad de la atención prestada en todo el Reino Unido. En este estudio de cohortes controlado se valoró si la participación en un enfoque colaborativo de mejora de la calidad disminuía el tiempo hasta la cirugía en pacientes con patología biliar aguda litiásica a menos de 8 días desde la presentación, de acuerdo con la guía nacional. Métodos: Se identificó a los pacientes que precisaron un ingreso hospitalario por patología biliar aguda en Inglaterra y Gales, del 1 de abril de 2014 al 31 de diciembre de 2017, a partir de datos de las estadísticas de episodios hospitalarios. Se crearon series temporales de actividad trimestral para Chole­QuIC y para todos los demás hospitales de agudos del NHS (grupo control). Se utilizó un modelo de regresión binomial negativa para comparar la proporción de pacientes sometidos a cirugía dentro de los primeros 8 días en los periodos basal y de intervención. Resultados: De los 13 sitios invitados a unirse a Chole­QuIC, 12 participaron durante toda la colaboración, que se desarrolló entre octubre de 2016 y enero de 2018. De los 7.944 ingresos, en 1.160 pacientes se realizó la colecistectomía dentro de los 8 días posteriores a su ingreso, una mejora significativa (P < 0,05) en comparación con el periodo previo a la intervención. Esto representó un cambio relativo de 1,56 (i.c. del 95%: 1,38 a 1,75) en comparación con 1,08 para el grupo de control. A nivel de cada uno de los hospitales, ocho de los 12 centros Chole­QuIC presentaron una mejora significativa (P < 0,05), y en cuatro de ellos el porcentaje de cirugía en 8 días aumentó a más del 20% de todos los ingresos urgentes, muy por encima del promedio de 15,3% para hospitales de control. Conclusión: Un enfoque colaborativo de mejora de la calidad dirigido por el cirujano mejoró la atención a los pacientes que precisan una colecistectomía urgente.

Long-term survival after endovascular and open repair of unruptured abdominal aortic aneurysm.

BACKGROUND: The aim of this study was to examine patterns of 10-year survival after elective repair of unruptured abdominal aortic aneurysms (AAAs) in different patient groups. METHODS: Patients having open repair or endovascular aneurysm repair (EVAR) in the English National Health Service between January 2006 and December 2015 were identified from Hospital Episode Statistics data. Postoperative survival among patients of different age and Royal College of Surgeons of England (RCS) modified Charlson co-morbidity score profiles were analysed using flexible parametric survival models. The relationship between patient characteristics and risk of rupture after repair was also analysed. RESULTS: Some 37 138 patients underwent elective AAA repair, of which 15 523 were open and 21 615 were endovascular. The 10-year mortality rate was 38·1 per cent for patients aged under 70 years, and the survival trajectories for open repair and EVAR were similar when patients had no RCS-modified Charlson co-morbidity. Among older patients or those with co-morbidity, the 10-year mortality rate rose, exceeding 70 per cent for patients aged 80 years. Mean survival times over 10 years for open repair and EVAR were often similar in subgroups of older and more co-morbid patients, but their survival trajectories became increasingly dissimilar, with open repair showing greater short-term risk within 6 months but lower 10-year mortality rates. The risk of rupture over 9 years was 3·4 per cent for EVAR and 0·9 per cent for open repair, and was weakly associated with patient factors. CONCLUSION: Long-term survival patterns after elective open repair and EVAR for unruptured AAA vary markedly across patients with different age and co-morbidity profiles.

ANTECEDENTES: El objetivo de este artículo fue examinar los patrones de supervivencia a 10 aáos tras reparación electiva de aneurismas de la aorta abdominal sin rotura (abdominal aortic aneurysms, AAA) en diferentes grupos de pacientes. MÉTODOS: Se identificaron pacientes sometidos a reparación abierta (open repair, OR) o reparación endovascular (endovascular aneurysm repair, EVAR) del aneurisma en el Sistema Nacional de Salud Inglés entre enero de 2006 y diciembre de 2015, a partir de los datos del Hospital Episode Statistics. Se analizaron la supervivencia postoperatoria entre los pacientes de diferentes edades y los perfiles de comorbilidad con la puntuación de Charlson modificada del Royal College of Surgeons of England (RCS) utilizando modelos de supervivencia paramétricos flexibles. También se analizó la relación entre las características de los pacientes y el riesgo de rotura tras la reparación. RESULTADOS: Un total de 37.138 pacientes fueron sometidos a reparaciones electivas de AAA, de las cuales 15.523 fueron reparaciones abiertas y 21.615 endovasculares. La mortalidad a los 10 aáos fue del 38% para los pacientes de edad inferior a los 70 aáos, y las curvas de supervivencia de la OR y EVAR fueron similares cuando los pacientes no tenían comorbilidad con el Charlson modificado del RCS. Entre los pacientes de edad avanzada y aquellos pacientes con comorbilidad, la mortalidad a los 10 aáos aumentó, excediendo el 70% para los pacientes de más de 80 aáos de edad. La media de los tiempos de supervivencia superior a 10 aáos para OR y EVAR fueron similares dentro de los subgrupos de pacientes de edad avanzada y más comorbilidad, pero las curvas de supervivencia se hicieron cada vez más diferentes, con la OR mostrando un mayor riesgo a corto plazo en los primeros 6 meses pero tasas de mortalidad a los 10 aáos más bajas. El riesgo de rotura mas allá de los 9 aáos fue 3,4% para EVAR y 0,9% para la reparación abierta, con una débil asociación con los factores inherentes a los pacientes. CONCLUSIÓN: Los patrones de supervivencia a largo plazo tras OR y EVAR electivas para AAA sin rotura varían notablemente entre pacientes con perfiles de edad y comorbilidad diferentes.

Brachytherapy in the Palliation of Oesophageal Cancer: Effective but Impractical?

Dysphagia in people with advanced oesophageal cancer can be treated by oesophageal stents, external beam radiotherapy (EBRT) and intraluminal brachytherapy. Despite guidelines recommending brachytherapy for patients with a predicted life expectancy exceeding 3 months, its uptake in the UK has been limited. Here we examine the strength of the evidence supporting the use of brachytherapy compared with oesophageal stents and EBRT and possible reasons for its limited uptake. Trials and observational studies suggest brachytherapy alone confers a benefit to patients, but its impact is less immediate than oesophageal stents; the evidence on effectiveness and value-for-money is limited. Moreover, stronger evidence will probably be insufficient to increase uptake, due to the extra complexity of delivery compared with stents and EBRT and a lack of experience among specialists.

Development and internal validation of a novel risk adjustment model for adult patients undergoing emergency laparotomy surgery: the National Emergency Laparotomy Audit risk model.

BACKGROUND: Among patients undergoing emergency laparotomy, 30-day postoperative mortality is around 10-15%. The risk of death among these patients, however, varies greatly because of their clinical characteristics. We developed a risk prediction model for 30-day postoperative mortality to enable better comparison of outcomes between hospitals. METHODS: We analysed data from the National Emergency Laparotomy Audit (NELA) on patients having an emergency laparotomy between December 2013 and November 2015. A prediction model was developed using multivariable logistic regression, with potential risk factors identified from existing prediction models, national guidelines, and clinical experts. Continuous risk factors were transformed if necessary to reflect their non-linear relationship with 30-day mortality. The performance of the model was assessed in terms of its calibration and discrimination. Interval validation was conducted using bootstrap resampling. RESULTS: There were 4458 (11.5%) deaths within 30-days among the 38 830 patients undergoing emergency laparotomy. Variables associated with death included (among others): age, blood pressure, heart rate, physiological variables, malignancy, and ASA physical status classification. The predicted risk of death among patients ranged from 1% to 50%. The model demonstrated excellent calibration and discrimination, with a C-statistic of 0.863 (95% confidence interval, 0.858-0.867). The model retained its high discrimination during internal validation, with a bootstrap derived C-statistic of 0.861. CONCLUSIONS: The NELA risk prediction model for emergency laparotomies discriminates well between low- and high-risk patients and is suitable for producing risk-adjusted provider mortality statistics.

Population-based study of mortality and major amputation following lower limb revascularization.

BACKGROUND: The aim of this study was to estimate separate risks of major lower limb amputation and death following revascularization for peripheral artery disease (PAD) using competing risks analysis. METHODS: Routinely collected data from Hospital Episode Statistics (HES) were used to identify patients who underwent endovascular or open lower limb revascularization for PAD in England from 2005 to 2015. The primary outcomes were major lower limb amputation and death within 5 years of revascularization. Cox proportional hazards and Fine-Gray competing risks regression were used to examine the competing risks of these outcomes. RESULTS: Some 164 845 patients underwent their first lower limb revascularization for PAD during the study interval. Most were men (64·6 per cent) and the median age was 71 (i.q.r. 62-78) years. Following endovascular revascularization, the 5-year cumulative incidence of amputation was 4·2 per cent in patients with intermittent claudication and 18·0 per cent in those with a record of tissue loss. The corresponding rates were 10·8 and 25·3 per cent respectively after open revascularization, and 8·1 and 25·0 per cent after combined procedures. The 5-year cumulative incidence of death varied from 24·5 to 39·8 per cent, depending on procedure type. Competing risks methods consistently produced lower estimates than standard methods. CONCLUSION: The 5-year risk of major amputation following lower limb revascularization for PAD appears lower than estimated previously. Patients undergoing revascularization for tissue loss and those who require an open procedure are at highest risk of limb loss.

Changes in volume, clinical practice and outcome after reorganisation of oesophago-gastric cancer care in England: A longitudinal observational study.

AIM: The centralisation of oesophago-gastric (O-G) cancer services in England was recommended in 2001, partly because of evidence for a volume-outcome effect for patients having surgery. This study investigated the changes in surgical services for O-G cancer and postoperative mortality since centralisation. METHODS: Patients with O-G cancer who had an oesophageal or gastric resection between April 2003 and March 2014 were identified in the national Hospital Episodes Statistics database. We derived information on the number of NHS trusts performing surgery, their surgical volume, and the number of consultants operating. Postoperative mortality was measured at 30 days, 90 days and 1 year. Logistic regression was used to examine how surgical outcomes were related to patient characteristics and organisational variables. RESULTS: During this period, 29 205 patients underwent an oesophagectomy or gastrectomy. The number of NHS trusts performing surgery decreased from 113 in 2003-04 to 43 in 2013-14, and the median annual surgical volume in NHS trusts rose from 21 to 55 patients. The annual 30 day, 90 day and 1 year mortality decreased from 7.4%, 11.3% and 29.7% in 2003-04 to 2.5%, 4.6% and 19.8% in 2013-14, respectively. There was no evidence that high-risk patients were not undergoing surgery. Changes in NHS trust volume explained only a small proportion of the observed fall in mortality. CONCLUSION: Centralisation of surgical services for O-G cancer in England has resulted in lower postoperative mortality. This cannot be explained by increased volume alone.

A step-wise approach to developing indicators to compare the performance of maternity units using hospital administrative data.

Hospital administrative data are attractive for comparing performance of maternity units because of their often large sample sizes, lack of selection bias and the relatively low costs of accessing these data compared with conducting primary data collection. However, using administrative data to develop indicators can also present challenges including varying data quality, the limited detail on clinical risk factors and a lack of structural and user experience measures. This review illustrates how to develop performance indicators for maternity units using hospital administrative data, including methods to address the challenges that administrative data pose. TWEETABLE ABSTRACT: How to develop maternity indicators from administrative data.

Predicting 30-day mortality after hip fracture surgery: Evaluation of the National Hip Fracture Database case-mix adjustment model.

OBJECTIVES: The National Hip Fracture Database (NHFD) publishes hospital-level risk-adjusted mortality rates following hip fracture surgery in England, Wales and Northern Ireland. The performance of the risk model used by the NHFD was compared with the widely-used Nottingham Hip Fracture Score. METHODS: Data from 94 hospitals on patients aged 60 to 110 who had hip fracture surgery between May 2013 and July 2013 were analysed. Data were linked to the Office for National Statistics (ONS) death register to calculate the 30-day mortality rate. Risk of death was predicted for each patient using the NHFD and Nottingham models in a development dataset using logistic regression to define the models' coefficients. This was followed by testing the performance of these refined models in a second validation dataset. RESULTS: The 30-day mortality rate was 5.36% in the validation dataset (n = 3861), slightly lower than the 6.40% in the development dataset (n = 4044). The NHFD and Nottingham models showed a slightly lower discrimination in the validation dataset compared with the development dataset, but both still displayed moderate discriminative power (c-statistic for NHFD = 0.71, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.67 to 0.74; Nottingham model = 0.70, 95% CI 0.68 to 0.75). Both models defined similar ranges of predicted mortality risk (1% to 18%) in assessment of calibration. CONCLUSIONS: Both models have limitations in predicting mortality for individual patients after hip fracture surgery, but the NHFD risk adjustment model performed as well as the widely-used Nottingham prognostic tool and is therefore a reasonable alternative for risk adjustment in the United Kingdom hip fracture population.Cite this article: Bone Joint Res 2017;6:550-556.

Association between age and access to immediate breast reconstruction in women undergoing mastectomy for breast cancer.

BACKGROUND: National guidelines state that patients with breast cancer undergoing mastectomy in England should be offered immediate breast reconstruction (IR), unless precluded by their fitness for surgery or the need for adjuvant therapies. METHODS: A national study investigated factors that influenced clinicians' decision to offer IR, and collected data on case mix, operative procedures and reconstructive decision-making among women with breast cancer having a mastectomy with or without IR in the English National Health Service between 1 January 2008 and 31 March 2009. Multivariable logistic regression was used to examine the relationship between whether or not women were offered IR and their characteristics (tumour burden, functional status, planned radiotherapy, planned chemotherapy, perioperative fitness, obesity, smoking status and age). RESULTS: Of 13 225 women, 6458 (48·8 per cent) were offered IR. Among factors the guidelines highlighted as relevant to decision-making, the three most strongly associated with the likelihood of an offer were tumour burden, planned radiotherapy and performance status. Depending on the combination of their values, the probability of an IR offer ranged from 7·4 to 85·1 per cent. A regression model that included all available factors discriminated well between whether or not women were offered IR (c-statistic 0·773), but revealed that increasing age was associated with a fall in the probability of an IR offer beyond that expected from older patients' tumour and co-morbidity characteristics. CONCLUSION: Clinicians are broadly following guidance on the offer of IR, except with respect to patients' age.

National trends in immediate and delayed post-mastectomy reconstruction procedures in England: A seven-year population-based cohort study.

INTRODUCTION: Little is known about post-mastectomy reconstruction procedural trends in women diagnosed with breast cancer in England. Our aim was to examine patterns of immediate and delayed reconstruction procedures over time and within regions. METHODS: Women with breast cancer who underwent unilateral index immediate or delayed post-mastectomy reconstruction between 2007 and 2014 were identified using the National Hospital Episode Statistics database. Women were grouped into categories based on the type of reconstruction procedure. Adjusted rates of implant and free flap reconstructions were then calculated across regional Cancer Networks using a regression model to adjust for age, disease, comorbidities, ethnicity, and deprivation. RESULTS: Between 2007 and 2014, 21 862 women underwent immediate reconstruction and 8653 delayed reconstruction. Immediate implant reconstruction increased from 30% to 54%, and immediate free flap reconstruction from 17% to 21%. Adjusted immediate implant and free flap proportions ranged from 17 to 68% and 9-63%, respectively, across regions. Free flaps became more common in the delayed setting, rising from 25% to 42%. However, adjusted rates ranged from 23% to 74% across regions. Networks with high/low rates of free flaps for immediate tended to have high/low rates for delayed reconstruction. CONCLUSION: There has been a substantial increase in the use of immediate implant reconstruction in England. In comparison, there has been an increasing use of autologous free flap reconstruction for delayed procedures. Significant regional variation exists in the type of reconstruction performed, and these patterns need to be examined to determine if variation is related to service provision and/or capacity barriers.

Surveillance of Gram-negative bacteria: impact of variation in current European laboratory reporting practice on apparent multidrug resistance prevalence in paediatric bloodstream isolates.

This study evaluates whether estimated multidrug resistance (MDR) levels are dependent on the design of the surveillance system when using routine microbiological data. We used antimicrobial resistance data from the Antibiotic Resistance and Prescribing in European Children (ARPEC) project. The MDR status of bloodstream isolates of Escherichia coli, Klebsiella pneumoniae and Pseudomonas aeruginosa was defined using European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC)-endorsed standardised algorithms (non-susceptible to at least one agent in three or more antibiotic classes). Assessment of MDR status was based on specified combinations of antibiotic classes reportable as part of routine surveillance activities. The agreement between MDR status and resistance to specific pathogen-antibiotic class combinations (PACCs) was assessed. Based on all available antibiotic susceptibility testing, the proportion of MDR isolates was 31% for E. coli, 30% for K. pneumoniae and 28% for P. aeruginosa isolates. These proportions fell to 9, 14 and 25%, respectively, when based only on classes collected by current ECDC surveillance methods. Resistance percentages for specific PACCs were lower compared with MDR percentages, except for P. aeruginosa. Accordingly, MDR detection based on these had low sensitivity for E. coli (2-41%) and K. pneumoniae (21-85%). Estimates of MDR percentages for Gram-negative bacteria are strongly influenced by the antibiotic classes reported. When a complete set of results requested by the algorithm is not available, inclusion of classes frequently tested as part of routine clinical care greatly improves the detection of MDR. Resistance to individual PACCs should not be considered reflective of MDR percentages in Enterobacteriaceae.

Editor's Choice - Delays to Surgery and Procedural Risks Following Carotid Endarterectomy in the UK National Vascular Registry.

OBJECTIVE: Guidelines recommend that patients suffering an ischaemic transient ischaemic attack (TIA) or stroke caused by carotid artery stenosis should undergo carotid endarterectomy (CEA) within 14 days. METHOD: The degree to which UK vascular units met this standard was examined and whether rapid interventions were associated with procedural risks. The study analysed patients undergoing CEA between January 2009 and December 2014 from 100 UK NHS hospitals. Data were collected on patient characteristics, intervals of time from symptoms to surgery, and 30-day postoperative outcomes. The relationship between outcomes and time from symptom to surgery was evaluated using multilevel multivariable logistic regression. RESULTS: In 23,235 patients, the median time from TIA/stroke to CEA decreased over time, from 22 days (IQR 10-56) in 2009 to 12 days (IQR 7-26) in 2014. The proportion of patients treated within 14 days increased from 37% to 58%. This improvement was produced by shorter times across the care pathway: symptoms to referral, from medical review to being seen by a vascular surgeon, and then to surgery. The spread of the median time from symptom to surgery among NHS hospitals shrank between 2009 and 2013 but then grew slightly. Low-, medium-, and high-volume NHS hospitals all improved their performance similarly. Performing CEA within 48 h of symptom onset was associated with a small increase in the 30-day stroke and death rate: 3.1% (0-2 days) compared with 2.0% (3-7 days); adjusted odds ratio 1.64 (95% CI 1.04-2.59) but not with longer delays. CONCLUSIONS: The delay from symptom to CEA in symptomatic patients with ipsilateral 50-99% carotid stenoses has reduced substantially, although 42% of patients underwent CEA after the recommended 14 days. The risk of stroke after CEA was low, but there may be a small increase in risk during the first 48 h after symptoms.

National trends and regional variation in immediate breast reconstruction rates.

BACKGROUND: Previous studies have identified variation in immediate reconstruction (IR) rates following mastectomy for breast cancer across English regions during a period of service reorganization, a national audit and changing guidelines. This study analysed current variations in regional rates of IR in England. METHODS: Patient-level data from Hospital Episode Statistics were used to define a cohort of women who underwent primary mastectomy for invasive or in situ breast carcinoma in English National Health Service (NHS) hospitals between April 2000 and March 2014. A time series of IR rates was calculated nationally and within regions in 28 cancer networks. Regional IR rates before and after the national audit were compared, using logistic regression to adjust for patient demographics, tumour type, co-morbidity and year of mastectomy. RESULTS: Between 2000 and 2014, a total of 167 343 women had a mastectomy. The national IR rate was stable at around 10 per cent until 2005; it then increased to 23·3 per cent by 2013-2014. Preaudit (before January 2008), adjusted cancer network-level IR rates ranged from 4·3 to 22·6 per cent. Postaudit (after April 2009) adjusted IR rates ranged from 13·1 to 36·7 per cent, with 20 networks having IR rates between 15 and 24 per cent. The degree of change was not greatest amongst those that started with the lowest IR rates, with four networks with the largest absolute increase also starting with relatively high IR rates. CONCLUSION: The national IR rate increased throughout the study period. Substantial regional variation remains, although considerable time has elapsed since a period of service reorganization, guideline revision and a national audit.