Early sustained recovery following first episode psychosis: Evidence from the AESOP10 follow-up study.

OBJECTIVE: To describe the characteristics of individuals with early sustained recovery following first episode psychosis. METHODS: Individuals with a first episode psychosis were followed-up for ten years. Comparisons were made between those with Early Sustained Recovery and those with Other Course types. RESULTS: Of 345 individuals, n=43 (12.5%) had Early Sustained Recovery. They were more likely than those with Other Course types to be female (OR=2.45; 95% CI: 1.25-4.81); employed (OR=2.39; 95% CI: 1.22-4.69); in a relationship (OR=2.68; 95% CI: 1.35-5.32); have a short DUP (OR=2.86; 95% CI: 1.37-5.88); and have a diagnosis other than schizophrenia, particularly mania (OR=6.39; 95% CI: 2.52-16.18) or brief psychosis (OR=3.64; 95% CI: 1.10-12.10). CONCLUSIONS: Sustained recovery from first episode psychosis occurs in a minority.

Ten-year outcomes in first episode psychotic major depression patients compared with schizophrenia and bipolar patients.

We aimed to investigate long-term outcomes in psychotic major depression patients compared to schizophrenia and bipolar/manic psychosis patients, in an incidence sample, while accounting for diagnostic change. Based on Aetiology and Ethnicity in Schizophrenia and Other Psychoses (ÆSOP and ÆSOP-10), a first episode psychosis cohort was followed-up 10years after first presentation. The Schedules for Clinical Assessment in Neuropsychiatry, WHO Life Chart and Global Assessment of Functioning were used to assess clinical, social and service use outcomes. Seventy-two PMD patients, 218 schizophrenia patients and 70 psychotic bipolar disorder/mania patients were identified at baseline. Differences in outcome between PMD and bipolar patients based on baseline and lifetime diagnosis were minimal. Differences in clinical, social and service use outcomes between PMD and schizophrenia were more substantial with PMD patients showing better outcomes on most variables. However, there was some weak evidence (albeit not quite statistically significant at p<0.05) based on lifetime diagnoses that PMD patients were more likely to attempt suicide (OR 2.31, CI 0.98-5.42, p0.055) and self-harm (OR 2.34, CI 0.97-5.68, p0.060). PMD patients have better social and service use outcomes compared to people with schizophrenia, but may be more likely to attempt suicide or self-harm. This unique profile is important for clinicians to consider in any risk assessment.

Biological and psychosocial risk factors for psychotic major depression.

AIMS: Few studies have investigated risk factors for psychotic major depression (PMD). We aimed to investigate the biological and psychosocial risk factors associated with PMD compared with other psychotic disorders. METHODS: Based on the aetiology and ethnicity in schizophrenia and other psychoses (ÆSOP) study, we used a case-control study to identify and recruit, at baseline and 10-year follow-up, all first episode cases of psychosis, presenting for the first time to specialist mental health services in defined catchment areas in the UK. Population-based controls were recruited from the same areas. Data were collected on: sociodemographics; social isolation; childhood adversity; life events; minor physical anomalies; and neurological soft signs. RESULTS: Living alone (aOR = 2.26, CI = 1.21-4.23), basic level qualification (aOR = 2.89, CI = 1.08-7.74), being unemployed (aOR = 2.12, CI = 1.13-3.96), having contact with friends less than monthly (aOR = 4.24, CI = 1.62-11.14), having no close confidants (aOR = 4.71, CI = 2.08-10.68), having experienced childhood adversity (aOR = 2.57, CI = 1.02-6.44), family history of mental illness (aOR = 10.68, CI = 5.06-22.52), family history of psychosis (aOR = 12.85, CI = 5.24-31.51), and having more neurological soft signs (aOR = 1.15, CI = 1.07-1.24) were all associated with a follow-up diagnosis of PMD and schizophrenia. Few variables associated with PMD were also associated with a diagnosis of bipolar disorder. Minor physical anomalies were associated with a follow-up diagnosis of schizophrenia and bipolar disorder, but not PMD. CONCLUSIONS: Risk factors associated with PMD appear to overlap with those for schizophrenia, but less so for bipolar disorder. Future work on the differential aetiology of PMD, from other psychoses is needed to find the 'specifier' between PMD and other psychoses. Future research on aetiology in PMD, and perhaps other psychoses, should account for diagnostic change.

Psychometric precision in phenotype definition is a useful step in molecular genetic investigation of psychiatric disorders.

Affective disorders are highly heritable, but few genetic risk variants have been consistently replicated in molecular genetic association studies. The common method of defining psychiatric phenotypes in molecular genetic research is either a summation of symptom scores or binary threshold score representing the risk of diagnosis. Psychometric latent variable methods can improve the precision of psychiatric phenotypes, especially when the data structure is not straightforward. Using data from the British 1946 birth cohort, we compared summary scores with psychometric modeling based on the General Health Questionnaire (GHQ-28) scale for affective symptoms in an association analysis of 27 candidate genes (249 single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs)). The psychometric method utilized a bi-factor model that partitioned the phenotype variances into five orthogonal latent variable factors, in accordance with the multidimensional data structure of the GHQ-28 involving somatic, social, anxiety and depression domains. Results showed that, compared with the summation approach, the affective symptoms defined by the bi-factor psychometric model had a higher number of associated SNPs of larger effect sizes. These results suggest that psychometrically defined mental health phenotypes can reflect the dimensions of complex phenotypes better than summation scores, and therefore offer a useful approach in genetic association investigations.

Diagnostic change 10 years after a first episode of psychosis.

BACKGROUND: A lack of an aetiologically based nosology classification has contributed to instability in psychiatric diagnoses over time. This study aimed to examine the diagnostic stability of psychosis diagnoses using data from an incidence sample of psychosis cases, followed up after 10 years and to examine those baseline variables which were associated with diagnostic change. METHOD: Data were examined from the ÆSOP and ÆSOP-10 studies, an incidence and follow-up study, respectively, of a population-based cohort of first-episode psychosis cases from two sites. Diagnosis was assigned using ICD-10 and DSM-IV-TR. Diagnostic change was examined using prospective and retrospective consistency. Baseline variables associated with change were examined using logistic regression and likelihood ratio tests. RESULTS: Slightly more (59.6%) cases had the same baseline and lifetime ICD-10 diagnosis compared with DSM-IV-TR (55.3%), but prospective and retrospective consistency was similar. Schizophrenia, psychotic bipolar disorder and drug-induced psychosis were more prospectively consistent than other diagnoses. A substantial number of cases with other diagnoses at baseline (ICD-10, n = 61; DSM-IV-TR, n = 76) were classified as having schizophrenia at 10 years. Many variables were associated with change to schizophrenia but few with overall change in diagnosis. CONCLUSIONS: Diagnoses other than schizophrenia should to be regarded as potentially provisional.

Schizophrenia and other psychotic disorders in Caribbean-born migrants and their descendants in England: systematic review and meta-analysis of incidence rates, 1950-2013.

PURPOSE: Increased risk of schizophrenia and other psychotic disorders among black Caribbean migrants and their descendants have been described since the 1960s. It remains unclear whether this risk varies over time, between rural and urban areas, or according to methodological artefact. METHODS: We conducted a systematic review of the incidence of adult-onset psychotic disorders in black Caribbean groups relative to the baseline population in England, published 1950-2013. Subject to sufficient data (N ≥ 5) we used random effects meta-analyses to estimate pooled incidence rates (IR) and rate ratios (IRR) of seven psychotic disorder outcomes, and meta-regression to inspect whether any variation was attributable to study-level methodological features, including case ascertainment, denominator reliability, choice of baseline population and study quality. RESULTS: Eighteen studies met inclusion for review. Sixteen demonstrated statistically significant elevated incidence rates in the black Caribbean group, present across all major psychotic disorders, including schizophrenia and bipolar disorder. Methodological quality increased over time (p = 0.01), but was not associated with estimated IR or IRR. For schizophrenia (N = 11 studies) the pooled IRR in the black Caribbean group was 4.7 (95 % CI 3.9-5.7) relative to the baseline; no evidence of publication bias was observed. We found weak evidence to suggest schizophrenia IRRs were smaller from studies in more urban settings (odds ratio 0.98; 95 % CI 0.96-1.00; p = 0.06). CONCLUSIONS: Higher incidence rates of psychotic disorders have been present for more than 60 years amongst black Caribbean ethnic groups in England, despite improved study methodologies over time. Aetiological explanations appear to more parsimoniously account for this excess than methodological biases.

Factors of psychological distress: clinical value, measurement substance, and methodological artefacts.

PURPOSE: Psychometric models and statistical techniques are cornerstones of research into latent structures of specific psychopathology and general mental health. We discuss "pivot points" for future research efforts from a psychometric epidemiology perspective, emphasising sampling and selection processes of both indicators that guide data collection as well as samples that are confronted with them. METHOD: First, we discuss how a theoretical model of psychopathology determines which empirical indicators (questions, diagnoses, etc.) and modelling methods are appropriate to test its implications. Second, we deal with how different research designs introduce different (co-)variances between indicators, potentially leading to a different understanding of latent structures. Third, we discuss widening the range of statistical models available within the "psychometrics class": the inclusion of categorical approaches can help to enlighten the debate on the structure of psychopathology and agreement on a minimal set of models might lead to greater convergence between studies. Fourth, we deal with aspects of methodology that introduce spurious (co-)variance in latent structure analysis (response styles, clustered data) and differential item functioning to gather more detailed information and to guard against over-generalisation of results, which renders assessments unfair. CONCLUSIONS: Building on established insights, future research efforts should be more explicit about their theoretical understanding of psychopathology and how the analysis of a given indicator-respondent set informs this theoretical model. A coherent treatment of theoretical assumptions, indicators, and samples holds the key to building a comprehensive account of the latent structures of different types of psychopathology and mental health in general.

Mood, anxiety and psychotic phenomena measure a common psychopathological factor.

BACKGROUND: Psychotic phenomena are common in the general population but are excluded from diagnostic criteria for mild to moderate depression and anxiety despite their co-occurrence and shared risk factors. We used item response theory modelling to examine whether the co-occurrence of depressive, anxiety and psychotic phenomena is best explained by: (1) a single underlying factor; (2) two separate, uncorrelated factors; (3) two separate yet linked factors; or (4) two separate domains along with an underlying 'common mental distress' (CMD) factor. We defined where, along any latent continuum, the psychopathological items contributed most information. METHOD: We performed a secondary analysis of cross-sectional, item-level information from measures of depression, anxiety and psychotic experiences in 6617 participants aged 13 years from the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC) birth cohort and 977 participants aged 18 years from the ROOTS schools-based sample. We replicated results from one sample in the other and validated the latent factors against an earlier parental measure of mental state. RESULTS: In both cohorts depression, anxiety and psychotic items were best represented as a bi-factor model with a single, unitary CMD factor on which psychotic items conveyed information about the more severe end (model 4); residual variation remained for psychotic items. The CMD factor was significantly associated with the prior parental measure. CONCLUSIONS: Psychotic phenomena co-occur with depression and anxiety in teenagers and may be a marker of severity in a single, unitary dimension of CMD. Psychotic phenomena should be routinely included in epidemiological assessments of psychiatric morbidity, otherwise the most severe symptomatology remains unmeasured.

Reappraising the long-term course and outcome of psychotic disorders: the AESOP-10 study.

BACKGROUND: Studies of the long-term course and outcome of psychoses tend to focus on cohorts of prevalent cases. Such studies bias samples towards those with poor outcomes, which may distort our understanding of prognosis. Long-term follow-up studies of epidemiologically robust first-episode samples are rare. METHOD: AESOP-10 is a 10-year follow-up study of 557 individuals with a first episode of psychosis initially identified in two areas in the UK (South East London and Nottingham). Detailed information was collated on course and outcome in three domains (clinical, social and service use) from case records, informants and follow-up interviews. RESULTS: At follow-up, of 532 incident cases identified, at baseline 37 (7%) had died, 29 (6%) had emigrated and eight (2%) were excluded. Of the remaining 458, 412 (90%) were traced and some information on follow-up was collated for 387 (85%). Most cases (265, 77%) experienced at least one period of sustained remission; at follow-up, 141 (46%) had been symptom free for at least 2 years. A majority (208, 72%) of cases had been employed for less than 25% of the follow-up period. The median number of hospital admissions, including at first presentation, was 2 [interquartile range (IQR) 1-4]; a majority (299, 88%) were admitted a least once and a minority (21, 6%) had 10 or more admissions. Overall, outcomes were worse for those with a non-affective diagnosis, for men and for those from South East London. CONCLUSIONS: Sustained periods of symptom remission are usual following first presentation to mental health services for psychosis, including for those with a non-affective disorder; almost half recover.

Early development, stress and depression across the life course: pathways to depression in a national British birth cohort.

BACKGROUND: The aetiology of depression is multifactorial, with biological, cognitive and environmental factors across the life course influencing risk of a depressive episode. There is inconsistent evidence linking early life development and later depression. The aim of this study was to investigate relationships between low birthweight (LBW), infant neurodevelopment, and acute and chronic stress as components in pathways to depression in adulthood. METHOD: The sample included 4627 members of the National Survey of Health and Development (NSHD; the 1946 British birth cohort). Weight at birth, age of developmental milestones, economic deprivation in early childhood, acute stressors in childhood and adulthood, and socio-economic status (SES) in adulthood were assessed for their direct and indirect effects on adolescent (ages 13 and 15 years) and adult (ages 36, 43 and 53 years) measures of depressive symptoms in a structural equation modelling (SEM) framework. A structural equation model developed to incorporate all variables exhibited excellent model fit according to several indices. RESULTS: The path of prediction from birthweight to age of developmental milestones to adolescent depression/anxiety to adult depression/anxiety was significant (p < 0.001). Notably, direct paths from birthweight (p = 0.25) and age of developmental milestones (p = 0.23) to adult depression were not significant. Childhood deprivation and stressors had important direct and indirect effects on depression. Stressors in adulthood were strongly associated with adult depression. CONCLUSIONS: Depression in adulthood is influenced by an accumulation of stressors across the life course, including many that originate in the first years of life. Effects of early-life development on mental health appear by adolescence.

General distress, hopelessness-suicidal ideation and worrying in adolescence: concurrent and predictive validity of a symptom-level bifactor model for clinical diagnoses.

BACKGROUND: Clinical disorders often share common symptoms and aetiological factors. Bifactor models acknowledge the role of an underlying general distress component and more specific sub-domains of psychopathology which specify the unique components of disorders over and above a general factor. METHODS: A bifactor model jointly calibrated data on subjective distress from The Mood and Feelings Questionnaire and the Revised Children's Manifest Anxiety Scale. The bifactor model encompassed a general distress factor, and specific factors for (a) hopelessness-suicidal ideation, (b) generalised worrying and (c) restlessness-fatigue at age 14 which were related to lifetime clinical diagnoses established by interviews at ages 14 (concurrent validity) and current diagnoses at 17 years (predictive validity) in a British population sample of 1159 adolescents. RESULTS: Diagnostic interviews confirmed the validity of a symptom-level bifactor model. The underlying general distress factor was a powerful but non-specific predictor of affective, anxiety and behaviour disorders. The specific factors for hopelessness-suicidal ideation and generalised worrying contributed to predictive specificity. Hopelessness-suicidal ideation predicted concurrent and future affective disorder; generalised worrying predicted concurrent and future anxiety, specifically concurrent generalised anxiety disorders. Generalised worrying was negatively associated with behaviour disorders. LIMITATIONS: The analyses of gender differences and the prediction of specific disorders was limited due to a low frequency of disorders other than depression. CONCLUSIONS: The bifactor model was able to differentiate concurrent and predict future clinical diagnoses. This can inform the development of targeted as well as non-specific interventions for prevention and treatment of different disorders.

Lifetime affect and midlife cognitive function: prospective birth cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Recurrent affective problems are predictive of cognitive impairment, but the timing and directionality, and the nature of the cognitive impairment, are unclear. AIMS: To test prospective associations between life-course affective symptoms and cognitive function in late middle age. METHOD: A total of 1668 men and women were drawn from the Medical Research Council National Survey of Health and Development (the British 1946 birth cohort). Longitudinal affective symptoms spanning age 13-53 years served as predictors; outcomes consisted of self-reported memory problems at 60-64 years and decline in memory and information processing from age 53 to 60-64 years. RESULTS: Regression analyses revealed no clear pattern of association between longitudinal affective symptoms and decline in cognitive test scores, after adjusting for gender, childhood cognitive ability, education and midlife socioeconomic status. In contrast, affective symptoms were strongly, diffusely and independently associated with self-reported memory problems. CONCLUSIONS: Affective symptoms are more clearly associated with self-reported memory problems in late midlife than with objectively measured cognitive performance.

Usefulness of EQ-5D for evaluation of health-related quality of life in young adults with first-episode psychosis.

PURPOSE: To evaluate the psychometric properties of the EQ-5D and the usefulness of this instrument in psychiatric practice as a measure of health-related quality of life (HRQoL) in a sample of young adults with first-episode psychosis. METHODS: The validity of individual questionnaire items is studied using an Item Response/Latent Trait Theory modeling approach. Sensitivity of response patterns on EQ-5D items to particular diagnostic subtypes of psychosis is investigated using a finite mixture modeling approach through latent class analysis. Finally, a structural equation modeling framework is used to study differential item functioning via a multigroup approach. RESULTS: Results suggest that the data closely correspond to the Rasch Rating Scale Model, and therefore that EQ-5D latent scores are equal interval measures. Despite comprising relatively few items, the instrument yields reliable measures of HRQoL for group comparisons and cost-effectiveness evaluation, but EQ-5D score is too imprecise for the assessment of HRQoL for clinical purposes at the individual level. A significant relationship was found between EQ-5D responses and type of psychosis due to inclusion of item anxiety/depression in EQ-5D. Two items (anxiety/depression, functioning in usual activities) showed an ethnicity bias. CONCLUSIONS: Psychometric evidence confirmed the EQ-5D to be a valid, interval measure that is scalable according to Rasch principles.

The involvement of parents in healthcare decisions where adult children are at risk of lacking decision-making capacity: a qualitative study of treatment decisions in epilepsy.

BACKGROUND: Patients with intellectual disabilities (ID) receive health care by proxy. It is family members and/or paid support staff who must recognise health problems, communicate with clinicians, and report the benefits, if any, of a particular treatment. At the same time international and national statutes protect and promote the right of people with disabilities to access the highest attainable standards of health on the basis of free and informed consent. METHODS: To consider the role of parent-proxies in the management of epilepsy in adult children with ID who are at risk of lacking capacity to make decisions about their health care we interviewed 21 mothers. FINDINGS: These mothers are not pursuing changes in treatment that might improve their son or daughter's epilepsy, nor are they willing to countenance changes in treatment. Clinicians concerned to build and sustain therapeutic alliances with these mothers, our evidence suggests, may well avoid going against their wishes. DISCUSSION: Our research highlights the interactional contingencies of a hitherto neglected three-way clinical relationship comprising parent-proxy, an adult at risk of lacking decision-making capacity, and a treating clinician. This is a relationship, our findings suggest, where little importance is attached to either patient consent, or involvement in treatment decisions.

Association between pubertal development and depressive symptoms in girls from a UK cohort.

BACKGROUND: It is unclear whether pubertal status or timing of puberty explains the increase in depressive symptoms in girls during adolescence. METHOD: This is a longitudinal study based on 2506 girls from the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC). Self-reported depressive symptoms at 10.5, 13 and 14 years were assessed using the Short Mood and Feelings Questionnaire (SMFQ). Pubertal status (Tanner breast and pubic hair stage) and timing of menarche were derived from questionnaires administered from age 8 to 14 years. We used multivariable regression models to examine the relative contributions of pubertal status and timing in accounting for increases in level of depressive symptoms at 14 years. RESULTS: With increasing age, the association between breast development and depressive symptoms strengthened. Pubertal status (breast stage), rather than timing of menarche, was independently associated with depressive symptoms at 14 years. There was strong evidence for a linear relationship between breast stage and depressive symptoms at 14 years [increase in 0.17 S.D. (range 0.10-0.24) of depressive symptoms for advancement of each breast stage]. CONCLUSIONS: Depressive symptoms in mid-adolescence were more strongly influenced by breast stage than timing of menarche. This could imply that the female rise in depression during adolescence is due to increasing estrogen levels, and might explain why the gender difference in rates of depression emerges at this stage. Future research should be aimed at identifying the mechanism of action of pubertal change, including direct effects of pubertal hormones and indirect effects mediated by psychosocial factors.

Measuring patients' views: a bifactor model of distinct patient-reported outcomes in psychosis.

BACKGROUND: Patient-reported outcomes (PROs) are widely used for evaluating the care of patients with psychosis. Previous studies have reported a considerable overlap in the information captured by measures designed to assess different outcomes. This may impair the validity of PROs and makes an a priori choice of the most appropriate measure difficult when assessing treatment benefits for patients. We aimed to investigate the extent to which four widely established PROs [subjective quality of life (SQOL), needs for care, treatment satisfaction and the therapeutic relationship] provide distinct information independent from this overlap. METHOD: Analyses, based on item response modelling, were conducted on measures of SQOL, needs for care, treatment satisfaction and the therapeutic relationship in two large samples of patients with psychosis. RESULTS: In both samples, a bifactor model matched the data best, suggesting sufficiently strong concept factors to allow for four distinct PRO scales. These were independent from overlap across measures due to a general appraisal tendency of patients for positive or negative ratings and shared domain content. The overlap partially impaired the ability of items to discriminate precisely between patients from lower and higher PRO levels. We found that widely used sum scores were strongly affected by the general appraisal tendency. CONCLUSIONS: Four widely established PROs can provide distinct information independent from overlap across measures. The findings may inform the use and further development of PROs in the evaluation of treatments for psychosis.

Cognitive behaviour therapy for improving social recovery in psychosis: a report from the ISREP MRC Trial Platform Study (Improving Social Recovery in Early Psychosis).

BACKGROUND: This study reports on a preliminary evaluation of a cognitive behavioural intervention to improve social recovery among young people in the early stages of psychosis showing persistent signs of poor social functioning and unemployment. The study was a single-blind randomized controlled trial (RCT) with two arms, 35 participants receiving cognitive behaviour therapy (CBT) plus treatment as usual (TAU), and 42 participants receiving TAU alone. Participants were assessed at baseline and post-treatment. METHOD: Seventy-seven participants were recruited from secondary mental health teams after presenting with a history of unemployment and poor social outcome. The cognitive behavioural intervention was delivered over a 9-month period with a mean of 12 sessions. The primary outcomes were weekly hours spent in constructive economic and structured activity. A range of secondary and tertiary outcomes were also assessed. RESULTS: Intention-to-treat analysis on the combined affective and non-affective psychosis sample showed no significant impact of treatment on primary or secondary outcomes. However, analysis of interactions by diagnostic subgroup was significant for secondary symptomatic outcomes on the Positive and Negative Syndrome Scale (PANSS) [F(1, 69)=3.99, p=0.05]. Subsequent exploratory analyses within diagnostic subgroups revealed clinically important and significant improvements in weekly hours in constructive and structured activity and PANSS scores among people with non-affective psychosis. CONCLUSIONS: The primary study comparison provided no clear evidence for the benefit of CBT in a combined sample of patients. However, planned analyses with diagnostic subgroups showed important benefits for CBT among people with non-affective psychosis who have social recovery problems. These promising results need to be independently replicated in a larger, multi-centre RCT.

Is the incidence of psychotic disorder in decline? Epidemiological evidence from two decades of research.

BACKGROUND: It is unclear whether the incidence of first episode psychoses is in decline. We had the opportunity to determine whether incidence had changed over a 20-year period in a single setting, and test whether this could be explained by demographic or clinical changes. METHODS: The entire population at-risk aged 16-54 in Nottingham over three time periods (1978-80, 1993-95 and 1997-99) were followed up. All participants presenting with an ICD-9/10 first episode psychosis were included. The remainder of the population at-risk formed the denominator. Standardized incidence rates were calculated at each time period with possible change over time assessed via Poisson regression. We studied six outcomes: substance-induced psychoses, schizophrenia, other non-affective psychoses, manic psychoses, depressive psychoses and all psychotic disorders combined. RESULTS: Three hundred and forty-seven participants with a first episode psychosis during 1.2 million person-years of follow-up over three time periods were identified. The incidence of non-affective or affective psychoses had not changed over time following standardization for age, sex and ethnicity. We observed a linear increase in the incidence of substance-induced psychosis, per annum, over time (incidence rate ratios: 1.15; 95% CI 1.05-1.25). This could not be explained by longitudinal changes in the age, sex and ethnic structure of the population at-risk. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggest psychotic disorders are not in decline, though there has been a change in the syndromal presentation of non-affective disorders, away from schizophrenia towards other non-affective psychoses. The incidence of substance-induced psychosis has increased, consistent with increases in substance toxicity over time, rather than changes in the prevalence or vulnerability to substance misuse. Increased clinical and popular awareness of substance misuse could also not be excluded.

Multilevel investigation of variation in HoNOS ratings by mental health professionals: a naturalistic study of consecutive referrals.

Episodes of mental healthcare in specialist psychiatric services often begin with the assessment of clinical and psychosocial needs of patients by healthcare professionals. Particularly for patients with complex needs or severe problems, ratings of clinical and social functioning at the start of each episode of care may serve as a baseline against which subsequent measures can be compared. Currently, little is known about service variations in such assessments on referrals from primary care. We set out to quantify variability in initial assessments performed by healthcare professionals in three CMHTs in Bristol (UK) using the Health of the Nation Outcome Scales (HoNOS). We tested the hypothesis that variations in HoNOS total and sub-scale scores are related to referral source (general practices), healthcare assessor (in CMHTs) and the assessor's professional group. Statistical analysis was performed using multilevel variance components models with cross-classified random effects. We found that variation due to assessor substantially exceeded that due to referral source (general practices). Furthermore, patient variance differed by assessor profession for the HoNOS--Impairment scores. Assessor variance differed by assessor profession for the HoNOS--Social scores. As HoNOS total and subscale scores show much larger variation by assessor than by referral source, investigations of HoNOS scores must take assessors into account. Services should implement and evaluate interdisciplinary training to improve consistency in use of rating thresholds; such initiatives could be evaluated using these extensions of multilevel models. Future research should aim to integrate routine diagnostic data with continuous outcomes to address selection effects (of patients to assessors) better.

Effects of verbal working memory load on corticocortical connectivity modeled by path analysis of functional magnetic resonance imaging data.

We investigated the hypothesis that there are load-related changes in the integrated function of frontoparietal working memory networks. Functional magnetic resonance imaging time-series data from 10 healthy volunteers performing a graded n-back verbal working memory task were modeled using path analysis. Seven generically activated regions were included in the model: left/right middle frontal gyri (L/R MFG), left/right inferior frontal gyri (L/R IFG), left/right posterior parietal cortex (L/R PPC), and supplementary motor area (SMA). The model provided a good fit to the 1-back (chi(2) = 7.04, df = 8, P = 0.53) and 2-back conditions (chi(2) = 9.35, df = 8, P = 0.31) but not for the 3-back condition (chi(2) = 20.60, df = 8, P = 0.008). Model parameter estimates were compared overall among conditions: there was a significant difference overall between 1-back and 2-back conditions (chi(2)(diff) = 74.77, df = 20, P < 0.001) and also between 2-back and 3-back conditions (chi(2)(diff) = 96.28, df = 20, P < 0.001). Path coefficients between LIFG and LPPC were significantly different from zero in both 1-back and 2-back conditions; in the 2-back condition, additional paths from LIFG to LPPC via SMA and to RMFG from LMFG and LPPC were also nonzero. This study demonstrated a significant change in functional integration of a neurocognitive network for working memory as a correlate of increased load. Enhanced inferior frontoparietal and prefrontoprefrontal connectivity was observed as a correlate of increasing memory load, which may reflect greater demand for maintenance and executive processes, respectively.